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LW Patrik Laine (2016, 2nd, WPG) XVI

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Randy Randerson said:
I was wrong, he said "this year", still though the odds of shooting better than 20% while being an elite goal scorer are incredibly low, there's a couple of guys a year on average that do it but they're almost always 20-30 goal scorers who are selective shooters

I think pre-draft, Laine's rep was that he shoots from anywhere, so I would think that will translate at some point. He might end up with a lower-than-average shooting % for top goal scorers but a lot of shots, probably meaning more goals

I do see him as a perennial richard candidate
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I agree. What's been amazing so far is the fact that Laine has been able to beat goalies consistently. His shots have been going in on higher pace than is sustainable, but the goals have been nice. He's beating goalies with elite plays, not because of luck.

Will be interesting to see where he ends up. I think top-10 in goals is a realistic possibility right now. A lot of hockey left to play though.
 
Booster said:
So, we agree that calling it luck as an other poster did is a flat-out lie?

Yes, around 5 of 18 games he played on that line, basically always facing the other teams top Ds and top line, you are correct.

https://www.nhl.com/news/fantasy-hockey-top-100-forward-rankings-2016-17/c-282775028?tid=277729150 Laine too low, otherwise an OK forward ranking.
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a shooting percentage in his realm has to have a luck element, that doesn't mean he's scoring garbage goals, but getting breaks that won't happen all the time. For example, his first goal against the leafs he picked the puck up at 15-20 feet away from our net while skating away from the net, turned and fired a shot through a defender that went bar-down over Andersens shoulder - that play isn't going to work 23.5% of the time, sometimes it gets blocked by the defender, sometimes it gets stopped by the goalie, sometimes it hits the crossbar, sometimes it sails over the net. Pretty play where his talent was on full display, but not a high percentage conversion

Playing with line mates of that calibre is a recipe for success, even against top D pairings. Matthews faces those kind of matchups too, but if you call Nylander and Ehlers similar, do you think Schiefele is an upgrade over Hyman? Laine has been well positioned for success with that line


Not sure what the fantasy rankings relevance is
 
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Plural said:
I agree. What's been amazing so far is the fact that Laine has been able to beat goalies consistently. His shots have been going in on higher pace than is sustainable, but the goals have been nice. He's beating goalies with elite plays, not because of luck.

Will be interesting to see where he ends up. I think top-10 in goals is a realistic possibility right now. A lot of hockey left to play though.
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Playing with Schiefele and Ehlers will help, I'd be surprised if he's under low-mid 30's at the end of the year and not very surprised if he's over 40
 
Randy Randerson said:
Playing with Schiefele and Ehlers will help, I'd be surprised if he's under low-mid 30's at the end of the year and not very surprised if he's over 40
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Yup. Last season 33 goals was good enough for tied 10th place spot. If Laine can be in the mid-30's he will have a good chance to break the top-10.

But like I said, a lot of hockey left to play.
 
psycho_dad said:
And you think Scheifele would be the scoring leader if he did not have a guy on his wing who leads the league in scoring?
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Touche on that argument. I am sure this applies to anyone playing with the current leader in goals in the NHL. Look at Ehlers stats now compared to just 2 weeks ago.
 
Randy Randerson said:
a shooting percentage in his realm has to have a luck element, that doesn't mean he's scoring garbage goals, but getting breaks that won't happen all the time. For example, his first goal against the leafs he picked the puck up at 15-20 feet away from our net while skating away from the net, turned and fired a shot through a defender that went bar-down over Andersens shoulder - that play isn't going to work 23.5% of the time, sometimes it gets blocked by the defender, sometimes it gets stopped by the goalie, sometimes it hits the crossbar, sometimes it sails over the net. Pretty play where his talent was on full display, but not a high percentage

Playing with line mates of that calibre is a recipe for success, even against top D pairings. Matthews faces those kind of matchups too, but if you call Nylander and Ehlers similar, do you think Schiefele is an upgrade over Hyman? Laine has been well positioned for success with that line


Not sure what the fantasy rankings relevance is
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So, now you say it´s luck again, show me those lucky goals as i´m soon running out of pop-corn! :popcorn:

Somehow Laines shots just happen to go top-corner more than others, hmm :sarcasm: spending many hours almost every day growing up, shooting at coke-bottles in the corners of a hockey-goal, when he was not playing hockey sure can´t have anything to do with that... yeah let´s go with luck. ;)


Fantasy rankings project player production based on performance. That is very relevant. Is it too hard to understand?
 
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TIGERCOOL said:
The point stands that the best shooters of our generation shoot around 17-18%
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Yes, that is for career. First of all, Mike Ribeiro finished a season with 25% shooting percentage. Why is it that the best shooter in the world can't reach Mike Ribeiros numbers? Yeah, Laine's percentage will go down and shot volume will go up. We are seriously talking about the best shooter in the world, he does not go by what ever guidelines or standards of inferior shooters and goal scorers. He is the new benchmark, at least right now until someone else comes and sets a new baseline.

TIGERCOOL said:
They don't shoot over 20 anymore, let alone near 25. The game just doesn't allow it. You guys need to at least concede that Laine's career shooting % is exceedingly likely to settle below 20%. This year included.
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Laine does not operate in the "what is achievable for a normal player" world. He simply does not compare to the majority or to the "what can you expect"...he is breaking the mold. I do not know of a more accurate shooter and I have watched the game for 30 years passionately. So to me, him having a shooting percentage of something that is abnormal, is exactly what is expected from him.

Usain Bolt shaved of several tenths of a second from the world record in 100 meter dash when he entered the sprint world. Messi set new standards for how much you can score in soccer. Laine is looking like that kind of a player for hockey, along with McDavid.

I'm sorry that I can't yet see Matthews as that, I do see him as one of the best young rookies in recent memory and in my opinion ahead of Jack Eichel. He will absolutely be a franchice center for the leafs and maybe crack 100 pts in a season. I just think Laine is generational, and as a shooter might be the best ever...at least I have not seen a better one. His ceiling is...I don't even know anymore. Lemieux with a better shot?

What is "sustainable" for the majority, is not a standard Laine has ever lived by. He is that special.
 
Booster said:
So, now you say it´s luck again, show me those lucky goals as i´m soon running out of pop-corn! :popcorn:

Somehow Laines shots just happen to go top-corner more than others, hmm :sarcasm: spending many hours almost every day growing up, shooting at coke-bottles in the corners of a hockey-goal, when he was not playing hockey sure can´t have anything to do with that... yeah let´s go with luck. ;)


Fantasy rankings project player production based on performance. That is very relevant. Is it too hard to understand?
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We live in a world where luck/chance plays into every single aspect of our lives. Maybe Laine is the singular exception to that....or maybe you're delusional

If he utterly controls his own outcomes, why isn't he shooting 100%?

Fantasy rankings are based off of a players performance through the filter of fantasy point allotment in the Yahoo standard pool setup....I'll check, but I'm pretty sure the NHL doesn't use that ranking system. - yep, I was right
 
psycho_dad said:
And you think Scheifele would be the scoring leader if he did not have a guy on his wing who leads the league in scoring?
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No doubt Laine helps Schiefele but it still doesn't change the fact that Laine is playing wing with a 1st line centreman. I also realize he played himself on to the top line but that's where him playing wing helps at this stage. Matthews did much the same on team NA. Played himself on to first line wing and excelled at it. There is no chance in hell Laine would be centering a first line right if he played that position much the same as Matthews didn't for team NA. Leafs are obviously looking long term though.

I dont have to look far to see Mitch Marner playing wing with the Leafs on an established line to see how much it's helping him. He certainly isn't better than Matthews despite the stats.
 
Purity said:
What were his numbers like last year when he was moved to #1C?
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Scheifele is great, and I definitely think he is one of the best young centers in the game. I think he leads the league in points for past 50 games or so.

But to pretend that other people would have been "just as good" as the NHL leading scorer on that line is foolish. Laine IS the best goal scorer out there and it benefits Scheif as much as it benefits Laine. You can't say that "If Matthews played wing for a 1# C"...isn't he supposed to be the #1 C? Because it's pretty damn apparent that Laine is a #1 wing.
 
psycho_dad said:
Scheifele is great, and I definitely think he is one of the best young centers in the game. I think he leads the league in points for past 50 games or so.

But to pretend that other people would have been "just as good" as the NHL leading scorer on that line is foolish. Laine IS the best goal scorer out there and it benefits Scheif as much as it benefits Laine. You can't say that "If Matthews played wing for a 1# C"...isn't he supposed to be the #1 C? Because it's pretty damn apparent that Laine is a #1 wing.
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Not the answer I was expecting but OK.

Scheifele torched the league the last 24 games last season with no Laine on his wing. I'm not saying Laine doesn't positively benefit him but don't act like Scheif can't do it without him, because he definitely can.

Once laine gets up to 40-50 goals it'll definitely be boosting Scheif's numbers as well.
 
Randy Randerson said:
We live in a world where luck/chance plays into every single aspect of our lives. Maybe Laine is the singular exception to that....or maybe you're delusional

If he utterly controls his own outcomes, why isn't he shooting 100%?

Fantasy rankings are based off of a players performance through the filter of fantasy point allotment in the Yahoo standard pool setup....I'll check, but I'm pretty sure the NHL doesn't use that ranking system. - yep, I was right
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Ok, now attacking me personally, you are looking, if possible even more pathetic that way.

What you can´t get in to your head is that he shoots that well that 20% or more is very reachable, especially if you would know hockey and watch his games. Neither which seems to apply to you.

Toronto made a mistake at draft day, picking the (probably) second best player in the draft, 2 bad, no cups for you!
 
I expect his shooting percentage will stay around 20%, while he won't be leader in SOGs.

Like ever.

It'll likely go even more "abnormal" (in sense a temporary changes in 'luck" will influence to it less and less) in long run as his skills and physique will be more adapted to NHL, chemistry with line mates better etc.

Absolute shooting % may and probably will go downwards, but his very well sustainable accuracy will remain very high anyway regardless of total amount of accumulated shots.

If you score goal from your changes, it is also automatic consequence your Shooting percentage remain high. No alchemy here. (one won't transfer a percent from a paper to an ice, but other direction it works very well)
 
Booster said:
Ok, now attacking me personally, you are looking, if possible even more pathetic that way.

What you can´t get in to your head is that he shoots that well that 20% or more is very reachable, especially if you would know hockey and watch his games. Neither which seems to apply to you.

Toronto made a mistake at draft day, picking the (probably) second best player in the draft, 2 bad, no cups for you!
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TIL Laine's shot is monumentally better than every elite scorer in the NHL.
8% better than Ovechkin, 7% higher than Tarasenko. Does that sound easily reachable to you?
 
Jackson14 said:
No doubt Laine helps Schiefele but it still doesn't change the fact that Laine is playing wing with a 1st line centreman. I also realize he played himself on to the top line but that's where him playing wing helps at this stage. Matthews did much the same on team NA. Played himself on to first line wing and excelled at it. There is no chance in hell Laine would be centering a first line right if he played that position much the same as Matthews didn't for team NA. Leafs are obviously looking long term though.

I dont have to look far to see Mitch Marner playing wing with the Leafs on an established line to see how much it's helping him. He certainly isn't better than Matthews despite the stats.
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Does there happen to be an easy reference guide anywhere where we could see how much Laine and Scheifele have participated in each others' goals in the form of assists?

edit: If my hasty maths are correct, about six of Laine's goals were Scheifele-assisted, and 5 of those were secondarily. (Slight error +-1 posssible). Laine has assisted 2 Scheifele goals.
 
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4thline said:
I'll take that action. If Laine maintains a shooting percentage greater than 21% over his first two seasons while maintaining a greater than .5gpg pace (with a minimum 140 gp and no change to goalie equipment or significant alteration to league scoring) I'll keep a Laine avy for the duration of my time on HF boards, and be happy doing it because it means that he has transcended the game and truly is generational. What stake you offering? I'll extend that to anyone willing
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Put up or shut up boys.
 
Purity said:
Not the answer I was expecting but OK.

Scheifele torched the league the last 24 games last season with no Laine on his wing. I'm not saying Laine doesn't positively benefit him but don't act like Scheif can't do it without him, because he definitely can.

Once laine gets up to 40-50 goals it'll definitely be boosting Scheif's numbers as well.
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I am not going to make this into a Scheifele thread, since this is a Laine thread. But I would be re-missed if I didn't say the 2 benefit each other. To downplay why Scheifele has taken another step forward as a player this year, in that it has nothing or very little to do with Laine would show me people have seen very little of Jets games this year. It would be utter denial to say they do not compliment each other. A reason why Maurice has kept them together. Scheifele is better this year, the eye test says this and his stats bare this out too. I doubt he would be leading the NHL in scoring if he was playing without Laine and give credit to Ehlers too. Good players make good players better, it is not a one way street with these 3.
 
Purity said:
NI'm not saying Laine doesn't positively benefit him but don't act like Scheif can't do it without him
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I never have suggested that, so don't ask me to not act like I have not been acting. Right?

And you should not pretend that Scheifele would be racking up as much points without the best goal scorer in the game.
 
Actually Laine's shot selection has been pretty selective....he is passing off the puck, quite a bit. Not wildly taking shots from all over the place. Is also dropping back quickly, when opposition has the puck.

Smart kid.
 
psycho_dad said:
You do know that there will be a change in goalie gear, so this bet would be void.
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Propose an alteration then.

50 goals and stays above 23% this year? (to account for the shorter sample)
Adjustment factor for a league wide increase in sh% the second year?
 
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