Management Discussion | Pre-Season Approaching

[Hodgy]

Uh the post I just responded to said they can’t be judged.

Secondly that I can say “I loved getting rid of a winger” and not be considered positive is a you problem.

It seems high to only be clearing $1.35m in cap based on the face value of the transaction. It’s not a lot more than they would’ve got by burying him. But again I like the idea of the deal and hope it’s stitched into another larger more impactful deal. On its own it doesn’t come across as aggressive.

I don’t care to re-hash why you disagree with me. I was addressing someone else.

First, I said “generally speaking”. I never made an absolute claim. And I stand by this general claim.

Second, the point about Stillman was your criticism of the “high” price which as I said isn’t actually true when you compare it to the Nemeth cap dump. And sure, they could be more aggressive in dumping cap space but that would just cost more and presumably you would be critical of that too. My point, and why I originally asked for your reaction, is that one shouldn’t criticize the management for not being aggressive enough but then also criticize management when they try to dump camp space which may be required for them to be aggressive.

 

[racerjoe]

The bar is so incredibly low around here, my God.

No one was giving absolute praise, but I also wouldn't call this nothing seeing as we are actually the best team at it. Its a strong showing especially factoring in injuries.


Question about this if I am reading it correctly. Does this mean it includes all of the ELC bonuses? Cause that was a concern and would IMO be absolutely huge if we didn't need to worry about those.

 

[credulous]

Canucks are In a good position next season with Ferland and rhe dead cap coming off the books.

they're really not

they have a little under 12 mil in cap space next year

horvat, kuzmenko, hoglander, dermott, schenn and burroughs need new deals

let's fire dermott, schenn and burroughs into the sun and replace them with league min guys. that's 2.25 mil

let's hold hoglander to his QO. that's 0.875 for 3.125 total so far

horvat gets 5.875 (to make our numbers prettier) and we're at 9 mil

3 mil for kuzmenko except you have to worry about the bonus carryover. if the canucks can't clear cap this year (they need to drop 3.5 mil plus whatever the bonus amount is) then that gets pushed to next season. let's say they all have off years and they only 'earn' 500k in cap. so 2.5 mil for kuzmenko

you can squeeze a little more space out by burying stillman and poolman and replacing them with league min guys (about 750k for both) but then you have 5 guys making league min on your defense next to hughes, oel and myers. still, maybe kuzmenko is worth it and is signable at 3.25 mil

probably not though. and horvat probably doesn't come in at such a nice number. it's probably more like 6.5 or even 7. and running that many league min players also isn't realistic

the canucks need to move a contract. pearson maybe gets it done but more likely it has to be myers, garland, boeser or horvat

 

[mouser]

nice to see this because i've been critical of their attention to detail. this explains the klim over woo 'paper' roster spot. i wish the SOIR rules were better documented because i assumed that di giuseppe would cost $0

kudos to management. good work

SOIR is based on the % of days a player spent on the NHL roster, not NHL games played. This % includes time spent on IR and healthy scratched. Di Giuseppe was on the NHL roster for 39 days last season.

There is a threshold that any player who was on the roster for 50 NHL games isn’t eligible for SOIR and has their cap hit count in full.

 

[Vector]

they're really not

they have a little under 12 mil in cap space next year

horvat, kuzmenko, hoglander, dermott, schenn and burroughs need new deals

let's fire dermott, schenn and burroughs into the sun and replace them with league min guys. that's 2.25 mil

let's hold hoglander to his QO. that's 0.875 for 3.125 total so far

horvat gets 5.875 (to make our numbers prettier) and we're at 9 mil

3 mil for kuzmenko except you have to worry about the bonus carryover. if the canucks can't clear cap this year (they need to drop 3.5 mil plus whatever the bonus amount is) then that gets pushed to next season. let's say they all have off years and they only 'earn' 500k in cap. so 2.5 mil for kuzmenko

you can squeeze a little more space out by burying stillman and poolman and replacing them with league min guys (about 750k for both) but then you have 5 guys making league min on your defense next to hughes, oel and myers. still, maybe kuzmenko is worth it and is signable at 3.25 mil

probably not though. and horvat probably doesn't come in at such a nice number. it's probably more like 6.5 or even 7. and running that many league min players also isn't realistic

the canucks need to move a contract. pearson maybe gets it done but more likely it has to be myers, garland, boeser or horvat

Just to go further with the numbers.

Canucks currently have $71,012,083 in cap commitments for next season against a projected cap of 83.5m. There's also a maximum of 2.165m in performance bonuses that could be due. Let's pretend all of them magically hit their max. That leaves the Canucks with a little over 10.3m in space while needing to fill 4 roster spots and paying 2 RFAs.

Any Horvat and Kuzmenko extensions would immediately eat into all the space leaving no room to resigns RFAs and upgrade the defence. Given the difficult trade market this season and the slight cap increase for the upcoming season, I'm thinking we're going to see a very similar off-season in terms of trades. So, yeah, I don't think the Canucks are in a good place and moves have to happen even if they want to retain the same team.

Now, it's silly to worry about that specific of a number now given how much rosters change over the course of a season.

 

[credulous]

Now, it's silly to worry about that specific of a number now given how much rosters change over the course of a season.

for sure. i'm not making a prediction about what will happen. just illustrating that this team can't be kept together without at least one major move

 

[credulous]

SOIR is based on the % of days a player spent on the NHL roster, not NHL games played. This % includes time spent on IR and healthy scratched. Di Giuseppe was on the NHL roster for 39 days last season.

There is a threshold that any player who was on the roster for 50 NHL games isn’t eligible for SOIR and has their cap hit count in full.

my confusion was that the source i used to figure out the SOIR stuff implied (if not outright stated) that players had to play at least 1 nhl game to start accruing days

 

[Ruthervin]

Agreed that Benning should never have let Tanev walk. Absolutely terrible move. We could sure use Tanev right now eh? Having said that, Tanev isn't an "all-situations" guy. He's more of a defensive-defensemen. OEL is the Edler replacement (i.e. can play both PP and PK, can generate if offence is used in that role, can take on tough match-ups, etc.). Tanev is a great guy to be the steady rock solid defensive guy alongside the flashy offensive generating d-man, but Tanev isn't the type of guy that is going to produce offence.

Going back to that post 2020 bubble off-season, I would have made it a priority to sign Tanev while still attempting to trade for OEL. Bye Bye Markstrom and Toffoli, while buying out Virtanen to make room for Tanev.

 

[mouser]

my confusion was that the source i used to figure out the SOIR stuff implied (if not outright stated) that players had to play at least 1 nhl game to start accruing days

There’s no SOIR requirement to play a single NHL game.

Maybe the source was wrong or one of those lost in translation moments.

 

[RutherPlan]

Just realized that if Canucks didn't have dead cap this year(expires next year) they would have the 9th lowest cap hit in the league while being the 6th youngest team. It also means with Ferland and the dead cap off the books, almost 6 million is freed up next season.

Masterful job by Canucks management, they are in one of the best positions in terms of cap, age group, and playoff contention.

 

[andora]

Just realized that if Canucks didn't have dead cap this year(expires next year) they would have the 9th lowest cap hit in the league while being the 6th youngest team. It also means with Ferland and the dead cap off the books, almost 6 million is freed up next season.

Masterful job by Canucks management, they are in one of the best positions in terms of cap, age group, and playoff contention.

I think the average age for cup winners has been between 28-29 recently

2 years !!! Lol

There’s no SOIR requirement to play a single NHL game.

Maybe the source was wrong or one of those lost in translation moments.

@credulous

We both read it wrong earlier. Mouser explained it well to me.. i found a different place last night that explained it a lot simpler.. like 3 sentences simpler hehe

 

[Petey O]

Just realized that if Canucks didn't have dead cap this year(expires next year) they would have the 9th lowest cap hit in the league while being the 6th youngest team. It also means with Ferland and the dead cap off the books, almost 6 million is freed up next season.

Masterful job by Canucks management, they are in one of the best positions in terms of cap, age group, and playoff contention.

Wtf I love Jim Benning and Wormtongue now.

 

[me2]

Just realized that if Canucks didn't have dead cap this year(expires next year) they would have the 9th lowest cap hit in the league while being the 6th youngest team. It also means with Ferland and the dead cap off the books, almost 6 million is freed up next season.

Masterful job by Canucks management, they are in one of the best positions in terms of cap, age group, and playoff contention.

Half of that $6m has already gone to Miller and the other half will go in bonuses.

 

[Yultron]

Half of that $6m has already gone to Miller and the other half will go in bonuses.

I really don’t see a way how Horvat is coming back , I hope I’m wrong but unless Myers is traded or OEL Horvat is gone by the deadline . Because you’re right basically half of that is gone to Miller and Kuzmenko and others need contracts as well and Bo wants 7+ million .

 

[4Twenty]

masterful job. 3 deals that expire in July 2023…..still expire in July 2023.

 

[Javaman]

The clock on OEL has already started. It’s only a question of how quickly he breaks down. Over under is probably you get 1.5 more seasons out of him before he starts to decline precipitously due to age and injury.

oel was bad last year. myers was also bad. this market/fanbase gave oel and myers way too much credit for not being disasterous. that pairing was in the bottom third of the league for effectiveness. they got absolutely dominated on zone entries and they were awful at zone exits. they don't bring much offense altho to be fair they were blocked by quinn hughes in that respect. their on ice (actual) results were slightly better than expected based on their metrics but that's mostly down to demko's incredible performance last year

the canucks are paying 13.25 mil for that pairing and it's getting outperformed by pairings making a fraction of that

I've come to operate under the assumption that posts by @Ruthervin are intended to be pure sarcasm. I could be wrong, but they just make more sense that way.

 

[Ruthervin]

I've come to operate under the assumption that posts by @Ruthervin are intended to be pure sarcasm. I could be wrong, but they just make more sense that way.

I mean, if that's how you perceive my posts that's perfectly fine, but I still see a lot of value in OEL. As I said, he can play the role of Hughes if Hughes goes down with injury (i.e. PP QB + drive play from the back-end), or he can be used in his current role of being that two-way all-situations guy that takes on tough match-ups and alleviates significant pressure off of Hughes.

I know OEL-Myers had some very good 5 on 5 stats last year but as other have posted in this thread, there is also strong evidence to suggest that they were ineffective in many situations.

My bottom line is this: Are OEL-Myers overpaid? Yeah probably. Should they ever be a team's 1st pairing? No, and I think most would agree with that. In my opinion however, and this is where me and most might disagree, I think OEL-Myers is a solid 2nd pairing (albeit, overpriced).

Put these guys on a 2nd pairing and I see these guys performing well for us. And no - I don't think OEL will start to decline in 1.5 years as some have stated. OEL's style of game isn't physically demanding like an Edler and so I can see OEL being the same level that he is now until the end of the 2025-2026 season. The only season where I think OEL will start to sharply decline is his final season.

Speaking of which, it's also one of the biggest reasons why I believe that the Canucks absolutely need to get a top pairing defenseman that can play alongside Hughes and take over the teams' top pairing.

Not only does the presence of said defenseman make Hughes and said guy the top pairing on the team, but it pushes OEL-Myers to a 2nd pairing where they would have less pressure, and hence, more longevity as defensemen (i.e. ensuring that we get 3 more decent years out of OEL as opposed to him getting run down).

That's why I'm in favour of trading for Jakob Chychrun right now even if it means blowing up our farm. Yes, Chychrun isn't Victor Heyman, but Chychrun-Hughes would be a pretty decent top pairing.......with OEL-Myers being a pretty decent 2nd pairing. All of a sudden, our pop-gun defense goes to being a 11th-13th overall calibre D (with our forwards and goaltending easily in the top 8).

Anyway, just my opinion. No sarcasm intended.

p.s._________________Do you think it's possible that you, as well as some others, simply want to hate on OEL and Myers (or be overly critical of them) due to the fact that they were Benning signings?

 

[Tomatoes11]

But again, he’s normally be the 5th best but Myers and Dermott (LH but plays both sides pretty equally) are hurt.

Of the players we have available, he’s the 3rd best. Past him you have Juulsen, Keeper, Woo who are all nothing even close to NHL players.

And you actually think with D this bad that us taking a step back for one year is unrealistic?! Lol talk about being ludicrously delusional.

 

[MS]

And you actually think with D this bad that us taking a step back for one year is unrealistic?! Lol talk about being ludicrously delusional.

It's ludicrous to think that any ownership group would sign off on it.
It's ludicrous to think we'd actually be able to out-tank the likes of Montreal.
It's ludicrous to think that we just magically bounce back from that and are suddenly good again like nothing ever happened, and that our core players wouldn't be affected by this or would want to stay.

 

[credulous]

oel and myers are a pretty mediocre second pairing even ignoring their contracts. with their contracts taken into account they're easily the worst pairing in the league

you can maybe shelter oel on the third pairing and get some (on ice) value out of him as a secondary option when hughes needs a rest but myers is just a pure waste of space. he's one of the worst dmen in the league at holding the blue line and he gets abused by forecheckers. people think he's okay because he gets his stick in passing lanes and throws some nasty hits but he's the worst dman on the team apart from poolman and maybe stillman

 

[Ruthervin]

And you actually think with D this bad that us taking a step back for one year is unrealistic?! Lol talk about being ludicrously delusional.

The Canucks, with Boudreau, proved last year that there are ways for a team to compensate for a bad D (i.e. tighten things up, focusing on team defense as a whole, etc.). Canucks finished the season 34-16-10 over their last 60 games. In that stretch, they had one of the lowest GA while their GF was about middle of the pack.

 

[Tomatoes11]

It's ludicrous to think that any ownership group would sign off on it.
It's ludicrous to think we'd actually be able to out-tank the likes of Montreal.
It's ludicrous to think that we just magically bounce back from that and are suddenly good again like nothing ever happened, and that our core players wouldn't be affected by this or would want to stay.

I don’t know if you are a homer, lack an objective bone in your body, or just daft or worse but it’s not unrealistic at all. In fact, plenty of teams in much better situations than our own have done it recently and will do so in the future.

The Canucks, with Boudreau, proved last year that there are ways for a team to compensate for a bad D (i.e. tighten things up, focusing on team defense as a whole, etc.). Canucks finished the season 34-16-10 over their last 60 games. In that stretch, they had one of the lowest GA while their GF was about middle of the pack.

I think you should see how we do this season when we don’t have to play catch up before you declare anything. I think you and a lot of folks are going to be unpleasantly surprised after this upcoming season.

 

[MS]

I don’t know if you are a homer, lack an objective bone in your body, or just daft or worse but it’s not unrealistic at all. In fact, plenty of teams in much better situations than our own have done it recently and will do so in the future.


I think you should see how we do this season when we don’t have to play catch up before you declare anything. I think you and a lot of folks are going to be unpleasantly surprised after this upcoming season.

There are no teams in better situations that have tanked for the #1 overall pick recently. Or anywhere close.

You are living in a fantasy land.

 

[Tomatoes11]

There are no teams in better situations that have tanked for the #1 overall pick recently. Or anywhere close.

You are living in a fantasy land.

Toronto and Colorado . You are living in delusional land or your IQ is low or both.

Plus there are numerous teams in much better shape than us that have taken a step back recently that I can bring up if you wish. Of course you will just ignore them somehow to fit your pathetic narrative.

 

[Josepho]

i don't even completely disagree with your thesis but the 2015 leafs were f***ing dogshit lmao and colorado wasnt even tanking

i think in a vacuum you can probably get 1/2 players on board for a few down years, but i don't think it would work in this case where player morale has already been extremely low for a while. and there's absolutely no chance we'd catch any of arz/chi/mon/sj.