Leon Draisaitl 3rd 110+ point season in 4 years...

[KlefDown]

mf'ers be like "if only he cared about defense"

bro the best player on your team can barely put up 80 points and still sucks at defense, the f*** is you talking about

 

[Fourier]

I said players produce better playing with better players and that McDavid was the best player in the world. You are saying you disagree? It’s weird that McDavid is the one leading the team and league in power play points with 62 and not Nuge or Drai. Strange he has 280 PP points since entering the league and RNH only has 169.

The argument that players don’t benefit from playing with an all-time great is certainly an odd one.

Please continue with your made up point that people are saying other Oilers players aren’t good and it’s all McDavid though…Draisaitl and Nuge can be good players while also benefitting from playing with McDavid you know…

Here is what you said :

The fact that McDavid is by far the best offensive player in the game means that his teammates benefit the most. It’s not a difficult concept.

The clear implication is that the better the player the more he inflates everyone's point totals. I simply showed you that as a blanket statement this is not true. You also took this incorrectly as a slight to McDavid. Again this is wrong. In fact it simply has to do with how a player's game changes when playing with McDavid. In Nuge's case he has tended to be very passive playing with McDavid focusing more on the defensive side. Away from McDavid, centering his own line, he is the guy who controls where the puck goes. So while the team scores more goals when McDavid and Nuge are on the ice together than they do when Nuge is centering his own line Nuge's own point totals 5 vs 5 don't generally go up with McDavid since he is involved in a much smaller percentage of the goals scored. Hence Nuge's 5 vs 5 scoring has historically declined playing with McDavid.

On the pp things are a little different. Nuge plays a key role here as he is the secondary puck handler on the Oilers pp. So while in the past he was the main ppqb he still gets a lot of high impact touches on the pp so in this case the extra goals the team scored over in previous years pretty much balanced out his modest decline in his role on the pp.

The key point is that no matter who you are when you play with McDavid your role becomes complementary. If you are a player whose game dictates that you need the puck a lot to put up points you may not do as well playing with McDavid as someone who is use to a more complementary role. So your blanket statement while seemingly intuitively clear is actually not correct. This is not just a McDavid thing either. Over the last three years Ratanen has a slightly higher scoring rate away from McKinnon than he does with.

Since this thread is about Leon one of the things that has impressed me the most about Leon is his ability to adapt his game to playing with McDavid. When they came out of Juniors their games were very much opposites of one another. Leon's tendency was always to slow the game down and control the puck. McDavid's game is transition and constant motion in the offensive zone. Leon was also very much a pass first player. Playing with McDavid Leon adapted to the high tempo transition game and became much more of a shooter. That one-timer from near the goal line is something he practiced like crazy. You could see it in the warm-up years ago. Leon would plant himself in that spot and he and McDavid would do there thing while everyone else went about their business. While I would still say he is complementary to McDavid he is so skilled that when they play together they feed off of one another almost equally. This year that has been somewhat less true than in the past few years as McDavid has elevated his game and with Draisaitl obviously not being 100% for much of the year.

At this point in his career Leon can play the game either way depending on who he is with. Play him on a line with a guy like Marner or Kane and he will be the trigger man. Play him with a sniper and he will be Backstrom with a much better shot.

 

[North Cole]

No, you're not right. You don't understand math.

Using the actual math, he's still not a sub 100 point player like is being claimed by others.

Projected to 82 games is 1314 5v5, that's 72 points at 3.28p/60. Add the 12 in 100 of ES time, and 54 of PP, you get to 138 points. It's not 165, but the 12 and 54 are at 70 games, not 82, so he's definitely over 140.

Going the other way, 1314 5v5 at 2.00p/60 is 44, rounds out to 110. Naturally this includes McDavid still on the powerplay, so if you substitute McDavid out of the roster he won't get as much PP points, but also I don't think he would be sitting at 2.00p/60 if you gave him a true winger like MM to play with.

His true range is likely somewhere around 100-115 points possibly dipping under 100 in a down year, but I'm not sure how that brings us to conclusion he could possibly struggle to break 85 points as you claimed. It's a logical fallacy to me that people keep saying "if you put him on a worse PP team", when part of the reasons those teams are going 20% and sucking on the PP is that they don't have Draisaitl on it. I'm not saying Draisaitl is solely responsible for us being top 5 in the league all-time right now, but its massively hypocritical to adjust his 5v5 points down with no McDavid but then try to use current bad PP% on other teams to project his PP points over there. They would decrease away from McDavid, but there is no evidence to suggest ANA PP stays as bad with him on it.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

Simpletons think he is merely a by product of McDavid and need to see McDavid go down for a season to figure out what everyone else knows: Drai is the second most dangerous offensive threat in the league and has been for half a decade now.

He’s 10 games away from his 5th consecutive season where he ranks top 4 in both goals and points, something that hasn’t been done by any player since Gretzky.

Terrific talent and I wouldn’t trust anyone who can’t put two and two together to realize that he would be putting up huge numbers with or without the best player in the game.

Someone can think Draisaitl is a top-5/10 player and still be producing records as a product of McDavid

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It's always the kindergarten accusations when called out

Show me the math that gets to 165 mr kindergartner.

 

[Video Nasty]

Someone can think Draisaitl is a top-5/10 player and still be producing records as a product of McDavid

And that’s relevant to what I said because?

 

[McTonyBrar]

I always maintained that McDavid is a GOAT level player (since 2018 that is) and dissmised any fan saying that MacKinnon or Makar were better than McDavid.

MacKinnon currently has 90 pts in 59 games so 1.53 PPG, while Draisaitl has 106 pts in 69 games, good for 1.53PPG (same as MacKinnon) while playing with a top 3 player of all time that is having a season for the ages.

There is absolutely no way Draisatl would produce the same on any other team. He still a top player, but simply not the "2nd best player" in the game.

uhhh Leon has 110 points.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

And that’s relevant to what I said because?

Because you brushed over a large contingency of those people who dont think Draisaitl is #2 in the word with 'they think hes a product of McDavid', implying they think he isnt very good

People who dont think Draisaitl is the best player after McDavid are treated like witches when - in reality - its the difference of 3-5 spots out of the games most elite

 

[McTonyBrar]

Ok wow, a merely 0.04PPG higher that MacKinnon when playing with McDavid and having half his points on the PP LOL.

So your saying a superstar doesn't get any PP points? Buddy tell Mackinnon to stop being a little girl and getting injured. If he could get 100 points or 130 points, he would've done it by now.

 

[Video Nasty]

Because you brushed over a large contingency of those people who dont think Draisaitl is #2 in the word with 'they think hes a product of McDavid', implying they think he isnt very good

People who dont think Draisaitl is the best player after McDavid are treated like witches when - in reality - its the difference of 3-5 spots out of the games most elite

You know what I mean. What, did you just get off a spaceship or something? Come on. Colombian gold, man. Grass, hash, the weed, dig it?

 

[NHL Fanatik]

You know what I mean. What, did you just get off a spaceship or something? Come on. Colombian gold, man. Grass, hash, the weed, dig it?

I know what you wrote and it was a dig at those who dont agree with you

Just clarifying

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Using the actual math, he's still not a sub 100 point player like is being claimed by others.

Projected to 82 games is 1314 5v5, that's 72 points at 3.28p/60. Add the 12 in 100 of ES time, and 54 of PP, you get to 138 points. It's not 165, but the 12 and 54 are at 70 games, not 82, so he's definitely over 140.

Going the other way, 1314 5v5 at 2.00p/60 is 44, rounds out to 110. Naturally this includes McDavid still on the powerplay, so if you substitute McDavid out of the roster he won't get as much PP points, but also I don't think he would be sitting at 2.00p/60 if you gave him a true winger like MM to play with.

His true range is likely somewhere around 100-115 points possibly dipping under 100 in a down year, but I'm not sure how that brings us to conclusion he could possibly struggle to break 85 points as you claimed. It's a logical fallacy to me that people keep saying "if you put him on a worse PP team", when part of the reasons those teams are going 20% and sucking on the PP is that they don't have Draisaitl on it. I'm not saying Draisaitl is solely responsible for us being top 5 in the league all-time right now, but its massively hypocritical to adjust his 5v5 points down with no McDavid but then try to use current bad PP% on other teams to project his PP points over there. They would decrease away from McDavid, but there is no evidence to suggest ANA PP stays as bad with him on it.

So to clarify here, you acknowledge that his production would likely decrease without McDavid, but then your quick back-of-the-napkin math puts his "true range" at...exactly what he's scoring now?

 

[North Cole]

So to clarify here, you acknowledge that his production would likely decrease without McDavid, but then your quick back-of-the-napkin math puts his "true range" at...exactly what he's scoring now?

No. First of all, he's on pace for 128 points right now with 10 games to go, so 100-115 is not really what he's at right now.

I did that other math quickly, so I didn't adjust his ES-non-5v5 points or his PP points to end of year, I just added his full season adjusted 5v5 scoring to the amounts already accrued in those other situations to get 138 and 110. If you adjust those other two higher for the next 10 games of TOI, he would be at >138 and >110.

To clarify, I noted that both of these ranges would decrease when you take McDavid off of the PP and out of the ES-non-5v5 scoring, as we have done for the 5v5 scoring which came down from 3.28/60 to 2.00/60. However, the conversation ITT has been that Drai would see his production crater on another team and the 2.00/60 was used as evidence of that. BUT IMO that 2.00/60 is not technically representative of his P/60 on another team since he would be the 1C and play with 1st line wingers. In EDM that 2.00/60 includes time as a 2C when away from McDavid playing with types like Foegele/Yamo, where as porting him into Matthews place puts him with types like Nylander or MM.

So while I conceded that his overall points drop from losing McDavid at ES and PP, his 2.00/60 should go up from having better wingers when not playing with McDavid. Thus I put his true range at 100-115 (obviously speculation), which is quite different from the 128 he is on pace for currently, and the 140 he is at the top of range in 100% ice-time with McDavid.

My primary issue is that everyone wants to adjust his PP and 5v5 scoring away from McDavid, but they don't want to give him better wingers at 5v5 when putting him on a new team away from McDavid. I think it's unfair to say he does X with McDavid and Y without, so on another team he will still do Y, but now he will do it for 100% of his TOI instead of 50% of his TOI. Realistically he should be doing something in the middle.

 

[I am Canadian]

The Oilers are like 2-4 points out of being #1 place in the Western Conference. What’s your point?

The Oilers are #1 in the Western Conference in regulation wins.

The Oilers have the #1 ranked offence in the NHL. Yesterday, they had an 18-goal lead on Boston who is he 2nd ranked offence.

When they beat the Knights in their next 2 games, they’ll have sole custody of first place.

Why do small, insecure people feel the need to frame the standings like you just did? But then hide by saying sneaky shit like this so subtly? You think I’m going to let you off the hook? You‘re a sheep in the HF-hive mind.

The Kings are 2nd in the Western conference but a 4 game losing streak away from being in The Wild Card. Why don’t you say the same shit about them?

The western conference is shit and the point stands that you have the two best players in the world and can't top a bad conference.

It wasn't even a shot at the Oilers necessary, more comparing NHL versus other leagues where stars have more of an impact.

Calling me insecure? Jeeze..

 

[Asinine]

Guy has a legitimate case for a top 37 forward in the Western Conference. Can't tell me nothin. Me and my Edmontonian bros will debate anyone who says otherwise.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Arguably the second best player in the league but this feels like a unnecessary “give my player attention” thread

 

[nturn06]

The western conference is shit and the point stands that you have the two best players in the world and can't top a bad conference.

It wasn't even a shot at the Oilers necessary, more comparing NHL versus other leagues where stars have more of an impact.

Calling me insecure? Jeeze..

The Oilers are 11-4-1 vs the "mighty" Atlantic this season, so I do not compute the point you are trying to make...

 

[Video Nasty]

Arguably the second best player in the league but this feels like a unnecessary “give my player attention” thread

Yeah, why recognize real life accomplishments? Let’s have another Peter Pan Neverland what if pace thread.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Arguably the second best player in the league but this feels like a unnecessary “give my player attention” thread

It's page 13. In terms of what this forum is about, I'd say it's necessary.

 

[pcruz]

do we have any data on that? I feel like a coach using a player in more defensive situations would absolutely have an effect on production. we already know it has a massive effect on increasing xga numbers (which I why I dont value them much in evaluating forwards)


I think you have it backwards. oilers fans celebrating their players success and defending him, vs leafs fans looking for any excuse to devalue his level of success

Was it not Oiler fans telling us that McDavid's season is the most impressive since Gretzky because he's dragging Hyman, RNH, and Draisaitl along the way??


It was indeed

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Arguably the second best player in the league but this feels like a unnecessary “give my player attention” thread

When's the last time we saw a player with 3/4 110+ seasons?

Even Crosby only had one season above 109 points, Ovechkin hit 110+ only twice as well.

 

[I am Canadian]

The Oilers are 11-4-1 vs the "mighty" Atlantic this season, so I do not compute the point you are trying to make...

The Western conference is weaker than the East this year, so I'm saying with the top two players in the world it's interesting that the Oilers wouldn't be on the top of the conference. Due to how complex hockey is as a team sport to find success.

Their record versus the Atlantic is not relevant as I'm talking about position within the conference. And if it was, they'd be #3 in the Atlantic as well anyway.

I'm not dunking on the Oilers, I'm not sure why you are so up in arms about my comment.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Was it not Oiler fans telling us that McDavid's season is the most impressive since Gretzky because he's dragging Hyman, RNH, and Draisaitl along the way??


It was indeed

I think you make stuff up in your head

 

[Leksand]

MacKinnon can only hear half of what you say because he as his Stanley Cup ring plugged in one of his ears.

And MacKinnon is therefore also very happy that he overall has better team mates and much much better franchise management for years.

Don’t have a strong opinion but in my mind MacKinnon does not have a disadvantage in terms of team mates. Eg McDavid is clearly better than Rantanen but so is Makar compared to Nurse, by a lot, and so on.

In fact if you’re the Oilers it’s not clear at all to me who you’d pick from Draisaitl, MacKinnon, and Makar, if given a choice. My gut says Makar and it’s not outlandish to see him as the second best player in the World (not mixing in goalies here)

 

[Hockey Outsider]

When's the last time we saw a player with 3/4 110+ seasons?

Even Crosby only had one season above 109 points, Ovechkin hit 110+ only twice as well.

With the disclaimer that this stat is (obviously) completely cherry-picked, here's a list of the only 12 players in NHL history who have scored 110+ points in at least three out of four seasons:

• Adam Oates
• Bobby Orr
• Guy Lafleur
• Jari Kurri
• Marcel Dionne
• Mario Lemieux
• Mike Bossy
• Paul Coffey
• Peter Stastny
• Phil Esposito
• Wayne Gretzky
• Leon Draisaitl

The last time a player did this was Adam Oates and Wayne Gretzky (after the 1993-94 season). It's been almost 30 years.