- Aug 16, 2015
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Lucas Raymond
- Thread starter raymond23
- Start date
RedHawkDown
still trying to trust the yzerplan
If only the rest of the team gave a shit as much as this guy.
Steve Yzerlland
Registered User
- Jul 18, 2018
- 8,774
- 4,433
We need 5 more forwards like him to have a good team...
Gonna be our best player in about a year, if not sooner
Henkka
Registered User
Yeah, seeing how Raymond has responded on this losing streak has been probably the most positive thing of this season.
Everybody else did hit the 60-game wall, but this is kid is still going.
Easy future alternate Captain on the side of Larkin.
Human beings are dumb and reactionary.
Henkka
Registered User
The discussion about his contract will be interesting, because there's already two great examples from the same draft class.
Tim Stutzle, got 8.35M 8-year deal on last year, which was exactly 10.0% of the salary cap. Raymond is gonna sign against 87.5M cap, so this is the comparison figure.
Alexis Lafreniere, got only 2-year deal. 2.325M, 2.78% of cap.
Stutzle 3-year production
223 games, 78+134 = 212 points (0.95 ppg)
Raymond 3-year production
224 games, 62+97 = 159 points (0.71 ppg)
Lafreniere 3-year production
228 games, 54+58 = 112 points (0.49 ppg)
So, in 3-year sample size, Raymond is 75% of Stutzle and 145% of Lafreniere.
75% of Stutzle (10% vs. 83.5M cap) against 87.5M cap would be 6.627M for 8 years.
145% of Lafreniere (2.78% vs. 83.5M cap) against 87.5M cap would be 3.696M for 2 years.
If I build a scale from these comparables based 100% on production only:
Lucas Raymond extension possibilities:
1-year, 3.52M
2-year, 3.70M
3-year, 4.01M
4-year, 4.27M
5-year, 5.07M
6-year, 5.67M
7-year, 6.18M
8-year, 6.63M
Tim Stutzle, got 8.35M 8-year deal on last year, which was exactly 10.0% of the salary cap. Raymond is gonna sign against 87.5M cap, so this is the comparison figure.
Alexis Lafreniere, got only 2-year deal. 2.325M, 2.78% of cap.
Stutzle 3-year production
223 games, 78+134 = 212 points (0.95 ppg)
Raymond 3-year production
224 games, 62+97 = 159 points (0.71 ppg)
Lafreniere 3-year production
228 games, 54+58 = 112 points (0.49 ppg)
So, in 3-year sample size, Raymond is 75% of Stutzle and 145% of Lafreniere.
75% of Stutzle (10% vs. 83.5M cap) against 87.5M cap would be 6.627M for 8 years.
145% of Lafreniere (2.78% vs. 83.5M cap) against 87.5M cap would be 3.696M for 2 years.
If I build a scale from these comparables based 100% on production only:
Lucas Raymond extension possibilities:
1-year, 3.52M
2-year, 3.70M
3-year, 4.01M
4-year, 4.27M
5-year, 5.07M
6-year, 5.67M
7-year, 6.18M
8-year, 6.63M
Last edited:
norrisnick
The best...
- Apr 14, 2005
- 31,173
- 16,486
Stutzle signed his contract after his 2nd year. Not his 3rd.
132 games, 34+53 = 87 points (.66 ppg)
Henkka
Registered User
It does affect only for putting the numbers more right, when there's more years for comparison. The signing moment does mean for the different sized of cap, and that's already in on calculations.
Guys are same aged and from same draft, this has most weight from any comparables (after Lafreniere, both wingers, but don't believe on so short term). 1 UFA year less inside the deal for Stutzle will mean ~750 per that year and on 8-year scale that goes under ~100k per year. So it doesn't mean much. The production level will mean. And Ice-time also has huge difference.
Raymond can't anymore sign after his 2nd year, to make it full equal, but the comparable will always be Stutzle's contract progress and projections as well as Lafreniere's. Or, if Jarvis, Lundell or Byfield will sign before Raymond, then we will have more comparables in the mix.
Raymond is not outproducing anyone of the top picks from earlier drafts either (like Hughes or Boldy), so there's not a single factor what could push his caphit to sky-high numbers. It's just now, we kind of know that he is looking good, and when he has started looking his greatness, but you need to be that over a season-lasting period. He struggled at last season, and that will drag his numbers down. That's on him.
Sens did gamble and it was a good gamble for them. But comparables are - comparables. They are there, pushing the market price down. Sometimes up. This time it's down.
if he signs an 8 year deal, it will be way more than 6.63, and if he signs a bridge, it will be way more than 4
Shaman464
No u
I hope not, he’s a sub PPG winger. ADB got less than 8 million and he’s has multiple 40 goal seasons to his name. Even at his current pace Raymond won’t hit 70 points in a season where there could be three players that score double that. 6x6 feels right for his production, age, position and the fact he’s a not a defensive stalwart.
He's literally the top U22 scorer in the league. He's gonna get paid.
Detroit Knights
Registered User
- Feb 29, 2012
- 3,602
- 2,105
Raymond has definitely been a bright spot these past few games. He is throwing his weight around to gain space and knock others off the puck, creating turnovers. Great stuff.
If Berggren could just shown this....damn.
Looks like Raymond is developing a pretty decent shot now. Always had a good one, but looks like he is putting it all together. That goal he had mano-e-mano with the goalie was great to see against pitt.
If Berggren could just shown this....damn.
Looks like Raymond is developing a pretty decent shot now. Always had a good one, but looks like he is putting it all together. That goal he had mano-e-mano with the goalie was great to see against pitt.
Shaman464
No u
Because Stützle turned 22 a couple months ago and Bedard broke his jaw? Like this is the most disingenuous argument ever. He will be 22 in a couple weeks and then he’s no where near either Hughes or quiet a few other players that are under 25.
Shaman464
No u
We’re talking about league scoring, this isn’t the early 2010s where being near PPG is a good to great showing. His PPG isn’t anywhere near a the level worth 7+ million dollars a year. Hes played well given the team he’s on but we need to pump the breaks on over valuing him.
Matt Boldy got 7M a year off a 63 point season a year ago and this year Raymond is damn close to him PPG.
Yes, Stutzle, Hughes and Bedard are all above him in PPG this year. Conceded.
Who else is that's 22 or under?
He has 2, as you can see.
Morris Seider has none.
Raymond has made a huge step forward this year. He has played great in 2024. He can definitely be one of the reasons we make playoffs this year.
Shaman464
No u
Bodly has a better PPG over his first two seasons. 0.65 vs 0.80 or about a 20% difference. But a lot of Wild fans considered 7m an overpayment based on his production hoping he’d grow into the contract and would exceed the value on its back end.
Perfect Human
Registered User
- Dec 17, 2014
- 1,623
- 1,132
One of my most common sayings is “people are dumb” I will add reactionary. That is a more true statement.
- Aug 16, 2015
- 536
- 852
I would give Ray 8 years * $7M without blinking. Cap will be up a bunch...it will never be a bad contract even if this is his peak (which I doubt). Doesn't seem like a Stevie thing to do unfort.
Henkka
Registered User
That's a good take.
Matt Boldy scored 0.80 points per game at same age as Raymond now. Those 1,5 seasons and 128 games.
Raymond has scored 0.72 points per game on his last 2 seasons, comparable seasons for Boldy.
Boldy contract was 7 years, 8.48% against the cap.
Raymond comparable contract would be 0.72/0.80 = 7,632% share of 87.5M cap = 6.678M.
And if plus/minus is any factor, Boldy was +18 and Raymond has been -37 from this period.
So you are saying that part of contract negotiations for developing NHL players involves some amount of assumed progression? You mean to tell me that GMs and agents agree on a projection to strike a fair deal that gives a player certain guarantees and the team is betting on the player exceeding the value of the salary? That they would take into account the likelihood of a rapidly correcting salary cap and that the contract would age well in a few years?
Never would have imagined that...
