Lucas Raymond

[norrisnick]

Idk if A 2% technicality uproots the main point with the analogy. Too much too long.

You're also comparing Morgan Freeman with Miss Daisy.

Ray drives. Skinner is a passenger.

I could see 4x 7.125 or 3x7.375. If it’s a 8 year deal, I see it closed to 6.8.

Yzerman is good at getting value on resigning players. I think Lucas only wants to be a wing based on his body language and responses to questions about the team and who he liked as a kid

Did you mean 8.6 for an 8 year deal? 8 years is not going to be cheaper than 3 or 4. Ray is 21 not 31.

 

[Obe2kenobe]

Lucas……I am your fan sir. The force is strong in young Raymond

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Idk if A 2% technicality uproots the main point with the analogy. Too much too long.

Bridge him and when he does what you’re saying he will be an 8 figure annual player when that three year deal ends.

Cap percentages are how teams build. It is the most important part of the concept, hate 2% but that is a depth roster player impact at some point when we are contending.

You overpay marginally in the next two years so he is making mid 8ish a year when he has exploded into a 30 & 90 guy. With the cap going up he might demand 12 per if he does that in the second and third year of his bridge and that is important. Also, his agent shouldn’t agree to an 8 year deal that doesn’t pay him for his prime expectation. Otherwise you bridge and hammer the team in the next negotiation with arb rights.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Idk if A 2% technicality uproots the main point with the analogy. Too much too long.

Are you really arguing that 8 years is too long to sign a 22 year old? 8m is going to be a bargain with the cap going up like it is. You'd rather he signs for 11.5 4 years down the road?

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Are you really arguing that 8 years is too long to sign a 22 year old? 8m is going to be a bargain with the cap going up like it is. You'd rather he signs for 11.5 4 years down the road?

Large 8 year deals for Raymond/Seider will handcuff us for like one or two years but by the end of the contract they will be bargains.

Cap might hit 110 million by the time those 8 years are up.

 

[Ricelund]

 

[Henkka]

Large 8 year deals for Raymond/Seider will handcuff us for like one or two years but by the end of the contract they will be bargains.

Cap might hit 110 million by the time those 8 years are up.

Still very sceptical to see those 8-year 2nd deals from Yzerman.

5-6 years those will probably be. Just like Larkin. It didn't became a problem. They just did a bargain UFA deal for 8 years after a 6-year deal.

 

[14ari13]

Are you really arguing that 8 years is too long to sign a 22 year old? 8m is going to be a bargain with the cap going up like it is. You'd rather he signs for 11.5 4 years down the road?

Yes I would.

We have Copp, Compher and Holl who are overpaid.
We will get rid of 2,7 M for Vrana after this season and 1 m for abdelkader in 2 years and 0,5 for another guy, I have no idea who he is. That is 4 M.

It will be easier for Yzerman because he will get rid of 4 to 8 M in 2-3 years when he is finished with buyouts and bad deals.

 

[Perfect Human]

You're also comparing Morgan Freeman with Miss Daisy.

Ray drives. Skinner is a passenger.


Did you mean 8.6 for an 8 year deal? 8 years is not going to be cheaper than 3 or 4. Ray is 21 not 31.

yes, I actually did, thanks for the correction, editing now.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think that he's got Sundin right where he wants him, how about you? Probably easily gets 89 points in his next 15 games.

 

[norrisnick]

I think that he's got Sundin right where he wants him, how about you? Probably easily gets 89 points in his next 15 games.

45 points in 3 games.

1. Sundin turned 22 partway through his monster '92-'93 season and that list gives him credit for the full season (still 206 points in 213 games)
2. Ray turns 22 next Thursday.

For funsies I looked up the top 10 NHL scoring Swedes. Sundin being #1 and Backstrom #6. Here are their NHL totals at 22.

2 - Alfredsson - 0GP 0P
3 - Lidstrom - 80GP 60P
4 - Henrik Sedin - 164GP 65P
5 - Daniel Sedin - 154GP 66P
7 - Zetterberg - 0GP 0P
8 - Peter Forsberg - 47GP 50P
9 - Markus Naslund - 85GP 15P
10 - Tomas Sandstrom - 147GP 112P

 

[cvaicunas]

Still very sceptical to see those 8-year 2nd deals from Yzerman.

5-6 years those will probably be. Just like Larkin. It didn't became a problem. They just did a bargain UFA deal for 8 years after a 6-year deal.

I like the baked in safety a bridge deal brings for the team. Sure it may cause us to pay more later, but injuries, development stalling; these are legit concerns for me with a young player. Bridge deals bake in a layer of protection for the team against that. Let him become a star, then we can all agree on paying him per what he can produce.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I like the baked in safety a bridge deal brings for the team. Sure it may cause us to pay more later, but injuries, development stalling; these are legit concerns for me with a young player. Bridge deals bake in a layer of protection for the team against that. Let him become a star, then we can all agree on paying him per what he can produce.

I'm certainly no cap management expert but to me if you want a Cup competitive team for several years you've gotta gamble a bit on players like Seider and Raymond and sign them to long-term deals.

They're both 22 (Raymond turns 22 in a week) so you'll be getting prime years at the end of the deal at what should be well below market value. And I still think this team is at least three seasons away from being a serious playoff threat, though I'd love to be wrong.

 

[RRhoads]

I think Seider should get an 8 year deal for sure, and I don't think there should even be a discussion.

Raymond I can see getting a bridge deal for 2-4 years. Personally, I think the biggest gamble is not giving him an 8 year deal, as the cap hit for his contract in 2-4 years will be a lot higher than now.

How much for an 8 year deal for Raymond? 6.5 to 7.5 would be my guess, and that could turn into a bargain if he continues to improve.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Idk if A 2% technicality uproots the main point with the analogy. Too much too long.

It's 2% of the cap, but when the contract in question is about 10% of the cap, that's a 20% difference. The difference be a 1 mil and 3 mil contract is about 2% of the cap. Hardly a technicality.

We have every reason to believe that Raymond should stay as good as he is or improve further. Skinner signed his deal at 26 when he was in the middle of his prime and likely to start getting worse. He's also useless at everything besides scoring whereas Raymond is emerging as one of our better line drivers. They're completely different as players, at different points in their careers, different trajectories, etc. We have no reason to expect that Raymond is going to score half as many points and goals next year as he is right now. Just because Skinner wasn't a good contract doesn't mean that every winger making good money is a mistake. Would you be unhappy having Matt Tkachuk on an 8*8, what about Marner, Kucherov, etc?


If we get Raymond for 8x8, we should all be really happy. If we bridge him now, we're going to be paying him 11+ afterwards and THAT would be a problem.

 

[Bench]

This run from Raymond really feels like we're watching a star emerging, doesn't it?

Sure, hot streaks happen, but the way he's generating the offense feels like it's sustainable and should only improve as he gains experience and enters his prime. He's looking incredible.

I don't hesitate on a long-term deal. He's a cornerstone piece.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

This run from Raymond really feels like we're watching a star emerging, doesn't it?

Sure, hot streaks happen, but the way he's generating the offense feels like it's sustainable and should only improve as he gains experience and enters his prime. He's looking incredible.

I don't hesitate on a long-term deal. He's a cornerstone piece.

I don't see why not! He's showing the pre-draft potential and now has 200+ NHL games under his belt before age 22. He's done all the right things and taken all the right guidance.

So happy we're seeing the progression into a legit top line play driver. What a time to show it too, with our heart-and-soul captain out and during a sad losing streak. Give him that damn money, especially since the rest of the league still doesn't know about his emergence and his value is not Marner-like just yet.

Hitting the full potential on Seider, Raymond, and soon Edvinsson is seriously going to give this team a long window to compete as long as the rest of the roster players + eventual prospects contribute well enough. Aaaaand a good coach too...

 

[14ari13]

This run from Raymond really feels like we're watching a star emerging, doesn't it?

Sure, hot streaks happen, but the way he's generating the offense feels like it's sustainable and should only improve as he gains experience and enters his prime. He's looking incredible.

I don't hesitate on a long-term deal. He's a cornerstone piece.

I don't know if I would call it a hot streak. He has played great for 2,5 months, 35 games. It is almost half a season. With a full roster he is not slowing down. If DeBrincat can find his scoring touch, we will have 2 dangerous lines. And Copp, Rasmussen and Fischer looked unstoppable.

 

[Snuggs]

It's 2% of the cap, but when the contract in question is about 10% of the cap, that's a 20% difference. The difference be a 1 mil and 3 mil contract is about 2% of the cap. Hardly a technicality.

We have every reason to believe that Raymond should stay as good as he is or improve further. Skinner signed his deal at 26 when he was in the middle of his prime and likely to start getting worse. He's also useless at everything besides scoring whereas Raymond is emerging as one of our better line drivers. They're completely different as players, at different points in their careers, different trajectories, etc. We have no reason to expect that Raymond is going to score half as many points and goals next year as he is right now. Just because Skinner wasn't a good contract doesn't mean that every winger making good money is a mistake. Would you be unhappy having Matt Tkachuk on an 8*8, what about Marner, Kucherov, etc?


If we get Raymond for 8x8, we should all be really happy. If we bridge him now, we're going to be paying him 11+ afterwards and THAT would be a problem.

Highly, highly, doubtful.

Every Winger you used as an example have been and are much better than Raymond, Raymonds not on Tkachuck/Marner/Kucherov level. Silly to think so.

To say he is on that level is just a pure projection. To ground down your art-thou expectations Skinners at least broken 30 goals... I'm just not giving 8x8 to a guy that's not even broken 30 goals and if during the bridge deal he somehow becomes a perennial 40 goal scorer, sure I'll pay him 11 million happily.

This fricken form man, turns every good solid player to HOF level. Can't even hardly like a guy/prospect without vaulting expectations through the ceiling. I mean Kucherov and Raymond in the same sentence... What the heck.

 

[Henkka]

Highly, highly, doubtful.

Every Winger you used as an example have been are are much better than Raymond, Raymonds not on Tkachuck/Marner/Kucherov level. Silly to think so.

To say he is on that level is just a pure projection.

Yeah, on some day, he could be on that level.

But clearly, that's not now.

Also funny how people are throwing those millions and 8-year contracts for him, when he hasn't earned that versus other comparables, who did better.

We know Raymond will be good, then great and finally elite. That's clear, we have seen that. WE KNOW. But there's no need to pay for that potential. Yzerman will pay for what Ray has achieved so far. And that will be a bargain.

 

[The Zermanator]

This run from Raymond really feels like we're watching a star emerging, doesn't it?

Sure, hot streaks happen, but the way he's generating the offense feels like it's sustainable and should only improve as he gains experience and enters his prime. He's looking incredible.

I don't hesitate on a long-term deal. He's a cornerstone piece.

Definitely feels that way to me. The puck seems to be magnetic around him. And if he's on the ice he's in the spotlight making things happen. Has that aura of a special player.

With how natural of a leader he is and how much he's developing his 200ft game, I'm seeing shades of Zetterberg in him. Puck hound, responsible, and dynamic. With Larkin the veteran (weird) and Seider, this team has an awesome leadership group forming. Hopefully those 3 are the ones wearing letters next season.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Highly, highly, doubtful.

Every Winger you used as an example have been and are much better than Raymond, Raymonds not on Tkachuck/Marner/Kucherov level. Silly to think so.

To say he is on that level is just a pure projection. To ground down your art-thou expectations Skinners at least broken 30 goals... I'm just not giving 8x8 to a guy that's not even broken 30 goals and if during the bridge deal he somehow becomes a perennial 40 goal scorer, sure I'll pay him 11 million happily.

This fricken form man, turns every good solid player to HOF level. Can't even hardly like a guy/prospect without vaulting expectations through the ceiling. I mean Kucherov and Raymond in the same sentence... What the heck.

Kucherov signed his contract in 2018 for 9.5M cap hit at a league cap of 79.5M, 11.9% of the cap. This was right after he had his first 100 point season. The same contract today would be 10.4M.

If Kucherov was signing a contract after he put up 120+ pts multiple times, it woudl be closer to 13 or 14M. The point is that signing Raymond to 8x8 gives us a situation where we have a possible 85-90 point player in his prime making 8M on a ~100M cap, which is a much smaller proportion than Kucherov makes today. Nobody is saying we should be paying him that kind of money. If Ray was Kuch, we'd be talking 10 or 11x8, not 8x8.

I would try to go something like 7.8 x 8 , DeBrincat money. And I'm certain Raymond outplays that number.

 

[cvaicunas]

I'm certainly no cap management expert but to me if you want a Cup competitive team for several years you've gotta gamble a bit on players like Seider and Raymond and sign them to long-term deals.

They're both 22 (Raymond turns 22 in a week) so you'll be getting prime years at the end of the deal at what should be well below market value. And I still think this team is at least three seasons away from being a serious playoff threat, though I'd love to be wrong.

I can't disagree, I personally waffle on this topic all the time. There is absolutely a solid case to be made in support of gambling a bit on core pieces. As with anything, there are also examples where this has back fired. Suffice to say, I'm glad it's not me making these decisions.

 

[jaster]

This run from Raymond really feels like we're watching a star emerging, doesn't it?

Sure, hot streaks happen, but the way he's generating the offense feels like it's sustainable and should only improve as he gains experience and enters his prime. He's looking incredible.

I don't hesitate on a long-term deal. He's a cornerstone piece.

This. I’m a Raymond believer. What he’s doing right now, at his age, I’m all in. Just baptize me in that curly, fuzzy mop he has on his head. Not only do I not hesitate on a long-term deal, but I feel like a bridge deal is straight up too risky. Let’s goooooooo!

 

[Henkka]

Still a way to go.