LW Juraj Slafkovsky - TPS Turku, Liiga (2022, 1st, MTL) Part 2

[GermanSpitfire]

I remember the Jagr draft and thinking teams passing on him were making a huge mistake. Getting the same sense with this guy. Big, skilled, and competes. And he’s got that “it” factor, which can’t be measured. Wright is a good pick, but imagine passing on Jagr - again.

Jagr would have went top 2, probably #1 that year but he wanted to play with Mario in Pittsburgh.
So he told Quebec, Detroit, Philly and Vancouver he didn’t want to play in North America right away so they passed on him.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I worry about his lack of production for his club team. If a team isn't worried about that, it's hard not to be impressed with his international tournament production.

 

[bsu]

I remember the Jagr draft and thinking teams passing on him were making a huge mistake. Getting the same sense with this guy. Big, skilled, and competes. And he’s got that “it” factor, which can’t be measured. Wright is a good pick, but imagine passing on Jagr - again.

He's not Jagr though lol far from it.

 

[alko]

Are you saying that Slafkovsky is as good as Jagr? Because that seems very very unlikely.

He only quoted Jagr: "Oh man, he is better that me in his age".

 

[Hisch13r]

I remember the Jagr draft and thinking teams passing on him were making a huge mistake. Getting the same sense with this guy. Big, skilled, and competes. And he’s got that “it” factor, which can’t be measured. Wright is a good pick, but imagine passing on Jagr - again.

Slaf is not Jagr. Also the reason teams passed on Jagr was that he was only coming over to play for the Pens

 

[Frk It]

Historically, just blindly looking at stats has done very well in comparison to these NHL scouts that get paid millions of dollars. Actually, many years drafting for pure stats with zero concern for everything else has even outperformed said NHL scouts.

What's the most recent draft we can reasonably go back to, 2017? Here, too, scouts spent all year scouting and rationalizing, while being paid millions.

Take the OHL picks for example(forwards, no overagers).
Draft order:

Tippett
Vilardi
Suzuki
Thomas
Frost
Ratcliffe
Robertson
Formenton
Studnicka
Gadjovich

That's where we got by paying millions. Now, blindly statwatching:

Suzuki
Robertson
Tippett
Gadjovich
Thomas
Strome
Frost
Vilardi
Lodnia
Ratcliffe

The big hits are Robertson, Suzuki, Thomas. All top 5 when just statwatching - Robertson is 7th by scouts. Statwatching top 2 was Suzuki and Robertston, scouts got them 3rd and 4th. Now, perhaps there are more absolute busts when just statwatching, but considering the top end it's still safe to say that statwatching outperformed these NHL scouts being paid millions(once again). And we've seen this over and over again, DeBrincat first comes to mind from 2016.


With that said, you also have several other issues with your post. You use Rantanen to make a point, but Rantanen still had much better production than Slafkovsky. You use the argument "Well Kakko produced well so this argument is worthless", but surely you remember that Kakko also scored well internationally, which is a point you're using to push Slafkovsky?
.

Now, on Rantanen specifically, Rantanen's skating improved at a remarkable rate soon after getting drafted - far more than I've seen the skating of any Finn his size improve. We could bank on that or something similar happening for Slafkovsky, but by default I would bet against it.

Furthermore, you make the point about TPS and opportunity, but did you actually watch any of the games as you so have to speculate? If so, you'd realize that TPS gave Slafkovsky opportunities - very strong opportunities right after the Olympics, even. But he could not deliver, and hence got put back down in the lineup. Because TPS was a contender(finished second) and they can't have Slafkovsky in a bigger role if their goal is to win.


All this is to say: 1. Your logic is not sound and 2. Stats are important for NHL projections, often outperforming NHL scouts.

This was a long, well thought out post, so I wanted to wait until I could sit down at a computer and respond.

Ideally you want players that have production and a great set of skills, without a doubt.

But there have been some cases where players didn't have the sexiest production, but have a great set of tools, and were drafted high and worked out well. This is why scouts exist. We clearly have different views on the importance of scouting/watching players, so I am sure we are going to arrive at different conclusions, and that's fine.

But do you remember the Brady Tkachuk thread on here? All year people said his freshman year at BU was underwhelming and he was overrated. Ottawa took him 4th. He had 30 goals and 67 pts this year in 79 games. That one worked out pretty well.

I have seen you be critical of his play in Liiga pretty consistently on here, and I am sure you have seen him play there more than I have. But what I have seen from him in international tournaments has been very impressive. I don't think you often see guys with his combo of size/skill/skating. There are a number of reasons guys can have varying success in a men's league as a teenager.

 

[Xirik]

I remember the Jagr draft and thinking teams passing on him were making a huge mistake. Getting the same sense with this guy. Big, skilled, and competes. And he’s got that “it” factor, which can’t be measured. Wright is a good pick, but imagine passing on Jagr - again.

I know lots of people instantly foam at the mouth when you compare anyone to Jagr but I think they're style is pretty comparable. Now I don't think Slaf will be as good as Jagr in his prime. I think Slafs upside is somewhere between Jagr's NY Ranger years and post ranger years.

*hides from angry pitch fork people*

 

[Hisch13r]

About the stat watching. I think something that wasn't mentioned is that Slafkovsky didn't have as big of a role in the team as for example Kakko and Rantanen did. He played on YV2 and had a bit over 1/3 of the overall YV time that Kakko and Rantanen had. He also had less overall ice time, at 14:11 a game, while Kakko was at 18:11 and Rantanen at 16:14. Anyway not making any claims based on these stats, just reminding that if you're stat watching there is more to it than just PPG. EDIT: And also quality of linemates. Kakko played in an elite 1st line. Rantanen played with weak linemates even though he became a 1st liner during the season, because all of the good players from the team were sold before deadline. Slafkovsky also played with weak linemates, his whole line played above their place as the team was stacked in D+G with weak offense after the 1st line.

I mean P/60 was also posted which adjusts for ice time and Slaf was still comfortably behind the rest of the pack. It comes down to if you think the linemate difference was so substantial that it makes up for a huge production difference

 

[57special]

If Slaf is even close to Jagr then Montreal races to the podium to pick him 1 oa.

 

[Fatass]

He's not Jagr though lol far from it.

Only time will tell. But almost always, when the top pick is a good but not great player (like this draft) there will be one or two guys picked just after who are fabulous. Look at the Heischer draft for example. The Habs will be happy with Wright, but the team drafting Stafloski just might be celebrating an all time great. Not the best year to be drafting 1OA.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Only time will tell. But almost always, when the top pick is a good but not great player (like this draft) there will be one or two guys picked just after who are fabulous. Look at the Heischer draft for example. The Habs will be happy with Wright, but the team drafting Stafloski just might be celebrating an all time great. Not the best year to be drafting 1OA.

Slafkovsky will not be an all time great lol

 

[Faterson]

Slafkovsky will not be an all time great lol

But Stafloski just might.

 

[Fatass]

Slafkovsky will not be an all time great lol

No one knows this. But what we do know is he is the one guy in this draft with a ceiling of greatness. Do teams let that slip through their fingers, like done with Jagr?

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Slafkovsky will not be an all time great lol

Never ceases to amaze me how confident some HFBoards users are in their ability to predict the future.

 

[Fatass]

Never ceases to amaze me how confident some HFBoards users are in their ability to predict the future.

Exactly. Super hard to win even one Cup without great players who have the “it” factor. In this draft Stafloski appears to be that guy. Lots of good players, who will help teams too, but if a team wants the guy who (might?) bring “it” then Stafloski is the one.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

No one knows this. But what we do know is he is the one guy in this draft with a ceiling of greatness. Do teams let that slip through their fingers, like done with Jagr?

How is he "the one guy in this draft with a ceiling of greatnes"? He's not even a consensus 2nd overall pick, let alone the best player in the draft, so if you're going to claim his ceiling as greatness...guys like Wright or Cooley also have ridiculous ceilings.

 

[tmlmatus]

How is he "the one guy in this draft with a ceiling of greatnes"? He's not even a consensus 2nd overall pick, let alone the best player in the draft, so if you're going to claim his ceiling as greatness...guys like Wright or Cooley also have ridiculous ceilings.

Just because someone has a high ceiling doesn't mean that they don't also have a low one too. Slafkovsky is rated all over the place cause he is a risky pick.

I do think he has the highest ceiling of all the draft picks tho. But so did guys like Puljujarvi.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Just because someone has a high ceiling doesn't mean that they don't also have a low one too. Slafkovsky is rated all over the place cause he is a risky pick.

I do think he has the highest ceiling of all the draft picks tho. But so did guys like Puljujarvi.

I agree with you and all the other posters Slafkovsky has a high ceiling, but I disagree with the claim he is the one guy with a ceiling that high.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

No one knows this. But what we do know is he is the one guy in this draft with a ceiling of greatness. Do teams let that slip through their fingers, like done with Jagr?

Cooley, Casey, and Lambert have the higher ceilings IMO. Possibly Wright as well. Stop comparing him to Jagr.

Never ceases to amaze me how confident some HFBoards users are in their ability to predict the future.

Yes, so very bold of me to claim that Slafkovsky will not be a Jagr caliber player.

 

[Vaslof]

Cooley, Casey, and Lambert have the higher ceilings IMO. Possibly Wright as well. Stop comparing him to Jagr.


Yes, so very bold of me to claim that Slafkovsky will not be a Jagr caliber player.

Lambert's floor is so low that you can't see the ceiling anymore.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Yes, so very bold of me to claim that Slafkovsky will not be a Jagr caliber player.

Well, that's not exactly what you said in the post I replied to, but anyways; Yes, it's a very safe position to take, but there's still no way for you to know.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well, that's not exactly what you said in the post I replied to, but anyways; Yes, it's a very safe position to take, but there's still no way for you to know.

All time great = Jagr caliber player, no?

There's no way for me to know that Cooley won't break Gretzky's scoring records, but I am quite comfortable making the claim that he won't.

 

[Fanatik]

Slafkovsky will not be an all time great lol

All he has to be is better than Kakko

 

[Hisch13r]

All he has to be is better than Kakko

Which also is far from a lock

 

[Ippenator]

Well, that's not exactly what you said in the post I replied to, but anyways; Yes, it's a very safe position to take, but there's still no way for you to know.

Wow! What a comment! There wouldn’t be any discussions on these boards, if predictions weren’t allowed. And who are you to say that his prediction is bold? It’s his prediction based on what he has seen from Slafkovsky. He might even be wrong in the end, but honestly I see it very likely that he will be right after all. And I do like Slafkovsky quite a lot. But I see him becoming a good NHL class power forward at best.

But even how promising Slafkovsky seems - he doesn’t honestly look like an all time great potential. To look like that at his age you have to show already real world class skill and hockey IQ. I definitely like Slafkovsky a lot. He is big and strong, has good skating for his size, a good shot (although needs to get it off a bit quicker) and relatively good puck skills and hockey IQ. But I see definitely nothing all time great kind of special in his skills and hockey IQ. His ceiling at best could be a bit below Rantanen as a player and his floor is probably somewhere around Puljujärvi. And of course I might be wrong after all, but this is anyway my prediction.