Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

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But that goes to my other point I posted earlier in the thread and got crucified for it. Why the hell should Matthews be crucified for taking his value as being the best goal scorer in the league when other superstars take below their value as a superstar? It goes down to the point I made earlier, hockey players are just stupid when it comes to their own self worth and structuring their contracts. McDavid if he could go back probably would have taken a 5 year deal instead of an 8. But I think it’s completely unreasonable to expect Matthews to take less than McDavid based on a contract that was signed 6 years ago. It’s not Matthews fault they aren’t expiring around the same time.

I’m personally not crucifying him, I think the deal is fine.

My issue is trying to draw general principles from Connor McDavid because it’s a wildly unflattering comparison to Matthews. You are setting up the argument for success when you go there.
 
Have you seen McDavid Leon Draisaitl last 2 playoff seasons? You seem to blaming Edmonton's success and record on them when they have both been excellent in the playoffs.

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In 2021-22 McDavid had 2 PPG pace in the playoffs and he has 53 points combined in the last 2 playoff years.

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In 2021-22 He had 32 points in 16 games that is a 2 PPG pace in the playoffs. IN 22-23 playoffs he scored 13 goals in 12 playoff games > then a goal a game pace in the playoffs. He has 50 playoff points combined last 2 playoffs.

Name a Maple player that comes anywhere near that come playoff time?

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Auston Matthews in his entire Leafs career and 7 seasons has a combined 22 goals and 44 points where both Connor and Leon have more playoff points the last 2 seasons.

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Marner has 10 playoff goals total in 7 playoff season now making $10.9 mil vs Draisaitl who scored 13 playoff goals last year alone for $8.5 mil.

I already posted it. McDavid had 3 even strength goals & 8 even strength points this entire playoffs. So yes I’m blaming them for them not winning. If it wasn’t on the power play, they weren’t really doing much this year 5 on 5. And that was basically the difference. The oilers were getting dominated 5 on 5. They capitalize on the power play but even strength they weren’t as effective.
 
I didn't mean them specifically, I meant that as a general statement. Like Perrault always played for bad teams and Park never won a cup yet was an all-time great etc.

As far as Edmonton goes, they haven't been great in the playoffs correct? And isn't that what some people are arguing - that McDavid hasn't won the cup so if we don't hold that against him when judging him, why should we hold it against M&M?

The difference is, McDavid over his career has played much, much better in the playoffs than M&M, it's that simple and therefore the fact that EDM has never won the cup should not be held against him.
The corollary of this Imo is that winning a cup is multifaceted. Luck or a hot goalie can do it. Building a team that can win a few cups in a decade, that's a different story.
That said if we say Matthews is crippling our chances by taking so much money, the same should be said about mcdavid, for the record I don't know if you've said this, just putting it out there as it seems to flow with your points. Aside from Stamkos I cannot think of a star player that took less in fa.
I would say we are a better built team than the oilers. People say we are top heavy, but I think it's pretty close, mcdavid draisaitl rnh Kane and Hyman, but our defense is better and our tenders too.

Sorry if I hijacked your post Gary :cheers:

Discloser: this is a post pub post and ppp's are notoriously sloppy
 
One could argue that the most recent sample has slightly more relevance, but one cannot argue that everything else is irrelevant. There is more to Nylander's valuation than just raw goals in the most recent season.

One would hard pressed to argue against it. Slightly more relevance? I beg to differ, the most recent season is the most relevant by far.

Let me break it down to age/contract groups for the sake of the argument.

It's clearly used as the most relevant year when evaluating young players on ELC and RFA contracts - here the most recent seasons' (what you call sample) relevance compared to other years increase even more- it's the most relevant for prospects progressing the same with players sucking ass. Compare it to next to last year for fun.

You'll be surprised to find that this shit is even worse for older players! One bad season and they call you old and won't resign, kind of ignoring your ELC years - focusing on recent sample season once again baby. Do the same with next to last season. Who cares how good your season was two years ago? You're clearly too old this year and you're not getting younger.


Agree with the rest, All data needs to be evaluated both the most recent and all previous years, his packing order on Leafs (from a certain standpoint it doesn't matter how good Nylander is unless he is top 3 guy on this team) and so on.
 
So you're happy that the team is better than most of the other shitty teams we've had over the last 50 years. Nothing wrong with that, be happy.

I want to go deep in the playoffs myself and I'm disappointed that time and time again, this team underachieves in the playoffs.

We re-signed our best players, so what. Almost every team manages to re-sign their best players so what's the big deal? And while there's nothing wrong with talent, I'd rather have playoff success myself and if the players who manage to do that some day are less talented than our current crop of stars, I won't be bothered by that even one little bit.

Win.
I suppose I am pretty happy with this team yes or at least I am not convinced that not winning yet means you will never win, and I definitely do not believe that a trade for Playoff Success in exchange for any or all of our stars is available or possible. but my point was that describing e.g. Keefe continuing to grow as a coach or whatever as a sign of what a mess the team has become lacks perspective, as if barely 10 years ago ours was not the worst-run organisation in the league and seemed almost proud of that reputation. anyway
 
Fair point, I see where you’re coming from. For you it’s more about the reduction of performance coming from good regular seasons.
I think it makes sense to judge overall performance and I think playoff performance should carry more weight so yes, when playoff performance drops that has a substantial impact on the overall grade.

The corollary of this Imo is that winning a cup is multifaceted. Luck or a hot goalie can do it. Building a team that can win a few cups in a decade, that's a different story.
That said if we say Matthews is crippling our chances by taking so much money, the same should be said about mcdavid, for the record I don't know if you've said this, just putting it out there as it seems to flow with your points. Aside from Stamkos I cannot think of a star player that took less in fa.
I would say we are a better built team than the oilers. People say we are top heavy, but I think it's pretty close, mcdavid draisaitl rnh Kane and Hyman, but our defense is better and our tenders too.

Sorry if I hijacked your post Gary :cheers:

Discloser: this is a post pub post and ppp's are notoriously sloppy
Supposedly McDavid took less, maybe not that much less though I don't really know. I wouldn't say those contracts are crippling though, the Matthews contract isn't even that bad and IMO it's Marners contract that stands out like a sore thumb.

I like our team better than EDM too, but It's probably hard for me to be objective at this point. Sometimes I think all those playoff failures have fried my CPU.
 
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Have you seen McDavid Leon Draisaitl last 2 playoff seasons? You seem to blaming Edmonton's success and record on them when they have both been excellent in the playoffs.

View attachment 739672

In 2021-22 McDavid had 2 PPG pace in the playoffs and he has 53 points combined in the last 2 playoff years.

View attachment 739673

In 2021-22 He had 32 points in 16 games that is a 2 PPG pace in the playoffs. IN 22-23 playoffs he scored 13 goals in 12 playoff games > then a goal a game pace in the playoffs. He has 50 playoff points combined last 2 playoffs.

Name a Maple player that comes anywhere near that come playoff time?

View attachment 739676

Auston Matthews in his entire Leafs career and 7 seasons has a combined 22 goals and 44 points where both Connor and Leon have more playoff points the last 2 seasons.

View attachment 739680

Marner has 10 playoff goals total in 7 playoff season now making $10.9 mil vs Draisaitl who scored 13 playoff goals last year alone for $8.5 mil.

In 7 playoff years Leafs 2 top players can't outscore Edmonton 2 stars using only last 2 years stats.

You always say "Defense wins champions".

Then you compare our players to 2 people who don't know what their own end looks like.

There is a reason they can put up so many points and not do anything in the playoffs.
 
"other shitty teams" as if the one who set the franchise regular season points record is shitty? like I just don't think these opinions come from any basis in reality. Bolland had won a cup, scored the cup winning goal even. that trade reflected a preference for Winning, how come we didn't win? Kubina won a cup, Beauchemin too, weird that the teams they played on here were still so shitty.
 
You always say "Defense wins champions".

Then you compare our players to 2 people who don't know what their own end looks like.

There is a reason they can put up so many points and not do anything in the playoffs.

Well said.
 
Have a look at playoff production vs regular season production and I think you'll find that M&M drop off substantially in the playoffs in a way that McDavid and Draisaitl do not.
Its interesting, I took a look at their 3 year stats and McDavid/Draisaitl are much closer to - even above- their regular season in that sample.

It does include McDavid having a bigger pts/game drop off this year than any of the 4 though and the worst drop off in any individual season of that group during the lockout "Canadian Division" playoffs. He and Drai were lights out in the 2021-22 playoffs though and that boosted most of the numbers.
 
But that goes to my other point I posted earlier in the thread and got crucified for it. Why the hell should Matthews be crucified for taking his value as being the best goal scorer in the league when other superstars take below their value as a superstar? It goes down to the point I made earlier, hockey players are just stupid when it comes to their own self worth and structuring their contracts. McDavid if he could go back probably would have taken a 5 year deal instead of an 8. But I think it’s completely unreasonable to expect Matthews to take less than McDavid based on a contract that was signed 6 years ago. It’s not Matthews fault they aren’t expiring around the same time.
It goes to competitive advantage. If Matthews (and Marner) are paid fair value but every other team can get their star players for less than their fair value, it is a disadvantage for the Leafs in a cap league. Yes his contract is probably going to be fine, but that's still not quite good enough when comparable players are leaving more on the table and signing for longer
 
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I suppose I am pretty happy with this team yes or at least I am not convinced that not winning yet means you will never win, and I definitely do not believe that a trade for Playoff Success in exchange for any or all of our stars is available or possible. but my point was that describing e.g. Keefe continuing to grow as a coach or whatever as a sign of what a mess the team has become lacks perspective, as if barely 10 years ago ours was not the worst-run organisation in the league and seemed almost proud of that reputation. anyway
I'm not convinced either, but I do worry that that might be the case. Dont know if you remember but there's a poster here who pointed to the way we played in JT's return to Long Island and said that that game showed that this team doesn't have what it takes. I have to say I think back to that from time to time and often think that he's probably right. When the going gets tough, this team has folded so often and while I'll optimistically leave the door open and say maybe this team can win, it's hard to see it happening at this point and I fear that guy had it right all along. Do you remember that game? It was incredibly embarrassing the way we played after all the hullabaloo surrounding JT's signing. It was a playoff atmosphere and the kind of game where you show JT what this team is all about, make him confident that taking all the hate from NYI fans was worth it, that this is a special team that he's now a part of. Instead we played like a team that has no spine and the stink of that performance has never really gone away.

The Keefe comment was off the cuff so don't take it that seriously but while I wouldn't say it's a sign or WE (the playoff losses are enough of a sign IMO) I will say that if it was up to me, he'd be fired if only for the moronic way he's handled Nylander. He should have never been taken off PP1 and he should have gotten more ice time in the playoffs and it's not even that it's necessarily that costly a mistake, it's that it's such an obvious mistake that a NHL coach should never make. JMHO.
 
Its interesting, I took a look at their 3 year stats and McDavid/Draisaitl are much closer to - even above- their regular season in that sample.

It does include McDavid having a bigger pts/game drop off this year than any of the 4 though and the worst drop off in any individual season of that group during the lockout "Canadian Division" playoffs. He and Drai were lights out in the 2021-22 playoffs though and that boosted most of the numbers.
I'm too lazy to do the math but someone else did not long ago for a few top players and the drop-off for M&M was huge compared to the others. Draisaitl, I believe his production has even gone up in the playoffs and not just up a little bit either. I wish we had a player like that, it's so frustrating to keep having good regular seasons and then getting out-goalied year after no matter what goalies we face.
 
But that goes to my other point I posted earlier in the thread and got crucified for it. Why the hell should Matthews be crucified for taking his value as being the best goal scorer in the league when other superstars take below their value as a superstar? It goes down to the point I made earlier, hockey players are just stupid when it comes to their own self worth and structuring their contracts. McDavid if he could go back probably would have taken a 5 year deal instead of an 8. But I think it’s completely unreasonable to expect Matthews to take less than McDavid based on a contract that was signed 6 years ago. It’s not Matthews fault they aren’t expiring around the same time.

My personal belief is Matthews contract is fine and acceptable as is. Can’t speak for others but you are doing Matthews no favour when referencing McDavid. Not to say the gap can’t be closed in the future or that he won’t win a cup or steal some awards from him. Right now it’s extremely unflattering.
 
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I'm too lazy to do the math but someone else did not long ago for a few top players and the drop-off for M&M was huge compared to the others. Draisaitl, I believe his production has even gone up in the playoffs and not just up a little bit either. I wish we had a player like that, it's so frustrating to keep having good regular seasons and then getting out-goalied year after no matter what goalies we face.

Drai is also basically an even player at 5v5 during the playoffs (43 GF, 42 GA in the last 3 years), his defensive game is absolutely atrocious and there is a reason those two high-scoring players can't win.
 
I'm too lazy to do the math but someone else did not long ago for a few top players and the drop-off for M&M was huge compared to the others. Draisaitl, I believe his production has even gone up in the playoffs and not just up a little bit either. I wish we had a player like that, it's so frustrating to keep having good regular seasons and then getting out-goalied year after no matter what goalies we face.
I ran the numbers quick, so youre welcome to double check, but it seemed like Draisaitl was more consistent than McDavid. Even with the drop this year and heavy PP production, I thought McDavid's playoffs was fine this year and its tough to fault that type of production either way.

The big difference(s) when i see Matthews and Marners playoff numbers is they dont have that huge year, like Draistl and McDavid last year, and they don't get in a lot of high scoring games/series. You could say they also drive that though in the fact they dont take many risks or cheat much for offense.
 
You always say "Defense wins champions".

Then you compare our players to 2 people who don't know what their own end looks like.

There is a reason they can put up so many points and not do anything in the playoffs.

Defense wins championships is a great principle to have because most teams trying to win one don’t have a McDavid or Draisaitl - or Matthews and Marner to consistently win the high event, high scoring game.

Edmonton’s star players are pretty bad defensively but all in all their problems seem to be more easy to fix than if your big guns always go cold. We’ll see though.
 
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You always say "Defense wins champions".

Then you compare our players to 2 people who don't know what their own end looks like.

There is a reason they can put up so many points and not do anything in the playoffs.
lol I'll agree with you on this one notbiased.

If Edmonton's going anywhere Draisaitl has to fix that god awful defensive game of his.

Edit: Draisailt's defensive performance against Colorado was an all-time worst defensive series I've seen with a center. I get it that his ankle was trashed at the time but holy man that was comical. This also involved a lot of flip flopping with him between center and wing too however
 
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lol I'll agree with you on this one notbiased.

If Edmonton's going anywhere Draisaitl has to fix that god awful defensive game of his.
Would you rather have 29 and 97 or 16 and 34 on your playoff roster ? Only a matter of time before McDavid wins one IMO.
 
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Last time I checked, 1 PPG = 1 5v5 goal. WTF cares how they score. If it is so easy why aren't our f***ers scoring on the PP ?? Oh yeah, I forgot we do not get PPs because the league/refs are out to get us. OK.

The value of 5 on 5 production, and goals was used earlier in the McDavid and Matthews era to look for areas where Matthews held the upper hand while losing the raw points race. If the PP opportunities balanced out, Babcock utilized him more, PP%'s fell into place, etc. it would significantly close the gap between two very similar players... or so the theory went.
 
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Defense wins championships is a great principle to have because most teams trying to win one don’t have a McDavid or Draisaitl - or Matthews and Marner to consistently win the high event, high scoring game.

Edmonton’s star players are pretty bad defensively but all in all their problems seem to be more easy to fix than if your big guns always go cold. We’ll see though.
It's also the way they're coached.

I swear McDavid and Drai are directly instructed to play the way they do in their own end. McDavid's hockey IQ alone should make him a good defensive player.

Would you rather have 29 and 97 or 16 and 34 on your playoff roster ? Only a matter of time before McDavid wins one IMO.
97 and 29 only because shifting Drai to the wing is a way easier fix.
 
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The value of 5 on 5 production, and goals was used earlier in the McDavid and Matthews era to look for areas where Matthews held the upper hand while losing the raw points race. If the PP opportunities balanced out, Babcock utilized him more, PP%'s fell into place, etc. it would significantly close the gap between two very similar players... or so the theory went.
Truth is, McDavid has worked on his goal scoring to the point where he won the Rocket and surpassed Matty's 60 goals. Now we wait to see if Matty has another 50-60 goal season in him because you can bet McDavid might hit 70 next year.
 
The problem is not hypocrisy. You are just not registering the magnitude of McDavid’s statistical dominance in the regular season even if he was a complete dog at defense and a total playoff bust.

McDavid’s numbers cannot be understated. He’s been in the league one more season than Matthews and has 850 career points to 542. That’s a 300 point difference in a 7-8 year career representing 3x additional 100 point seasons. Go find a player Matthews has a 300 point lead on over this time and that’s the difference between these two players.

You can’t use McDavid to establish some whataboutism here.

Auston Matthews is one of the few (I count 2 others) in recent memory that lead the entire league in goals in his first 7 years

Despite playing in a lower scoring league with multiple injuries, pp2 and 19 min a night he is top 10 in
Goals by 25. Fasted to 300 and is scoring at an almost (2 back) identical pace as Alex ovechkin at 25 with 6 more games.

Matthews is a top 10 goal scorer in history at this time in his career and the second best since the best all time.

Matthews has been an incredibly dominant player. Who also is one of the first C who has led the league in blocked shots as a forward.
 
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Auston Matthews is one of the few (I count 2 others) in recent memory that lead the entire league in goals in his first 7 years

Despite playing in a lower scoring league with multiple injuries, pp2 and 19 min a night he is top 10 in
Goals by 25. Fasted to 300 and is scoring at an almost (2 back) identical pace as Alex ovechkin at 25 with 6 more games.

Matthews is a top 10 goal scorer in history at this time in his career and the second best since the best all time.

Matthews has been an incredibly dominant player. Who also is one of the first C who has led the league in blocked shots as a forward.
Yup Matty is one of the best goal scorers to play the game but McDavid has passed him by IMO. Let's see if this past year for Matty was an anomaly or he reverts back to the 50+ goal scorer he has been. My guess is McDavid puts up 50+ g and 90+ assists for the next few years if he remains healthy. This guy may not have reached his ceiling and that is one scary thought. As much as I hate the Oil for stealing 99 and lucking into 97, it would not piss me off to see 97 hoist the SC.
 

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