Management Thread | Who needs draft picks Edition

[sandwichbird2023]

As long as we can dump Myers and Boeser (and maybe even Garland) without taking any cap back nor trading any significant picks, acquire a defensively responsible 3C, buy out OEL, hope for healthy season for all our players, play Petey/Hughes/JTM insane minutes in all situations and hope they don't break down, and address the depth without spending much cap space, we should be good next season and probably maybe potentially make the playoff.

Easy peasy. Who needs a rebuild? This 5 games hot streak is definitely different than the other mini hot streak we end previous seasons with. The team has turned the corner.

 

[racerjoe]

Question for the optimistic bunch...

Does the Tochett coach bump success hold more merit than the larger sample size of the Boudreau bump success from last season (when many were heralding him as a saviour), and why?

A lot of what the players are saying now is eerily similar to what they were saying last year.

There is more positivity in the room. A new voice. A new approach to playing the game. Things are different now. Its easier to come to the rink.

When we think about just how similar the narrative was last season to what it is now, is there any reason to believe they will continue to play this way next year?

There's zero basis for that line of thinking.

Boudreau when from 'hero to zero' in less than a full season.

I don't think I am overly optimistic about this team. I am just not as negative as most and it comes off as optimistic.

I think most are getting a bump mixed up with system play. A coach bump normally happens right after a new coach is hired, and might last a few games. We didn't really see this with Bruce last year. We thought we did, but it was more of what Miller was talking about happening right now, it being a bit of a relief to have some things on the team clear up, and riding a few hot players. Second half saw our top players go on huge tears.

We see some of that now, no doubt, but what is good is how the team is playing, in a system.

Do I think this carries into next season? It should to start, but what I think it also matters what we do in the offseason. So I wouldn't be saying we will make the playoffs just yet and say I still think this is a bubble team.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Question for the optimistic bunch...

Does the Tochett coach bump success hold more merit than the larger sample size of the Boudreau bump success from last season (when many were heralding him as a saviour), and why?

A lot of what the players are saying now is eerily similar to what they were saying last year.

There is more positivity in the room. A new voice. A new approach to playing the game. Things are different now. Its easier to come to the rink.

When we think about just how similar the narrative was last season to what it is now, is there any reason to believe they will continue to play this way next year?

There's zero basis for that line of thinking.

Boudreau went from 'hero to zero' in less than a full season.

I think it’s pretty obvious they aren’t relying on goaltending now and are playing with more structure. But, small sample size. This core could quit at any point

 

[m9]

Question for the optimistic bunch...

Does the Tochett coach bump success hold more merit than the larger sample size of the Boudreau bump success from last season (when many were heralding him as a saviour), and why?

A lot of what the players are saying now is eerily similar to what they were saying last year.

There is more positivity in the room. A new voice. A new approach to playing the game. Things are different now. Its easier to come to the rink.

When we think about just how similar the narrative was last season to what it is now, is there any reason to believe they will continue to play this way next year?

There's zero basis for that line of thinking.

Boudreau went from 'hero to zero' in less than a full season.

I don't think this team is as bad as they showed earlier this year. So yeah, I'm optimistic that they can be in the mix for a playoff spot next year.

I also don't really care about that outcome as they are still far away from being a contender so I'm not sure what greater purpose it serves.

 

[Diogenes92]

I don't think I am overly optimistic about this team. I am just not as negative as most and it comes off as optimistic.

I think most are getting a bump mixed up with system play. A coach bump normally happens right after a new coach is hired, and might last a few games. We didn't really see this with Bruce last year. We thought we did, but it was more of what Miller was talking about happening right now, it being a bit of a relief to have some things on the team clear up, and riding a few hot players. Second half saw our top players go on huge tears.

We see some of that now, no doubt, but what is good is how the team is playing, in a system.

Do I think this carries into next season? It should to start, but what I think it also matters what we do in the offseason. So I wouldn't be saying we will make the playoffs just yet and say I still think this is a bubble team.

Is this "better system" an eye test thing, or statistics based?

How much of this "improvement in systems" is due to Tochett's insistence on playing his top players close to or more than 25+ minutes a game and playing Demko at a pace of 90% of the remaining games? Can they get away with doing that for 82 games next year?

I think it’s pretty obvious they aren’t relying on goaltending now and are playing with more structure. But, small sample size. This core could quit at any point

Demko has most definitely contributed in a huge way to this 5 game streak. He is arguably the biggest reason for it.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Is this "better system" an eye test thing, or statistics based?

How much of this "improvement in systems" is due to Tochett's insistence on playing his top players close to or more than 25+ minutes a game and playing Demko at a pace of 90% of the remaining games? Can they get away with doing that for 82 games next year?


Demko has most definitely contributed in a huge way to this 5 game streak. He is arguably the biggest reason for it.

Well I disagree. He has been solid but certainly hasn’t been stealing any games. Any goalie experts have an opinion on this? Loads of permitter chances and the glaring breakdowns leading to odd man rushes have largely disappeared. The stats also back up the teams improved play also.

 

[racerjoe]

Is this "better system" an eye test thing, or statistics based?

How much of this "improvement in systems" is due to Tochett's insistence on playing his top players close to or more than 25+ minutes a game and playing Demko at a pace of 90% of the remaining games? Can they get away with doing that for 82 games next year?


Demko has most definitely contributed in a huge way to this 5 game streak. He is arguably the biggest reason for it.

For me just eye, but if I am not mistaken their stats have been much better too, but I think @mossey3535 can speak more to this.

 

[DonnyNucker]

For me just eye, but if I am not mistaken their stats have been much better too, but I think @mossey3535 can speak more to this.

Even the most negative media members like Drance have said the numbers match the eye test and the Canucks are stronger defensively and have improved structure. Certainly seems obvious watching the team the last month.

 

[credulous]

Coach	GP	CF%	FF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SH%	SV%	PDO
Rick Tocchet	20	49.5	50.24	51.56	47.78	50.82	9.27	89.22	0.985
Bruce Boudreau 2022	46	47.2	46.88	47.54	46.08	45.65	9.31	90.13	0.994
Bruce Boudreau 2021	57	49.34	49.81	49.65	53.33	49.56	8.43	92.72	1.012

at least 5v5 the canucks have played better. still not playing well but definitely showing improvement

 

[arttk]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Coach[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]CF%[/TD]
[TD]FF%[/TD]
[TD]SF%[/TD]
[TD]GF%[/TD]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]SH%[/TD]
[TD]SV%[/TD]
[TD]PDO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rick Tocchet[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]49.5[/TD]
[TD]50.24[/TD]
[TD]51.56[/TD]
[TD]47.78[/TD]
[TD]50.82[/TD]
[TD]9.27[/TD]
[TD]89.22[/TD]
[TD]0.985[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bruce Boudreau 2022[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]47.2[/TD]
[TD]46.88[/TD]
[TD]47.54[/TD]
[TD]46.08[/TD]
[TD]45.65[/TD]
[TD]9.31[/TD]
[TD]90.13[/TD]
[TD]0.994[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bruce Boudreau 2021[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]49.34[/TD]
[TD]49.81[/TD]
[TD]49.65[/TD]
[TD]53.33[/TD]
[TD]49.56[/TD]
[TD]8.43[/TD]
[TD]92.72[/TD]
[TD]1.012[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

at least 5v5 the canucks have played better. still not playing well but definitely showing improvement

And this is with Hughes, Myers and AHL defense. Also Dries as the 3C.
Pretty strong numbers considering the lineup.

 

[Diogenes92]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Coach[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]CF%[/TD]
[TD]FF%[/TD]
[TD]SF%[/TD]
[TD]GF%[/TD]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]SH%[/TD]
[TD]SV%[/TD]
[TD]PDO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rick Tocchet[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]49.5[/TD]
[TD]50.24[/TD]
[TD]51.56[/TD]
[TD]47.78[/TD]
[TD]50.82[/TD]
[TD]9.27[/TD]
[TD]89.22[/TD]
[TD]0.985[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bruce Boudreau 2022[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]47.2[/TD]
[TD]46.88[/TD]
[TD]47.54[/TD]
[TD]46.08[/TD]
[TD]45.65[/TD]
[TD]9.31[/TD]
[TD]90.13[/TD]
[TD]0.994[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bruce Boudreau 2021[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]49.34[/TD]
[TD]49.81[/TD]
[TD]49.65[/TD]
[TD]53.33[/TD]
[TD]49.56[/TD]
[TD]8.43[/TD]
[TD]92.72[/TD]
[TD]1.012[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

at least 5v5 the canucks have played better. still not playing well but definitely showing improvement

Its really hard to predict that they will continue to improve and transition their play into next year. As you said, their level of play isn't up to snuff.

I guess I'm taking the easy road and assuming they'll continue the same trend of playing well under a new coach and then fizzling out the following season.

Demko is seemingly back to his form from last season since returning from injury. I believe that will win them at least a few more games that they otherwise should've lost. Maybe he can save their bacon next year, too.

 

[Green Blank Stare]

Is this "better system" an eye test thing, or statistics based?

How much of this "improvement in systems" is due to Tochett's insistence on playing his top players close to or more than 25+ minutes a game and playing Demko at a pace of 90% of the remaining games? Can they get away with doing that for 82 games next year?


Demko has most definitely contributed in a huge way to this 5 game streak. He is arguably the biggest reason for it.

I don't know how anyone can say this isn't largely about Demko returning to form. They were outshot 27-19 against Dallas but won 5-2. Their previous game against Dallas they won 5-4 in OT while being outshot 37-21. They beat the Leafs 4-1 while getting outshot 37-24. They were on the opposite end of that most of the season because of their atrocious goaltending.

 

[mathonwy]

I don't know how anyone can say this isn't largely about Demko returning to form. They were outshot 27-19 against Dallas but won 5-2. Their previous game against Dallas they won 5-4 in OT while being outshot 37-21. They beat the Leafs 4-1 while getting outshot 37-24. They were on the opposite end of that most of the season because of their atrocious goaltending.

Goaltending makes all the difference.

I miss Martin.

 

[Ninjadude]

What are these…draft pricks you speak of?

 

[LordBacon]

What are these…draft pricks you speak of?

Magic beans that dont work.

 

[andora]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Coach[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]CF%[/TD]
[TD]FF%[/TD]
[TD]SF%[/TD]
[TD]GF%[/TD]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]SH%[/TD]
[TD]SV%[/TD]
[TD]PDO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rick Tocchet[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]49.5[/TD]
[TD]50.24[/TD]
[TD]51.56[/TD]
[TD]47.78[/TD]
[TD]50.82[/TD]
[TD]9.27[/TD]
[TD]89.22[/TD]
[TD]0.985[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bruce Boudreau 2022[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]47.2[/TD]
[TD]46.88[/TD]
[TD]47.54[/TD]
[TD]46.08[/TD]
[TD]45.65[/TD]
[TD]9.31[/TD]
[TD]90.13[/TD]
[TD]0.994[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bruce Boudreau 2021[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]49.34[/TD]
[TD]49.81[/TD]
[TD]49.65[/TD]
[TD]53.33[/TD]
[TD]49.56[/TD]
[TD]8.43[/TD]
[TD]92.72[/TD]
[TD]1.012[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

at least 5v5 the canucks have played better. still not playing well but definitely showing improvement

And since tocchet coming in they are 6th in high danger chances allowed (not sixth worse) while having the 5th worse high danger save percentage in that timeline

 

[canuckking1]

I actually feel pretty good about most of my thoughts about the roster in recent years..

My Hughes takes post bubble aged like wine but my Boeser takes aged like milk. You win some you lose some

 

[m9]

My Hughes takes post bubble aged like wine but my Boeser takes aged like milk. You win some you lose some

Good reminder for me actually. I haven't been negative on Hughes - obviously he's great - but I've always been open to trading him if you could use the assets to re-work the defense because I think his value is that high.

He may have played himself past that point for me now. It's probably a moot point because he's not being traded anyway, but my thoughts have probably changed a bit regarding him.

 

[VanJack]

I see Canucks Army is stumping for an OEL buyout. Would save them $7m against the cap next season, but would represent a crippling burden down the road.

But at least there's a chance that a big uptick in the salary cap over the next 4-5 seasons might lessen the pain a little.

Not an ideal solution--but shaping up as the only realistic option available.

 

[andora]

I see Canucks Army is stumping for an OEL buyout. Would save them $7m against the cap next season, but would represent a crippling burden down the road.

But at least there's a chance that a big uptick in the salary cap over the next 4-5 seasons might lessen the pain a little.

Not an ideal solution--but shaping up as the only realistic option available.

And why isthere a big uptick in the cap coming.. I know that report came out about them looking to increase it but I could even see if they increase it a decent bump this year and or next year as well that the penalty for that could be flat again.

Calling it the only realistic option is pigeonholing yourself because it is literally tied to potentially half a dozen other things happening or not happening.

 

[racerjoe]

I thought the cap might go up until all of the Bankruptcy's and companies dropping broadcasting rights. I can't really se it anymore.

 

[andora]

I thought the cap might go up until all of the Bankruptcy's and companies dropping broadcasting rights. I can't really se it anymore.

Exactly until it happens I don't think we should expect anything. I'm sure there's a hell of a lot more that everybody knows behind the scenes but if it isn't reported yet as sure as hell isn't guaranteed or even agreed upon

 

[JohnHodgson]

I don't think I am overly optimistic about this team. I am just not as negative as most and it comes off as optimistic.

I think most are getting a bump mixed up with system play. A coach bump normally happens right after a new coach is hired, and might last a few games. We didn't really see this with Bruce last year. We thought we did, but it was more of what Miller was talking about happening right now, it being a bit of a relief to have some things on the team clear up, and riding a few hot players. Second half saw our top players go on huge tears.

We see some of that now, no doubt, but what is good is how the team is playing, in a system.

Do I think this carries into next season? It should to start, but what I think it also matters what we do in the offseason. So I wouldn't be saying we will make the playoffs just yet and say I still think this is a bubble team.

Yup.

People here are overly negative and insufferable.

If you try to reason and be "cautiously" optimistic, you're labeled as overly optimistic and delusional (because we've sucked for a long time... which has no relevance to what is happening now).

 

[mriswith]

In summary, Yzerman inherited a less then ideal situation, he made a plan, and is going to need some time to implement it before it can been deemed to have failed?

And jumping the gun calling it a failure too soon would be a mistake?

Just clarifying, not putting words in your mouth, feel free to tell me where Im off base here.

Sure I agree with that.

I think it's fine to criticize bad moves that he's made, like the Chiarot contract is bad, Cossa over Wallstedt is trending poorly, etc. It just doesn't make sense to call Yzerman's rebuild a failure when most of his picks are still teenagers and they aren't done drafting inside the top 10 yet.

Moving your team from bottom 5 to 16th is easy, the natural entropy of the league will make that happen even if the GM does literally nothing at all. All of the skill of being a GM is moving your team from 16th to top 5 and a huge part of that is not screwing up the process of moving from bottom 5 to 16th by being impatient.

 

[JohnHodgson]

I see Canucks Army is stumping for an OEL buyout. Would save them $7m against the cap next season, but would represent a crippling burden down the road.

But at least there's a chance that a big uptick in the salary cap over the next 4-5 seasons might lessen the pain a little.

Not an ideal solution--but shaping up as the only realistic option available.

Is that actually true?

Huge savings in the first two years (~$12M combined).

Moderate savings in year three and four (~$5M combined).

$2M cap hit from years 5-8. Cap should be up so as a % of the cap, it should be quite tiny in proportion. $2M at that point would be the equivalent of an OK bottom sixer or bottom pairing defenseman... it's not going to get you a lot. Having a $2M for 4 yeas in my opinion is not a crippling burden in my opinion.