Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[Legion34]

The Athletic reported that the number was in the 16s for him to sign max term.

The speculation on his next contract is just that though, speculation. We'll never really know. We can pontificate based on randomness (like above or in the next sentence), but it's not just the next four years beyond this extension that play into the decision. If the next contract is 15 for 8, it's not just about the next four because he doesn't get that if he signs 13.25 for 8 now.

Dude wanted a mid-term length deal and we got a number that is both reasonable and gives us flexibility when he turns 30. This isn't bad for us and it's obviously what he wanted.

They also said it would have been 14 to get him for 8 last time

We got him for 12.35 x9.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They also said it would have been 14 to get him for 8 last time

I think the real thing to learn from this is to not listen to random media speculation about what if scenarios. They're just pulling guesses out of thin air. Most of the time, they directly contradict each other.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Your picture is of a fake tweet, and wasn't from when he signed anyway. Both of your claimed rates are wrong. As is how you're attempting to use them. There is no one "RFA rate" and "UFA rate" in the first place. Different RFA years will have different values, and different UFA years will have different values.

Shanahan wouldn't hire somebody that didn't have the same immediate view for the core in the first place.

So that could mean a repeat of the 5 previous years then?

 

[Stephen]

I'm curious.


What argument does McDavid have for being paid so much?

He hasn't won a cup yet, and although he has reached a round further than Matthews has in the playoffs, his team was swept in that next round....

In fact, McDavid has missed the playoffs twice in his NHL career despite playing in a pathetically weak division.


So, if individual awards are in no way to be determinant of a player's contract demands, what makes McDavid worthy of such a lofty salary?

I think generalizations between McDavid and Matthews should be avoided because his offensive dominance is in an entirely different category, even if we assumed they were both playoff flunkies for the sake of argument.

For example. The point total disparity between McDavid and Matthews in 2023 was larger than the point total disparity between Matthews and Justin Holl. There’s something different going on with McDavid.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So that could mean a repeat of the 5 previous years then?

If you mean repeat of being one of the best teams in the league, sure, if Treliving doesn't mess things up.
If you mean repeat of the specific playoff outcomes we've had over the past 5 years, no. Playoff outcomes are always changing.

 

[Arzak]

I dont think its a coincidence that high aav contracts slowed during covid and have picked up the past 2 offseasons.

Mac and Pasta will jump Marner before the deal expires. McDavid will create a bigger delta than the past few years

The first part no argument there, definitely COVID played a major role, but I would still expect to see more players on that list over a 6 years period.

Pasta as a potential UFA eclipsed Marner RFA contract AAV by a whopping 250K, not sure you wanna go there.

Edit: On the bright side, if there is one player in the league that will make Matthews's contract look good. It's Marner. PKings stock went through the roof the last couple of years, brace yourself!

 

[Mess]

I love Matthews but he gave us 0 discount. Not to mention his down year affected his contract in no way whatsoever.

Let's hope he starts playing like MVP caliber player again. Most likely he will, but I don't think it's guaranteed.

His wrist can be FUBAR and we just paid for 85p or he'll bounce back for another Rocket /Hart (is runner-up/in discussion since McJesus might score 90 next season). That's before you consider this was suppose to be the year he chased contract.

Now that he has a bigger Cap hit then anyone in the NHL starting in 2024-25 lets hope he leads the NHL in scoring both goals and points winning Art Ross scoring championships.

If he starts putting up more 40 goals 85 point seasons like last year then the Leafs Cup competitiveness will be in a world of hurt as the highest Cap hit player in the game and thus the less cap space for the surrounding cast.

As a comparison Willy Nylander put up 40 goals and 87 points last year and Toronto is trying to get him signed for around $9 mil AAV per for the same production Matthews provided. Playoffs Matthews 11 games 5-6-11 points vs Nylander 11 games 4-6-10 points.

So you can quickly see the nightmare that Leafs find themselves in if AM produces like WN and one eats up $13.25 mil Cap while the other comes in at $9 mil and they both produce similar goals ie 40ish. What would Leafs be gaining by investing +$4.25 mil annual cap space more in Matthews?

If Nylander is worth $9 mil for 40 goals [= $225k per goal via cap space consumption] then Matthews at $13.25 mil AAV [=@ $225k per goal] = 58.8 goals per season.

PS. Then David Pastrnak is coming off a 61 goal 113 point season and that earned him a new contract at 8 years @ 11.250 mil AAV, while Leafs are hoping Matthews pops 60 goals for $13.25 mil.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Nylander is worth $9 mil for 40 goals

Nylander is worth what he's worth based on more than just raw goals in one cherry picked season.

 

[Arzak]

Now that he has a bigger Cap hit then anyone in the NHL starting in 2024-25 lets hope he leads the NHL in scoring both goals and points winning Art Ross scoring championships.

If he starts putting up more 40 goals 85 point seasons like last year then the Leafs Cup competitiveness will be in a world of hurt as the highest Cap hit player in the game and thus the less cap space for the surrounding cast.

As a comparison Willy Nylander put up 40 goals and 87 points last year and Toronto is trying to get him signed for around $9 mil AAV per for the same production Matthews provided. Playoffs Matthews 11 games 5-6-11 points vs Nylander 11 games 4-6-10 points.

So you can quickly see the nightmare that Leafs find themselves in if AM produces like WN and one eats up $13.25 mil Cap while the other comes in at $9 mil and they both produce similar goals ie 40ish. What would Leafs be gaining by investing +$4.25 mil annual cap space more in Matthews?

If Nylander is worth $9 mil for 40 goals [= $225k per goal via cap space consumption] then Matthews at $13.25 mil AAV [=@ $225k per goal] = 58.8 goals per season.

We drew the line with Nylander. Everyone else is free to compare their best season with Matthews or JTs at the time of signing.

Somehow it's no go for Nylander. His 40 goals 87 points are better than JTs 38 goals 86 points which resulted in us paying JT $11M (6 years ago btw).

 

[Mess]

Your picture is of a fake tweet, and wasn't from when he signed anyway. Both of your claimed rates are wrong. As is how you're attempting to use them. There is no one "RFA rate" and "UFA rate" in the first place. Different RFA years will have different values, and different UFA years will have different values.

Matthews turned down this Leafs’ offer before they finally got it right

Leaked information reveals more about the Leafs’ money struggles…

While it seems like the Auston Matthews contract extension that was announced back in February didn’t take much effort to the Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman revealed in his latest 31 Thoughts podcast that the first offer was declined by the star player.

According to Friedman, the Leafs wanted to sign Matthews to a three-year bridge deal that would’ve taken him one year away from unrestricted free agency. However, Matthews’ camp was seeking a $9M annual hit, which the Leafs weren’t interested in doing.

Matthews turned down this Leafs’ offer before they finally got it right

Leaked information reveals more about the Leafs’ money struggles…

www.hockeyfeed.com

 

[Arzak]

Nylander is worth what he's worth based on more than just raw goals in one cherry picked season.

If anything one season with the most relevance to contract negotiation/predicting future performance is the last one.

Yet you had to add cherry-picked, no basis in reality just pretending that expected 5v5 per Tusdays during ELC is just as relevant as THE LAST SEASON DATA .

Nope, the most recent hence relevant data are cherry-picked now.

Advanced stats should be used to predict future raw data, not to look down on them and be used to justify a lack of production.

 

[Legion34]

We drew the line with Nylander. Everyone else is free to compare their best season with Matthews or JTs at the time of signing.

Somehow it's no go for Nylander. His 40 goals 87 points are better than JTs 38 goals 86 points which resulted in us paying JT $11M (6 years ago btw).

JT was a 2 time hat finalist and gave up the art Ross by having his own points take n away from him

 

[LeafEgo]

LMAO nothing changes the fact that McDavid took over 16% of his teams cap. That is a fact. Another fact is that Matthews has never taken up 16% or more of his teams cap.

Matthews is taking up the same amount of cap space, in terms of percentage, as his previous 5 year contract. Which means Leafs are getting Matthews at a lower cost than McDavid (signed 8 years) for a total of 9 years.

You can play with the numbers but you start to lose sight of the fact that McD from 2019-26 and Matty from 2020-27 will take home the same amount of money, and one team would go back and do things differently if they could.

 

[Zur En Arrh]

I'm curious.


What argument does McDavid have for being paid so much?

He hasn't won a cup yet, and although he has reached a round further than Matthews has in the playoffs, his team was swept in that next round....

In fact, McDavid has missed the playoffs twice in his NHL career despite playing in a pathetically weak division.


So, if individual awards are in no way to be determinant of a player's contract demands, what makes McDavid worthy of such a lofty salary?

I mean if he stays in Edmonton , which I don't know why he would, id say he deserves it cause Edmonton...

 

[Zur En Arrh]

You can play with the numbers but you start to lose sight of the fact that McD from 2019-26 and Matty from 2020-27 will take home the same amount of money, and one team would go back and do things differently if they could.

I think mcd would do it different. 8 years was expected when he signed. It was either 2 year bridge or 8 years. 4&5 was unheard of. Mcd should of been the one to start this and I think he regrets it. He prob wishes he signed five making it 8 years in Edmonton and then signed another five in Toronto (where he's always wanted to be,)

 

[francis246]

You can play with the numbers but you start to lose sight of the fact that McD from 2019-26 and Matty from 2020-27 will take home the same amount of money, and one team would go back and do things differently if they could.

Yeah probably Edmonton, they’d probably never hire Peter Chiarelli lmao. The guy is an awful GM and their goaltending is atrocious. People act like Edmonton is the gold standard, what the hell has Connor and Leon done? They’ve won a few rounds but who cares they’ve never won the cup or sniffed the finals. They are the exact same as the leafs IMO. Just the western conference version.

 

[pcruz]

I think generalizations between McDavid and Matthews should be avoided because his offensive dominance is in an entirely different category, even if we assumed they were both playoff flunkies for the sake of argument.

For example. The point total disparity between McDavid and Matthews in 2023 was larger than the point total disparity between Matthews and Justin Holl. There’s something different going on with McDavid.

I didn't ask for generalizations, I asked specifically what is the reason some people look at one player with his regular season success and lack of post season success, and then another player with regular season success and lack of post season success.

One player is scrutinized in one manner with regards to compensation, and the other is scrutinized in another manner.

It's hypocritical for someone to simultaneously say:

"Regular season stats and individual awards don't mean jack shit, a player's end goal success is the barometer for what he should be paid"

and

"This player's regular season dominance is the barometer for being the highest paid player in the NHL despite his lack of post season success.


That's all I'm getting at.

The hypocrisy of some people within this fanbase, as clearly depicted within the discussion of this contract.

 

[Stephen]

I didn't ask for generalizations, I asked specifically what is the reason some people look at one player with his regular season success and lack of post season success, and then another player with regular season success and lack of post season success.

One player is scrutinized in one manner with regards to compensation, and the other is scrutinized in another manner.

It's hypocritical for someone to simultaneously say:

"Regular season stats and individual awards don't mean jack shit, a player's end goal success is the barometer for what he should be paid"

and

"This player's regular season dominance is the barometer for being the highest paid player in the NHL despite his lack of post season success.


That's all I'm getting at.

The hypocrisy of some people within this fanbase, as clearly depicted within the discussion of this contract.

The problem is not hypocrisy. You are just not registering the magnitude of McDavid’s statistical dominance in the regular season even if he was a complete dog at defense and a total playoff bust.

McDavid’s numbers cannot be understated. He’s been in the league one more season than Matthews and has 850 career points to 542. That’s a 300 point difference in a 7-8 year career representing 3x additional 100 point seasons. Go find a player Matthews has a 300 point lead on over this time and that’s the difference between these two players.

You can’t use McDavid to establish some whataboutism here.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews turned down this Leafs’ offer before they finally got it right

A hockeyfeed article that references the same obscure tweet is not evidence that something happened, or happened in the way it's being claimed. It's pretty easy to figure out that it's not true. Which shouldn't be surprising, considering that we've seen throughout this current Matthews signing period how little hockey media knows about the specifics of negotiations, and how their claims literally contradict each other. And these are ones made at the time, not ones that weirdly pop out of nowhere a year later. Probably better to focus on what happened instead of an unsupported rumour one guy made about something that didn't happen.

And for the record, even if it were true, that wouldn't change your incorrect use of that supposed information in trying to form a contract. And any valuation made then wouldn't be relevant to his eventual signing in the first place, because more had happened since then.

 

[francis246]

The problem is not hypocrisy. You are just not registering the magnitude of McDavid’s statistical dominance in the regular season even if he was a complete dog at defense and a total playoff bust.

McDavid’s numbers cannot be understated. He’s been in the league one more season than Matthews and has 850 career points to 542. That’s a 300 point difference in a 7-8 year career representing 3x additional 100 point seasons. Go find a player Matthews has a 300 point lead on over this time and that’s the difference between these two players.

You can’t use McDavid to establish some whataboutism here.

I think you’re missing the point. No one is saying McDavid is comparable to Matthews regular season wise. The point is McDavid really hasn’t had a ton of playoff success. He’s made the second round twice but has not done much other than that and has made the playoffs less than Matthews has in his career to date.

I think the hypocrisy comes when people try and diminish the things Matthews has done in his career or even Marner with lack of playoff success but then that is never applied to Leon or Connor who have also shit the bed in the playoffs and are better players than Matthews and Marner. So why are they not held to the same standard?

 

[Gabriel426]

I think you’re missing the point. No one is saying McDavid is comparable to Matthews regular season wise. The point is McDavid really hasn’t had a ton of playoff success. He’s made the second round twice but has not done much other than that and has made the playoffs less than Matthews has in his career to date.

I think the hypocrisy comes when people try and diminish the things Matthews has done in his career or even Marner with lack of playoff success but then that is never applied to Leon or Connor who have also shit the bed in the playoffs and are better players than Matthews and Marner. So why are they not held to the same standard?

Have you looked at Leon and McD playoff points?
I think in the 2022 playoffs alone, both got as many points as AM and MM in their career.

You can argue McD and Leon didn’t make the playoffs as often as AM and MM but when you compare to the rest of the players on the team, you can’t deny the Leafs are always better with better supporting players. The fact that Ennis was a 4th liner with the Leafs and the following year, Oilers traded for him to play with McD shows what type of depth and Dumb MGT decisions Oilers made.

I would just stop comparing McD to any players bc McD is on a completely different tiers than anybody else.

 

[ToneDog]

Have you looked at Leon and McD playoff points?
I think in the 2022 playoffs alone, both got as many points as AM and MM in their career.

You can argue McD and Leon didn’t make the playoffs as often as AM and MM but when you compare to the rest of the players on the team, you can’t deny the Leafs are always better with better supporting players. The fact that Ennis was a 4th liner with the Leafs and the following year, Oilers traded for him to play with McD shows what type of depth and Dumb MGT decisions Oilers made.

I would just stop comparing McD to any players bc McD is on a completely different tiers than anybody else.

McDavid looks ready to break through to the SCF. When was the last time we played 16 playoff games ?? Not sure why some still want to say he hasn't had playoff success (I imagine some Leafs fans wetting their pants if one of our stars put up 75 points in 49 playoff games) when he's dominated the last two years and if not for some mediocre goaltending, he could have taken the Oil to the SCF.

 

[leafs in five]

When Matthews scored 4 goals in his debut, I thought we might have a couple of cups by now. Instead we're discussing if our coach can do some more growing, if Marner can "figure it out" one day, what a clusterf*** this franchise has become.

as I read this my mind cycles through images of the first decade post-lockout, flickering faster and faster like the scene at the end of The Wire but it's Clarkson, Finger, trading the Seguin and Hamilton picks for Kessel, Komisarek, McClement, Jasons Blake and Allison, Tim Connolly, Giguere, Andy Wozniewski, 3 picks for Bolland and Toskala, 2nd rd picks for Bernier, Peter Holland, Yanic Perreault, Steen for Stempniak, Rask for Raycroft, Tyler Biggs, Brad Ross, the Ponikarovsky-Sundin-Wellwood line. these days we're a laughing stock for what, re-signing the best players the team's ever developed and having a coach under whom we've won regular season games at like a 70% clip? and yeah yeah regular season, I don't really even like Keefe, but honestly

 

[Bomber0104]

Have you looked at Leon and McD playoff points?
I think in the 2022 playoffs alone, both got as many points as AM and MM in their career.

[...]

I would just stop comparing McD to any players bc McD is on a completely different tiers than anybody else.

Oh man, now he's going to start comparing him to Gretzky...

 

[Gary Nylund]

as I read this my mind cycles through images of the first decade post-lockout, flickering faster and faster like the scene at the end of The Wire but it's Clarkson, Finger, trading the Seguin and Hamilton picks for Kessel, Komisarek, McClement, Jasons Blake and Allison, Tim Connolly, Giguere, Andy Wozniewski, 3 picks for Bolland and Toskala, 2nd rd picks for Bernier, Peter Holland, Yanic Perreault, Steen for Stempniak, Rask for Raycroft, Tyler Biggs, Jared Knight, the Ponikarovsky-Sundin-Wellwood line. these days we're a laughing stock for what, re-signing the best players the team's ever developed and having a coach under whom we've won regular season games at like a 70% clip? and yeah yeah regular season, I don't really even like Keefe, but honestly

So you're happy that the team is better than most of the other shitty teams we've had over the last 50 years. Nothing wrong with that, be happy.

I want to go deep in the playoffs myself and I'm disappointed that time and time again, this team underachieves in the playoffs.

We re-signed our best players, so what. Almost every team manages to re-sign their best players so what's the big deal? And while there's nothing wrong with talent, I'd rather have playoff success myself and if the players who manage to do that some day are less talented than our current crop of stars, I won't be bothered by that even one little bit.

Win.