Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[Eyedea]

Funny enough, Hutch is the type of guy the Cleveland front office trades for.

And immediately extends after a semi-breakout season for 6 years, who then becomes a #2.

It's kinda unfortunate that they haven't consistently been that powerhouse org in the central since the late 90s, but man they have a great vision and employ such a solid front office.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

And immediately extends after a semi-breakout season for 6 years, who then becomes a #2.

It's kinda unfortunate that they haven't consistently been that powerhouse org in the central since the late 90s, but man they have a great vision and employ such a solid front office.

Agreed. I'd love to get a blueprint of how they evaluate pitchers at specific ages, and what their key indicators are.

The Cardinals as well. Both at the draft and then the development curve/blueprint. They've been almost perfect.

 

[Eyedea]

Agreed. I'd love to get a blueprint of how they evaluate pitchers at specific ages, and what their key indicators are.

The Cardinals as well. Both at the draft and then the development curve/blueprint. They've been almost perfect.

Well we know why the Cards are so good. *hack*

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Well we know why the Cards are so good. *hack*

Lol indeed. At least when thinking about the draft and trading.

I'm more so interested in their bullpen break - rotation transition and the timing behind it. Also, why some guys undergo the transition and other simply remain relievers.

 

[The Nemesis]

Didn't he just have a concussion?

If anything, there is a chance to maybe get some value shaved off because he got dinged 8 games for pine tar or sunscreen or whatever on his arm.

 

[FreeBird]

Good for AA he followed the Money, hopefully the family will love Malibu.

 

[trellaine201]

Good job AA! Nice gig in LA.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Meanwhile, over at fangraphs....

Gary Gorr: Why do you think the Jays in 2016 are not as good as the 2015 version?

Dave Cameron: You think Josh Donaldson is going to put up +9 WAR again? You think you’re getting +4 WAR from Kevin Pillar in 2016? You think Marco Estrada is going to run a 3.13 ERA again? Most of the roster should reasonably be expected to perform worse than they did a year ago.

So here's the thing, my biased Mariner fan (slash, weirdo Red Sox homer for some reason no one can explain); are you truly banking your theory (hope) that the Blue Jays will regress as a team (significantly) based on prime Josh Donaldson suddenly forgetting how to play baseball, a 27 year old centerfielder breaking down physically (losing his defensive value, because his 93 wRC+ is what it is...and isn't fueled by babip), and Marco Estrada regressing to the point where he's not a stellar 1.8 fWAR?

All while ignoring a full year of Marcus Stroman...easily replacing Price (74.1 IP) and the 2015 version of himself (27 IP)...while also replacing replacement level innings (Doubront 20.1, Copeland 12.1, Norris 23.1, Redmond 4.0, Boyd 6.2). Replacing Buerhle (2.1 fWAR in 198.2 IP) with Happ (3.3 fWAR in 172 IP), Hutch (1.5 fWAR in 150.1 IP) with himself (2.3 fWAR in 184.2) or Jesse Chavez (2.3 fWAR in 157 IP).

("But they lost Hendriks and his beautiful low leverage 64.2 IP (1.5 fWAR)" Said a whimsical stranger with a yelp. "Or the ageless LeTroy Hawkins and his 16.1 IP, and the stellar Mark Lowe and hi 19 IP. Surely, all is lost."

You've replaced those in the bullpen with Drew Storen (1.1 fWAR in 55 high leverage IP), a right Aaron Loup (0.7 fWAR in 68 IP) and a full year of bullpen Sanchez (0.9 fWAR in 59.1 IP).

That's not even taking into account defense!!!!!!!!! **** you Dave Cameron, you transparent POS.

/Rage rant

 

[mikebel111*]

Meanwhile, over at fangraphs....



So here's the thing, my biased Mariner fan (slash, weirdo Red Sox homer for some reason no one can explain); are you truly banking your theory (hope) that the Blue Jays will regress as a team (significantly) based on prime Josh Donaldson suddenly forgetting how to play baseball, a 27 year old centerfielder breaking down physically (losing his defensive value, because his 93 wRC+ is what it is...and isn't fueled by babip), and Marco Estrada regressing to the point where he's not a stellar 1.8 fWAR?

All while ignoring a full year of Marcus Stroman...easily replacing Price (74.1 IP) and the 2015 version of himself (27 IP)...while also replacing replacement level innings (Doubront 20.1, Copeland 12.1, Norris 23.1, Redmond 4.0, Boyd 6.2). Replacing Buerhle (2.1 fWAR in 198.2 IP) with Happ (3.3 fWAR in 172 IP), Hutch (1.5 fWAR in 150.1 IP) with himself (2.3 fWAR in 184.2) or Jesse Chavez (2.3 fWAR in 157 IP).

("But they lost Hendriks and his beautiful low leverage 64.2 IP (1.5 fWAR)" Said a whimsical stranger with a yelp. "Or the ageless LeTroy Hawkins and his 16.1 IP, and the stellar Mark Lowe and hi 19 IP. Surely, all is lost."

You've replaced those in the bullpen with Drew Storen (1.1 fWAR in 55 high leverage IP), a right Aaron Loup (0.7 fWAR in 68 IP) and a full year of bullpen Sanchez (0.9 fWAR in 59.1 IP).

That's not even taking into account defense!!!!!!!!! **** you Dave Cameron, you transparent POS.

/Rage rant

 

[LaCarriere]

Meanwhile, over at fangraphs....



So here's the thing, my biased Mariner fan (slash, weirdo Red Sox homer for some reason no one can explain); are you truly banking your theory (hope) that the Blue Jays will regress as a team (significantly) based on prime Josh Donaldson suddenly forgetting how to play baseball, a 27 year old centerfielder breaking down physically (losing his defensive value, because his 93 wRC+ is what it is...and isn't fueled by babip), and Marco Estrada regressing to the point where he's not a stellar 1.8 fWAR?

All while ignoring a full year of Marcus Stroman...easily replacing Price (74.1 IP) and the 2015 version of himself (27 IP)...while also replacing replacement level innings (Doubront 20.1, Copeland 12.1, Norris 23.1, Redmond 4.0, Boyd 6.2). Replacing Buerhle (2.1 fWAR in 198.2 IP) with Happ (3.3 fWAR in 172 IP), Hutch (1.5 fWAR in 150.1 IP) with himself (2.3 fWAR in 184.2) or Jesse Chavez (2.3 fWAR in 157 IP).

("But they lost Hendriks and his beautiful low leverage 64.2 IP (1.5 fWAR)" Said a whimsical stranger with a yelp. "Or the ageless LeTroy Hawkins and his 16.1 IP, and the stellar Mark Lowe and hi 19 IP. Surely, all is lost."

You've replaced those in the bullpen with Drew Storen (1.1 fWAR in 55 high leverage IP), a right Aaron Loup (0.7 fWAR in 68 IP) and a full year of bullpen Sanchez (0.9 fWAR in 59.1 IP).

That's not even taking into account defense!!!!!!!!! **** you Dave Cameron, you transparent POS.

/Rage rant

I don't think it's unreasonable to predict that Donaldson won't reach 8.7 WAR again, but he's not going to fall off to a 5 WAR player either. He should hit 7.0 no problem, but he had an insane year last year - tough to repeat (but doable) but a small regression seems reasonable.

I don't see why Pillar would fall very far off from ~4.0 WAR. It's not like much of that value came from his bat (93 wRC+), most of that was from his glove and at his age that's not something that you just lose.

They don't really need Donaldson to be the MVP again though - a top 5 is good enough. They get a full year of Stroman, a full year of Tulo (who can hit a lot better than he showed), Martin who won't have to catch Dickey, the additions of Happ, Chavez & Storen, and hopefully minimal AAA pitchers making starts like you mentioned.

So while I think it's fairy reasonable to see a bit of regression on some of the insane years some of the guys had last year, I think it's more unreasonable with the roster changes (and getting full seasons out of Stroman, Tulo, etc) to think this team will be .500 after 100 games with a +95 run differential, playing 8-10 games below their pythag record.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Meanwhile, over at fangraphs....



So here's the thing, my biased Mariner fan (slash, weirdo Red Sox homer for some reason no one can explain); are you truly banking your theory (hope) that the Blue Jays will regress as a team (significantly) based on prime Josh Donaldson suddenly forgetting how to play baseball, a 27 year old centerfielder breaking down physically (losing his defensive value, because his 93 wRC+ is what it is...and isn't fueled by babip), and Marco Estrada regressing to the point where he's not a stellar 1.8 fWAR?

All while ignoring a full year of Marcus Stroman...easily replacing Price (74.1 IP) and the 2015 version of himself (27 IP)...while also replacing replacement level innings (Doubront 20.1, Copeland 12.1, Norris 23.1, Redmond 4.0, Boyd 6.2). Replacing Buerhle (2.1 fWAR in 198.2 IP) with Happ (3.3 fWAR in 172 IP), Hutch (1.5 fWAR in 150.1 IP) with himself (2.3 fWAR in 184.2) or Jesse Chavez (2.3 fWAR in 157 IP).

("But they lost Hendriks and his beautiful low leverage 64.2 IP (1.5 fWAR)" Said a whimsical stranger with a yelp. "Or the ageless LeTroy Hawkins and his 16.1 IP, and the stellar Mark Lowe and hi 19 IP. Surely, all is lost."

You've replaced those in the bullpen with Drew Storen (1.1 fWAR in 55 high leverage IP), a right Aaron Loup (0.7 fWAR in 68 IP) and a full year of bullpen Sanchez (0.9 fWAR in 59.1 IP).

That's not even taking into account defense!!!!!!!!! **** you Dave Cameron, you transparent POS.

/Rage rant

The Jays will probably have a Top 5 defense next year if not the best.

It feels like these writers are treating the jays like the Royals last off season. Absolutely no respect. Team will have a chip it's shoulder with so many people jumping on the Red Sox bandwagon.

Even if you think a bunch of jays players will regress for whatever reason it's still silly to think the jays will be worse than last year. The jays are not going to go 15-28 or whatever in one run games.

 

[one77]

Very happy we got Storen. Makes the pen that much better now.

This is how I see it going into the season:

Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Hutchison/Chavez

Bullpen: Hutchison/Chavez, Venditte, Loup, Cecil, Sanchez, Storen, Osuna

1) Travis (2B)
2) Donaldson (3B)
3) Bautista (RF)
4) Encarnacion (DH)
5) Tulowitzki (SS)
6) Martin (C)
7) Colabello (1B)
8) Pillar (CF)
9) Pompey (LF)

Goins (2B/SS), Smoak (1B), Saunders (OF), Thole (C)

It's a top 3 offense and a top 3 defense in the league. If Stroman becomes that ace, Donaldson/Bautista/EE don't fall off the map, and Tulowitzki plays like his usual self (offensively), we should be a contender. Also need Cecil/Sanchez/Storen/Osuna to be a top 5 bullpen in the AL.

P.S. congrats to AA on the gig in LA. Can't blame him for jetting off to Southern California. I truly think the hiring of Shapiro + his comments after being hired about AA trading prospects is what pushed AA to look elsewhere. But that's another subject for another day.

 

[LaCarriere]

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when Saunders gets the everyday LF spot. I have a feeling Gibbons is going to use Pompey very similarly to how he did at the end of last year - pinch runner / late game defensive replacement.

I like the addition of Storen but not at the cost of Revere. I would have liked it if it involved Saunders + other pieces, as losing Revere could leave a weakspot in LF if Saunders knee is ****ed, and Pompey can't figure **** out in the big leagues. They need one of those two to work out, and both are question marks as far as I'm concerned.

They basically traded a 2.5+ WAR every day player for a 1.0 WAR reliever who will pitch 55, maybe 60 innings. I don't know if that was the best trade to make value wise, but it probably was their area of biggest need.

 

[tmlfan98]

Very happy we got Storen. Makes the pen that much better now.

This is how I see it going into the season:

Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Hutchison/Chavez

Bullpen: Hutchison/Chavez, Venditte, Loup, Cecil, Sanchez, Storen, Osuna

1) Travis (2B)
2) Donaldson (3B)
3) Bautista (RF)
4) Encarnacion (DH)
5) Tulowitzki (SS)
6) Martin (C)
7) Colabello (1B)
8) Pillar (CF)
9) Pompey (LF)

Goins (2B/SS), Smoak (1B), Saunders (OF), Thole (C)

It's a top 3 offense and a top 3 defense in the league. If Stroman becomes that ace, Donaldson/Bautista/EE don't fall off the map, and Tulowitzki plays like his usual self (offensively), we should be a contender. Also need Cecil/Sanchez/Storen/Osuna to be a top 5 bullpen in the AL.

P.S. congrats to AA on the gig in LA. Can't blame him for jetting off to Southern California. I truly think the hiring of Shapiro + his comments after being hired about AA trading prospects is what pushed AA to look elsewhere. But that's another subject for another day.

Ya I'm thinking the exact same thing, except with Tepera getting the final bullpen spot over Venditte.

 

[Eyedea]

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when Saunders gets the everyday LF spot. I have a feeling Gibbons is going to use Pompey very similarly to how he did at the end of last year - pinch runner / late game defensive replacement.

I like the addition of Storen but not at the cost of Revere. I would have liked it if it involved Saunders + other pieces, as losing Revere could leave a weakspot in LF if Saunders knee is ****ed, and Pompey can't figure **** out in the big leagues. They need one of those two to work out, and both are question marks as far as I'm concerned.

They basically traded a 2.5+ WAR every day player for a 1.0 WAR reliever who will pitch 55, maybe 60 innings. I don't know if that was the best trade to make value wise, but it probably was their area of biggest need.

I don't think anybody should be surprised if Saunders gets the LF spot. That's exactly what he was acquired to do. I think the likeliest option entering 2016 is having him and Lake platoon in LF and Pompey (along with Carrera) serve as depth in Buffalo. Or they could keep Pompey up and spell Pillar from CF every now and then.

With regards to Saunders and Pompey being question marks, I don't think we really should be worrying about that. Even a bum-kneed Michael Saunders was profiling as an above average LFer (in the smallest of sample sizes) defensively last season. A fully healthy one should be better, and offers a lot more upside at the position. Pompey also provides two elite assets in baserunning and defence, with solid potential with the bat (pop+discipline).

As for Revere being a 2.5+ WAR player, he only did that once back in 2012 for the Twins when he posted elite range in RF. He hasn't shown anything close to that since and we're all aware now that he is clearly not a good fielder (no matter how many chain link or scoreboard catches he made). Revere is an average player that probably shouldn't be a starter, and even if Saunders' knee is '****ed' or Pompey 'can't figure his **** out' the Jays will still likely benefit from doing this deal. Based on projections the Jays essentially moved something that they already have multiple of in LF in order to improve an area of need (bullpen).

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-blue-jays-sensibly-swap-storen-revere/

 

[Discoverer]

I like the addition of Storen but not at the cost of Revere. I would have liked it if it involved Saunders + other pieces, as losing Revere could leave a weakspot in LF if Saunders knee is ****ed, and Pompey can't figure **** out in the big leagues. They need one of those two to work out, and both are question marks as far as I'm concerned.

"Trading one of their three major-league calibre left fielders was a bad idea because there's a chance that the other two won't work out" seems like a really weird perspective to me.

 

[Mach85]

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when Saunders gets the everyday LF spot. I have a feeling Gibbons is going to use Pompey very similarly to how he did at the end of last year - pinch runner / late game defensive replacement.

I like the addition of Storen but not at the cost of Revere. I would have liked it if it involved Saunders + other pieces, as losing Revere could leave a weakspot in LF if Saunders knee is ****ed, and Pompey can't figure **** out in the big leagues. They need one of those two to work out, and both are question marks as far as I'm concerned.

They basically traded a 2.5+ WAR every day player for a 1.0 WAR reliever who will pitch 55, maybe 60 innings. I don't know if that was the best trade to make value wise, but it probably was their area of biggest need.

It's a gotta give to get scenario. Saunders coming off injury is gonna take a pretty decent plus. Revere, while a solid player who played his role well for us and can provide good production, is essentially a league average player. It's a pretty fair bet to make that Pompey, one of the top prospects in the system, can replace that (or at worst, platoon with Saunders). Such a significant upgrade to the pen (one that was necessary given the pen upgrades within the division this offseason), which allows for flexibility with Sanchez/Osuna, is well worth the loss of Ben Revere.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't think anybody should be surprised if Saunders gets the LF spot. That's exactly what he was acquired to do. I think the likeliest option entering 2016 is having him and Lake platoon in LF and Pompey (along with Carrera) serve as depth in Buffalo. Or they could keep Pompey up and spell Pillar from CF every now and then.

With regards to Saunders and Pompey being question marks, I don't think we really should be worrying about that. Even a bum-kneed Michael Saunders was profiling as an above average LFer (in the smallest of sample sizes) defensively last season. A fully healthy one should be better, and offers a lot more upside at the position. Pompey also provides two elite assets in baserunning and defence, with solid potential with the bat (pop+discipline).

As for Revere being a 2.5+ WAR player, he only did that once back in 2012 for the Twins when he posted elite range in RF. He hasn't shown anything close to that since and we're all aware now that he is clearly not a good fielder (no matter how many chain link or scoreboard catches he made). Revere is an average player that probably shouldn't be a starter, and even if Saunders' knee is '****ed' or Pompey 'can't figure his **** out' the Jays will still likely benefit from doing this deal. Based on projections the Jays essentially moved something that they already have multiple of in LF in order to improve an area of need (bullpen).

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-blue-jays-sensibly-swap-storen-revere/

Good post. Also, Fwar doesn't properly value high-leverage relievers. Bwar doesn't either, but it did have have Storen at 2.5 WAR 2 years ago.

The only downside to Storen is that he's a man who appreciates rest, and unless Gibby makes him strictly a 9th inning guy, he may be overworked by Gibby.

 

[Discoverer]

As for Cameron, I don't think the problem is so much that he's biased towards one team or another, I think it's that he's inclined to put his entire trust in the projections and tends not to offer any varying opinions. Even in his chats, if someone expresses any disagreement with projections, he'll side with the projections every time.

I think he just likes the Red Sox because projection systems like the Red Sox.

 

[Stand Witness]

Not sure if anyone here is interested in this but I'll post it anyways. Some NSFW language.

 

[Eyedea]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28196

A case to be made regarding Russell Martin's future HoF candidacy (and also the under appreciation of Raines and Trammell).

 

[Cor]

Storen definitely allows us the luxury to move Osuna to a starting spot.

Unless we deal Dickey, and have Hutch in AAA, we don't have the room to convert both Sanchez and Osuna this season.

 

[TootooTrain]

Not sure if anyone here is interested in this but I'll post it anyways. Some NSFW language.

There's an actual video fyi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3HOxMFIIdo

Thought it was gonna be cringy, but it honestly wasn't bad.