Leafs not drafting well ?

[JT AM da real deal]

I know Dubas talks about market inefficiency all the time and while that might have been true in the past...most teams are not as scared to draft smaller players anymore. The problem that Dubas seems to have is he keeps thinking these smaller players are undervalued like before and are therefore on "Sale" when he picks them lower in the draft. The issue with that is that every team might not mind a Robertson or Caulfield but you can't have a team full of them and expect to win in the playoffs. It's kind of like the whole "Too much of a good thing is bad" kind of situation.

He keeps drafting guys below 6ft because he thinks they are a steal...that may be true to a certain extent...but you can't have a team full of sub 6ft guys unless they are Kucherov level skilled. We keep getting these "deals" but in the end it's getting us no further ahead since very few have panned out so far that you could trade them for size.

He may have da formula in 20 years as NHL progresses with analytics and game gets more soft .. but today it does not work in playoff hockey .. your core must have da extra gear .. not only skill but SPEED and SIZE

 

[Cams]

I didn't know there were other teams using the 'London method' for drafting...thanks for the info. I do think it's pretty obvious he was not good at his job because of the lack of interest from other teams. Most people thought that he would go to NYI and be the assistant to Lou while waiting to take over one day. The fact that Lou didn't ask him to come there (that we know of) leads me to think he is record spoke for itself and that was all teams needed to see.

I don't think it goes on much anymore since Windsor got fined and one of the WHL teams as well, but before then it was pretty well known especially if you knew the right people to talk to. I had lots of insider info back in the early 2000's and some of the things were surprising. Lots of rumours, and then it was kind of interesting to hear about the drafting, etc. Keep in mind too - there are a lot of players that when picked later by OHL teams, that despite likely having a deal in place did not end up reporting to the OHL. There actually as a really good website back a few years ago that focused on college hockey and you could really get good insight into who was going/recruited to Jr A teams - the guy who ran the site whined a lot. A lot of deals were in place for the Euro draft into the CHL as well - certain teams in all 3 leagues always got the best players available.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I know Dubas talks about market inefficiency all the time and while that might have been true in the past...most teams are not as scared to draft smaller players anymore. The problem that Dubas seems to have is he keeps thinking these smaller players are undervalued like before and are therefore on "Sale" when he picks them lower in the draft. The issue with that is that every team might not mind a Robertson or Caulfield but you can't have a team full of them and expect to win in the playoffs. It's kind of like the whole "Too much of a good thing is bad" kind of situation.

He keeps drafting guys below 6ft because he thinks they are a steal...that may be true to a certain extent...but you can't have a team full of sub 6ft guys unless they are Kucherov level skilled. We keep getting these "deals" but in the end it's getting us no further ahead since very few have panned out so far that you could trade them for size.

To be fair, the Lightning just won 2 straight cups with a small forward group.

Palat (5'11) Point (5'9) Kucherov (6'0)
Killorn (6'1) Cirelli (6'0) Stamkos (6'0)
Goodrow (6'2) Gourde (5'9) Coleman (5'11)
Maroon (6'4) Johnson (5'8) Joseph (6'1)
Colton (5'11)

Thats a smaller group than our team. Difference is their team plays with heart and actually finishes checks constantly. Their Defense is big though. But yes, we shouldn't be drafting the same type of player constantly and have a solid mix of prospects.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

He may have da formula in 20 years as NHL progresses with analytics and game gets more soft .. but today it does not work in playoff hockey .. your core must have da extra gear .. not only skill but SPEED and SIZE

Not sure about size (necessarily) with forwards. But at least you gotta be fearless and go where no Leaf has gone before.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

To be fair, the Lightning just won 2 straight cups with a small forward group.

Palat (5'11) Point (5'9) Kucherov (6'0)
Killorn (6'1) Cirelli (6'0) Stamkos (6'0)
Goodrow (6'2) Gourde (5'9) Coleman (5'11)
Maroon (6'4) Johnson (5'8) Joseph (6'1)
Colton (5'11)

Thats a smaller group than our team. Difference is their team plays with heart and actually finishes checks constantly. Their Defense is big though. But yes, we shouldn't be drafting the same type of player constantly and have a solid mix of prospects.

Bingo. But they are big on D.

 

[Trapper]

Bingo. But they are big on D.

All forwards gave up their bodies throughout the playoffs. Not the size of the dog in the fight.

Which one of our 4 will play through rib injuries or others?

 

[ottomaddox]

Not drafting well...

 

[forecheck]

If I remember correctly, I believe Dubas and Hunter worked in tandem for 2015 (Marner Draft), Lamoriello and Hunter were the figureheads for years 2016 and 2017. Then it has been all Dubas since 2018.

It is funny how obvious the difference in philosophy is between the groups. Dubas takes the most skilled players despite their position, Hunter/Lou took the bigger guys despite their skill.

2015 (Dubas/Hunter): Marner, Dermott, Bracco, Nielsen, Dzierkals, Lindgren, Timashov, Desroscher, and Korostelev.
2016 (Lou/Hunter): Matthews, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Woll, James Greenway, Brooks, Middleton, Bobylev, Walker, Mattinen, Chebykin.
2017 (Lou/Hunter): Liljegren, Rasanen, Scott, Kara, Gordeev, McGregor, O'Connell
2018 (Dubas): Sandin, Durzi, Der-Arguchintsev, Stotts, Hollowell, Kral, Holmberg, Bouthillier, Kizimov.
2019 (Dubas): Robertson, Kokkonen, Abramov, Abruzesse, Koster, Loponen.
2020 (Dubas): Amirov, Hirvonen, Niemela, Akhtyamov, Villinueve, Ovchinnikov, Miettinen, Rindell, Miller, Fusco, Schingoethe, Tverberg.

If you look up the names from each draft class you will see "big, strong, needs work on skating" for a lot of Hunter/Lou picks and a lot of "speed, skilled, undersized" for a lot of Dubas picks.

For drafting I tend to lean toward the Dubas side because skilled players have a better shot to make the NHL than a weak skater. Those skilled guys can even give you better trade chips in the future.

Your making things up to fit your Narrative.... Dubas played a very minimal role until Lou left ..

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

We've been drafting fine recently. Matthews was a no brainer, Sandin is young but looks promising. Dermott is a decent NHLer. Marner...great regular season yet to show up in the playoffs. Nylander was a great pick, Rielly was a good pick. Amirov is too early but looks good, Robertson was a steal, Connor Brown was a fantastic pick, Kadri was great as well. We've been hitting with the 1st round pretty well. The later rounds haven't been the best.

I guess beyond the first round has sucked. In the last decade only Dermott, Robertson, Brown.

Also very curious, how much of that should be attributed to drafting vs development ? A lot of responsibility lands on the trainers and coaches for how a player turns out.

You missed Johnsson and others

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Not sure about size (necessarily) with forwards. But at least you gotta be fearless and go where no Leaf has gone before.

Agreed .. size is least important up front .. but speed is critical .. skill alone is just not enough .. you need skill too but skill alone is not gonna get er done .. our forward group lacks speed 1st and foremost .. but caveats Mik speed and size is useless as almost no skill .. then again Kerfoot and Willy speed was perfect as Willy has amazing skill and Kerfoot plays fearless .. you have to go through each player and assess their abilities and then fit lines together so you build a useful line .. for me I would have gone Zach on left wing, Kerfoot at centre and Willy on right wing .. that line on Habs 2nd line and we win series even without JT .. Zach on forecheck and backcheck and net front .. Willy bringing puck into zone and finish .. Kerfoot to create with his speed which Suzuki could not handle .. then move Mitch on a 3rd line with whoever so coach creates room he needs against Kok who could not have handled him (throw Wayner on his wing and tell him to create space for Mitch he knows exactly how to do it) .. then Danault shuts down Matty and Mik so what who cares we won series .. we were very badly coached this year .. there was zero recognition by coach who was performing and why? .. to win you have to adjust and we did ZERO adjustments for playoff hockey

 

[tronoleaf]

In 2014, drafted after 68 (Valiev): Point, Merzlikins, Sorokin; drafted after 103 (Piccinich): Toews, Arvidsson

In 2015, drafted after 4 (Marner): Provorov, Werenski, Barzal, Rantanen; drafted after 34 (Dermott* Hunter traded down from 24 to 34, dumb): Aho, Carlo, Cernak, Dunn, Andersson, Hintz,

In 2016, drafted after 31 (Korshkov): DeBrincat, Hronek, Girard, Hart, Fox

 

[HamiltonNHL]

In 2014, drafted after 68 (Valiev): Point, Merzlikins, Sorokin; drafted after 103 (Piccinich): Toews, Arvidsson

In 2015, drafted after 4 (Marner): Provorov, Werenski, Barzal, Rantanen; drafted after 34 (Dermott* Hunter traded down from 24 to 34, dumb): Aho, Carlo, Cernak, Dunn, Andersson, Hintz,

In 2016, drafted after 31 (Korshkov): DeBrincat, Hronek, Girard, Hart, Fox

We should be privy to GM drafting stats where they are rated according to who they miss and who they take.

 

[NewEraGM]

Drafting small guys like Robertson and Sandin will limit team performance .. but even worse we did not draft FAST guys .. we drafted small men with SKILL .. not small men with SPEED .. Dubie fails to understand da importance of SPEED in playoff hockey .. we need to draft guys first and foremost who have SPEED .. then SIZE .. and then SKILL .. Dubie as a non player just does not get it .. da Leafs have too many skilled players who lack speed and size

Skill is more important that size. Point, Caufield, Byron, Suzuki, Gourde all had good playoffs. A big man with speed doesn’t get you much if they don’t have skill.

 

[Bomber0104]

Skill is more important that size. Point, Caufield, Byron, Suzuki, Gourde all had good playoffs. A big man with speed doesn’t get you much if they don’t have skill.

A team of 5'9 speedsters vs 6'4 bruisers.

Who wins a seven game series, most times?

Guess.

 

[Gabriel426]

Can Sandin plays as a forward? Bc the more I read about TB the more I think Sandin will struggle in the NHL unless his partner is Prime Pietra or Hedman.

 

[NewEraGM]

A team of 5'9 speedsters vs 6'4 bruisers.

Who wins a seven game series, most times?

Guess.

A team of Point’s versus a team of Simmonds’ - who wins?

Ideally you have speed size and skill, but I think it today’s game, the idea that you need size is wrong. As long as the team overall has a mix, I think it’s okay.

every star player in the league has skill. They do not all have size, or speed (although they probably don’t have bad speed)

skill is more important that size for an individual player but ideally the team as a whole has balance of everything

 

[Bomber0104]

A team of Point’s versus a team of Simmonds’ - who wins?

I'd assume a team of $8-9 million dollar cap hits takes out a team of league minimum guys, handedly.

That wasn't what I was asking, clearly.

Weird exaggeration though.

Definitely helps your case your trying to make...

Ideally you have speed size and skill, but I think it today’s game, the idea that you need size is wrong. As long as the team overall has a mix, I think it’s okay.

Both teams that went to the final would slap the Leafs around.

In fact, one of them did that on their way to that very final round...

every star player in the league has skill. They do not all have size, or speed (although they probably don’t have bad speed)

skill is more important that size for an individual player but ideally the team as a whole has balance of everything

Being big and tough and physical is a skill.

Not sure where people like you lost the plot, but danglez and snipes can't be accomplished if you can't get through checking.

It's actually amazing this needs explaining, on a hockey forum.

 

[NewEraGM]

I'd assume a team of $8-9 million dollar cap hits takes out a team of league minimum guys, handedly.

That wasn't what I was asking, clearly.

Weird exaggeration though.

Definitely helps your case your trying to make...



Both teams that went to the final would slap the Leafs around.

In fact, one of them did that on their way to that very final round...



Being big and tough and physical is a skill.

Not sure where people like you lost the plot, but danglez and snipes can't be accomplished if you can't get through checking.

It's actually amazing this needs explaining, on a hockey forum.

i just can’t believe you think size is more important than skill….

I’m not saying size is not important. I’d rather big over small of course, but the fact of the matter is that skill is more important. Name me one unskilled player in the top 30 in scoring….yet there are many small players in the top 30.

Being big is not a skill. That is literally something you are born with. It’s like me saying my head that grows brown hair is a skill…

you are also being very rude in your comments. No need to be so condescending. We can have a conversation as adults

 

[Bomber0104]

i just can’t believe you think size is more important than skill….

"Skill"

What is this though?

Is "skill" just a euphemism for a player that can play offensively but can't withstand the overall rigours that the game demands?

That's what your interpretation sounds like, at least to me.

I’m not saying size is not important. I’d rather big over small of course, but the fact of the matter is that skill is more important. Name me one unskilled player in the top 30 in scoring….yet there are many small players in the top 30.

Hockeys about roles.

I expect scorers to score, and they're made a certain way.

85% of the team however isn't going to be a top scorer on the team, nevermind the league.

They need to be a different type of player with a different overall makeup.

Again, it's shocking that this needs to be explained on a hockey forum to a guy with a username "NewEraGM".

Being big is not a skill. That is literally something you are born with. It’s like me saying my head that grows brown hair is a skill…

you are also being very rude in your comments. No need to be so condescending. We can have a conversation as adults

Sorry to be so offensive.

Not my intention but I guess I just like to throw my weight around, so to speak.

 

[NewEraGM]

"Skill"

What is this though?

Is "skill" just a euphemism for a player that can play offensively but can't withstand the overall rigours that the game demands?

That's what your interpretation sounds like, at least to me.



Hockeys about roles.

I expect scorers to score, and they're made a certain way.

85% of the team however isn't going to be a top scorer on the team, nevermind the league.

They need to be a different type of player with a different overall makeup.

Again, it's shocking that this needs to be explained on a hockey forum to a guy with a username "NewEraGM".



Sorry to be so offensive.

Not my intention but I guess I just like to throw my weight around, so to speak.

you’re on an island here my guy.
I hear what you are saying but your opinion is wrong here

 

[Stephen]

I believe in the Marner draft, it was Babcock who wanted Hanifin, but Dubas/Hunter wanted Marner.

It sounded like the Leafs wanted Marner at 4, but if he was already off the board they were also willing to trade down into the Rantanen, Werenski, Provorov range, while Babcock also liked Hanifin.

 

[Bomber0104]

you’re on an island here my guy.
I hear what you are saying but your opinion is wrong here

My "island" is all successful teams in hockey since forever.

The Kyle Dubas-style hockey and cap-management we've seen thus far is the real island.

Zero success.

It's in plain view.

Yeah, I'm wrong though.

Get real.

 

[NewEraGM]

My "island" is all successful teams in hockey since forever.

The Kyle Dubas-style hockey and cap-management we've seen thus far is the real island.

Zero success.

It's in plain view.

Yeah, I'm wrong though.

Get real.

you misunderstood my guy.
I have said in all my posts that a TEAM needs the balance of all 3. Toronto does not have that balance. Toronto is not the example of what I’m saying. You are not reading my posts attentively. Please pay attention to detail.

I’m talking on an individual player level. I’d rather have skill over size. Every GM would agree. Does that meanI want a team of only skilled players? No. I have said this already…

 

[Bomber0104]

you misunderstood my guy.
I have said in all my posts that a TEAM needs the balance of all 3. Toronto does not have that balance. Toronto is not the example of what I’m saying. You are not reading my posts attentively. Please pay attention to detail.

I’m talking on an individual player level. I’d rather have skill over size. Every GM would agree. Does that meanI want a team of only skilled players? No. I have said this already…

Your definition of what "skill" is, oh how should I put it?

Well off the mark.

There's lots of skills in hockey.

Guys like Gallagher, Cirelli, Hedman or Weber, on any given night, can be more valuable than Connor McDavid.

A sport as chaotic as hockey needs discerning eyes to decipher and realize that, though.

Lazy fans fall back on rudimentary stats.

The current Leafs GM falls back on rudimentary stats.

It's really sad.

 

[keonsbitterness]

3) Likes a narrow, close-minded, made-up construct of what hockey is, called: "skilled"

I get your point, but skill in sports most often refers to proficiency with the puck or ball -- skating, stick-handling, shooting, and passing in the case of hockey. Those other skills/attributes you mention are obviously important, but generally harder to project in teenage prospects. Guy Lafleur, one of the most prolific junior players ever, was considered a bust after his first three years before he found the inner drive to become a star. How does a scout account for that?