LW Patrik Laine (2016, 2nd, WPG) XVI

[The Cannon of Tesoma]

Projection Scenario

We have that little skirmish there going on between our two heroes. Their productions now are:

Laine in 18 games: 12G + 5A = 17pts
Matthews in 16 games: 6G + 6A = 12pts

Their linear projections over all 82 games of season would be now:

Laine: 54-55G + 22-23A = 76-78Pts
Matthews: 30-31G + 30-31A = 60-62Pts

If we assume that Laine's production would be halved for rest of his games (64), while Matthew's production would be doubled (66) then we get Linear projections:

Laine: 33-34G + 13-14A = 46-48Pts
Matthews: 55-56G + 55-56A = 110-112Pts

Example scenario is absurd as it would be extremely unlike if both players stay healthy and play all their games left, but it shows also that even with halved production pace, Laine's contribution wouldn't be that bad for rookie at the end of the regular season. Instead it is only very remotely plausible that Matthews could keep up doubled pace for rest of the season to ever get anywhere near those numbers.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

If the only argument you have for '' MATTHEWS > LAINE AINEC '' is that he plays center then seriously dont bother.

Way to cherry pick my argument. Quality of line-mates coupled with a more difficult position and worse puck luck (Laine is shooting 25%) makes a huge difference. Also, the sky is blue.

Anyone who's actually bothered to closely watch both prospects play (probably 10% of the posters here) would take Matthews in a heartbeat. It's clear as day.

 

[Booster*]

Oh no, the leafs fans are back at it

1 point in 8? games does that to you, especially when you had perhaps the worlds best goal-scorer right there in front of your nose... and passed on him

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Nope, Laine is not centering Laine..

You guys... You don't actually think Laine is better than Schiefele.... Do you?

Please, say it isn't so

 

[Booster*]

Way to cherry pick my argument. Quality of line-mates coupled with a more difficult position and worse puck luck (Laine is shooting 25%) makes a huge difference. Also, the sky is blue.

Anyone who's actually bothered to closely watch both prospects play (probably 10% of the posters here) would take Matthews in a heartbeat. It's clear as day.

Show me all his lucky goals.


His shot is just THAT good.


Go instead to the Matthews thread now and tell your buddies how good he is.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Show me all his lucky goals.


His shot is just THAT good.


Go instead to the Matthews thread now and tell your buddies how good he is.

No one's shot is THAT good. If he shot 25% this year that would be the highest shooting percentage in LEAGUE HISTORY. No one has shot near 20% since the 1980's. Guys... Learn hockey.

 

[Plural]

Way to cherry pick my argument. Quality of line-mates coupled with a more difficult position and worse puck luck (Laine is shooting 25%) makes a huge difference. Also, the sky is blue.

Anyone who's actually bothered to closely watch both prospects play (probably 10% of the posters here) would take Matthews in a heartbeat. It's clear as day.

Now you're just being biased. It's true that Matthews has qualities that make him a legitimate #1 OA picks. But it's not clear as day. Laine has been performing on a high level and has closed the gap considerably. The gap wasn't massive when they were drafted (some scouts even had Laine as #1) and now that we're 20%+ in to the season Laine has made a real case for himself.

Is Matthews snake bitten? Yes. Would he go first if the Leafs had another draft? Yes. Is he the unanimous best player from the draft? Absolutely not.

 

[Booster*]

No one's shot is THAT good. If he shot 25% this year that would be the highest shooting percentage in LEAGUE HISTORY. No one has shot near 20% since the 1980's. Guys... Learn hockey.

You forgot to add a link to his lucky goals.
I´m still waiting

 

[Plural]

No one's shot is THAT good. If he shot 25% this year that would be the highest shooting percentage in LEAGUE HISTORY. No one has shot near 20% since the 1980's. Guys... Learn hockey.

This is wrong again. There has been seasons where players shoot close to 20%. 73 times players have had 19% or more since the lockout 05. I did the search with 30 or more games played. If we look at 60 or more games, it's still 43 times.

So maybe you should learn something before arrogantly accusing people of being ignorant? But I don't mind. Nothing feels better than to see uninformed people making clowns of themselves.

 

[4thline]

You forgot to add a link to his lucky goals.
I´m still waiting

Be better if he linked you to a instructional video on the concept of luck as it matters to statistical performance and variation.

Unless you really think that all this luck talk is about Happy Gilmore esque fluke bounces and tap ins?

Or do you really think that he's that much better than every player ever?

I'll take that action. If Laine maintains a shooting percentage greater than 21% over his first two seasons while maintaining a greater than .5gpg pace (with a minimum 140 gp and no change to goalie equipment or significant alteration to league scoring) I'll keep a Laine avy for the duration of my time on HF boards, and be happy doing it because it means that he has transcended the game and truly is generational. What stake you offering? I'll extend that to anyone willing

 

[Randy Randerson]

You forgot to add a link to his lucky goals.
I´m still waiting

No one is saying his goals have been lucky, he's been great while playing in a scenario that allows him to.

there have been 20 guys shoot over 20% for a season in the cap era, only 4 of which had over 30 goals and only one of which had over 40 goals (meaning the majority of the list are much more selective shooters, not elite goalscorers)
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...7&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,70&sort=shootingPctg

Laine would rank #3 on that list, and would be the only guy on it over 50 goals at his current pace.

Do you think that its reasonable to expect him to continue this? you're setting yourself up for disappointment if so

He's going to be/already is a great young goalscorer, but he's not going to shoot 23.5% this year

 

[Slapper]

Way to cherry pick my argument. Quality of line-mates coupled with a more difficult position and worse puck luck (Laine is shooting 25%) makes a huge difference. Also, the sky is blue.

Anyone who's actually bothered to closely watch both prospects play (probably 10% of the posters here) would take Matthews in a heartbeat. It's clear as day.

So you changed your argument to '' no one is that good ''. When you have something else than theory to show as argument we'll talk.

 

[Lempo]

You can't seriously say Laine isn't at a massive advantage playing wing with the Jets best player centering him vs Matthew's playing centre with 2 rookies. Nylander is good no doubt but Hyman is not.

If we just compare player to player, shouldn't it rather be a recommendation for than a slight at him that Laine has, mostly due to his own credit, managed to put himself in the best place to succeed? You don't long play first liner in NHL if you're not deemed worth of being one.

One could say "of course because my team is much more stacked than yours!", but, well, everyone can see the standings, so wouldn't you be in fact implying that he's the best in a sorry lot that just somehow seems to be picking a lot of points from the games?

 

[Randy Randerson]

This is wrong again. There has been seasons where players shoot close to 20%. 73 times players have had 19% or more since the lockout 05. I did the search with 30 or more games played. If we look at 60 or more games, it's still 43 times.

So maybe you should learn something before arrogantly accusing people of being ignorant? But I don't mind. Nothing feels better than to see uninformed people making clowns of themselves.

I think he meant career, not 1 season - in that case its 2 guys since 1990 and neither was a big time goal scorer, neither has played since 1995:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,250&sort=shootingPctg

 

[Booster*]

No one is saying his goals have been lucky, he's been great while playing in a scenario that allows him to.

You mean being on a hockey-rink?



Oh, my mistake, it thought someone called it puck-luck, must have misread.

 

[Snowsii]

I think he meant career, not 1 season - in that case its 2 guys since 1990 and neither was a big time goal scorer, neither has played since 1995:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,250&sort=shootingPctg

He said: "This year" that means in a season..

 

[psycho_dad*]

Who is better?

 

[Randy Randerson]

You mean being on a hockey-rink?



Oh, my mistake, it thought someone called it puck-luck, must have misread.

I mean he has good linemates on a team that's trending in the right direction. Plays with Schiefele and Ehlers, correct?

He said: "This year" that means in a season..

fair enough, still unlikely

 

[Do or Die]

Forget stats.....eyeballs tell me this guy will score a lot of goals....in a lot of different ways....in a lot of games...

 

[Booster*]

I mean he has good linemates on a team that's trending in the right direction. Plays with Schiefele and Ehlers, correct?

So, we agree that calling it luck as an other poster did is a flat-out lie?

Yes, around 5 of 18 games he played on that line, basically always facing the other teams top Ds and top line, you are correct.

https://www.nhl.com/news/fantasy-hockey-top-100-forward-rankings-2016-17/c-282775028?tid=277729150 Laine too low, otherwise an OK forward ranking.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

He said: "This year" that means in a season..

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/shot_pct_career.html

I was going by this. What I believed to be a reputable site. If it's not the case, so be it. The point stands that the best shooters of our generation shoot around 17-18%

They don't shoot over 20 anymore, let alone near 25. The game just doesn't allow it. You guys need to at least concede that Laine's career shooting % is exceedingly likely to settle below 20%. This year included.

 

[ItchyScratchy77]

I mean, look at Laine's goal from the last game. He was wide open in front of the net, but Buff still decides to make the worse play and try a wrap-around. A lot of the time i feel like he wouldn't pass to Laine if his life depended on it.

Agreed. Buff, seems to me that he's being selfish with the puck looking for his first goal.

As long as the Jets win though.

 

[Plural]

I think he meant career, not 1 season - in that case its 2 guys since 1990 and neither was a big time goal scorer, neither has played since 1995:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,250&sort=shootingPctg

Ah, that would make more sense. And no, I don't think Laine is going to have a career shooting % of 20. He's riding a hot streak and the stats will even out.

 

[cotopaxi]

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/shot_pct_career.html

I was going by this. What I believed to be a reputable site. If it's not the case, so be it. The point stands that the best shooters of our generation shoot around 17-18%

They don't shoot over 20 anymore, let alone near 25. The game just doesn't allow it. You guys need to at least concede that Laine's career shooting % is exceedingly likely to settle below 20%. This year included.

That's fine because his shot volume is going to go up as he gets more comfortable in the league.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Ah, that would make more sense. And no, I don't think Laine is going to have a career shooting % of 20. He's riding a hot streak and the stats will even out.

I was wrong, he said "this year", still though the odds of shooting better than 20% while being an elite goal scorer are incredibly low, there's a couple of guys a year on average that do it but they're almost always 20-30 goal scorers who are selective shooters

I think pre-draft, Laine's rep was that he shoots from anywhere, so I would think that will translate at some point. He might end up with a lower-than-average shooting % for top goal scorers but a lot of shots, probably meaning more goals

I do see him as a perennial richard candidate