Leafs not drafting well ?

[ACC1224]

Is there any evidence that Dubas was pushing Marner and Hunter wasnt? No one on the Leafs staff knew Marner more than Hunter, and have to believe they had him #3 on their board.

My understanding was they had him as a 2a/2b with Eichel but they also knew they wouldn't have to choose between the two.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I'm not a Hunter fan, but I think there's some exaggeration happening about his drafting skills. 2015 was "okay", 2017 completely sucked, but 2016 was actually quite good. Korshkov was a mistake, but the other picks were good. Here:

2016: Matthews, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Woll, James Greenway, Brooks, Middleton, Bobylev, Walker, Mattinen, Chebykin.

Matthews - no-brainers NHLer
Korshkov - Looking like a 4th liner - NHL
Grundstrom - Playing full seasons now. NHLer
Woll - I don't love him, but he may, one day, make the NHL. He's not done yet.
Brooks - Tweener. Sort of an NHLer. Looks promising.
Middleton - He actually played a few games in the NHL this year! He may have a future. We'll see.

So that's 5 guys who have played an NHL game. That's actually really good. If you put it all together, I'd say Hunter is "average".

Rating Hunter as even average is being overly generous.

Outside of top picks he produced a few low end 3rd liners/so-so 4th liners and Dermott is his legacy and that was with an extra 1st rounder in 2015 & the first pick of the 2nd round in 2016 + some other extra picks. He missed horribly on numerous OHLers which should have been his main strength.

2015: Leafs had the 24th overall pick and traded down and all we have to show for it is Dermott. The 24th overall was used on OHLer Travis Konency who even a fair number of fans of this message board were advocating for. 25th overall was Roslovic. At 34 the Leafs took Dermott but 35 was used on Aho and 37 was used on Brandon Carlo.

Korshov: He went off the board and took a slow skating Korshov who had already been passed over in the draft at 31. That was instead of taking OHLers Kyrou (35) & DeBrincat (39 and he played in the same division as the Knights).

Middleton: Colorado used 15 Dmen last year due to all their injuries so him getting 3 games is more a reflection of him having a pulse than actually deserving to be in the NHL. If he's a success then should Stuart Percy playing a few games for us once upon a time also be considered a successful draft pick?

Liljegren: went 17th overall and it's still too early to fully judge him but I would definitely rather have Josh Norris (19) or former London Knight Robert Thomas (20). His 2nd pick in the draft was used on Rasanen who wasn't even able to stick in the AHL or KHL.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

As pointed out by others, a lot of those guys were familiar to our scouting staff because Dubas had 3 weeks with the board.

Sandin was actually a Bergman target long before he was a SSM target. We would have picked him even if he was still playing in Rogle.

Durzi was invited to Leafs training camp.

Hollowell was invited to Leafs training camp and was from SSM.

Stotts was specifically targeted by our WHL scouts. Apparently they all had the consensus he would work out but obviously he did not.

No idea on the others but I imagine they fall under the same category. Kral was one of the best Czech league defenders last year so he is doing pretty well. Holmberg was SHL playoff MVP this past year, which is impressive given he is 22 years old. So it is not like 2017 where guys were not even good enough for an ELC outside of Liljegren and Scott.

Of course our scouting staff was familiar with players that we ended up taking.

We'll never know the true extent to which Dubas influenced the first draft but I'm of the opinion because Dubas did only have 3 weeks that's why he went OHL heavy using 4 of the first 5 picks in his first draft including guys who'd been invited to the Leafs camp and he also influenced the type of players we selected.

Sandin might have been followed by Bergman but it's naive to think that Dubas didn't have a close eye on him as well as Hollowell well they played for the Sault. As you stated Durzi and Hollowell had been to Leafs camp but that in no way indicates Hunter would have taken them.

Consider also the Leafs didn't draft a single bigger player in the 2018 draft (same as the next two drafts under Dubas). Completely different approach than we saw under Hunter.

Consider also in 2018, the Leafs took 4 Dmen in Sandin, Durzi, Hollowell or Kral none of whom are are big or physical. The drafting of these types is a 180 from how Hunter drafted - Hunter tooks giants like Nielsen, Middleton, Desrocher, Gordev, Rasanen.

For the record, I believe without a doubt our drafting under Dubas has substantially improved.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hey now! Dubas is 2 months younger than I and I don't think (4 years) is close to 40. Firmly in our mid 30's!

I thought he was the same age as Spezza. Should have double-checked.

Still, I don't think there are too many mid-30's Fortnite addicts out there.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Of course our scouting staff was familiar with players that we ended up taking.

We'll never know the true extent to which Dubas influenced the first draft but I'm of the opinion because Dubas did only have 3 weeks that's why he went OHL heavy using 4 of the first 5 picks in his first draft including guys who'd been invited to the Leafs camp and he also influenced the type of players we selected.

Sandin might have been followed by Bergman but it's naive to think that Dubas didn't have a close eye on him as well as Hollowell well they played for the Sault. As you stated Durzi and Hollowell had been to Leafs camp but that in no way indicates Hunter would have taken them.

Consider also the Leafs didn't draft a single bigger player in the 2018 draft (same as the next two drafts under Dubas). Completely different approach than we saw under Hunter.

Consider also in 2018, the Leafs took 4 Dmen in Sandin, Durzi, Hollowell or Kral none of whom are are big or physical. The drafting of these types is a 180 from how Hunter drafted - Hunter tooks giants like Nielsen, Middleton, Desrocher, Gordev, Rasanen.

For the record, I believe without a doubt our drafting under Dubas has substantially improved.

I guess the point that was being made was that it really was not "Dubas (or more so Lilley)" as much as "Dubas trusting all of his scouts" in 2018. Seemed like picked a lot of guys that his scouts wanted and knew, or he knew from either development camp/his connections, but what else can you do when you only have 3 weeks with a board. His scouts have been working all year so he probably just told them he wanted guys with skill and IQ and that was it.

I also would say the Leafs did a decent job with size in 2020. There are not too many 18 year olds who are 6'3", 220 lbs and have the other things you need out of a prospect. Guys grow into their bodies.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Good points .. no one enjoys that circle back and reload plan to always control puck .. it is a risky strategy which often leads to puck turnovers in your own end which you can't recover from .. same as skate around perimeter of net and not attack da net another waste of time move .. i think we do all of those things on ice because we have a ton of players with great edges and hand skill and they can make those plays work most of time .. but in playoff hockey it does not work .. everyone fore checks and back checks at full speed in units of 5 so capitalizing on guys who do not do that full out in regular season does not occur .. you need that extra gear in playoff hockey to make defenders nervous and errors will occur with blow byes and forechecking .. people do not understand this on here but reason why Kerfoot and Willy were successful in playoffs is they both have blow bye speed and forced defensive errors .. Matty got doubled by a defender and a centre (usually Weber and Danault) but even he needs to gain more speed as Danault should not be able to neutralize him

Perfect summary right here. Your posts should get way more likes... but people are hung up on "da".

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I think Dubas' overall philosophy is mainly boom-or-bust, although admittedly it mostly ends up being small and skilled.

Given how important good ELC/bridge players are, might need to revisit the philosophy a bit.

I still like prioritizing skating and hockey IQ.

Does heart and desire enter into it anywhere?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Drafting small guys like Robertson and Sandin will limit team performance .. but even worse we did not draft FAST guys .. we drafted small men with SKILL .. not small men with SPEED .. Dubie fails to understand da importance of SPEED in playoff hockey .. we need to draft guys first and foremost who have SPEED .. then SIZE .. and then SKILL .. Dubie as a non player just does not get it .. da Leafs have too many skilled players who lack speed and size

Those are the wrong picks to highlight your grievances with.

With where Sandin (29th) & Robertson (53rd) were picked they are looking like absolute steals with how they're trending and are valuable assets.

At the end of the day people can pick on their flaws but having Sandin & Robertson who are widely considered top 30 already drafted prospects league wide is a reflection that our scouting department is doing something right in adding assets to the organization.

 

[Menzinger]

I'm not a Hunter fan, but I think there's some exaggeration happening about his drafting skills. 2015 was "okay", 2017 completely sucked, but 2016 was actually quite good. Korshkov was a mistake, but the other picks were good. Here:

2016: Matthews, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Woll, James Greenway, Brooks, Middleton, Bobylev, Walker, Mattinen, Chebykin.

Matthews - no-brainers NHLer
Korshkov - Looking like a 4th liner - NHL
Grundstrom - Playing full seasons now. NHLer
Woll - I don't love him, but he may, one day, make the NHL. He's not done yet.
Brooks - Tweener. Sort of an NHLer. Looks promising.
Middleton - He actually played a few games in the NHL this year! He may have a future. We'll see.

So that's 5 guys who have played an NHL game. That's actually really good. If you put it all together, I'd say Hunter is "average".

Playing a couple games isn't really saying much though. Based on historical norms the usual metric is about 200 career games played (about 2.5 seasons) for a guy to be considered an NHLer. Imo the Hunter years don't have a lot of great examples of guys who will likely reach that benchmark with likely only Dermott and Grundstrom being his main successes outside of the top 10 area of the 1st (hoping Liljegren soon changes that)

So while not every pick was a complete flop,.I don't think the Leafs will have many pieces from those years, which imo is made worse considering they were a top 5 selection in 2/3 of those years

 

[Mess]

Playing a couple games isn't really saying much though. Based on historical norms the usual metric is about 200 career games played (about 2.5 seasons) for a guy to be considered an NHLer. Imo the Hunter years don't have a lot of great examples of guys who will likely reach that benchmark with likely only Dermott and Grundstrom being his main successes outside of the top 10 area of the 1st (hoping Liljegren soon changes that)

So while not every pick was a complete flop,.I don't think the Leafs will have many pieces from those years, which imo is made worse considering they were a top 5 selection in 2/3 of those years

That is why I say all prospects are suspects until proven otherwise.

Hunter was getting a lot of early praise for his selections, and carried a big reputation as some kind of scouting savant, but now as time passes we're starting to see and feel the impact of those years where he mainly came up empty and often.

 

[Stigma]

Rating Hunter as even average is being overly generous.

Outside of top picks he produced a few low end 3rd liners/so-so 4th liners and Dermott is his legacy and that was with an extra 1st rounder in 2015 & the first pick of the 2nd round in 2016 + some other extra picks. He missed horribly on numerous OHLers which should have been his main strength.

2015: Leafs had the 24th overall pick and traded down and all we have to show for it is Dermott. The 24th overall was used on OHLer Travis Konency who even a fair number of fans of this message board were advocating for. 25th overall was Roslovic. At 34 the Leafs took Dermott but 35 was used on Aho and 37 was used on Brandon Carlo.

Korshov: He went off the board and took a slow skating Korshov who had already been passed over in the draft at 31. That was instead of taking OHLers Kyrou (35) & DeBrincat (39 and he played in the same division as the Knights).

Middleton: Colorado used 15 Dmen last year due to all their injuries so him getting 3 games is more a reflection of him having a pulse than actually deserving to be in the NHL. If he's a success then should Stuart Percy playing a few games for us once upon a time also be considered a successful draft pick?

Liljegren: went 17th overall and it's still too early to fully judge him but I would definitely rather have Josh Norris (19) or former London Knight Robert Thomas (20). His 2nd pick in the draft was used on Rasanen who wasn't even able to stick in the AHL or KHL.

I should say, right off the bat, that I prefer Dubas to Hunter with respect to drafting. I just don't like the "splitting" you see on this forum. My guy -> good; therefore, your guy -> bad. It's always a little more complicated than that.

I agree with most of what you wrote although some of it is hindsight. I remember most of the board absolutely loved the 2015 picks and, if I recall, it was rated highly by the media types too.

2016...as I mentioned, there's promise there. Yeah, we will see about Middleton. You may be right. However, there's still Matthews and 3 or 4 guys who may have a career. If that's the case, that's considered a very successful draft, even with 3rd or 4th liners.

Again, just trying to be as objective as possible.

 

[banks]

Is there any evidence that Dubas was pushing Marner and Hunter wasnt? No one on the Leafs staff knew Marner more than Hunter, and have to believe they had him #3 on their board.

Not at all, and I'm not suggesting Hunter didn't want Marner. I'm just saying that it's the only input I know for sure Dubas had that year. That's been confirmed.

Saying Dubas liked Marner is just that.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Does heart and desire enter into it anywhere?

Yeah, like for junior age players we can look at their desire in the OHL playoffs and for some the Memorial Cup. Take the much maligned Mitch Marner. His playoff performances and play in the mem cup were exceptional. It is just he hasn't yet brought it to the NHL.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

The problem is not first round picks from 8 years ago. The problem is we have not been able to find anything in the mid and late rounds in the Shanahan era. Kyle Dubas's first as GM was 2018, it is unfair to place the blame entirely on him. Those guys are still very young. Give it a couple more years to start evaluating his choices

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

That is why I say all prospects are suspects until proven otherwise.

Hunter was getting a lot of early praise for his selections, and carried a big reputation as some kind of scouting savant, but now as time passes we're starting to see and feel the impact of those years where he mainly came up empty and often.

There is a reason that even Lou did not ask him to come be the assistant GM of the Isles. No other team wanted him because they knew most of his building a winner in London was done in an underhanded way and not honestly. He would tell players to say they were going the college route and they would fall in the OHL draft where he would pick them on a "Flyer"...what do you know, he changed his mind all of a sudden...wow...what luck.

 

[HellasLEAF]

Dubas drafting has been piss poor. Which stems from his lack of understanding at the NHL level.

 

[Marmoset]

I think both Dubas and Hunter have hurt their drafts by honing in on very specific types of players, which by its nature means you are excluding other players.

Of course every organization is going to have certain traits they prefer and look for. However, under Hunter there was a very clear trend of drafting big guys and hoping they could be developed into hockey players. Dubas clearly has targeted skill and speed and does not care for some other traits such as size. Dubas has also shown a tendency to draft from certain leagues and not from others.

I believe that a good GM/organization should not be as rigid in the type of players they select as both of these GMs have been. Look for the best players available, not the best players that fit your particular template. The rigid approach gives you a smaller pool of players to pull from, compared to if you're considering players of different skill levels, size, league, etc. and looking at how you might be able to develop them. A smaller pool of players that you consider will usually mean a smaller chance of success IMO, unless you are ultimately correct that those specific traits you focused on lead to better NHL players. So far this has not been the case.

(Note: Time will tell whether or not Dubas' approach is correct as it's still too early to tell).

 

[exporta]

Not at all, and I'm not suggesting Hunter didn't want Marner. I'm just saying that it's the only input I know for sure Dubas had that year. That's been confirmed.

Saying Dubas liked Marner is just that.

Fair enough, i always just looked at it as a hunter pick.

 

[Cams]

Not at all, and I'm not suggesting Hunter didn't want Marner. I'm just saying that it's the only input I know for sure Dubas had that year. That's been confirmed.

Saying Dubas liked Marner is just that.

I believe in the Marner draft, it was Babcock who wanted Hanifin, but Dubas/Hunter wanted Marner.

 

[Cams]

There is a reason that even Lou did not ask him to come be the assistant GM of the Isles. No other team wanted him because they knew most of his building a winner in London was done in an underhanded way and not honestly. He would tell players to say they were going the college route and they would fall in the OHL draft where he would pick them on a "Flyer"...what do you know, he changed his mind all of a sudden...wow...what luck.

Also - wasn't Hunter rumoured by the Canadian media to be a candidate for Edmonton and a few other teams..... but I don't think he even got an interview. As you said, being a GM in the OHL and having success with "cooked deals" is different. Not saying all the Knights success over the years was because of this, but they along with other teams were know to do this especially throughout the late 90's early 2000's - the OHL mostly looked the way, as success was priority over integrity. London, Plymouth, Windsor (yes, we got caught - rumour has it a player outed them....Jack Campbell or Austin Watson?, I don't know how it ended being), Kitchener were all teams that more times than not got the late round 'flyer" to report.

You can't tell me that Hunter only wanted to work with the Leafs or just go home to London.......

 

[Curt]

I believe in the Marner draft, it was Babcock who wanted Hanifin, but Dubas/Hunter wanted Marner.

Can’t believe how far that marner pick has set this franchise back.

 

[Bomber0104]

Can’t believe how far that marner pick has set this franchise back.

The pick itself was great.

The RFA contract given to him by the current GM is disgusting.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Those are the wrong picks to highlight your grievances with.

With where Sandin (29th) & Robertson (53rd) were picked they are looking like absolute steals with how they're trending and are valuable assets.

At the end of the day people can pick on their flaws but having Sandin & Robertson who are widely considered top 30 already drafted prospects league wide is a reflection that our scouting department is doing something right in adding assets to the organization.

They both are IF they can lengthen their strides and get NHL straight line speed YES .. if NOT then they will both be BUSTS .. to me I would rather go for guys who already have da SPEED, IQ and SIZE .. we already have too much skill on roster and only 3 years left to exploit those skill sets .. I don't see anything in minors today with nhl speed, nhl size and IQ who can come up and take a 3rd or 4th line spot .. that is a travesty .. those guys were there in draft and we passed for skilled guys with speed

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Also - wasn't Hunter rumoured by the Canadian media to be a candidate for Edmonton and a few other teams..... but I don't think he even got an interview. As you said, being a GM in the OHL and having success with "cooked deals" is different. Not saying all the Knights success over the years was because of this, but they along with other teams were know to do this especially throughout the late 90's early 2000's - the OHL mostly looked the way, as success was priority over integrity. London, Plymouth, Windsor (yes, we got caught - rumour has it a player outed them....Jack Campbell or Austin Watson?, I don't know how it ended being), Kitchener were all teams that more times than not got the late round 'flyer" to report.

You can't tell me that Hunter only wanted to work with the Leafs or just go home to London.......

I didn't know there were other teams using the 'London method' for drafting...thanks for the info. I do think it's pretty obvious he was not good at his job because of the lack of interest from other teams. Most people thought that he would go to NYI and be the assistant to Lou while waiting to take over one day. The fact that Lou didn't ask him to come there (that we know of) leads me to think he is record spoke for itself and that was all teams needed to see.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I think both Dubas and Hunter have hurt their drafts by honing in on very specific types of players, which by its nature means you are excluding other players.

Of course every organization is going to have certain traits they prefer and look for. However, under Hunter there was a very clear trend of drafting big guys and hoping they could be developed into hockey players. Dubas clearly has targeted skill and speed and does not care for some other traits such as size. Dubas has also shown a tendency to draft from certain leagues and not from others.

I believe that a good GM/organization should not be as rigid in the type of players they select as both of these GMs have been. Look for the best players available, not the best players that fit your particular template. The rigid approach gives you a smaller pool of players to pull from, compared to if you're considering players of different skill levels, size, league, etc. and looking at how you might be able to develop them. A smaller pool of players that you consider will usually mean a smaller chance of success IMO, unless you are ultimately correct that those specific traits you focused on lead to better NHL players. So far this has not been the case.

(Note: Time will tell whether or not Dubas' approach is correct as it's still too early to tell).

I know Dubas talks about market inefficiency all the time and while that might have been true in the past...most teams are not as scared to draft smaller players anymore. The problem that Dubas seems to have is he keeps thinking these smaller players are undervalued like before and are therefore on "Sale" when he picks them lower in the draft. The issue with that is that every team might not mind a Robertson or Caulfield but you can't have a team full of them and expect to win in the playoffs. It's kind of like the whole "Too much of a good thing is bad" kind of situation.

He keeps drafting guys below 6ft because he thinks they are a steal...that may be true to a certain extent...but you can't have a team full of sub 6ft guys unless they are Kucherov level skilled. We keep getting these "deals" but in the end it's getting us no further ahead since very few have panned out so far that you could trade them for size.