LW Juraj Slafkovsky - TPS Turku, Liiga (2022, 1st, MTL) Part 2

[Jukurit]

I mean it depends on how you interpret all this data.

Lius Andersson has been pretty bad, so Raymond having a Points/60 less than him makes you think he would be a crap top 5 choice. It wasn't.

How come Kakko isn't better than Rantanen when he had a way better points/60. That shouldn't be true, right?

This is why NHL teams spend millions of dollars to deploy scouts all over the world to watch players and don't just draft the highest producing players possible.

If Slafkovsky hadn't played in several international tournaments and looked super impressive, I would have more time for the argument you guys are trying to make. His production in Liiga could come down to his linemates, or his deployment, or a number of things.

I mean I couldn't tell you why the hell Raymond didn't play more in the SHL his +1 year when we just saw what he did in his +2 year in the NHL. Makes his coach look pretty dumb to me.

Interesting thing: Lias Andersson had 107.48 PDO in his draft year, which is quite high. So Andersson overachieved in points by good amount and wasn't as good as his point totals indicate.

But enough about swedish prospects.

Slafkovsky still clearly ranks towards the bottom in that Liiga P/60 comparison, which is at the least slightly concerning. If he had around 2.00 P/60 or something, I don't think I would have even posted that comparison, since it would not have been noteworthy.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Slovakian winger Juraj Slafkovsky turned heads with a dominant performance at the 2022 Olympic Games. With seven goals in seven games, he led Slovakia to a historic bronze medal. Slafkovsky led the tournament in points and was named both the tournament MVP and part of the All-Star Team. He also had a strong showing at the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament where he helped his country to a silver medal. Slafkovsky scored three goals and six assists for nine points in five tournament games. He also represented his country at the World Junior Hockey Championships as well as the IIHF World Championships.

Juraj Slafkovsky Scouting Report: 2022 NHL Draft #4

Juraj Slafkovsky Scouting Report: Slovakian winger Juraj Slafovsky turned heads with a dominant performance at the 2022 Olympic Games.

lastwordonsports.com

 

[bsu]

I have him (big skilled), Kemell (absolute sniper), Savoie (speed and skill) neck and neck for my 3rd forward after Cooley and Wright. I like Slafkovsky at #3. Depends on what kind of player you want and what kind of players you have, I like all 5 of these players a lot.

 

[Ippenator]

How do you know it's impressive production if you don't know how it compares to other Swedish prospects?

Raymond was a guy who had pretty underwhelming raw stats in a men's league in his draft year, but looked great in international tournaments, and a team drafted him highly because they bet on his skillset. It's worked out pretty well so far.

Same could end up being true with Slafkovsky.

What an unbelievably lame comment. To know what kind of point production is good for a young player in a certain league, you don’t need to know exactly how the other young players did around that time. Historical knowledge about that league for several past years can be enough for understanding the level of point production, at least approximately.

 

[Peasy]

I have him (big skilled), Kemell (absolute sniper), Savoie (speed and skill) neck and neck for my 3rd forward after Cooley and Wright. I like Slafkovsky at #3. Depends on what kind of player you want and what kind of players you have, I like all 5 of these players a lot.

I feel like that is the theme of this draft. There's so many players that are similar in terms of potential impact. I think what type of prospect fits best with your team needs will play a large factor in where each player goes rather than the typical strictly BPA approach.

 

[Frk It]

What an unbelievably lame comment. To know what kind of point production is good for a young player in a certain league, you don’t need to know exactly how the other young players did around that time. Historical knowledge about that league for several past years can be enough for understanding the level of point production, at least approximately.

The 3rd sentence of your post contradicts the 2nd sentence of your post.

Interesting thing: Lias Andersson had 107.48 PDO in his draft year, which is quite high. So Andersson overachieved in points by good amount and wasn't as good as his point totals indicate.

But enough about swedish prospects.

Slafkovsky still clearly ranks towards the bottom in that Liiga P/60 comparison, which is at the least slightly concerning. If he had around 2.00 P/60 or something, I don't think I would have even posted that comparison, since it would not have been noteworthy.

It is a reasonable/legitimate concern. I was just trying to present the counter-argument.

Clearly the industry has a reason for having Slafkovsky ranked 2/3 despite the production.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I have him (big skilled), Kemell (absolute sniper), Savoie (speed and skill) neck and neck for my 3rd forward after Cooley and Wright. I like Slafkovsky at #3. Depends on what kind of player you want and what kind of players you have, I like all 5 of these players a lot.

Don't sleep on Lambert!

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

For those who are dismissive of the Puljujarvi comparison, I encourage you to watch some Puljujarvi prospect tape.

He was flat out incredible as a 16 year old at the WJC. One of the most dominant underage performances I can recall, yet by some miracle didn't register a point. (sidenote, he and Aho always seem to have such incredible chemistry, Hurricanes should really be pushing to acquire him):


His Liga highlights are quite reminiscent of what Slafkovsky has shown:


I do think Puljujarvi is probably a better player than his numbers suggest, and could still become a more dominant player in the right situation (cough Carolina cough) where he can regain some confidence. But I think expecting Slafkovsky to become significantly better than JP is probably unreasonable.

 

[Jukurit]

I just hope Slafkovsky doesn't get rushed to NHL. Seems to be a common thing with big/tall high draft picks in recent years (Byfield, Dach, Kotkaniemi, Puljujärvi).

 

[Ippenator]

The 3rd sentence of your post contradicts the 2nd sentence of your post.


It is a reasonable/legitimate concern. I was just trying to present the counter-argument.

Clearly the industry has a reason for having Slafkovsky ranked 2/3 despite the production.

No it doesnt. You don’t need to compare the results to the other young players. You can get the idea of how well the young player is doing with comparing his stats to what the league has generally had in the previous years.

 

[Frk It]

No it doesnt. You don’t need to compare the results to the other young players. You can get the idea of how well the young player is doing with comparing his stats to what the league has generally had in the previous years.

The way you get “what the league had generally had in previous years” involves comparing similarly aged players over that time frame.

Maybe something is getting lost in translation here, I don’t know.

 

[Ippenator]

The way you get “what the league had generally had in previous years” involves comparing similarly aged players over that time frame.

Maybe something is getting lost in translation here, I don’t know.

Probably nothing lost in translation, as I’m originally American and have used English on a daily basis all my life. Unless your native language isn’t English. Anyway, you seem to have a very black and white-way of looking at it. And that’s what I’m criticising here.

An example - I have been following Swedish hockey with a bit of interest for already over three decades. But I follow mostly how the Finnish players and their teams are doing. I don’t have any big interest in the Swedish players though, so I don’t follow any of them specificly as individual players. During those decades I have still got a pretty good understanding what the Swedish league is about and how hard it is to score in that league.

I have also learned that it’s quite a tough league for especially young players, which means that young players don’t often get to play there in a big role. An under 20 year old offensive player is doing really well in that league, if he can have point production around 0,5 PPG. It’s really that tough league for scoring points. When I check from Eliteprospects.com, I can see that Raymond had in his last Elitserien season about 0,5 PPG, so that tells me already that he had a pretty darn good season for his age, although I wasn’t following him as a player much either. I wouldn’t remember what kind of PPG Holtz or any other Swedish young talent had lately, but by the tens of years of general experience I know anyway that Raymond’s last Elitserien season was really pretty good, especially for his young age.

To me your comments in this matter tells pretty much that you don’t understand how a certain league can be followed with different kinds of interests and approaches. You have your approach and that’s fine, but the world isn’t black and white in this matter, as it usually isn’t in most things in life.

 

[Hisch13r]

For those who are dismissive of the Puljujarvi comparison, I encourage you to watch some Puljujarvi prospect tape.

He was flat out incredible as a 16 year old at the WJC. One of the most dominant underage performances I can recall, yet by some miracle didn't register a point. (sidenote, he and Aho always seem to have such incredible chemistry, Hurricanes should really be pushing to acquire him):


His Liga highlights are quite reminiscent of what Slafkovsky has shown:


I do think Puljujarvi is probably a better player than his numbers suggest, and could still become a more dominant player in the right situation (cough Carolina cough) where he can regain some confidence. But I think expecting Slafkovsky to become significantly better than JP is probably unreasonable.

I don't see how he's getting a better situation than the one he's in. He spend nearly 2/3rds of his 5v5 time this year with McDavid.

I just hope Slafkovsky doesn't get rushed to NHL. Seems to be a common thing with big/tall high draft picks in recent years (Byfield, Dach, Kotkaniemi, Puljujärvi).

I'm not sure he'll be in the league this year. I do think his D+2 he'll be in the league but I think you might be better off still not having him up at that point

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I don't see how he's getting a better situation than the one he's in. He spend nearly 2/3rds of his 5v5 time this year with McDavid.



I'm not sure he'll be in the league this year. I do think his D+2 he'll be in the league but I think you might be better off still not having him up at that point

I don't think playing with McDavid is actually that good for a player like him.

 

[alko]

Probably nothing lost in translation, as I’m originally American and have used English on a daily basis all my life.

Im using Slovak all my life and still there are moments, i dont understand Slovak people.

 

[scoutman1]

I just hope Slafkovsky doesn't get rushed to NHL. Seems to be a common thing with big/tall high draft picks in recent years (Byfield, Dach, Kotkaniemi, Puljujärvi).

i agree, players are rushed so often now that they have trouble adjusting to the play in the NHL...

 

[Guttersniped]

Historically, just blindly looking at stats has done very well in comparison to these NHL scouts that get paid millions of dollars. Actually, many years drafting for pure stats with zero concern for everything else has even outperformed said NHL scouts.

What's the most recent draft we can reasonably go back to, 2017? Here, too, scouts spent all year scouting and rationalizing, while being paid millions.

Take the OHL picks for example(forwards, no overagers).
Draft order:

Tippett
Vilardi
Suzuki
Thomas
Frost
Ratcliffe
Robertson
Formenton
Studnicka
Gadjovich

That's where we got by paying millions. Now, blindly statwatching:

Suzuki
Robertson
Tippett
Gadjovich
Thomas
Strome
Frost
Vilardi
Lodnia
Ratcliffe

The big hits are Robertson, Suzuki, Thomas. All top 5 when just statwatching - Robertson is 7th by scouts. Statwatching top 2 was Suzuki and Robertston, scouts got them 3rd and 4th. Now, perhaps there are more absolute busts when just statwatching, but considering the top end it's still safe to say that statwatching outperformed these NHL scouts being paid millions(once again). And we've seen this over and over again, DeBrincat first comes to mind from 2016.


With that said, you also have several other issues with your post. You use Rantanen to make a point, but Rantanen still had much better production than Slafkovsky. You use the argument "Well Kakko produced well so this argument is worthless", but surely you remember that Kakko also scored well internationally, which is a point you're using to push Slafkovsky?

Furthermore, a player producing well and failing to perform in NHL, is not exactly comparable to a player producing poorly and then performing great in NHL. There are very few examples of the latter happening, while there are tons of examples of players performing well in NHL after producing well in Liiga. So using Kakko to devalue the entire thing doesn't make a whole lot of sense - there are exceptions.

Now, on Rantanen specifically, Rantanen's skating improved at a remarkable rate soon after getting drafted - far more than I've seen the skating of any Finn his size improve. We could bank on that or something similar happening for Slafkovsky, but by default I would bet against it.

Furthermore, you make the point about TPS and opportunity, but did you actually watch any of the games as you so have to speculate? If so, you'd realize that TPS gave Slafkovsky opportunities - very strong opportunities right after the Olympics, even. But he could not deliver, and hence got put back down in the lineup. Because TPS was a contender(finished second) and they can't have Slafkovsky in a bigger role if their goal is to win.


All this is to say: 1. Your logic is not sound and 2. Stats are important for NHL projections, often outperforming NHL scouts.

Rantanen had way better production?

Ok.

 

[FrankMTL]

Rantanen had way better production?

View attachment 556208

Ok.

Why are you comparing Slafkovsky's draft season to Rantanen's D-1 season? Shouldn't you compare Slafkovsky's 2021-2022 season to Rantanen's 2014-2015 season? Unless I'm not understanding the comparison...

 

[Takurcitee]

Well rantanen was older in his dy than slaf

He was 17 his whole d-1 and slaf was 17 most of his dy

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well rantanen was older in his dy than slaf

He was 17 his whole d-1 and slaf was 17 most of his dy

Rantanen is only 5 months older for their respective draft years, so it makes more sense to compare their draft year production.

The comparison to Rantanen is pretty terrible IMO. Both guys being big and surprisingly elusive. But their approach to the game is 100% different.

 

[Vaslof]

I wouldn't compare Slafkovsky to Kakko or Rantanen. They just played for the same team, that's where the similarities end. What will make Slafkovsky a high pick is that he's a big, strong, physical player, with skills and shot to score goals. Stats wise, his performance in Liiga was good for a pre-draft year, but not exceptional. However in international games he was scoring like crazy, and that will earn him points in the eyes of the scouts. If he works out as a pick (still needs to keep improving as most prospects do), I would think he's more like a Landeskog or a Matthew Tkachuk type player that every team wants to have around.

 

[Fatass]

I remember the Jagr draft and thinking teams passing on him were making a huge mistake. Getting the same sense with this guy. Big, skilled, and competes. And he’s got that “it” factor, which can’t be measured. Wright is a good pick, but imagine passing on Jagr - again.

 

[Vaslof]

About the stat watching. I think something that wasn't mentioned is that Slafkovsky didn't have as big of a role in the team as for example Kakko and Rantanen did. He played on YV2 and had a bit over 1/3 of the overall YV time that Kakko and Rantanen had. He also had less overall ice time, at 14:11 a game, while Kakko was at 18:11 and Rantanen at 16:14. Anyway not making any claims based on these stats, just reminding that if you're stat watching there is more to it than just PPG. EDIT: And also quality of linemates. Kakko played in an elite 1st line. Rantanen played with weak linemates even though he became a 1st liner during the season, because all of the good players from the team were sold before deadline. Slafkovsky also played with weak linemates, his whole line played above their place as the team was stacked in D+G with weak offense after the 1st line.

 

[Guttersniped]

For those who are dismissive of the Puljujarvi comparison, I encourage you to watch some Puljujarvi prospect tape.

He was flat out incredible as a 16 year old at the WJC. One of the most dominant underage performances I can recall, yet by some miracle didn't register a point. (sidenote, he and Aho always seem to have such incredible chemistry, Hurricanes should really be pushing to acquire him):


His Liga highlights are quite reminiscent of what Slafkovsky has shown:


I do think Puljujarvi is probably a better player than his numbers suggest, and could still become a more dominant player in the right situation (cough Carolina cough) where he can regain some confidence. But I think expecting Slafkovsky to become significantly better than JP is probably unreasonable.

Puljujärvi had trouble getting comfortable in his first stint in NA since he spoke so little English. He also had his (genetic?) hip problems that caused problems/pain for a while until his double hip surgery in March 2019.

Player development didn’t go as one would hope there, that happens with a lot of players for a variety of reasons.

At the 2015 U18 in his age 16 season, Puljujärvi (7 GP 2G 5A 7 Pts) played with Laine (7 GP 8G 3A 11 Pts) and Aleski Saarela (7GP 3G 5A 8 Pts).

On the All-Star Team from the Finns (who won Silver): Goalie: Veini Vehviläinen, Defencemen: Vili Saarijärvi and Forward: Patrik Laine
Goalie Vehviläinen also won the IIHF Best Player Award (Goalie).

At the 2015 U20 Puljujärvi didn’t score any points but the whole Finnish team scored 8 goals in 5 games and 4 of them were scored by Rantanen. Puljujärvi played with Aho, Laine wasn’t there.

The Finns lost 1-2 SO to USA w/ Demko, with Ville Husso in their net (Rantanen with the only goal.) Puljujärvi did have 5 shots (out of 29).

Then the Finns lost 1-2 to SVK w/ Tournament MVP Denis Godla in net, with Juuse Saros in their net. (Rantanen scored the only goal.) Puljujärvi did have 6 shots (out of 38).

Then the Finns lost 4-1 to CAN w/ Zach Furcale, with Saros in net. (Arturi Lehktonen scored the only goal.) Puljujärvi did have 7 shots (out of 28).

Then the Finns won 2-0 vs Germany. Rantanen &
Julius Honka with the goals, Husso with the win and Puljujärvi with 5 shots (out of 38).

In the Quarterfinals the Finns lost 6-3 to Sweden. Rantanen, Juuso Ikonen, & Kasperi Kapanen with the goals, Husso with the loss, and Puljujärvi with 3 shots (out of 33).

At the 2016 U18 in his age 17 season, Puljujärvi (4GP 5G 2A 7 Pts) memorably had a hat trick in the Gold Medal game 6-1 win against Sweden. Puljujärvi played mostly with Janne Kuokkanen (7GP 3G 4A 7 Pts) & Otto Sampi (7GP 1G 1A 2 Pts) after arriving late due to the Liiga playoffs.

On the All-Star Team from the Finns (who won Gold): Goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Forward: Puljujärvi

It was at the 2016 U20 where Puljujärvi (7GP 5G 12A 17 Pts), Aho (7GP 5G 9A 14 Pts), and Laine (7GP 7G 6A 13 Pts) formed Voltron.

On the All-Star Team from the Finns (who won Gold): Defenseman: Olli Juolevi and Forwards: Puljujärvi & Laine
Puljujärvi also won IIHF Best Player (Forward) & Tournament MVP

 

[Jukurit]

I remember the Jagr draft and thinking teams passing on him were making a huge mistake. Getting the same sense with this guy. Big, skilled, and competes. And he’s got that “it” factor, which can’t be measured. Wright is a good pick, but imagine passing on Jagr - again.

Are you saying that Slafkovsky is as good as Jagr? Because that seems very very unlikely.