Yeah, 2024 isn't a stretch at all... I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect a normal prospect in his position (absolutely mashing AA) to get at least a cup of coffee by the end of the year. I usually view it as: currently playing in AA, mid-season promotion to AAA, late season call-up if he keeps performing.
But given the ups and downs of the last couple years, I think being patient and thinking about mid-2024 is smart. Give him at least another month or two at AA, then let him play out the rest of the year in Buffalo.
It gets complicated if he performs well at AA and then Bo or Chapman gets hurt, but hopefully it doesn't come to that.