Lucas Raymond

[heyfolks]

It never tasted so good.

 

[Shaman464]

So you are saying that part of contract negotiations for developing NHL players involves some amount of assumed progression? You mean to tell me that GMs and agents agree on a projection to strike a fair deal that gives a player certain guarantees and the team is betting on the player exceeding the value of the salary? That they would take into account the likelihood of a rapidly correcting salary cap and that the contract would age well in a few years?

Never would have imagined that...

Based on a lot of factors and the data on Boldy was that he’s was on a better trajectory over his first two NHL seasons playing mostly with Ek and Johansson who were no where near as good as Larkin and Bert. So more points, worse linemates gets you more money. Never would have imaged that.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Based on a lot of factors and the data on Boldy was that he’s was on a better trajectory over his first two NHL seasons playing mostly with Ek and Johansson who were no where near as good as Larkin and Bert. So more points, worse linemates gets you more money. Never would have imaged that.

Raymond is essentially a full calendar year younger than Boldy. So he broke in a year earlier on a terrible team, whether his linemates were better or not. By age, his development is exceeding Boldy’s at the same age. By experience, both in their third year, statistically speaking they are extremely close in point production.

After today, Raymond has 59 in 69 for 0.855/game. Not including today for Boldy (game is 0-0 in the first at time of writing) he has 53 in 61 for 0.869/game.

You are watching Raymond ascend to a different level of player in real time.

 

[SirloinUB]

Projecting Contract Extensions for Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider

Over the years I’ve had some success in guessing contracts for Red Wings’ players.

prashanthiyer.substack.com

I thought this was a good take on it and this was written before this heater with a project of 8 x 7.9M…


I can see yzerman pushing for a bridge deal but even that would come in higher than some would expect

The league is tending towards paying top young players a higher and higher % of the cap. I can easily see an 8x$7M+

 

[Tetsuo]

If he signs a bridge we're going to get bent over when that deal is done. You sign him to an 8 year deal to something around what Larkin is making IMO. He's going to be such a stud.

 

[14ari13]

31 points in 32 games this year and 33 in his last 34.

 

[TheMule93]

He's the first true bus driver we've drafted since Larkin.

 

[Henkka]

He's the first true bus driver we've drafted since Larkin.

Think Seider was first (since Larkin).

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Don't know that I can recall the last guy we've had that you've watched literally improve week by week over the course of the season.

He started right off the bat taking a clear step from where he was last season, and he's just gotten better as the season has gone on.

 

[GarlicbreadTB]

Can see him being quite clutch in playoffs in the future.

 

[Perfect Human]

Can see him being quite clutch in playoffs in the future.

If you have a chance, go back and watch the highlights from the U18 WJC 2019...He is clutch.

 

[19 for president]

The last time the Wings saw a player make this kind of steady progression was Datsyuk's transition from being a sort of offensive passing center that relied on guys like Hull to score to being this dominant two way threat that challenged as the best forward in the NHL for a few seasons. Not saying Ray will do that level of glow up but his progression this year reminds me a lot of Datsyuk's progression in terms of how much his game has changed. He is no longer a passive player offensively. He has added a real physical element to his game, and no longer gets hemmed into the boards all the time. His transition defense has gotten a lot better. He has become a real puck hound. He can still get better defensively in his own end and has to learn better when to drive himself vs use teammates but that is quite often the case for young players.

I kind of want to see him and Kane together for a bit. I think they could have a better give and go than Kane and DBC at the moment. Kane is trying to force too much to DBC, and I think it is really hurting both of their games 5 on 5.

Let DBC get back into using some of his playmaking skills, and maybe the shooting will come. He's clutching his stick too hard right now.

 

[Konnan511]

That's a good take.

Matt Boldy scored 0.80 points per game at same age as Raymond now. Those 1,5 seasons and 128 games.

Raymond has scored 0.72 points per game on his last 2 seasons, comparable seasons for Boldy.

Boldy contract was 7 years, 8.48% against the cap.

Raymond comparable contract would be 0.72/0.80 = 7,632% share of 87.5M cap = 6.678M.

And if plus/minus is any factor, Boldy was +18 and Raymond has been -37 from this period.

Nope.

 

[norrisnick]

The last time the Wings saw a player make this kind of steady progression was Datsyuk's transition from being a sort of offensive passing center that relied on guys like Hull to score to being this dominant two way threat that challenged as the best forward in the NHL for a few seasons. Not saying Ray will do that level of glow up but his progression this year reminds me a lot of Datsyuk's progression in terms of how much his game has changed. He is no longer a passive player offensively. He has added a real physical element to his game, and no longer gets hemmed into the boards all the time. His transition defense has gotten a lot better. He has become a real puck hound. He can still get better defensively in his own end and has to learn better when to drive himself vs use teammates but that is quite often the case for young players.

I kind of want to see him and Kane together for a bit. I think they could have a better give and go than Kane and DBC at the moment. Kane is trying to force too much to DBC, and I think it is really hurting both of their games 5 on 5.

Let DBC get back into using some of his playmaking skills, and maybe the shooting will come. He's clutching his stick too hard right now.

Don't forget that Raymond now is still 2 years younger than Datsyuk was his rookie year. The Datsyuk that exploded after the lockout was 27yo. Ray is 21. That and I think Ray is more Zetterberg than Datsyuk with his willingness to engage physically rather than trying to be elusive. But even then, the Z that exploded after the lockout was 25yo. There is a lot of room to grow for Ray.

Nope.

I took a screenshot of how Ed got his -1 last night. It's pretty silly.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

The last time the Wings saw a player make this kind of steady progression was Datsyuk's transition from being a sort of offensive passing center that relied on guys like Hull to score to being this dominant two way threat that challenged as the best forward in the NHL for a few seasons. Not saying Ray will do that level of glow up but his progression this year reminds me a lot of Datsyuk's progression in terms of how much his game has changed. He is no longer a passive player offensively. He has added a real physical element to his game, and no longer gets hemmed into the boards all the time. His transition defense has gotten a lot better. He has become a real puck hound. He can still get better defensively in his own end and has to learn better when to drive himself vs use teammates but that is quite often the case for young players.

At this point the only thing that will stop Raymond from being an elite 90p winger is if we can get another legit scoring center and some D who can actually head-man the puck.

He has raised my expectations significantly this season, I had him pegged as a solid, consistent 60-70p first\second line tweener.

 

[schuelma24]

At this point the only thing that will stop Raymond from being an elite 90p winger is if we can get another legit scoring center and some D who can actually head-man the puck.

He has raised my expectations significantly this season, I had him pegged as a solid, consistent 60-70p first\second line tweener.

Agree. Not trying to excuse this recent horrible stretch, but taking the long view... Raymond going from a 1st/2nd line tweener to a legit top line play driver is huuuuuge for the long term rebuild and outweighs crappy veterans playing crappy.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Agree. Not trying to excuse this recent horrible stretch, but taking the long view... Raymond going from a 1st/2nd line tweener to a legit top line play driver is huuuuuge for the long term rebuild and outweighs crappy veterans playing crappy.

I feel ethically obligated to not watch any Wings games for the remainder of the season after tantrumming last night but their future is still looking decent, even if I think they are 100% dead in the water this season.

 

[raymond23]

I feel ethically obligated to not watch any Wings games for the remainder of the season after tantrumming last night but their future is still looking decent, even if I think they are 100% dead in the water this season.

No you have it backwards. You are ethically obligated to WATCH every wings game and react emotionally and in the moment. Join us on this rollercoaster

 

[14ari13]

However, after we play Columbus and the Isles at home we have Nashville, Washington, Carolina, Florida and Tampa on the road. We all know what we have done on the road recently.

It seems we will have Larkin back, Raymond is red hot, Kane is finally finished with his preseason and is PPG, and DeBrincat is so overdue to start finishing the great chances he is been getting.

Don't know that I can recall the last guy we've had that you've watched literally improve week by week over the course of the season.

He started right off the bat taking a clear step from where he was last season, and he's just gotten better as the season has gone on.

I don't think so. He was not good maybe even bad before December. He started getting hot late December.

The last time the Wings saw a player make this kind of steady progression was Datsyuk's transition from being a sort of offensive passing center that relied on guys like Hull to score to being this dominant two way threat that challenged as the best forward in the NHL for a few seasons. Not saying Ray will do that level of glow up but his progression this year reminds me a lot of Datsyuk's progression in terms of how much his game has changed. He is no longer a passive player offensively. He has added a real physical element to his game, and no longer gets hemmed into the boards all the time. His transition defense has gotten a lot better. He has become a real puck hound. He can still get better defensively in his own end and has to learn better when to drive himself vs use teammates but that is quite often the case for young players.

I kind of want to see him and Kane together for a bit. I think they could have a better give and go than Kane and DBC at the moment. Kane is trying to force too much to DBC, and I think it is really hurting both of their games 5 on 5.

Let DBC get back into using some of his playmaking skills, and maybe the shooting will come. He's clutching his stick too hard right now.

I don't think he will ever reach the level of Datsyuk and zetterberg

Don't forget that Raymond now is still 2 years younger than Datsyuk was his rookie year. The Datsyuk that exploded after the lockout was 27yo. Ray is 21. That and I think Ray is more Zetterberg than Datsyuk with his willingness to engage physically rather than trying to be elusive. But even then, the Z that exploded after the lockout was 25yo. There is a lot of room to grow for Ray.


I took a screenshot of how Ed got his -1 last night. It's pretty silly.

I feel ethically obligated to not watch any Wings games for the remainder of the season after tantrumming last night but their future is still looking decent, even if I think they are 100% dead in the water this season.

 

[Chelis Chili]

RED WINGS CLIMB STANDINGS THANKS TO THRILLING WIN ON HOME ICE
A pair of up-and-coming young stars in Lucas Raymond (2-0—2) and Moritz Seider (1-1—2) helped the Red Wings (35-28-6, 76 points) overcome 2-0 and 3-2 deficits, which included a tying goal with 13 seconds remaining in regulation, and set the stage for 17-season veteran Patrick Kane (1-2—3) 48 seconds into overtime. Detroit reclaimed the second Wild Card spot from idle Washington (33-25-9, 75 points), which leapfrogged into the position Monday night.

* Raymond (24-35—59 in 69 GP) established a career high for goals in a single season (23 in 2021-22) and did so thanks to an active five-game goal streak (7-1—8 in 5 GP since March 12). The 21-year-old, with the latest game-tying goal by a Red Wings player since Anthony Mantha (59:53 on Feb. 16, 2019), joined Steve Yzerman (3x; longest: 6 GP in 1983-84) and Norm Ullman (5 GP in 1956-57) as the third player in franchise history with a five-game goal streak before his 22nd birthday.

* Seider, who netted the contest’s first tying tally, scored his 20th career goal (20-109—129 in 233 GP). He joined Reed Larson (37), Steve Chiasson (29), Willie Huber (27) and Red Kelly (26) as the fifth Red Wings defenseman with at least 20 NHL goals at age 22 or younger.

* Kane registered the game-winning goal for the second time in as many home games and tied Auston Matthews (12) for the fourth-most overtime goals by a U.S.-born player in NHL history. In fact, his 74 career game-winning goals tied Joe Pavelski for the fifth most by a U.S.-born player in League history and moved within three of Bill Guerin (77) for fourth.

sauce: https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17839

 

[Snuggs]

If he signs a bridge we're going to get bent over when that deal is done. You sign him to an 8 year deal to something around what Larkin is making IMO. He's going to be such a stud.

Yeah right...

You don't pay a winger 8 million plus that's never scored 35 Plus goals or topped over 80 points. HOLY over valuation.

The contract would be a Jeff Skinner look-a-like.

I love Raymond, but what the heck... 8x8 is wild to me.

 

[Snuggs]

I feel ethically obligated to not watch any Wings games for the remainder of the season after tantrumming last night but their future is still looking decent, even if I think they are 100% dead in the water this season.

Ha, I'm not going to anymore games this year, even though I wanna see Rempe bad.

But, I'm still watching. I want them in the playoffs bad, Sitting tight till they're actually eliminated!

Been waiting way too long to watch this type of hockey for years now, literally years to just... BE MAD it's here. (A playoff chase)

Blashill hockey sucked so much more. There was just no hope.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Yeah right...

You don't pay a winger 8 million plus that's never scored 35 Plus goals or topped over 80 points. HOLY over valuation.

The contract would be a Jeff Skinner look-a-like.

I love Raymond, but what the heck... 8x8 is wild to me.

Would not be a Skinner look alike. Skinners deal accounted for 11.3% of the cap. Raymond would need a 9.9m contract next year to account for that. An 8m contract would be 9.1% of the cap. Quite the difference.

 

[Snuggs]

Would not be a Skinner look alike. Skinners deal accounted for 11.3% of the cap. Raymond would need a 9.9m contract next year to account for that. An 8m contract would be 9.1% of the cap. Quite the difference.

Idk if A 2% technicality uproots the main point with the analogy. Too much too long.

 

[Perfect Human]

I could see 4x 7.125 or 3x7.375. If it’s a 8 year deal, I see it closed to 8.6.

Yzerman is good at getting value on resigning players. I think Lucas only wants to be a wing based on his body language and responses to questions about the team and who he liked as a kid