Player Discussion Leo Carlsson

[Hockey Duckie]

Who does it sound like this from? Lots of conflicting statements all rolled into one "x".

=== 1st thought in X
Who does it sound like this from?

From GM Verbeek in an NHL.com article:

"We're going to find the right league," Verbeek said. "If the NHL's not it, we'll try San Diego. If that's not it, then he'll [Carlsson] go back to Orebro. We're just going to wait and see."​

=== 2nd and 3rd thoguhts in X
Lots of conflicting statements all rolled into one "x".

These thoughts are Robinson's own thoughts. I agree with him on his 2nd thought: Could transition to NHL now, but could transition better to the NHL by going to the SHL for a year.

The third thought is stating the obvious. Anaheim needs Carlsson to produce at a high level, but also not to rush him if he doesn't.

Just my opinion, but PV is sending mixed messaging with preaching patience while "testing" where Carlsson should play. PV has said he likes overripening a prospect than rushing one. I guess playing center in only 8 WC games was enough to test the waters with Carlsson at the NHL level as opposed to overripening prospect Carlsson, playing top-6C on Orebro from the get go of the SHL season.

=== Carlsson and the AHL path discrepancy

I'd prefer Carlsson stay in the SHL all season, including pre-season. Since that's a foregone conclusion not to happen, then I'd rather keep Carlsson in the AHL if he can't hack it in the NHL level just for consistency with new coaches, new teammates, different schemes and new ice dimensions. It just seems awkward to learn all these new people, schemes, and dimensions only to throw it out the window to return to the SHL possibly three months later.

There could be a hiccup to Carlsson staying long term in the AHL... Carlsson doesn't want to stay in the AHL. Here's a recent article on the subject: Carlsson and Ducks unaligned on future path.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

It's possible that he can both be ready to play in the NHL and not be a dominant 1C yet. Players do develop at this level, especially the good ones.

Some people are just addicted to the tank.

Not on the tank squad, but I'd prefer Carlsson being developed in a top-6C role regardless of team. He's spent the majority of the past two years playing wing at the SHL level. I just don't see a top-6C spot open for Carlsson at the NHL level this year.

The recent pattern in Anaheim is to play the young centers at wing first and then transition to center. Zegras played wing in the AHL, then wing at the NHL, afterwards center in the AHL, and finally center at the NHL level in his first pro season. McTavish played wing and then transitioned to center. Although, McTavish is a different case because he was not able to play in the AHL unless it was on a conditioning stint. After McTavish was drafted, he played 9 NHL games all at wing, but in his 3 conditioning AHL games, he played center.

Carlsson isn't a CHL product and can play top-6C in the AHL all season long as an 18-year old. Show he can dominate in the AHL and then vie for a top-6C position in the 2024-25 season. This year is also Lundy's last year of his contract and still be an RFA, but with arbitration rights.

 

[ohcomeonref]

I'm seeing the weirdest narrative forming that if Carlsson isn't in the SHL for the next season the Ducks are somehow bungling his development. Its backed by nothing.

 

[Boxscore]

The only thing I hope is that if / when Carlsson makes the Ducks he gets rid of that corny #37 and takes his #91.

 

[Emerald Duck]

If Carlsson proves he's too good for the AHL then the Ducks will gladly bring him up to the NHL to stay.

A NHL roster spot is earned, not given, even for a 18-yr old 2OA draft pick who is projected to be a future star. I hope that in his interview in Swedish his comments reflected his confidence and desire to succeed in the NHL and not from a sense of entitlement about where he thinks he should play.

 

[All Mighty]

The only thing I hope is that if / when Carlsson makes the Ducks he gets rid of that corny #37 and takes his #91.

The Ducks don't let rookies pick their numbers until they have been with the NHL team for a full season. Zegras got #11 last season after wearing #46, and McTavish will most likely be wearing #23 next year after wearing #37.

 

[Deuce22]

I'm seeing the weirdest narrative forming that if Carlsson isn't in the SHL for the next season the Ducks are somehow bungling his development. Its backed by nothing.

Yeah, it's funny how Fantilli is supposedly ready to go, but Carlsson needs another year in the SHL. These same people probably think that college hockey is tougher competition than the SHL, as well.

 

[Boxscore]

The Ducks don't let rookies pick their numbers until they have been with the NHL team for a full season. Zegras got #11 last season after wearing #46, and McTavish will most likely be wearing #23 next year after wearing #37.

If I recall, it was similar with...

Getzlaf - 51 to 15
Perry - 61 to 10
Fowler - 54 to 4
Ryan - 54 to 9

... yes?

 

[All Mighty]

If I recall, it was similar with...

Getzlaf - 51 to 15
Perry - 61 to 10
Fowler - 54 to 4
Ryan - 54 to 9

... yes?

Yes. I honestly can't remember the last rookie to not have a weird number. Some of them just decide to keep it (Lindholm, Manson, Rakell, Ritchie, etc.).

 

[robbieboy3686]

I'm seeing the weirdest narrative forming that if Carlsson isn't in the SHL for the next season the Ducks are somehow bungling his development. Its backed by nothing.

+1 it’s ridiculous

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Not on the tank squad, but I'd prefer Carlsson being developed in a top-6C role regardless of team. He's spent the majority of the past two years playing wing at the SHL level. I just don't see a top-6C spot open for Carlsson at the NHL level this year.

The recent pattern in Anaheim is to play the young centers at wing first and then transition to center. Zegras played wing in the AHL, then wing at the NHL, afterwards center in the AHL, and finally center at the NHL level in his first pro season. McTavish played wing and then transitioned to center. Although, McTavish is a different case because he was not able to play in the AHL unless it was on a conditioning stint. After McTavish was drafted, he played 9 NHL games all at wing, but in his 3 conditioning AHL games, he played center.

Carlsson isn't a CHL product and can play top-6C in the AHL all season long as an 18-year old. Show he can dominate in the AHL and then vie for a top-6C position in the 2024-25 season. This year is also Lundy's last year of his contract and still be an RFA, but with arbitration rights.

I get it but lineups are fluid, even a guy listed as a 4C on a depth chart can get 1C or 2C matchups in any given game, period-to-period or even shift-to-shift. It can be managed granularly. And neither McT, nor Rico, nor Z are so good or established as 1/2Cs that it would be impossible to displace them. I think there's room here if need be.

That said if he's not ready he's not ready, but even so I'd rather have him in San Diego than Orebro.

 

[Gliff]

Yeah, it's funny how Fantilli is supposedly ready to go, but Carlsson needs another year in the SHL. These same people probably think that college hockey is tougher competition than the SHL, as well.

Players have different development paths.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

Yeah, it's funny how Fantilli is supposedly ready to go, but Carlsson needs another year in the SHL. These same people probably think that college hockey is tougher competition than the SHL, as well.

I think the argument is that another year in the NCAA wouldn’t help Fantilli, but another year in the SHL could help Leo - not because one player is further along than the other but because the SHL is a better developmental league than the NCAA in this argument.

Maybe this is a hot take but I think the “development path” is a little or maybe even very overblown. I think that guys that are going to make it will make it, and guys that aren’t, won’t. I don’t think Lafeniere would have torn up the league if they waited 2 more seasons or something, just like I don’t think Cam would have been a better player if they waited to bring him up.

There are arguments to be made about waiting to bring a player up so that you can maximize their ELC, but I can’t think of a better environment to learn NHL hockey than the NHL.

 

[Deuce22]

Players have different development paths.

Of course they do. But what is the evidence that Fantilli is ready, but Carlsson isn't? If Verbeek thinks bringing him to Ducks camp is the right path, why are fans saying he should be left in Sweden?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I get it but lineups are fluid, even a guy listed as a 4C on a depth chart can get 1C or 2C matchups in any given game, period-to-period or even shift-to-shift. It can be managed granularly. And neither McT, nor Rico, nor Z are so good or established as 1/2Cs that it would be impossible to displace them. I think there's room here if need be.

That said if he's not ready he's not ready, but even so I'd rather have him in San Diego than Orebro.

If Carlsson is here for training camp and pre-season, then I'd rather he stay on NA ice. I would prefer Orebro from the get go, where Carlsson doesn't sniff NA ice this pre-season, but that ain't happening now.

Just my opinion, we aren't starting Carlsson at center b/c that's our pattern. Carlsson played 1C at Worlds, but he didn't dominate. He proved enough that he could stay at center b/c he's been playing wing for the past two seasons.

Guys listed at 4C or 3C do not get top-6C minutes, despite occasionally matching up against 1C or 2C's. We had to live that way with McTavish last year b/c he wasn't eligible for the AHL. Also, last year was McTavish's D+2 season. McTavish was able to play center after being sent back down to juniors in his D+1 season. That was good because McTavish's D-1 and D+0 had him playing mostly wing; he struggled to play center at the NL-B and moved to wing, where he produced en masse.

McTavish playing center, first 6 games, TOI

Gm 10: 6:31 TOI​

Gm 11: 9:41 TOI​

Gm 12: 11:33 TOI​

Gm 13: 10:47 TOI​

Gm 14: 14:40 TOI​

Gm 15: 9:59 TOI​

With Lundy's injury, the team will move Strome back to center instead of going all youths down the middle for Cronin in Zegras, McTavish, Strome, and Groulx.

This will be Carlsson's D+1 season, scarcely playing center. I don't want him playing wing at the NHL level when the AHL option is available to play top-6C. Now, I don't mind if Carlsson gets called up and he's been dominating the AHL. At least we have evidence he has established himself at center for a longer period of 8 WC games against men.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I'm seeing the weirdest narrative forming that if Carlsson isn't in the SHL for the next season the Ducks are somehow bungling his development. Its backed by nothing.

Wrong narrative being presented. It's if Carlsson isn't in the SHL for next season, then the Ducks may not be getting the bang for the buck in development.



Robinson didn't say bungled at all.

I prefer the SHL option only if he stays there for the whole season. My highest priority for Carlsson is he play top-6C to start the season. Two places for that are at the AHL and SHL level. Since Carlsson is "testing" in the NHL, the SHL is out of the equation for me due to consistency for the player.

I prefer the SHL (Orebro) because they've done a wonderful job of developing Carlsson at a top tier men's level. I'd like to continue with that group in developing Carlsson as their projected 1C while also being playoff bound as they made the playoffs last year. With the Ducks' org, we're starting off with two new, rookie head coaches at their respective levels and who's team finished dead last in their respective leagues last year.

 

[DavidBL]

Of course they do. But what is the evidence that Fantilli is ready, but Carlsson isn't? If Verbeek thinks bringing him to Ducks camp is the right path, why are fans saying he should be left in Sweden?

Honestly, my guess is there are those who think the Ducks will still be terrible and think he'd be better served to play on a ream that is expected to be better in their respective leagues. Can't say I agree.

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

Honestly, my guess is there are those who think the Ducks will still be terrible and think he'd be better served to play on a ream that is expected to be better in their respective leagues. Can't say I agree.

Well our coach has set up a high expectation of playoffs. Soo there is that..if we wanted to tank. He could have kept Eakins in

 

[Sliptip]

How would it be a "fight for survival" to play in Anaheim? Just because they'll be bad? Who cares. If he's ready to develop as a center on NA ice then he's ready, it doesn't matter how the team will be. What matters is whether he'll be insulated from sink-or-swim situations where his confidence is at risk and can't be rescued by situational deployment, and on this team, that won't be a problem for him. There are plenty of centers who can play ahead of him if need be.

The team being shit was relevant because it doesn't make sense for them to sacrifice any future potential for the sake of getting 2 points better this year, because it won't make a difference for them.

If he is just about cutting it and doing okay in limited minutes or needing to be "insulated", do you actually believe that is better than getting all the ice-time in the world and being the center of the game in the AHL or SHL? I don't think that's the better development path at all, just like I think it's bad for most european juniors to get put into 5 minutes a game at the senior level instead of playing juniors in their draft years. Also, don't conflate AHL and NHL as "NA Ice". If both parties want him to play the AHL instead, and think it's the better path, then that's completely fine. I just said Sweden since he is from there and I would guess more comfortable there. I'm just opposed to the "NHL as soon as possible and at all cost" route. Again, if he can play in the NHL fulltime without sacrificing his potentially great skillset and playing simple for the sake of keeping up, then great. I personally don't believe it's worth the risk.

 

[AngelDuck]

I would rather have him in Sweden than San Diego

But I hope he shows he’s ready for the NHL in camp

 

[Gliff]

Of course they do. But what is the evidence that Fantilli is ready, but Carlsson isn't? If Verbeek thinks bringing him to Ducks camp is the right path, why are fans saying he should be left in Sweden?

First of all, there is a difference between coming to camp and sticking with the team the whole year.

Also, Fantilli is in a completely different situation on the BJs then he (or Carlsson) would be on the Ducks. Look at their roster. They should be a playoff team. The Ducks might be a bottom 5 team again.

There are arguments on both sides that are valid.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

If he is just about cutting it and doing okay in limited minutes or needing to be "insulated", do you actually believe that is better than getting all the ice-time in the world and being the center of the game in the AHL or SHL? I don't think that's the better development path at all, just like I think it's bad for most european juniors to get put into 5 minutes a game at the senior level instead of playing juniors in their draft years.

It depends on the player. Some guys are better off dominating before they move on, some need to be pushed in order to develop. And if pushing is needed, then it needs to be calibrated, hence the availability of insulation. Some games he won't play much. Some he'll play a ton. There's no need to frame this as a false dilemma between a season of 5 minutes a night in Anaheim versus a season of 1C minutes in SD or the SHL. It's not a video game, these are people.

I'm just opposed to the "NHL as soon as possible and at all cost" route. Again, if he can play in the NHL fulltime without sacrificing his potentially great skillset and playing simple for the sake of keeping up, then great. I personally don't believe it's worth the risk.

You're the only person who's made the proposition in the first sentence, stop putting it on other people. The rest is reasonable but it seems to be based on a misunderstanding of how development can work at the top level. Many, many elite players have developed in the NHL and started out with limited minutes, it's a completely uncontroversial phenomenon and has nothing to do with an obsession with rushing players or trying to win.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Is Carlsson that much better than Zegras and McTavish today to secure a top-6C? If so, then hot damn!

My brain hasn't thought of that possibility because Z and Mac already have NHL experience at center, longer experience of playing on NA ice sheet with physical play, and belief both are better than Carlsson is today. I just want Carlsson playing top-6C minutes and situations. If he can displace Z at center, then I'm all for it. At the moment, I cannot see it happening, but it doesn't mean it cannot.

I guess the other reason I haven't thought of that possibility is McTavish wasn't given this much hype on this board (aside from myself), and he's a #3 OA pick. Both Mac and Carlsson played mostly wing for two seasons before being drafted. I also wanted Mac to play center in Europe (NL-B or NL-A) in his D+1 season because he learned to expand his game over there such as playmaking. I'm glad Mac didn't stick with the NHL club in his D+1 season because he was able to play center in the CHL and dominated, even if he didn't get a point. That could be the reason why Mac made the transition from wing to center so quickly last year in his NHL rookie season, even played 1C for spell.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Is Carlsson that much better than Zegras and McTavish today to secure a top-6C? If so, then hot damn!

My brain hasn't thought of that possibility because Z and Mac already have NHL experience at center, longer experience of playing on NA ice sheet with physical play, and belief both are better than Carlsson is today. I just want Carlsson playing top-6C minutes and situations. If he can displace Z at center, then I'm all for it. At the moment, I cannot see it happening, but it doesn't mean it cannot.

Like the other poster, the objection seems to be more about you than it is about Leo.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Like the other poster, the objection seems to be more about you than it is about Leo.

Do I believe the overhype like you're doing? Nope. Am I open to the possibility? Sure, which I admit. Am I high on that possibility? No. Now that we've drafted Carlsson, it feels as though there's overhyping on Carlsson.

Unlike some other posters, including yourself, I wasn't fence flipping on my preference between Carlsson and Fantilli. I didn't need the WC to recognize Carlsson's talent. Between Carlsson and Fantilli, Fantilli is a more finished product now and Carlsson still has more development as well as upside in his future. I've been consistent on Carlsson's talent and believe it'll take some time before he's an established top-6C. Here's asst GM Madden on Carlsson:

On top of that, he made his his linemates better. So that's number one. I think that's the most important part of his game that we see continue to allow him to grow into a dominant first line center for us in the future. Obviously he's not done growing. Mentally, he's really mature. He understands himself physically. He's still not there yet. He's really strong on the ice, but he's got so much more potential as he'll keep growing and he'll be a different kid physically two years from now.​

The org is testing on where Carlsson can go play this year. They don't know where Carlsson will play, but they're not set on the NHL or bust mode:

"We're going to find the right league," Verbeek said. "If the NHL's not it, we'll try San Diego. If that's not it, then he'll go back to Orebro. We're just going to wait and see."​

You haven't presented specific projections why Carlsson will be a top-6C to start this season full-time, not part time as you've already suggested. I believe in the hype of Carlsson, but I don't believe in the overhyping of Carlsson, which is more about you than Carlsson or other posters. I like possibilities, but don't mistake it for probability.