Confirmed with Link: Leafs to sign Woll to 3 year extension on July 1st

[ACC1224]

Why should Brossoit or Stolarz accept less as UFAs than Woll is getting for 40 games of NHL experience

If they are offered more elsewhere they'll be free to accept it.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Why should Brossoit or Stolarz accept less as UFAs than Woll is getting for 40 games of NHL experience

They're significantly older than Woll and haven't shown they can be a starter in the league.

Woll's new contract is about projection.

 

[ponder]

I like this. Fans tend to overstate how much some players are “injury prone,” vs. others “healthy.” With a totally random distribution of injuries, a few years into a player’s career some players will be injury free, others will have suffered numerous injuries, but it’s not necessarily predictive of the future.

Lots of players considered “injury prone” at one point go on to be very healthy, others considered “healthy” go on to suffer big injuries. Woll’s injury history is definitely a consideration, but not as big a consideration as many fans think. Especially since he’s had different injuries - back, high ankle sprain, shoulder. That’s a lot less scary and less predictive of future injuries than one chronic problem that keeps getting re-injured.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I guess for comps you look at Sam Montembault or Filip Gustvasson

 

[Menzinger]

Why should Brossoit or Stolarz accept less as UFAs than Woll is getting for 40 games of NHL experience

Potential plays a big role in contracts like this. Older guys can't point to that as a factor. Brossoit is already over 30

 

[Nineteen67]

He’s a good goalie so they may as well take the chance that he stays healthy.

 

[Gilmour1996]

I wonder if they'll run it back and sign Matt Murray @ league minimum as Woll's backup?

 

[ToneDog]

I like this. Fans tend to overstate how much some players are “injury prone,” vs. others “healthy.” With a totally random distribution of injuries, a few years into a player’s career some players will be injury free, others will have suffered numerous injuries, but it’s not necessarily predictive of the future.

Lots of players considered “injury prone” at one point go on to be very healthy, others considered “healthy” go on to suffer big injuries. Woll’s injury history is definitely a consideration, but not as big a consideration as many fans think.

Clearly not a consideration for the brains at MLSEL. Needed to squeeze Woll, not overpay him. Tre's contracts are starting to be worry some to me. Dubas was bad but he seemed to be better at it with the lower paid players. Tre has just been bad IMO.

 

[Sypher04]

If they are offered more elsewhere they'll be free to accept it.

They will be and they’d take it.

They're significantly older than Woll and haven't shown they can be a starter in the league.

Woll's new contract is about projection.

I’m fine with Woll’s contract. I think it’s a little much and a gamble but it’s a livable one.

I think it’s major wishful thinking to expect either Brossoit or Stolarz would take those to play tandem with us, age difference or not.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I wonder if they'll run it back and sign Matt Murray @ league minimum as Woll's backup?

No definitely not, we like Woll but we'd be stupid to disregard his injury history, you're going to want someone that can play behind and ideally has a history of staying healthy.

They will be and they’d take it.



I’m fine with Woll’s contract. I think it’s a little much and a gamble but it’s a livable one.

I think it’s major wishful thinking to expect either Brossoit or Stolarz would take those to play tandem with us, age difference or not.

Ned just signed 2.5M x 2, no reason to believe that isn't enough to secure 1 of the other goalies mentioned.

 

[Menzinger]

Ok aside from the fact that he also has f*** all games played, he also has a .912 sv% in his young career, hardly anything groundbreaking. What precisely is his leverage here for getting paid that kind of money?

Think about it if he was a top nine forward around his age, he'd be getting somewhere around a similar salary. Think back to the Kapanen or Kerfoot deals - this is right in the ballpark.

His leverage is that he doesn't have to sign a contract now. If the Leafs believe that he can be a piece moving forward, which they clearly seem to, this represents an opportunity to lock him up at under starter money.

It's still may flop in the Leafs faces in if he regresses, but I don't see anything particularly abnormal about this type of contract

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Only a matter of time before they announce Marner @ 12.5mx8. WTF is in the water at MLSEL?

 

[notbias]

They're significantly older than Woll and haven't shown they can be a starter in the league.

Woll's new contract is about projection.

Should we be paying for projection?

If Woll plays like he has in the playoffs and stays healthy, he will be the best goalie in the league, it will be a great contract, all praise Woll and Treliving, we have multiple cups.

If he has his regular season numbers and stays healthy, he is worth this contract, not sure how much of a bargain it is.

I think this could end up being a $2 million overpay or a $1 million underpay... not a huge deal either way, it just seems like the contract is premature.

If it was 3x$2.5 million or something, you take that gamble, this just seems like it may end up being the correct number or a slight overpay.

 

[Nineteen67]

I wonder what else is going on that triggered this information to be released today?

 

[notbias]

I wonder if they'll run it back and sign Matt Murray @ league minimum as Woll's backup?

If he is 100% healthy, not against that.

Murray still has starter potential in my opinion... he showed some here.

I'd also just have an option 2B somewhere.

Young enough as well.

 

[Sypher04]

No definitely not, we like Woll but we'd be stupid to disregard his injury history, you're going to want someone that can play behind and ideally has a history of staying healthy.



Ned just signed 2.5M x 2, no reason to believe that isn't enough to secure 1 of the other goalies mentioned.

Ned’s results are highly middling. Since 2019-20 he’s had 1 season where he finished with better than a .902 save percentage. Brossoit and Stolarz are not. Ned also didn’t have at least a half dozen teams bidding as a UFA

 

[Sypher04]

Potential plays a big role in contracts like this. Older guys can't point to that as a factor. Brossoit is already over 30

Yes I get that. But if you’re trying to get Brossoit as a UFA and Ned just signed for 2.5 and Woll with 40 games gets 3.5 I just don’t see any rationale for why he’s taking less with much better results.

Woll has potential. Brossoit and Stolarz have actual NHL resumes

 

[WTFMAN99]

Ned’s results are highly middling. Since 2019-20 he’s had 1 season where he finished with better than a .902 save percentage. Brossoit and Stolarz are not. Ned also didn’t have at least a half dozen teams bidding as a UFA

I hold the opinion that one of Talbot, Stolarz or Broissoit come in 2-3 years at 2-2.75M range.

We'll see in about a week's time if that is true.

 

[Fogelhund]

Why should Brossoit or Stolarz accept less as UFAs than Woll is getting for 40 games of NHL experience

Supply and demand... that we paid Woll X, isn't going to change the offers that they are getting from other teams. If we offer the best compelling salary + opportunity, they'll sign with us, even if that's well below what Woll gets.

 

[Kazparov]

Holy over reactions Batman.

If he is injured, it's an LTIR contract. Everytime he's played he looks good.

 

[Sypher04]

Supply and demand... that we paid Woll X, isn't going to change the offers that they are getting from other teams. If we offer the best compelling salary + opportunity, they'll sign with us, even if that's well below what Woll gets.

By my count there should be anywhere from 6-10 teams competing to sign these guys. They won’t get their biggest offers from here, most likely, but it seems to me like in a soft goalie UFA market people are being a little too optimistic on the leverage these couple guys will have.

I bet Brossoit and Stolarz both get up to the 3-3.5M range, especially since you’re signing either as a tandem goalie not a clear cut backup option like they were this season. Talbot I think has the best odds of coming in a bit cheaper largely due to age.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

This actually makes sense. They overpaid Nylander for 37 games too.

 

[HockeyVirus]

This fanbase is just addicted to being outraged I think.

 

[notbias]

Holy over reactions Batman.

If he is injured, it's an LTIR contract. Everytime he's played he looks good.

Players need to be legitimately injured to go on LTIR and stay there (unless you are Mark Stone).

I understand the thought, but Woll is not injury-prone enough to be retiring at this stage in his career.

If he goes on LTIR, he will likely be off LTIR the same season.

This fanbase is just addicted to being outraged I think.

It isn't a good contract... or at least a deserved contract.

I don't see any overreactions, just people confused about how his body of work equals that contract.

I don't think anyone is outraged.

 

[Fogelhund]

Players need to be legitimately injured to go on LTIR and stay there (unless you are Mark Stone).

I understand the thought, but Woll is not injury-prone enough to be retiring at this stage in his career.

If he goes on LTIR, he will likely be off LTIR the same season.

and if he comes off LTIR, he'll play.. which is just fine.

LTIR is not retirement, nor is it intended to be....