Leafs not drafting well ?

[Ricky Bobby]

Other than Sandin, who seems to be a Dubas-influenced pick, I'm not sure how big Dubas' role was in 2018. He took over very late in the game so they couldn't really change gears to much. At most his philosophy might have influenced a few close calls.

4 of the top 5 picks the Leafs made in 2018 were from the OHL in Sandin, SDA, During and Hallowell.

Sandin & Hallowell both played for the Sault.

His hands were all over that draft.

 

[Menzinger]

4 of the top 5 picks the Leafs made in 2018 were from the OHL in Sandin, SDA, During and Hallowell.

Sandin & Hallowell both played for the Sault.

His hands were all over that draft.

I suspect with that draft he opted to go with players he/his early scout hires knew based on past experiences since they didn't have time to build their own draft lists properly from scratch. We then see a noticible different strategy the next couple drafts especially with the mid and late round picks.

The 2018 probably the least interesting of his 3 drafts

 

[AcerComputer]

Drafting small guys like Robertson and Sandin will limit team performance .. but even worse we did not draft FAST guys .. we drafted small men with SKILL .. not small men with SPEED .. Dubie fails to understand da importance of SPEED in playoff hockey .. we need to draft guys first and foremost who have SPEED .. then SIZE .. and then SKILL .. Dubie as a non player just does not get it .. da Leafs have too many skilled players who lack speed and size

We took Korshakov over DiBrincat who had high skill, a shot, goof speed, only knock was his size. And It's not revisionist history. Everyone knew Dibrincat was the guy to take, Dangle even made a video about it after day 1 of the draft. I certain had Dubas been the GM I think we take the smaller high skilled player. Sandin is still a great value pick for a late first. And Robertson hopefully makes up for where we went wrong in the 2016 draft.

 

[socko]

All the draft picks have been traded away. Problem fixed by Boy Wonder. Super Genius.

 

[ToneDog]

All the draft picks have been traded away. Problem fixed by Boy Wonder. Super Genius.

Thank God we only have watch him draft 3 players that probably never make it to the NHL. Then again he might trade down and double the number that never make it

 

[Dough72]

OT but kind of curious to see him skate. My guess he can't take a slap shot without falling down.

 

[seanlinden]

The challenge with evaluating drafting skill, is that it generally takes 3-4 years, and often in that time, personnel have changed.

To me, the "criteria" for "drafting well" are twofold.

1. In the 1st round, are you consistently "hitting" on your first round picks (and to a lesser extent, early 2nds), and if you don't hit on a given year, are you "missing"? or is it just a weak "range" that you're in?

To evaluate this, you've gotta look at the Liljegren, Matthews, Korshkov, Marner, Dermott, and Nylander picks.

Liljegren: So far hasn't shown anything. The jury may still be out, but at 17th Overall, it does appear that the Leafs missed some pretty good players in the form of Josh Norris, Robert Thomas, Filip Chytil, and Kailer Yamamoto who were all drafted 19-22.

Matthews: No brainer pick, so points for not overthinking it I guess?

Korshkov: Obviously he hasn't given the Leafs anything... as the 1st pick of the 2nd round, I can't help but feel disappointing with Jordan Kyrou, Alex Debrincat, Samuel Girard, Carter Hart, Ryan Lindgren, Filip Hronek, Dillon Dube all also going in the 2nd round.

Marner: Somewhat of an easier pick (not on the same level of Matthews), but I think the Leafs do deserve some credit for not overthinking it, and getting a player that is at worst, amongst the group of Aho, Rantanen, Barzal who would all arguably be the 3rd best player in the draft class.

Dermott: I'd rate this pick as "good"... they got a bonafide NHL player, but I'd stop short of excellent, given the talent that was available in the 2nd round that year (Aho 35, Carlo 37, Cernak 43)

Nylander: I think the Leafs deserve a huge amount of credit for this pick. Yes, it's probably a toss-up between him and Ehlers, but the contribution level really drops off after those 2.

Overall, In the top of the draft, you've gotta give the Leafs credit, they're not making mistakes (such as Boston with Zobril/Debrusk/Sensyshyn, followed immediately by Barzal/Connor/Chabot), and have certainly hit on 4 of the 6 picks over those 4 seasons; but they're also not really being "challenged". 3 of the picks they hit on were in the top 10. To be considered "excellent", I'd want to see more consistency in "hitting" outside of the top 10.

2. In the later rounds, are you regularly getting career-NHL players.
By career-NHLers, I think you have to look at guys who last in the NHL more than a year or two.
In this criteria, there seems to be a noticable drop in what the Leafs have gotten over the last few years.... going back to 2011:

2011: Josh Leivo
2012: Connor Brown
2013: Andreas Johnsson, Carter Verhaghe
2014: Pierre Engvall
2015: None
2016: Grundstrom, MAYBE Brooks
2017: Seemingly none

I wouldn't consider the above list impressive... especially since the best guys (Brown, Johnson, Verhaghe) were all 8 years ago now.

Overall, the Leafs deserve credit for not screwing up or botching high picks, but they really haven't done much to write home about beyond that. Even if you look further back at the 1st round, its a similar story. Flop on Gauthier (21st), hit on Rielly (5th), Flop on Biggs (22), Flop on Percy (25), hit on Kadri (7), hit on Schenn, sort of (5th).

I'm don't believe you can say "they draft well", but I also wouldn't say they draft poorly. If anything, they draft poorly considering the resources they have.

 

[Stigma]

I think you are being a bit tongue and cheek about Duby....but I really don't think you're that far off in your opinion of what he is trying to do. He has small man syndrome to some extent where he would prefer a small guy with the same skill set that a big guy has. Why? Well, that would require couch time for him to spill it all out, but I think he really believes the system is unfair towards the diminutive crowd and wants to prove they are capable and in some cases preferable to big players.

He traded Mason Marchment for a tiny winger (Malgin) who had already proven he can't play in the NHL and be successful. Think about that...he basically gave away a kid who was the ONLY one with some size and grit for a tiny dancer....to top it off..Mason is playing in the NHL and we await the annual migration of Malgin after his european season is over so he can play on the black aces or the Marlies....wow...just wow.

I have a bad feeling that what you wrote is true. To be fair, it's just speculation, but if what we think is true, we cannot have a person with hang-ups and that level of insecurity running a hockey team. It's not a platform to be progressive and fair....just make a goddamn good team!

Also, as others have mentioned, he needs to mix trade-ups with trade-downs. I know, statistically, the trade down makes more sense, but as Stephen mentioned, there's a laziness inherent in that method. You're just picking who is on your sheet and available after the trade down. Make an attempt to trade up once in a while! Target someone special. I've seen some good players go 1 or 2 picks before the Leafs. Just because the Biggs trade-up didn't work, doesn't mean we never do it again.

 

[Stigma]

I'm not a Hunter fan, but I think there's some exaggeration happening about his drafting skills. 2015 was "okay", 2017 completely sucked, but 2016 was actually quite good. Korshkov was a mistake, but the other picks were good. Here:

2016: Matthews, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Woll, James Greenway, Brooks, Middleton, Bobylev, Walker, Mattinen, Chebykin.

Matthews - no-brainers NHLer
Korshkov - Looking like a 4th liner - NHL
Grundstrom - Playing full seasons now. NHLer
Woll - I don't love him, but he may, one day, make the NHL. He's not done yet.
Brooks - Tweener. Sort of an NHLer. Looks promising.
Middleton - He actually played a few games in the NHL this year! He may have a future. We'll see.

So that's 5 guys who have played an NHL game. That's actually really good. If you put it all together, I'd say Hunter is "average".

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

He picked some nice talent in the later rounds though -- Connor Brown and Carter Verhaeghe were both picked under his guidance.

Since Dubas has taken over though, I haven't seen a single player he has drafted that has made any type of impact yet, especially any player taken outside of Round 1 but in fairness, I don't think I've seen any player drafted outside Round 1 from 2018 onwards be very impactful for any team yet.

I've seen tons of European forwards drafted under Kyle's leadership though - Fins to be exact.

Most of Dubas' draft picks are still teenagers or 20 yrs old. Considering we haven't been drafting high, the likelihood of any of his prospects showing an NHL impact is next to nothing. Like you said players drafted after our picks haven't shown up yet either. Usually the only players that might make the NHL that early are top 5 picks but even then, you look at guys like Lafreniere, Hughes, Kakko etc, they haven't exactly hit the ground running either. Sandin and Robertson have drawn into some NHL games early on though which is a good sign considering they were a late 1st and late 2nd round picks.

Sandin, Robertson, Amirov, Niemela all look to be pretty well sure things to make the NHL.

Hirvonen, Kral, Abruzzese, Abramov, Kokkonen, Koster, SDA, Miettinen, Holmberg all have a decent shot at playing in the NHL in a few years.

Villeneuve, Ovchinnikov, Rindell are interesting prospects with an outside shot as well. I have a feeling Tverberg is going to be a sleeper pick in a few years.

Thats a pretty decent Haul in the last few years and these players are all showing some positive progression. Comparing that to previous drafts under Lou/Hunter, Nonis/Morrison, Burke/Morrison, I like the current prospect pool better. My only issue is that it would be nice to have some power forwards in the system and some bigger Dmen like a Slavin/Pesce. Goaltending is our weak point in the system. Scott, Woll and Akhtyamov all have size and skill but all 3 don't have a high chance of being NHL starters. Would be nice if we could finally get a Vasi, Hart, Knight kind of goalie prospect in the pool.

 

[bentharbs]

Just look at the rest of the NHL from 2018. Too early to tell. Next.

 

[Amadeus]

Most of Dubas' draft picks are still teenagers or 20 yrs old. Considering we haven't been drafting high, the likelihood of any of his prospects showing an NHL impact is next to nothing. Like you said players drafted after our picks haven't shown up yet either. Usually the only players that might make the NHL that early are top 5 picks but even then, you look at guys like Lafreniere, Hughes, Kakko etc, they haven't exactly hit the ground running either. Sandin and Robertson have drawn into some NHL games early on though which is a good sign considering they were a late 1st and late 2nd round picks.

Sandin, Robertson, Amirov, Niemela all look to be pretty well sure things to make the NHL.

Hirvonen, Kral, Abruzzese, Abramov, Kokkonen, Koster, SDA, Miettinen, Holmberg all have a decent shot at playing in the NHL in a few years.

Villeneuve, Ovchinnikov, Rindell are interesting prospects with an outside shot as well. I have a feeling Tverberg is going to be a sleeper pick in a few years.

Thats a pretty decent Haul in the last few years and these players are all showing some positive progression. Comparing that to previous drafts under Lou/Hunter, Nonis/Morrison, Burke/Morrison, I like the current prospect pool better. My only issue is that it would be nice to have some power forwards in the system and some bigger Dmen like a Slavin/Pesce. Goaltending is our weak point in the system. Scott, Woll and Akhtyamov all have size and skill but all 3 don't have a high chance of being NHL starters. Would be nice if we could finally get a Vasi, Hart, Knight kind of goalie prospect in the pool.

Yeah, considering he took over from 2018, I don't think we'll see how the drafts were until 2023 to be exact.

 

[tronoleaf]

Which years were Dubas and which were Lou ?

18, 19, and 20 is Dubas, correct? His first draft (18) looks bad outside of Sandin.

 

[Stigma]

18, 19, and 20 is Dubas, correct? His first draft (18) looks bad outside of Sandin.

I seem to recall a rumour about Dubas ripping up the original 2018 draft list and him implementing his own list at the very last minute. Not sure if true....it does added to the Dubas mystique though. LOL

 

[notbias]

18, 19, and 20 is Dubas, correct? His first draft (18) looks bad outside of Sandin.

SDA, Holmberg and Kral all have a chance to see NHL action (maybe Hollowell/Durzi too), overall I think it was a fine draft, but potentially the worst of his 3.

2019 looks great to me and in 2020 I like a lot of the picks.

 

[ottomaddox]

All the draft picks have been traded away. Problem fixed by Boy Wonder. Super Genius.

It is pretty funny when you consider that Shanny came in with a *new* vision, hired Kyle to build that vision, and now we are back to where we started:

Cap issues, and no draft picks.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

We took Korshakov over DiBrincat who had high skill, a shot, goof speed, only knock was his size. And It's not revisionist history. Everyone knew Dibrincat was the guy to take, Dangle even made a video about it after day 1 of the draft. I certain had Dubas been the GM I think we take the smaller high skilled player. Sandin is still a great value pick for a late first. And Robertson hopefully makes up for where we went wrong in the 2016 draft.

I like Sandin and Robertson too but we have to face facts both guys are well below average NHL speed .. and they are both small men .. but they both have great core power and hockey IQ .. good picks and who knows how they develop but until they reach NHL straight line speed levels they are gonna have a tough go in NHL playoff hockey .. DCat is Mitch lite but stronger and with a much better shot .. looking back sure it was a bad pick but we aren't gonna win playoff hockey with more Mitch lite type players .. we already have too many of those types

 

[Mess]

Here is the pre-summary carnage of Leafs return from future drafts of 2021 & 2022.

2021
1st - Traded to Columbus for Nick Foligno (UFA)
3rd -Traded to Los Angeles for Kyle Clifford - 2021 conditional 3rd round pick (originally second round if Clifford re-signs with Maple Leafs)
4th - Trade to San Jose - Stefan Noesen in a 3-team trade with Blue Jackets, Maple Leafs for salary retention on Nick Foligno.
7th - Traded to Boston - for 2020 seventh round pick (#212-Ryan Tverberg).

2022
3rd - Traded to Calgary for David Rittich - goalie (UFA).
4th - Traded to Columbus for Nick Foligno - forward (UFA).
5th - Traded to Anaheim for Ben Hutton- defense (UFA).
6th - Traded to Columbus for • Riley Nash - forward (UFA).

Dubas went All-in and Lost in round #1 at the expense of the 2021 and 2022 entry drafts.

I guess one way you solve questionable drafting is by not drafting at all, but rather dealing away futures for the present.

Leafs have only 3 picks in 2021 (2nd, 5th and 6th) and 3 picks in 2022 (1st, 2nd and 7th) that have survived the purge presently. The lack of picks is going to result in Leafs prospect pool falling to the near bottom of the league if you're not making many selections.

PS. Remember the good old days when Leafs traded Roman Polak & Nick Spaling to San Jose in exchange for two second-round picks, and used those manufactured picks on TDL rentals of Tomas Plekanec or Brian Boyle and the fan base screamed bloody murder for wasting draft picks.

 

[OptimusReim]

What do the Leafs do well?

Outside of bending Dubas over at the negotiation table?

 

[AcerComputer]

What do the Leafs do well?

Outside of bending Dubas over at the negotiation table?

At least Marner and Matthews were nice enough to bring the lube.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

What do the Leafs do well?

Outside of bending Dubas over at the negotiation table?

They’re really good at sucking. What other sports franchise has a 50+ year playoff drought and a 17 year streak of no playoff series wins?

 

[exporta]

View attachment 451559
Traded Rask.
Missed Varlamov.

Marchand went 73rd

Claude Giroux sticks out more than Varlamov to me.

That said, you could do the same exercise with most players.

8 teams after the Leafs passed on Giroux, and 9 passed on Varlamov. Chances are Washington and Philly would have too if they held the 13th pick.

Almost (could possibly be every team) passed on Marchand twice. These revisionist drafts dont really tell the full picture. That said, JFJ, Nonis and Burke had some awful drafts.

I was pissed when we traded the Konecny pick, living in Ottawa at the time I was pumped he was on the board before we moved the pick.

 

[exporta]

It's going to be really hard to judge Dubas on drafting. He was the guy in charge starting with the 2018 draft. Before that was almost all Hunter, with the known exception of Dubas pushing for Marner (which was a good pick).

2018 seems pretty pedestrian. Sandin should be maing an impact this coming year, as a high 1st rounder. Flilip Karl might be a sleeper from round 5.

It's still early to know how well the 2019 draft went, but it looks good. No 1st rounder (Muzzin trade) but 4 players taken in rounds 2-4 (Robertson, Kokkonen, Abramov, Abruzzes) could end up making the NHL. That's a pretty successful draft.

2020 was a pandemic-caused guessing game. Dubas went after players from leagues that actually played, hoping that meant their progress wouldn't be stalled. We still don't know if this strategy worked out yet.

Dubas clearly prioritizes skill in the draft, believing that things like size and leadership can be added with trades and free agency.

Is there any evidence that Dubas was pushing Marner and Hunter wasnt? No one on the Leafs staff knew Marner more than Hunter, and have to believe they had him #3 on their board.

 

[exporta]

People do realize that Dubas is almost 40 years old right?

Hey now! Dubas is 2 months younger than I and I don't think (4 years) is close to 40. Firmly in our mid 30's!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

4 of the top 5 picks the Leafs made in 2018 were from the OHL in Sandin, SDA, During and Hallowell.

Sandin & Hallowell both played for the Sault.

His hands were all over that draft.

As pointed out by others, a lot of those guys were familiar to our scouting staff because Dubas had 3 weeks with the board.

Sandin was actually a Bergman target long before he was a SSM target. We would have picked him even if he was still playing in Rogle.

Durzi was invited to Leafs training camp.

Hollowell was invited to Leafs training camp and was from SSM.

Stotts was specifically targeted by our WHL scouts. Apparently they all had the consensus he would work out but obviously he did not.

No idea on the others but I imagine they fall under the same category. Kral was one of the best Czech league defenders last year so he is doing pretty well. Holmberg was SHL playoff MVP this past year, which is impressive given he is 22 years old. So it is not like 2017 where guys were not even good enough for an ELC outside of Liljegren and Scott.