Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[ToneDog]

Under Keefe, last couple of seasons the rinse wash repeat is, they typically struggle in October, go Super Nova hot in November, tail off in December. If that pattern follows this year does Keefe get a chance to see November?

2022-23 - October 13th in the east 4-4-2 against some soft opponents. November - 11-1-3.
2021-22 - October 11th in the east 4-4-1. November - 12-2

The Leafs have been November darlings, Keefe hopes that loose trend continues.

Hopefully he will be tanked before the end of December if we see a repeat.

 

[Hellcat]

Hopefully he will be tanked before the end of December if we see a repeat.

While I never wish ill on anyone, IMO he still has room to grow as a coach, not sure the best thing for this veteran team, is a coach who is still cutting his teeth as a pro coach.

Then again if the the options are Guy Boucher and some old recycled Hab coaches, Therien, Vignault, Julien, etc.. ... I'm not sure the options are better than the current status quo.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He probably didn’t. I mean, really, what choice did he have?

He had every possible pathway available to him. He kept them because he knows that's what's best for the team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

While I never wish ill on anyone, IMO he still has room to grow as a coach, not sure the best thing for this veteran team, is a coach who is still cutting his teeth as a pro coach.

Then again if the the options are Guy Boucher and some old recycled Hab coaches, Therien, Vignault, Julien, etc.. ... I'm not sure the options are better than the current status quo.

When Matthews scored 4 goals in his debut, I thought we might have a couple of cups by now. Instead we're discussing if our coach can do some more growing, if Marner can "figure it out" one day, what a clusterf*** this franchise has become.

 

[81Leafs50]

Unfortunately many people confuse this concept when understanding how contracts work. Too bad our former GM didn't understand this.

McDavid has a $12.5 mil AAV based on a 8 year term average . That was his CH% at time of signing only. Matthews has a an AAV of $11.634 mil but for only 5 year term. The Oilers only need to fit $12.5 mil under their cap ceiling each year as his average since a players AAV remains static & constant throughout, so as the Salary Cap ceiling rises a players CH% declines over time giving the team an advantage the longer they get a player to sign for. That is why you see smart GMs sign players for 8 years because they amortize the original cap hit in year #1 over term.

Next season when Matthews new deal kicks in his AAV = $13,25 mil while McDavid remains $12.5 mil because of term, and that is why Matthews last contract was so bad because Matthews takes up more of Leafs total team cap space of $87.5 mil ceiling than McDavid now does in 2024-25.

Cap Hit % = A players AAV/ NHL Salary Cap Ceiling. Therefore since AAV (annual average value) is static and Salary Cap ceiling is Variable the more it increase the less the player impact his team.

You can look in capfriendly if you don't believe me, CapFriendly - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

This is their new adjusted Cap Hit for this upcoming season as reported on their web site, and neither players original CH% at time of signing is no longer relevant its recalculated.

View attachment 739318

You can verify that CAP% if you want ........... Matthews @ $11.640,250 AAV / $ 83,500,000 mil (Salary Cap Ceiling for 2023-24) = 13.9 %
& when Matthews new contract kicks in .... Matthews @ $13,250,000 AAV / $ 87,500,000 mil (Salary Cap Ceiling for 2024-25) = 15.1 %
vs. McDavid (with 3 years remaining) .......... McDavid . @ $12,500,000 AAV / $ 87,500,000 mil (Salary Cap Ceiling for 2024-25) = 14.3%

LMAO nothing changes the fact that McDavid took over 16% of his teams cap. That is a fact. Another fact is that Matthews has never taken up 16% or more of his teams cap.

Matthews is taking up the same amount of cap space, in terms of percentage, as his previous 5 year contract. Which means Leafs are getting Matthews at a lower cost than McDavid (signed 8 years) for a total of 9 years.

 

[666]

LMAO nothing changes the fact that McDavid took over 16% of his teams cap. That is a fact. Another fact is that Matthews has never taken up 16% or more of his teams cap.

Matthews is taking up the same amount of cap space, in terms of percentage, as his previous 5 year contract. Which means Leafs are getting Matthews at a lower cost than McDavid (signed 8 years) for a total of 9 years.

The most McDavid got paid was 15.72% of the cap. In 2018-19 the cap was $79,500,000 and he was paid $12,500,000.

Matthews current contract was 14.28% at its maximum and the new contract will be 15.14% of the expected cap next year.

Over the 7 years where their contracts overlap. McDavid will make $87,500,000 and Matthews will now make $84,701,250.

Over the first 8 years of their post ELC contracts which are staggered because McDavid is older, McDavid will make $100,000,000 and Matthews we now know will make $97,951,250.

Those are the facts.

 

[Mess]

LMAO nothing changes the fact that McDavid took over 16% of his teams cap. That is a fact. Another fact is that Matthews has never taken up 16% or more of his teams cap.

Matthews is taking up the same amount of cap space, in terms of percentage, as his previous 5 year contract. Which means Leafs are getting Matthews at a lower cost than McDavid (signed 8 years) for a total of 9 years.

Yes on original signing date of their 2nd contracts only was your statement true,

Not sure what your misunderstanding ... IF both McDavid and Matthews contracts were both of equal length of 8 years then it would be mathematically impossible for Matthews @ $11.634 mil AAV to pass McDavid at 12.5 mil AAV and since CH% is calculated and based on a Players AAV / NHL Salary Cap ceiling, however the Salary Cap Ceiling is variable and either flat or increasing that changes the players impact each season.

But CH% gets adjusted with each new contract when a players new AAV is calculated, so following next year in 2024-25 when McDavid is still under contract for $12.5 mil and Matthews new contract is at $13.25 mil then Matthews consumes more of the teams total max Salary Cap which is a players Cap Hit %.

Here currently are top players Cap Hits for 2024-25 season making Auston Matthews the highest paid CH% player in the game.

PS. A players actual Cap Hit = AAV (average annual value).

 

[PromisedLand]

Realistically who is expecting this team to go deep in the playoffs given evidence from past playoffs; and the so called "asks" from the players up for contracts with Matthews already getting his big share of the salary cup pie

???

 

[Arzak]

Matthews .. 5 years @ $58 mil total + 4 years @ $53 mil total = 9 years @ $111 mil = $12.33 AAV (average over both contracts)
vs
McDavid 8 years @ $100 mil total = $12.5 mil AAV.

Leafs over the same time period have agreed to play Matthews on average $170 k less than the best player on the planet, who has 5 scoring titles 4 Lindsey and 3 Hart trophies + 1 rocket to his name and named the NHL's 1st team All-Star center 6 of his 8 seasons in the league.

$170 k less

You know that few posters here could work some magic with this number to give us better picture.

I mean if you consider how much McDavid left on the table, or if you look at what we gave to UFA JT.

Matthews could ignore McDavid as his comparable and just point to C on his team, who got 11M as UFA, from the same Shanahan

 

[Arzak]

Yes on original signing date of their 2nd contracts only was your statement true,

Not sure what your misunderstanding ... IF both McDavid and Matthews contracts were both of equal length of 8 years then it would be mathematically impossible for Matthews @ $11.634 mil AAV to pass McDavid at 12.5 mil AAV and since CH% is calculated and based on a Players AAV / NHL Salary Cap ceiling, however the Salary Cap Ceiling is variable and either flat or increasing that changes the players impact each season.

But CH% gets adjusted with each new contract when a players new AAV is calculated, so following next year in 2024-25 when McDavid is still under contract for $12.5 mil and Matthews new contract is at $13.25 mil then Matthews consumes more of the teams total max Salary Cap which is a players Cap Hit %.

Here currently are top players Cap Hits for 2024-25 season making Auston Matthews the highest paid CH% player in the game.

View attachment 739566

PS. A players actual Cap Hit = AAV (average annual value).

Pasta is just entering the list and we still got 3 out of 9 here?

Sure part of it was timing since Pasta won Rocket on $6.66M contract and wan't due for resigning, but still...

We went the entire length of Matthews and soon-to-be Nylanders, Marners and JTs contracts without any team bothering to water our top 10 paid players list supremacy. Insane.

Ok I see why we are so hard on Nylander. It could be 4 out 10 with Matthews leading

 

[Gallagbi]

Pasta is just entering the list and we still got 3 out of 9 here?

Sure part of it was timing since Pasta won Rocket on $6.66M contract and wan't due for resigning, but still...

We went the entire length of Matthews and soon-to-be Nylanders, Marners and JTs contracts without any team bothering to water our top 10 paid players list supremacy. Insane.

Ok I see why we are so hard on Nylander. It could be 4 out 10 with Matthews leading

I dont think its a coincidence that high aav contracts slowed during covid and have picked up the past 2 offseasons.

Mac and Pasta will jump Marner before the deal expires. McDavid will create a bigger delta than the past few years

 

[tuckerintensity]

I'm kind of curious now what sort of AAV Matthews would have needed for the full 8 years to leave 4 years of guaranteed money off the table.

If it's $15 million per season over 8 years he would require something like this on the future deal.

Year 1 $13.25 million.
Year 2 $13.25 million.
Year 3 $13.25 million.
Year 4 $13.25 million.

=$53 million

Next Contract

Year 5 $17.75 million.
Year 6 $17.75 million.
Year 7 $17.75 million.
Year 8 $17.75 million.

=$71 million

That would be the difference between $120 million over 8 years vs $106 million over 8 years if he just went $13.25 million for max term. I get $14 million is an astronomical amount of money, but feels like there's quite a bit of exposure on the player side too.

The Athletic reported that the number was in the 16s for him to sign max term.

The speculation on his next contract is just that though, speculation. We'll never really know. We can pontificate based on randomness (like above or in the next sentence), but it's not just the next four years beyond this extension that play into the decision. If the next contract is 15 for 8, it's not just about the next four because he doesn't get that if he signs 13.25 for 8 now.

Dude wanted a mid-term length deal and we got a number that is both reasonable and gives us flexibility when he turns 30. This isn't bad for us and it's obviously what he wanted.

 

[Stephen]

The Athletic reported that the number was in the 16s for him to sign max term.

The speculation on his next contract is just that though, speculation. We'll never really know. We can pontificate based on randomness (like above or in the next sentence), but it's not just the next four years beyond this extension that play into the decision. If the next contract is 15 for 8, it's not just about the next four because he doesn't get that if he signs 13.25 for 8 now.

Dude wanted a mid-term length deal and we got a number that is both reasonable and gives us flexibility when he turns 30. This isn't bad for us and it's obviously what he wanted.

Oh I agree. I’m satisfied with the AAV and term (2 more years would have been bullseye for me)… and I respect the desire to have flexibility for both sides.

What I’m trying to get at is at the end of the day, will the shorter term yield more career earnings, by how much and if at all and will it be worth the risk. Not a Matthews thing specifically but does reinventing the wheel actually put more money into the players pocket vs a more conventional security and term based approach.

 

[egd27]

LMAO nothing changes the fact that McDavid took over 16% of his teams cap. That is a fact

It is not a fact.

His Capfriendly "valuation" was over 16%. The amount the he actually "took" from the Oilers never exceeded 15.7% of the available cap.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I think the desire for sweeping changes is understandable. I find myself wishing for an expansion team by mid spring every year.

That said, the 3 year window you and the other poster are throwing out there for a pre-emptive rebuild is not rooted in reality.

The player wanted 3 years. Which is a 4 year commitment. And the team was pushing for 5, which would have been 6. So both parties see a longer runway than 3 years.

Things could always go sideways and maybe circumstances force them into a rebuild 3 years from now. But that’s probably not Plan A, B, C…

Also, three years means only one shot after getting rid of the Tavares albatross, so that's somewhat harsh.

 

[egd27]

Matthews could ignore McDavid as his comparable and just point to C on his team, who got 11M as UFA, from the same Shanahan

I suspect that is exactly what happened.

 

[Mess]

Now that Matthews has signed his new contract we know what value he attached to his Unrestricted free agency rate @ $13.25 mil and before he signed his 2nd deal Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year bridge deal which allows us to know at what value he set for his Restricted free agency rate @ $9 mil .

Since we know an 8 year contract coming our of a players ELC includes the first 4 years at RFA rate and the last 4 years at UFA rates we can now calculate Matthews asking price for a 8 year 2nd contract should have been.,

[4 X RFA @ $9 mil] = $36 mil + [4 X UFA @ $13.25 mil] = $53 mil which = 8 years for $89 mil total = $11.125 mil AAV

Instead due to the incompetence of a greenhorn GM Leaf paid more AAV for just 5 years $11.634 mil then should have been able to lock him up for 8 years at AM's value he placed on his RFA & UFA years.

Leafs are now forced to pay $13.25 mil AAV instead of $11.125 mil = $2.125 mil over-payment mistake.

 

[tuckerintensity]

Oh I agree. I’m satisfied with the AAV and term (2 more years would have been bullseye for me)… and I respect the desire to have flexibility for both sides.

What I’m trying to get at is at the end of the day, will the shorter term yield more career earnings, by how much and if at all and will it be worth the risk. Not a Matthews thing specifically but does reinventing the wheel actually put more money into the players pocket vs a more conventional security and term based approach.

I think it's possible given we've had this flat cap and we should start seeing some serious increases. If he's still a top player in four years, McDavid will have signed a deal that surpasses this and he can target that number. I don't think that's dissimilar from a guy like Nylander (Leafs board, so Leafs examples, but could be anyone). If he took a four year deal in the 9s and was producing in a similar manner in four years, he's looking at a higher number next time around. Likely a bit different because his comparable players will be all over and Matthews should be the best of the bunch, but same idea. It also gives the player some freedom if the team hits the skids (or someone else signs big money).

This is all based on betting on yourself to stay productive and healthy, of course. That's where I wonder if players will follow suit. Good case study though in a decade from now for players. Max term deals might not maximize your money. I don't know if Florida makes the trade if Tkachuk only signs for three years, but right now it looks like he would've been able to secure a lot more if he went that route.

 

[Stephen]

I think it's possible given we've had this flat cap and we should start seeing some serious increases. If he's still a top player in four years, McDavid will have signed a deal that surpasses this and he can target that number. I don't think that's dissimilar from a guy like Nylander (Leafs board, so Leafs examples, but could be anyone). If he took a four year deal in the 9s and was producing in a similar manner in four years, he's looking at a higher number next time around. Likely a bit different because his comparable players will be all over and Matthews should be the best of the bunch, but same idea. It also gives the player some freedom if the team hits the skids (or someone else signs big money).

This is all based on betting on yourself to stay productive and healthy, of course. That's where I wonder if players will follow suit. Good case study though in a decade from now for players. Max term deals might not maximize your money. I don't know if Florida makes the trade if Tkachuk only signs for three years, but right now it looks like he would've been able to secure a lot more if he went that route.

The bet on yourself approach has definitely been a double edged sword. In Toronto that typically means your secondary players price themselves out of market. But with Matthews hopefully we see a hungry and motivated superstar for the five years.

 

[Arzak]

Now that Matthews has signed his new contract we know what value he attached to his Unrestricted free agency rate @ $13.25 mil and before he signed his 2nd deal Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year bridge deal which allows us to know at what value he set for his Restricted free agency rate @ $9 mil .

View attachment 739590

Since we know an 8 year contract coming our of a players ELC includes the first 4 years at RFA rate and the last 4 years at UFA rates we can now calculate Matthews asking price for a 8 year 2nd contract should have been.,

[4 X RFA @ $9 mil] = $36 mil + [4 X UFA @ $13.25 mil] = $53 mil which = 8 years for $89 mil total = $11.125 mil AAV

Instead due to the incompetence of a greenhorn GM Leaf paid more AAV for just 5 years $11.634 mil then should have been able to lock him up for 8 years at AM's value he placed on his RFA & UFA years.

Leafs are now forced to pay $13.25 mil AAV instead of $11.125 mil = $2.125 mil over-payment mistake.

I love Matthews but he gave us 0 discount. Not to mention his down year affected his contract in no way whatsoever.

Let's hope he starts playing like MVP caliber player again. Most likely he will, but I don't think it's guaranteed.

His wrist can be FUBAR and we just paid for 85p or he'll bounce back for another Rocket /Hart (is runner-up/in discussion since McJesus might score 90 next season). That's before you consider this was suppose to be the year he chased contract.

 

[Gallagbi]

Now that Matthews has signed his new contract we know what value he attached to his Unrestricted free agency rate @ $13.25 mil and before he signed his 2nd deal Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year bridge deal which allows us to know at what value he set for his Restricted free agency rate @ $9 mil .

View attachment 739590

Since we know an 8 year contract coming our of a players ELC includes the first 4 years at RFA rate and the last 4 years at UFA rates we can now calculate Matthews asking price for a 8 year 2nd contract should have been.,

[4 X RFA @ $9 mil] = $36 mil + [4 X UFA @ $13.25 mil] = $53 mil which = 8 years for $89 mil total = $11.125 mil AAV

Instead due to the incompetence of a greenhorn GM Leaf paid more AAV for just 5 years $11.634 mil then should have been able to lock him up for 8 years at AM's value he placed on his RFA & UFA years.

Leafs are now forced to pay $13.25 mil AAV instead of $11.125 mil = $2.125 mil over-payment mistake.

Holy f*** this is a stupid post, even for you

 

[Captain Crunch]

Under Keefe, last couple of seasons the rinse wash repeat is, they typically struggle in October, go Super Nova hot in November, tail off in December. If that pattern follows this year does Keefe get a chance to see November?

2022-23 - October 13th in the east 4-4-2 against some soft opponents. November - 11-1-3.
2021-22 - October 11th in the east 4-4-1. November - 12-2

The Leafs have been November darlings, Keefe hopes that loose trend continues.

I’m thinking Tre is waiting for the chance to fire him, depending of course on who would be available.

He had every possible pathway available to him. He kept them because he knows that's what's best for the team.

Could be, but again, when your boss says they’re coming back, his only other choice was to not take the job.

 

[Gallagbi]

Could be, but again, when your boss says they’re coming back, his only other choice was to not take the job.

Feels like something you'd talk about in an interview. I cant imagine they completly ignored a plan for the big 4 when hiring a new GM

 

[pcruz]

Matthews .. 5 years @ $58 mil total + 4 years @ $53 mil total = 9 years @ $111 mil = $12.33 AAV (average over both contracts)
vs
McDavid 8 years @ $100 mil total = $12.5 mil AAV.

Leafs over the same time period have agreed to play Matthews on average $170 k less than the best player on the planet, who has 5 scoring titles 4 Lindsey and 3 Hart trophies + 1 rocket to his name and named the NHL's 1st team All-Star center 6 of his 8 seasons in the league.

You're absolutely right. In fact, it's not even debatable. But it is what it is. The Leafs mishandled their core beginning with the Tavares signing. They put themselves in this situation and Matthews used all the leverage they gave him. It's done. But, make no mistake... Matthews' legacy will be determined by the Leafs success over the next 5 seasons. If they continue to disappoint and cannot afford better players to get them over the hump, Matthews will end up taking the heat. Once again, it is what it is. He'll either live up to his demands and go down as a hero or he'll go down as the biggest disappointment in Leafs history. It's up to him now as he somewhat handcuffed the Leafs by choice.

I'm curious.


What argument does McDavid have for being paid so much?

He hasn't won a cup yet, and although he has reached a round further than Matthews has in the playoffs, his team was swept in that next round....

In fact, McDavid has missed the playoffs twice in his NHL career despite playing in a pathetically weak division.


So, if individual awards are in no way to be determinant of a player's contract demands, what makes McDavid worthy of such a lofty salary?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Now that Matthews has signed his new contract we know what value he attached to his Unrestricted free agency rate @ $13.25 mil and before he signed his 2nd deal Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year bridge deal which allows us to know at what value he set for his Restricted free agency rate @ $9 mil .

Your picture is of a fake tweet, and wasn't from when he signed anyway. Both of your claimed rates are wrong. As is how you're attempting to use them. There is no one "RFA rate" and "UFA rate" in the first place. Different RFA years will have different values, and different UFA years will have different values.

Could be, but again, when your boss says they’re coming back, his only other choice was to not take the job.

Shanahan wouldn't hire somebody that didn't have the same immediate view for the core in the first place.