Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[Muston Atthews]

There's an actual video fyi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3HOxMFIIdo

Thought it was gonna be cringy, but it honestly wasn't bad.

That video doesn't have Marcus' verse in it.

 

[TootooTrain]

That video doesn't have Marcus' verse in it.

Nice catch.

 

[rojac]

Storen definitely allows us the luxury to move Osuna to a starting spot.

Unless we deal Dickey, and have Hutch in AAA, we don't have the room to convert both Sanchez and Osuna this season.

Or they put Sanchez and Osuna in the minors.

 

[Discoverer]

Or they put Sanchez and Osuna in the minors.

They wouldn't do that with both of them unless they bring in another really good reliever. I could see Sanchez starting in the minors to get stretched out, but they have too much value to the current team to have them both off the 25-man without replacing them.

The one scenario that makes a lot of sense to me would be to stretch out Sanchez this year (with Hutchison as the 5th starter, Chavez as the long man, and Cecil/Osuna/Storen as a dominant back-end) and build up Osuna's innings with more multi-inning appearances with the goal of converting him into the rotation for 2017.

 

[Doug Gilmour]

IMO Osuna is the one I would keep as a reliever. He is exactly what you need in the bullpen late in the game. Throw him in game in the 7th or 8th and let him finish it out. Sanchez with the sinker is a starter. Again, this is just my opinion.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Meanwhile, over at fangraphs....



So here's the thing, my biased Mariner fan (slash, weirdo Red Sox homer for some reason no one can explain); are you truly banking your theory (hope) that the Blue Jays will regress as a team (significantly) based on prime Josh Donaldson suddenly forgetting how to play baseball, a 27 year old centerfielder breaking down physically (losing his defensive value, because his 93 wRC+ is what it is...and isn't fueled by babip), and Marco Estrada regressing to the point where he's not a stellar 1.8 fWAR?

All while ignoring a full year of Marcus Stroman...easily replacing Price (74.1 IP) and the 2015 version of himself (27 IP)...while also replacing replacement level innings (Doubront 20.1, Copeland 12.1, Norris 23.1, Redmond 4.0, Boyd 6.2). Replacing Buerhle (2.1 fWAR in 198.2 IP) with Happ (3.3 fWAR in 172 IP), Hutch (1.5 fWAR in 150.1 IP) with himself (2.3 fWAR in 184.2) or Jesse Chavez (2.3 fWAR in 157 IP).

("But they lost Hendriks and his beautiful low leverage 64.2 IP (1.5 fWAR)" Said a whimsical stranger with a yelp. "Or the ageless LeTroy Hawkins and his 16.1 IP, and the stellar Mark Lowe and hi 19 IP. Surely, all is lost."

You've replaced those in the bullpen with Drew Storen (1.1 fWAR in 55 high leverage IP), a right Aaron Loup (0.7 fWAR in 68 IP) and a full year of bullpen Sanchez (0.9 fWAR in 59.1 IP).

That's not even taking into account defense!!!!!!!!! **** you Dave Cameron, you transparent POS.

/Rage rant

You also forgot half year Reyes/half year bad Tulo becoming full yeah Tulo of old. That could possibly be the biggest upgrade on this team from last year.

 

[Discoverer]

You also forgot half year Reyes/half year bad Tulo becoming full yeah Tulo of old. That could possibly be the biggest upgrade on this team from last year.

For the record, and noting that the defensive sample was tiny and the bat was obviously not Tulo-esque, he played at a 5.5 WAR pace (by both bWAR and fWAR) in Toronto.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

You also forgot half year Reyes/half year bad Tulo becoming full yeah Tulo of old. That could possibly be the biggest upgrade on this team from last year.

Don't even get me started on that. The crap that steamer and zips spit out for Tulo. Even if those pedestrian numbers are produced from a guy one year removed from having a .444 wOBA, it's an upgrade. Not to mention taking a putrid defender and replacing him with a plus defender; all at the second most important defensive position on the field.

 

[Eyedea]

Judging by the fan projections the Jays may have the best team on paper.

 

[zeke]

Don't even get me started on that. The crap that steamer and zips spit out for Tulo. Even if those pedestrian numbers are produced from a guy one year removed from having a .444 wOBA, it's an upgrade. Not to mention taking a putrid defender and replacing him with a plus defender; all at the second most important defensive position on the field.

Don't put steamer and zips in the same boat - they have spit out wildly different projections for the jays this year, with Zips being far more bullish on all of them - including Tulo, who zips considers to be a ~5war pace player who will miss about a quarter of the season to injury. which seems fair.

and remember - fangraphs current Depth charts and projected standings (which is what cameron is mainly referring to) are at the moment only based on steamer. zips won't be included until they finish rolling out each team zips article over the next few weeks.

zips sees the jays as about a 45war team, steamer only about 40.

 

[Discoverer]

Don't put steamer and zips in the same boat - they have spit out wildly different projections for the jays this year, with Zips being far more bullish on all of them - including Tulo, who zips considers to be a ~5war pace player who will miss about a quarter of the season to injury. which seems fair.

and remember - fangraphs current Depth charts and projected standings (which is what cameron is mainly referring to) are at the moment only based on steamer. zips won't be included until they finish rolling out each team zips article over the next few weeks.

zips sees the jays as about a 45war team, steamer only about 40.

Meanwhile, the Fan projections have them as about a 55 WAR team. That's the one I want to believe.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Don't put steamer and zips in the same boat - they have spit out wildly different projections for the jays this year, with Zips being far more bullish on all of them - including Tulo, who zips considers to be a ~5war pace player who will miss about a quarter of the season to injury. which seems fair.

and remember - fangraphs current Depth charts and projected standings (which is what cameron is mainly referring to) are at the moment only based on steamer. zips won't be included until they finish rolling out each team zips article over the next few weeks.

zips sees the jays as about a 45war team, steamer only about 40.

Steamer Tulo wOBA: .334
Zips Tulo wOBA: .333

Both are down case scenarios with little explanation for a valid reason why.

 

[The Nemesis]

IMO Osuna is the one I would keep as a reliever. He is exactly what you need in the bullpen late in the game. Throw him in game in the 7th or 8th and let him finish it out. Sanchez with the sinker is a starter. Again, this is just my opinion.

I see it the other way around. Osuna, with his change up and command are more likely to continue to perform well even with the decrease in stuff that comes with moving out of the pen. Sanchez also perhaps is better suited to being a reliever so that he can lean heavily on his fastball/sinker and not be so concerned with secondary offerings.

 

[Discoverer]

Steamer Tulo wOBA: .334
Zips Tulo wOBA: .333

Both are down case scenarios with little explanation for a valid reason why.

What explanation is necessary? They're both essentially mathematical equations that try to determine the most likely scenario. He's 31 years old, an age where most player start to decline, and they both see him being slightly better than last year. I don't agree, as I expect (or, maybe more accurately, I'm hoping for) more of a bounceback, but it's not unreasonable to think he'll put up numbers like those.

 

[zeke]

Steamer Tulo wOBA: .334
Zips Tulo wOBA: .333

Both are down case scenarios with little explanation for a valid reason why.

it's not really a down scenario, actually. you're underestimating the effect of playing in colorado.

you have to look at stadium and league adjusted numbers like wrc+ and ops+ to get a good handle on it.

Zips projects a 114ops+ and steamer a 110wrc+ - both significantly better than the 102ops+ and 100wrc+ he posted last year, and not far below his career 123wrc+/122ops+ or his career road 116wrc+.

Just remember that a 110-115wrc+ makes him the best offensive SS in baseball still, and with his good D one of the best players in mlb still.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

What explanation is necessary? They're both essentially mathematical equations that try to determine the most likely scenario. He's 31 years old, an age where most player start to decline, and they both see him being slightly better than last year. I don't agree, as I expect (or, maybe more accurately, I'm hoping for) more of a bounceback, but it's not unreasonable to think he'll put up numbers like those.

There's many assumptions built into those numbers, and age is not linear for all player's forecasted with them. Especially Zips, which has a lot of human intervention.

Based on contact rates, of which Tulo's are still very elite, I don't see reason for that significant of a decline. (Eyedea and myself discussed this several weeks back).

 

[Kurtz]

Padres sign Villanueva for 1 year @ $1.5. Solid get.

Question...which former Jays would you rather have:

1.Villanueva+Liam Hendricks at a total of $2 mil
or
2.Chavez @ $4.5?


I think we should have went with option 1.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Padres sign Villanueva for 1 year @ $1.5. Solid get.

Question...which former Jays would you rather have:

1.Villanueva+Liam Hendricks at a total of $2 mil
or
2.Chavez @ $4.5?


I think we should have went with option 1.

I'd rather Chavez + Storen at ~10 mil

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

it's not really a down scenario, actually. you're underestimating the effect of playing in colorado.

you have to look at stadium and league adjusted numbers like wrc+ and ops+ to get a good handle on it.

Zips projects a 114ops+ and steamer a 110wrc+ - both significantly better than the 102ops+ and 100wrc+ he posted last year, and not far below his career 123wrc+/122ops+ or his career road 116wrc+.

Just remember that a 110-115wrc+ makes him the best offensive SS in baseball still, and with his good D one of the best players in mlb still.

Troy Tulowitzki had a .361 wOBA and 128 wRC+ (and a .206 iso) on the road over the last five years. And that is while playing a bulk of his games in three pitcher friendly parks (Petco .931 park factor '15, AT&T .845 park factor in '15, Dodger stadium .918 park factor).

I've paid the appropriate amount if attention to the park factor.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Padres sign Villanueva for 1 year @ $1.5. Solid get.

Question...which former Jays would you rather have:

1.Villanueva+Liam Hendricks at a total of $2 mil
or
2.Chavez @ $4.5?


I think we should have went with option 1.

Chavez.

 

[BackHandShelf22]

I tend to side with the player that has proven he can be a starter. That's just me though.

 

[hockeywiz542]

the toronto blue jays have hired gil kim in the role of director, player development.

Kim, 34, spent the past seven seasons in various roles with the texas rangers, following a six-year playing career that saw him make stops in the netherlands, china, australia, spain and venezuela. A product of vanderbilt university, kim progressed through the international scouting department with texas, reaching director, international scouting in november 2013. In his new role, the potsville, pennsylvania native will oversee the commitment of player development leaders and staff to include each player in the process of creating and realizing their physical, mental and fundamental goals.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Mark Shapiro, the president of the Toronto Blue Jays joined Prime Time Sports in studio to discuss a number of things including if the team will make more offseason moves, the futures of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista and if grass is coming to the Rogers Centre anytime soon.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-4/Shapiro-pts-20160113-Interview.mp3

 

[Canada4Gold]

Hopefully the Jays win the powerball jackpot tonight and use it on the payroll

16, 3, 31, 28, 20, and powerball 5

I don't have a ticket but those are the numbers I'm picking in my head

 

[Discoverer]

There's many assumptions built into those numbers, and age is not linear for all player's forecasted with them. Especially Zips, which has a lot of human intervention.

Based on contact rates, of which Tulo's are still very elite, I don't see reason for that significant of a decline. (Eyedea and myself discussed this several weeks back).

Aging curves shouldn't be linear across all players... they should be based on the aging curves of players of similar profiles. And obviously they have to make assumptions when they're trying to predict the future. That's why they end up being wrong a lot, but they're still significantly more accurate than the best projections any of us could possibly make. I'm also not sure what human intervention goes into ZiPS, other than maybe injury adjustments.

For the record, I agree about expecting more of a bounceback than the projections. I just think any frustration about projections systems is misplaced.