Management Discussion | You can’t handle the Rebuild!

[PuckMunchkin]

Moleman and Allvin came in with fans having THE lowest possible expectations for any GM in the league.

Yet they managed to dig themselves even deeper?????

HOW?????????

Oh there are a couple people here who are quite happy with the direction they've taken.

We are six months away from finding out if Pettersson is going to Tkachuk his way out of here or if he actually wants to stay.

I see this going one of two ways...

Tkachuk route, or he forces management to pay every penny possible. No reason to give a hometown discount to a team that isn't competing for a cup.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

I see this going one of two ways...

Tkachuk route, or he forces management to pay every penny possible. No reason to give a hometown discount to a team that isn't competing for a cup.

at this point, whether he stays or goes is going to come down to whether there are any/enough off ice reasons to be here. these are fairly young people, on average their life experiences are fairly limited, and i think that's how you get a lot of guys randomly staying way too long on teams with no future. they don't know what's out there and life in the gated suburbs of phoenix or raleigh or even like edmonton can be pretty sweet. you have good friends, the places you go treat you nice, you're all set with your hobbies and bigass house. sure, philadelphia or san jose or almost anywhere else can probably provide you with the same life amenities and sense of community, but there are always guys that don't want to rock the boat, or who convince themselves that what they have in their cities is special... and i guess in a sense they're right, because good relationships are special things, but they likely also can be replicated elsewhere.

how attached is petey to any of that stuff? i have no clue whatsoever but i think that's our only hope of keeping him

 

[MS]

I implore @MS to give the plan on how the team can clear cap space (including projecting the costs to dump/buy out salary) and sign Horvat at 8+, Kuzmenko at 6+, and Petterson at 10+. And then how they’ll be able to add win now pieces around those guys with limited cap space and zero futures.

I’ve tried fiddling and it does not seem possible. I could have bought it a year ago if they had made the necessary moves at the TDL and draft. But they have killed their leverage because now everyone has it confirmed that they don’t want to take a step back. They could have been at the same spot in the standings as they are now with a brighter short term outlook had they seen the forest for the trees.

We currently have $14.5 million in cap space against an $83.5 million cap, but really that's probably $17 million because it's hugely likely Poolman will be Ferlanded as a LTIR case.

I've said I'd do 3 things :

1) Buy out OEL.
2) Trade Myers once his bonus is paid and he only has $1 million in salary owing for next year. He should be very tradeable at that stage. If you need to add a pick, do it.
3) Retain down to $5 million on Boeser and hopefully get a pick or something back.

Do those 3 things and we clear $18 million in cap space.

That leaves $32.5 million (or really $35 million) of cap space for 23-24, of which Kuzmenko and Horvat will only take ~$14.5 million. Bear will probably take another $2 million.

Once you fill in a couple depth signings that should still leave a reasonable amount to try and make a couple smart mid-level UFA signings to replace Myers and OEL. Or what I'd really like is some sort of Boeser-Provorov trade.

I'm also not even touching a Garland trade or a Pearson buyout (or dump with a pick) here, which are also possibilities.

 

[bandwagonesque]

We currently have $14.5 million in cap space against an $83.5 million cap, but really that's probably $17 million because it's hugely likely Poolman will be Ferlanded as a LTIR case.

I've said I'd do 3 things :

1) Buy out OEL.
2) Trade Myers once his bonus is paid and he only has $1 million in salary owing for next year. He should be very tradeable at that stage. If you need to add a pick, do it.
3) Retain down to $5 million on Boeser and hopefully get a pick or something back.

Do those 3 things and we clear $18 million in cap space.

That leaves $32.5 million (or really $35 million) of cap space for 23-24, of which Kuzmenko and Horvat will only take ~$14.5 million. Bear will probably take another $2 million.

Once you fill in a couple depth signings that should still leave a reasonable amount to try and make a couple smart mid-level UFA signings to replace Myers and OEL. Or what I'd really like is some sort of Boeser-Provorov trade.

I'm also not even touching a Garland trade or a Pearson buyout (or dump with a pick) here, which are also possibilities.

I'm in agreement with this but I'd rather retain more on Boeser and try to get a useful asset back and explore whether OEL can be moved with full retention.

 

[Mahateet]

We currently have $14.5 million in cap space against an $83.5 million cap, but really that's probably $17 million because it's hugely likely Poolman will be Ferlanded as a LTIR case.

I've said I'd do 3 things :

1) Buy out OEL.
2) Trade Myers once his bonus is paid and he only has $1 million in salary owing for next year. He should be very tradeable at that stage. If you need to add a pick, do it.
3) Retain down to $5 million on Boeser and hopefully get a pick or something back.

Do those 3 things and we clear $18 million in cap space.

That leaves $32.5 million (or really $35 million) of cap space for 23-24, of which Kuzmenko and Horvat will only take ~$14.5 million. Bear will probably take another $2 million.

Once you fill in a couple depth signings that should still leave a reasonable amount to try and make a couple smart mid-level UFA signings to replace Myers and OEL. Or what I'd really like is some sort of Boeser-Provorov trade.

I'm also not even touching a Garland trade or a Pearson buyout (or dump with a pick) here, which are also possibilities.

Re-signing Horvat would be one of the worst things this management could do. He's not worth the money he will be getting and he's shown he's a horrible captain. That would just be doubling down on the same group again.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Re-signing Horvat would be one of the worst things this management could do. He's not worth the money he will be getting and he's shown he's a horrible captain. That would just be doubling down on the same group again.

They've already done something worse in re-signing Miller so may as well do Horvat as well.

 

[MS]

We currently have $14.5 million in cap space against an $83.5 million cap, but really that's probably $17 million because it's hugely likely Poolman will be Ferlanded as a LTIR case.

I've said I'd do 3 things :

1) Buy out OEL.
2) Trade Myers once his bonus is paid and he only has $1 million in salary owing for next year. He should be very tradeable at that stage. If you need to add a pick, do it.
3) Retain down to $5 million on Boeser and hopefully get a pick or something back.

Do those 3 things and we clear $18 million in cap space.

That leaves $32.5 million (or really $35 million) of cap space for 23-24, of which Kuzmenko and Horvat will only take ~$14.5 million. Bear will probably take another $2 million.

Once you fill in a couple depth signings that should still leave a reasonable amount to try and make a couple smart mid-level UFA signings to replace Myers and OEL. Or what I'd really like is some sort of Boeser-Provorov trade.

I'm also not even touching a Garland trade or a Pearson buyout (or dump with a pick) here, which are also possibilities.

... and since I know the first response will be 'they won't buy out OEL', here is the alternative.

1) Trade Myers as above.
2) Trade Boeser as above.
3) Buy out Pearson.
4) Use a pick to move Garland.

This clears a shade under $18 million in cap space and leaves us in basically the same situation, except we'd have to sign/trade for one less mid-level defender if we're continuing to pack around the corpse of OEL.

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

... and since I know the first response will be 'they won't buy out OEL', here is the alternative.

1) Trade Myers as above.
2) Trade Boeser as above.
3) Buy out Pearson.
4) Use a pick to move Garland.

This clears a shade under $18 million in cap space and leaves us in basically the same situation, except we'd have to sign/trade for one less mid-level defender if we're continuing to pack around the corpse of OEL.

What would you say if they dont do these things?

 

[MS]

What would you say if they dont do these things?

It's kind of shitty Dave Nonis-y do-nothing management where you're sitting on the fence scared to make a move and do the aggressive things required to succeed. And it will leave you stuck in the middle in nowhere land.

I said the same things last summer when they signed Boeser, didn't aggressively move out cap, and retained Boudreau instead of bringing in their guy as head coach.

 

[4Twenty]

I just don’t see MS’ plan being as easy as he’s suggesting.

Cap is king. Look what it cost to dump Dickinson. Apply the same market value to $6m for Myers. Also recognize he has a degree of control.

I don’t believe zero cap return trades will be available for Boeser or Garland either. I also don’t think a lot of this would/could occur before the draft or even free agency.


I agree with the approach though. It’s only 12-18 months late. They really dropped the ball at last years deadline and completely botched free agency. They’ve given away any flexibility by capping themselves out.

I think teams probably view a lot of the Canucks players as “losers” too. So I don’t see the rush teams would have to chase guys like Boeser, Garland, Myers, OEL who don’t really look like help to contenders or the types you add to younger rebuilding teams.

 

[MS]

I just don’t see MS’ plan being as easy as he’s suggesting.

Cap is king. Look what it cost to dump Dickinson. Apply the same market value to $6m for Myers. Also recognize he has a degree of control.

I don’t believe zero cap return trades will be available for Boeser or Garland either. I also don’t think a lot of this would/could occur before the draft or even free agency.


I agree with the approach though. It’s only 12-18 months late. They really dropped the ball at last years deadline and completely botched free agency. They’ve given away any flexibility by capping themselves out.

I think teams probably view a lot of the Canucks players as “losers” too. So I don’t see the rush teams would have to chase guys like Boeser, Garland, Myers, OEL who don’t really look like help to contenders or the types you add to younger rebuilding teams.

On Myers: again, he's probably a $3-4 million asset in terms of perception around the league making $1 million in salary. There are multiple teams way below the cap for whom that should be an attractive asset. Or at worst should only require a small sweetener.

Dickinson was a $1.5 million player owed $6 million in total cash over the next two seasons. It's just a *totally* different scenario. Chicago ate a ton of real cash with that trade.

Boeser will have interest if you retain down to $5 million. Guaranteed.

 

[racerjoe]

It's kind of shitty Dave Nonis-y do-nothing management where you're sitting on the fence scared to make a move and do the aggressive things required to succeed. And it will leave you stuck in the middle in nowhere land.

I said the same things last summer when they signed Boeser, didn't aggressively move out cap, and retained Boudreau instead of bringing in their guy as head coach.

Just a random thought.

I wonder if being forced to keep Boudreau changed their plan or delayed it at all. I say this as it was the first domino to fall, and we clearly know they didn't want him.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

I just don’t see MS’ plan being as easy as he’s suggesting.

Cap is king. Look what it cost to dump Dickinson. Apply the same market value to $6m for Myers. Also recognize he has a degree of control.

I don’t believe zero cap return trades will be available for Boeser or Garland either. I also don’t think a lot of this would/could occur before the draft or even free agency.


I agree with the approach though. It’s only 12-18 months late. They really dropped the ball at last years deadline and completely botched free agency. They’ve given away any flexibility by capping themselves out.

I think teams probably view a lot of the Canucks players as “losers” too. So I don’t see the rush teams would have to chase guys like Boeser, Garland, Myers, OEL who don’t really look like help to contenders or the types you add to younger rebuilding teams.

I fully agree. Mid-level players on an at-market salary carry negative value in a league that values cap flexibility. The fact that Miller, Boeser, Garland, Myers, OEL, Pearson carry both a high cap hit along with term is a killer. Realistically, you are attaching a combination of an unprotected first rounder along with most picks over the next 2-3 years to clear these guys.

On Myers: again, he's probably a $3-4 million asset in terms of perception around the league making $1 million in salary. There are multiple teams way below the cap for whom that should be an attractive asset. Or at worst should only require a small sweetener.

Dickinson was a $1.5 million player owed $6 million in total cash over the next two seasons. It's just a *totally* different scenario. Chicago ate a ton of real cash with that trade.

Boeser will have interest if you retain down to $5 million. Guaranteed.

Myers sucks. The league knows this. The only guy I could see interested in him is Chuck Fletcher but holy crap, the Flyers are capped out.

 

[MS]

Myers sucks. The league knows this. The only guy I could see interested in him is Chuck Fletcher but holy crap, the Flyers are capped out.

Myers would walk straight into a multi-year deal at a $4+ million AAV if he was on the market July 1.

 

[Hit the post]

Myers would walk straight into a multi-year deal at a $4+ million AAV if he was on the market July 1.

Proof?

The fact NoGoodBranSuck is still employed in the NHL. (granted his deal isn't *OVER* $4 million but rather "just" $4 million).

The Ron Jeremy's of NHLers tend to get still valued by some GM's.

 

[bossram]

Per Drancer (via NST numbers), yesterday was the single worst defensive performance by any team in the NHL this season.

Real great team you have there, Allvin/JR. Really makes sense to double down on this roster.

 

[Nucker101]

There are plenty of teams in the Canucks position desperately looking to shed cap/salary. Whichever teams are willing to pay the most to dump cap/salary will be able to do so.

Also Myers’ NTC is still a hurdle.

Not to mention that you have plan ahead for EP's raise when talking about all this supposed freed up money they could have next summer.

 

[4Twenty]

Myers would walk straight into a multi-year deal at a $4+ million AAV if he was on the market July 1.

He can block 10 teams. The top 15 probably can’t afford the cap hit even if they value the player.


So there’s 7-10 teams who might value him or be willing to take him on as a dump fit assets.


Who are these teams? You use Buffalo and Detroit….I bet those two are in the ntc list. And even Detroit currently wouldn’t be able to add a $6m hit without having to move other cap.

Doubtful anyone’s waiving for Arizona.

Like I said earlier, the only team in a position to eat shit that Myers may waive to imo is Anaheim.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Myers would walk straight into a multi-year deal at a $4+ million AAV if he was on the market July 1.

Oh I believe it. Gudbranson got that stupid contract which suggests Myers would get something equally as ridiculous as this in the open market. t's weird and a testament to how many GM's get a FOMO on July 1st.

However, GM's for some reason are less willing to part with picks for mid-level guys or take chances on guys signed to term deals. Plus the added NTC/NMC throws wrenches into potential trades.

 

[supercanuck]

Even if we miraculously rid ourselves of OEL/Myers/Boeser/etc contracts with little implications, I just don't see how the team's most glaring weakness can be fixed without taking a big step back (i.e. trading Bo/Kuz for lots of assets). This team needs 2 extremely solid #2-3 defenders, and those aren't easy to get without drafting them yourself.

I guess in a perfect world, you can sign a guy like Gavrikov to a massive FA deal, and then get someone like Jake Livingstone for free and hope he just steps right in as a top 4. That's a lot of praying though.

 

[Peter Griffin]

There's probably a few teams that would take on Myers' 1 year of commitment in hopes of flipping him at the deadline for an asset. The trick will be working around his NTC. Hell, even the Capitals are a team that could be interested, they only have Carlsson signed thru next season.

 

[MS]

He can block 10 teams. The top 15 probably can’t afford the cap hit even if they value the player.


So there’s 7-10 teams who might value him or be willing to take him on as a dump fit assets.


Who are these teams? You use Buffalo and Detroit….I bet those two are in the ntc list. And even Detroit currently wouldn’t be able to add a $6m hit without having to move other cap.

Doubtful anyone’s waiving for Arizona.

Like I said earlier, the only team in a position to eat shit that Myers may waive to imo is Anaheim.

I'd be surprised if those teams were on his NTC list at this point - young playoff-pushing teams. O6 teams always have a draw and he'd have history/friends in Buffalo. And there will be others. I didn't list Ottawa because I think he actually would block a trade there.

And yeah, maybe it requires a small sweetener. But his contract is very unique and using a comparison like Dickinson where you're paying the team to take the cap hit AND a huge pile of real money is not realistic. Plus Myers is perceived as a better player than Dickinson, and is a high-minute RHD which carries major demand even if you don't play those minutes very well - as we saw with Gudbranson.

 

[Peter Griffin]

This team needs 2 extremely solid #2-3 defenders, and those aren't easy to get without drafting them yourself.

"Extremely solid" or just better than the garbage we have already in OEL and Myers? This team doesn't need defensemen to carry this team, they just need them to not sink them.

 

[Peter Griffin]

We currently have $14.5 million in cap space against an $83.5 million cap, but really that's probably $17 million because it's hugely likely Poolman will be Ferlanded as a LTIR case.

I've said I'd do 3 things :

1) Buy out OEL.
2) Trade Myers once his bonus is paid and he only has $1 million in salary owing for next year. He should be very tradeable at that stage. If you need to add a pick, do it.
3) Retain down to $5 million on Boeser and hopefully get a pick or something back.

Do those 3 things and we clear $18 million in cap space.

That leaves $32.5 million (or really $35 million) of cap space for 23-24, of which Kuzmenko and Horvat will only take ~$14.5 million. Bear will probably take another $2 million.

Once you fill in a couple depth signings that should still leave a reasonable amount to try and make a couple smart mid-level UFA signings to replace Myers and OEL. Or what I'd really like is some sort of Boeser-Provorov trade.

I'm also not even touching a Garland trade or a Pearson buyout (or dump with a pick) here, which are also possibilities.

My question is if Bo Horvat doesn't re-sign, what next? To me, if Horvat doesn't stick around, you have to re-tool, you aren't replacing his role in the lineup next season short of winning the draft lottery.

 

[supercanuck]

"Extremely solid" or just better than the garbage we have already in OEL and Myers? This team doesn't need defensemen to carry this team, they just need them to not sink them.

Yes, losing those guys would definitely be addition by subtraction.

If we bring back the same group forwards who don't know how to play defense, I feel like we need 2 Tanev's basically...one to play with Quinn and allow him to do his thing offensively. Another to anchor the 2nd pairing.