Trading him with 50% retention would be my hope to get out of the contract asap. Buying him out this summer would be a desperate move with the hope of the cap increasing rapidly. The hit for next year would only be 147k
Management Thread | Who needs draft picks Edition
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Raistlin
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The dichotomy in what construes as success is why there is such turmoil in Canuck land. The bubble playoffs is enough with some folks. Whereas the aim for others is the Sedin era. That was a period of around 10 years where you are expected to make playoffs within that there was maybe 3-4 years where they are contenders. Post 2013, the franchise has never even remotely achieved anything close to be able to build to that lofty height. For me, who has experienced '94 and 2011, bubble playoffs is not enough. It was pure luck, where a lot of veteran teams do not have the appetite to compete. The current direction runs counter to sustainable success, and that is unacceptable.
I mean, they can't even tank properly with Bedard in their sights.
Well JR’s first and multiple conference he did mention the goal is to win a cup, so I don’t know why people are like oh they only care about getting into the playoffs. You know that like you have to build a playoff team before you can build a contender. All the teams that won the cup didn’t go from tank mode to contender mode.
I don’t disagree with what Detroit is doing, I am simply highlighting the fact despite doing everything right, bad drafting is making their rebuild time longer. Like even if you only count their rebuild as starting the moment Yxerman was hired, they are in year 4 now and they don’t have that young elite 1C and multiple forwards to assemble around. It’s no fault of their really, they just had shit drafting luck. He sold Hronek because he needs to f***ing tank to get that #1C and having Hronek and also Bertuzzi around will just ensure they are stuck in the mushy middle where they don’t get bad enough to get that guy to build around.
Detroit is like an example where you can do everything right and still take forever to rebuild. It’s foolish to think of a 2 year rebuild because there is no such thing as a 2 year rebuild. 2 year retool is probably the more realistic approach considering we have a selke level 100pt center and a ppg+ #1D. I can’t stress how f***ing lucky you need to be to get these 2 pieces. Like there are maybe 2-3 centers that are 100Pt + and can play selke level D in the last 20 years. How many ppg #1 D exist in the league in the last 20 years? Guys like that can win you cups, we just need to build around them with not shit pieces.
Raistlin
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How?
Sign them in UFA? Like we did with Loui Ericsson? Myers? Dickinson? Beagle? Those are all shit pieces, non shit pieces you have to overpay.
We have nobody pushing in the pipeline. Are you thinking Woos? Linds? Rathbones? Lekkerimakis? Klimovich? JURMO? There is literally no one pushing internally.
So what are we left with? Draft them right? With high picks to maximize the chance of landing complimentary pieces like Podkolzin, Hoglander. You can't draft them if you are blowing them away plugging a hole with a decent D man that you will have to pay 6 mill in 2 years, all the while you have 8 in Miller, 10+ in EP, 8 in QH, 5 Demko, 7 OEL, 5 Garland. That's just 7 players. See how hard it is to trade Boeser without retention? This current team is riddled with it like herpes. The only way out of it is to give time for these contracts to expire. Because everyone operates under the same cap, and we have no room to manoeuver now making trades like that. Hronek is a good player, but you bought him at the wrong part of your cycle. Like Miller, a great deal, but at the wrong part of the cycle. Yzerman realized that he was too optimistic this year, so he had to change direction last week, it's probably painful to trade Bertuzzi and Hronek, but thank goodness he has cache to fall back on, with his charisma, he can buy time. And no doubt with 5 first round picks in 3 years, he will have so much ammo to find that missing elite piece.
Agreed. To be fair, it's possible that the Canucks know the asking price for an extension and are comfortable with it. JR did like to have cost certainty on D in Pittsburgh.
If I'm Hronek, I'm going to wait and see what Vince Dunn gets.
Umm no.. previous people and bad choices
Well technically you will have podkolzin hoglander and raty pushing
I dont know where lind is anymore.. and two of thos guys are too raw.. jurmo and lekker
Johansson will push
What previous people did was screw up our cycle.. so we are in it now like it or not
I like to think of pettersson like stamkos and the years it took him to win the first but the team was up and down for a long time. Push for abplayoff team while continually making improvements is where we are. Do your best in every trade do your best on every draft pick and work your hardest on every coveted young free agent
Its qhere we are
ok I think the first thing we should acknowledge is let’s not assume any GM will do what Benning would do. Benning is Benning and he’s in his own class of dumb.
I don’t know how they are going to improve the team or if they can and also how sustainable it can be moving forward.
I just believe the odds of them pulling off a retool is probably around the same as trying to pull off a 2 year rebuild that no team has ever pulled off. They will either fail or succeed, I don’t really think there is a middle ground. And if they fail, Petey and Hughes will want out and tada, rebuild. If they don’t then Petey and Hughes will stick around and we’ll see what that team actually looks like.
i think we all understand and agree that a mix of Boeser, Myers, OEL, Pearson, Garland needs to go. I think before the trade deadline, I would agree that yeah it’s going to be hard to get rid of those guys. After the trade deadline where they manage to mine assets out of 2 useless part of the team in Lazar and Stillman, I am starting to doubt whether we have any idea how GM values anything really. So when Allvin says they have leads and are confident they can get it done, well I guess we’ll see. I think we see inaction and assume that oh nobody wants those players when in reality, it could be other GMs do want those players but the front office is asking for too much in return and they simply will not budge.
i am not too worried about the pipeline. It seems like they are filling the pipe through a mix of euro and college free agents and the get former high picks for cheap tactic. I mean that has gotten us Kuz, Aman, Bear, Studnicka and Kravstov so far and cost us like barely any assets. So if they continue to go that path and is able to find success through volume, then it should be fine until we manage to build back the prospect depth over time.
credulous
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vince dunn is going to get like 9m. he's absolutely elite and is the engine of seattle's offense in the same way hughes is to vancouver and morrissey is to winnipeg. and he's an elite transistion defender on top of that
We're set up well to do two things in the offseason: Move Myers by attaching one of our extra 3rds or 4ths and move one of Boeser or Garland.
With the cap space from moving Myers and the cap space and/or assets from moving Boeser/Garland, we can invest in a 3C and another defenseman.
Those two things with a healthy, rested Demko could put us in pretty good shape for next year.
Kuzmenko - Pettersson - Mikheyev
Beauvillier - Miller - Garland/Boeser
Podkolzin - 3C - Kravtsov
Joshua - Aman - Studnicka
Hoglander, Raty
Hughes - Bear
D - Hronek
OEL - Cheap defenseman/Dermott
Demko
With the cap space from moving Myers and the cap space and/or assets from moving Boeser/Garland, we can invest in a 3C and another defenseman.
Those two things with a healthy, rested Demko could put us in pretty good shape for next year.
Kuzmenko - Pettersson - Mikheyev
Beauvillier - Miller - Garland/Boeser
Podkolzin - 3C - Kravtsov
Joshua - Aman - Studnicka
Hoglander, Raty
Hughes - Bear
D - Hronek
OEL - Cheap defenseman/Dermott
Demko
Raistlin
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Let's say I wont worry about Allvin's acumen to sign the right players. Take Mikheyev. On pace for 50 points while stapled to EP. Oft injured in his 4 years. Consensus is that he is overpaid @4.4... He is, but not excessively. Kuzmenko is definitely a homerun, kudos management, well.... He will cost 5.5 next year. Lazar, at least they wriggled out of it in time. My point is, even if they nail all the right pieces, which is nigh impossible, every single piece will be overpaid.
You mention "they will fail or succeed." That's the problem, they will be more likely to fail than succeed if they retool, because the goal is to win a cup. Where did I mention a 2 year rebuild? That's not a rebuild at all, it's at minimum a three year rebuild, most likely four. A 2 year retool is continuing the cycle of mediocrity, it means making playoffs but with a minimal chance of competing with the Boston and Avs of today, the Kings, Devils, Wild, even Ducks of tomorrow.
The goal is to win a cup. We have to agree on that.
A 4 year rebuild means EP will be 28, right at his prime. Hughes will still be on his deal, hopefully a bargain at that point. Whomever we tanked for this year will still be on his ELC, Podkolzin will be an established power forward, and Kuzmenko where Miller is at right now. And of course a plethora of depth that the 4 years will accrue. They will make playoffs as a contender not completely dependent on Demko on god mode every game to win a round. It's not far fetched, if only Aqualini will greenlight it in 2023. Draft picks and cap flexibility will help you realize that.
You're extrapolating what happened with Lazar and Stillman with Boeser, Myers, OEL and Garland??? No, the latter batch will take a miracle to move without suffering some painful loss in some form. Completely apple and oranges in cap hit to the team absorbing it.
Yes. I agree with you here. Trying to recoup the lost picks by buying depressed assets and rely on the development team to rebuild the asset back up is sound strategy, they won a homerun bet in Kuzmenko, the others don't move the needle much unfortunately. But Kravtsov is another good bet.
I think you are too optimistic with what Allvin is doing, and attribute too much to bad luck in Yzerman's rebuild, his rebuild is basically foolproof with Kasper, Edvinsson, Wallinder joining Raymond Seider and Larkin.... It would've been finished if he didn't big brain drafting Cossa over Wallstedt.
It seems you don't worry too much. Hey, for what it's worth, I really WANT to be optimistic.
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A few things. Mik wasn't stapled to Petterson. He was the most common linemate yes, but only at 30%.
Two on pace for 50 posts is pretty damn good for two way players like him.
Why are you talking about a 4 year rebuild and keeping Petterson. He is gone if that is the route we take.
You do realize in the last year the team has a better prospect pool, is a younger team.
We still are not a good team, but we have changed a lot and are in a better position. There is more things lined up to go our way, and yes luck will be a part of that, but as a few have said, you need luck no matter the direction.
NYVanfan
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- Mar 27, 2002
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This.
Much depends this summer I’m getting away from the $ on Myers, and one of Garland/Boeser. And then they can sell Beauvillier at the deadline next year….before needing a lot in ‘24 to re-up EP, Hronek, Podz, etc.
There’s no doubt that the most fair criticism of this team is how badly they’ve managed their cap for such a low performing team, and how much that restricts your ability to make the moves you need to to get better.
Just making the Horvat deal they increased their cap with Hronek and Beauvillier
Tob
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- Sep 16, 2017
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The hronek trade reminds me of the J.T Miller trade. Trading picks for a ready made player that's going to need a raise sooner rather than later. Francesco and his puppet management doesn't understand it's not the player or even the age, it's the contract. The run down crack house isn't worth $2M, it's the land and the location. You'd expect a landlord team owner to understand that.
Once the UFA contract for Miller kicks in, the draft picks spent on his value $5.25M deal will have effectively evaporated. The clock is ticking on when Hronek's deal expires and the team inevitably extend him to a big boy 7-year $6.75M-$7.25M AAV deal and the 1st and 2nd in the trade will have largely evaporated too, adding to the overwhelming number of players on the team that at best worth their AAV or far below the expected value in performance.
Just like the Miller trade, this could make the team a playoff team but it's a hefty gamble when there is a lot of a swing and a prayer on team culture, individual performances, goaltending, and coaching.
I think the Canucks will keep their pick after the last 2 high ones have turned into EP and QH but one good ELC isn't going to dissolve cap insolvency, unless it's bedard....maybe.
Once the UFA contract for Miller kicks in, the draft picks spent on his value $5.25M deal will have effectively evaporated. The clock is ticking on when Hronek's deal expires and the team inevitably extend him to a big boy 7-year $6.75M-$7.25M AAV deal and the 1st and 2nd in the trade will have largely evaporated too, adding to the overwhelming number of players on the team that at best worth their AAV or far below the expected value in performance.
Just like the Miller trade, this could make the team a playoff team but it's a hefty gamble when there is a lot of a swing and a prayer on team culture, individual performances, goaltending, and coaching.
I think the Canucks will keep their pick after the last 2 high ones have turned into EP and QH but one good ELC isn't going to dissolve cap insolvency, unless it's bedard....maybe.
credulous
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studnicka doesn't belong anywhere near an nhl roster. i don't think raty does either. not yet. i also think pencilling in podkolzin and kravtsov is foolish. i think you give them both an opportunity to earn a spot next year but neither of them have really shown they can be consistent and productive nhl wingers. i'm not sold on aman as an nhler but it seems like tocchet is so he's probably a safe inclusion. dermott is probably a luxury the canucks can't afford. his QO is 1.75m which doesn't sound like much but the canucks are so close to the cap and dermott is such a question mark i think he gets non-tendered
an underrated part of this season's struggles has been that vancouver has played an absolute ton of marginal nhl players: lazar 45 games, dries 43 games, studnicka 36 games, stillman 32 games, burroughs 28 games, lockwood 13 games, pederson 11 games, brisebois 8 games, wolanin 7 games, rathbone 6 games, juulsen 5 games
and that assumes that hoglander, podkolzin, kravtsov, di giuseppe, myers and oel are *not* marginal nhlers right now
if vancouver wants to be competitive they need to have far, far more competition at the bottom of their roster. they need to find a way to bring in cheap, veteran depth so if podkolzin can't find his game he's not gifted 60 games because the best alternative is william karlsson
with that in mind, i think this is a more realistic roster "base":
kuzmenko - pettersson - beauvillier
mikheyev - miller - garland*
______ - ______ - ______
joshua - aman - ______
hughes - ______
______ - hronek
oel - bear**
______
demko
______
* could be boeser instead if garland proves easier to move
** needs a new contract
every blank spot in that lineup should ideally have multiple options. if you just gift hoglander, kravtsov and podkolzin the remaining wing spots and your next best option past them is studnicka or di giuseppe you could be throwing the season away before it even starts
I think the first thing is, a 4 year rebuild means Petey and Hughes will be playing for another team. Let’s just be clear about that. There is no such thing as we will take 4 years to rebuild and he is going to stick around, it’s not going to happen.
I don’t really agree with Mik and Kuz being overpaid, if you think they are overpaid then man you are really stingy.
I think a lot of the thinking I see from y’all is well they can’t possibly get this so we gotta rebuild. Well ummm no? Like yes they haven’t filled all the holes but they have so far added more wingers that are fast, defensive and can score. They just added a top4 D, we’ll see how that goes. They added in some younger piece with decent potential like Kravstov. They are already doing some stuff that people didn’t think they could do. There are still a lot of holes and we’ll see if they can fill them without sacrificing the future in this off-season.
If anything it seems like this group can actually pro scout and also not just identify players that can contribute, they are able to identify players that can play the style they want the team to play. Like they are actually team building, it’s not like Benning where he just grab players like Garland and look at the stat line and does duh player good. All the guys they’ve acquire actually fits.
Regarding winning a cup, you don’t really need like every player to be underpaid to win the cup. Just look at Washington, St. Louis, Pitts when they won their cup. I think we need to look at winning the cup via the lens of what St. Louis, Washington and even the pens did. They were perennial playoff teams and they were not contenders every single year. They have a strong base that gets them in the dance every year and then when they hit the right draft pick or the right extra piece comes along, they go all in and manages to get it done. If anything, that is what Tampa bay f***ing did. They didn’t build their depth over night, look at their draft history, they spent like 8 years building their depth while going to the playoffs almost every single year.
Bubbles
Die Hard for Bedard 2023
Exactly. How many of these moves have we seen in the Benning era? It's the same type of trade that is always advertised as "speeding up the rebuild." In fact, I think Benning literally said that about the Miller trade.
Same with the Claneding - Forsling trade, Gudbranson - McCann + 2nd,4th, and the Garland/OEL fiasco.
Absolutely zero patience on player development. Always taking the failed prospect off other teams for futures.
Holy crap, I am just reminded me of the Gudbranson trade. Allvin literally uses the same reasonings.
Josepho
i want the bartkowski thread back
It might have to happen but there's no way we're gonna get close to good enough value for them.
It’s crazy how much BS we need to scroll through on HF to see a level headed take.
If they completely flame out next year, Allvin/JR absolutely deserve to get fired.
Let’s wait and see the final roster heading next year before we start the old man yelling at clouds thing
Underrated point.
If they miss the playoffs, those complaining have merit. Also depends on how they miss I guess.
If they make the playoffs, those complaining look silly. Also depends on playoff success I guess.
Either way, there’s resolution to this and that’s what I’m looking forward to.
No, that’s not true. Those critical of the direction or trade don’t necessarily think they can’t make the playoffs over the next few years. I think most people realize they could if enough things break their way. The issue is whether this approach will build a sustainable playoff team that can compete for a Stanley cup. If it can’t, then it’s a failed approach. No one wants our 8-10 years of shit or whatever to amount to a team that makes the playoffs 2-3 times or whatever over a five year stretch but then fizzles out and never actually competes for the Stanley Cup. That’s a massive failure.
Tob
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Allvin framing picks to either draft players or use as currency to trade for players sounds like something you'd learn from business school but at the end of the day it's buying a boost to the roster at the cost of long term cap management. A 1.5 year boost to the roster (wasted half a year this year) at the cost of good young players.
Building around EP and QH at this point should be subtracting negatives. I think they understand how poor some of the contracts on their team is. It's hard to say. Selling off should have started last year, through the summer, to now. The Sabres sold off Reinhart and Eichel and ristolainen and team morale is higher than ever. The names aren't as flashy but it's hard to argue against their results from having a leaner roster and locker room.
It took around a year for the Sabres to go from pain to gain and build total buy in. The time for pain was at the deadline to trade Miller for picks instead of picks for hronek. Pain until bedard is drafted by someone. Even then I think management can still execute Francesco's will. Trade Miller, draft twice in the 1st, be convinced this is gonna be the 2023 version of the Hughes and Petterson homeruns, trade Myers, keep Boeser, and sign a Dylan Strome or Trocheck type UFA center plus an UFA defenseman like Severson who may be worse than hronek yes but I think ownership would still be satisfied with the immediate gratification and convincing fans the team is competitive.
FA really has fallen in love with Miller is the Pegulas and Eichel. From the moment he tweeted to boast about how smart the Miller acquisition was and how wrong the haters were, it was game over. JR and PA should focus their combined life force on finding a deal to trade Miller away that FA will accept. They haven't been great but I believe they see it and they want to trade Miller but they can't until a right combination of conditions align to sooth ownership of the need for immediate replacement of how many added wins FA thinks Miller brings. I wouldn't bet money on it but I think there's a chance.
Also, I recall a poster on your board that I saw on the main boards a lot, erub ot mogilny, did he chance his username?
Most Stanley Cup winners need to actually be perennial playoff contenders first.
I think it's going to be a step by step approach where they continue to build. People acted like they traded all their picks or something. They still have the upcoming pick who should be an impact player in 2-3 years.
They still have some young players/prospects that should be able to come in and be impactful in the next 2 years: Lekkermaki, Hoglander, Podkolzin, Kravstov, Rathbone, Karlsson, Raty, Forsell, D Petey, Jurmo, Filip Johansson etc. Obviously not every player is going to hit but we do have a pipeline of prospects.
Even if we don't get a Bedard, there's a lot of talent at the top of this year's draft.
Re-read my post. I never said anyone would call it a fail the first time they made the playoffs.
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