Leafs moves Work in progress - Depth update

[Stephen]

The only problem with that is the way Dubus has given away draft pics because of the players he has signed which haven’t worked out. A team needs to have some players on ELCs to help balance out the cap. But because Dubas has had to include draft picks to get rid of the contracts, we won’t be having much of any players coming up from the minors to help balance that cap.

My problem with Dubas’ all in approach is it’s often assets out for one run adds. Like Barrie. One run. No margin for error. Lyubushkin. Solves a need for 2 months and we need to rinse and repeat. Never moves off pending UFAs for value one year out and proactively replaces them before hand on the UFA market. (For example, he could trade Kerfoot this week and proactively replaced him with a 2-3 year solution like a Kubalik).

Like where’s the situational agility? Seems like he’s managing partially out of fear he’ll ruin the recipe for what works. And then has to maneuver out of the dead ends he always finds himself in.

 

[ToneDog]

Murray and Samsonov are just as bad. IMO it's too big of a gamble in hopes that one of them finds their game. Analytics wise Comrie was the best available and he didn't cost as much as Murray.

Look at the bright side. If they fail, it will cost Dubas his job.

Now picture this: Samsonov wins the #1 job and plays in the playoffs because Murray was injured or shit the bed. Do you then trade a 1st to dump Murray to keep Samsonov or do you let Samsonov walk ??

 

[zeke]

Their goalies are worse on paper and right now the bottom 6 are worse when last season.

Their goalies arent worse on paper unless you ignore Mrazek .888 and Kallgren .888.

They've lost 1 3rd liner, and are replacing all the cheapo 4th line vets with other cheapo 4th line vets and/or kids.

 

[NewEraGM]

Outside of their top 5-6 players, leafs have zero foundation to their team. It’s just who can they fit under the cap. These signings do NOTHING for the leafs come playoff time and their bottom 6 is atrocious !!

Teams that go deep have depth! Not every team that goes deep has the goaltending (Colorado) or the defense (Pittsburgh wins) or the superstars up front (St Louis), but they all have depth. Leafs have none. They will make playoffs 100% but this team is not built to win at all.

 

[Mess]

Campbell had terrible numbers this year..

While Campbell was named and playing in the NHL All-Star game in 2021-22, Matt Murray was clearing NHL waivers unclaimed and being sent to the AHL to find his game.



Senators head coach D.J. Smith "singled out his netminder after Wednesday's 6-3 loss to the San Jose Sharks when Murray gave up four goals on 27 shots but wants and hopes that a stint in the AHL can help him get back on track".

Campbell while injury prone himself won 31 games last year for TO in 49 games. Matt Murray won only 5 games in 2021-22, and 10 games in 2020-21 and just 20 games in 2019-20 (still with Pens) in 85 games combined for 35 wins total.

Leafs are going to need Matt Murray to bounce back and win nearly 35 games by himself this year (his last 3 year total), which might be a large ask.

Lets not forget Murray is coming off a serious concussion where he played his last game March 5th has missed the last 4 months and hoping to get back on skates for the first time next week if all goes well.

The Leafs are hoping Murray can return to his form of 2016 which was 6 years ago now where he played in 49 games won 32 and posted a 2.41 GAA and .923 sv% and NOT the guy of the past 2 seasons with 47 games 15 wins with 3.34 GAA and .899 sv% combined, and spent time in the AHL. to find his game. In hopes he leads them to a Stanley Cup then that might be the biggest gamble anybody is taking this year. .

 

[genk]

While Campbell was named and playing in the NHL All-Star game in 2021-22, Matt Murray was clearing NHL waivers unclaimed and being sent to the AHL to find his game.



Senators head coach D.J. Smith "singled out his netminder after Wednesday's 6-3 loss to the San Jose Sharks when Murray gave up four goals on 27 shots but wants and hopes that a stint in the AHL can help him get back on track".

Campbell while injury prone himself won 31 games last year for TO in 49 games. Matt Murray won only 5 games in 2021-22, and 10 games in 2020-21 and just 20 games in 2019-20 (still with Pens) in 85 games combined for 35 wins total.

Leafs are going to need Matt Murray to bounce back and win nearly 35 games by himself this year (his last 3 year total), which might be a large ask.

Lets not forget Murray is coming off a serious concussion where he played his last game March 5th has missed the last 4 months and hoping to get back on skates for the first time next week if all goes well.

The Leafs are hoping Murray can return to his form of 2016 which was 6 years ago now where he played in 49 games won 32 and posted a 2.41 GAA and .923 sv% and NOT the guy of the past 2 seasons with 47 games 15 wins wiht 3.34 GAA and .899 sv% combined.

The Leafs don’t need 2016 Murray. All they need is 2021-2022 Murray. Last year he was fine.

 

[Stephen]

Look at the bright side. If they fail, it will cost Dubas his job.

Now picture this: Samsonov wins the #1 job and plays in the playoffs because Murray was injured or shit the bed. Do you then trade a 1st to dump Murray to keep Samsonov or do you let Samsonov walk ??

Think you send Murray to the presidential suite on Robidas Island and feel thankful the Samsonov was the right hedge bet.

 

[ToneDog]

Think you send Murray to the presidential suite on Robidas Island and feel thankful the Samsonov was the right hedge bet.

We did not do that with Mrazek but then again it won't be Dubas making the decision.

 

[ACC1224]

Look at the bright side. If they fail, it will cost Dubas his job.

Now picture this: Samsonov wins the #1 job and plays in the playoffs because Murray was injured or shit the bed. Do you then trade a 1st to dump Murray to keep Samsonov or do you let Samsonov walk ??

Perhaps that's the 'Future Considerations' attached to the initial trade?

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

While Campbell was named and playing in the NHL All-Star game in 2021-22, Matt Murray was clearing NHL waivers unclaimed and being sent to the AHL to find his game.



Senators head coach D.J. Smith "singled out his netminder after Wednesday's 6-3 loss to the San Jose Sharks when Murray gave up four goals on 27 shots but wants and hopes that a stint in the AHL can help him get back on track".

Campbell while injury prone himself won 31 games last year for TO in 49 games. Matt Murray won only 5 games in 2021-22, and 10 games in 2020-21 and just 20 games in 2019-20 (still with Pens) in 85 games combined for 35 wins total.

Leafs are going to need Matt Murray to bounce back and win nearly 35 games by himself this year (his last 3 year total), which might be a large ask.

Lets not forget Murray is coming off a serious concussion where he played his last game March 5th has missed the last 4 months and hoping to get back on skates for the first time next week if all goes well.

The Leafs are hoping Murray can return to his form of 2016 which was 6 years ago now where he played in 49 games won 32 and posted a 2.41 GAA and .923 sv% and NOT the guy of the past 2 seasons with 47 games 15 wins with 3.34 GAA and .899 sv% combined, and spent time in the AHL. to find his game. In hopes he leads them to a Stanley Cup then that might be the biggest gamble anybody is taking this year. .

Matt Murray played for the Ottawa Senators, Jack Campbell played for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Why are we comparing stats?

 

[zeke]

While Campbell was named and playing in the NHL All-Star game in 2021-22, Matt Murray was clearing NHL waivers unclaimed and being sent to the AHL to find his game.



Senators head coach D.J. Smith "singled out his netminder after Wednesday's 6-3 loss to the San Jose Sharks when Murray gave up four goals on 27 shots but wants and hopes that a stint in the AHL can help him get back on track".

Campbell while injury prone himself won 31 games last year for TO in 49 games. Matt Murray won only 5 games in 2021-22, and 10 games in 2020-21 and just 20 games in 2019-20 (still with Pens) in 85 games combined for 35 wins total.

Leafs are going to need Matt Murray to bounce back and win nearly 35 games by himself this year (his last 3 year total), which might be a large ask.

Lets not forget Murray is coming off a serious concussion where he played his last game March 5th has missed the last 4 months and hoping to get back on skates for the first time next week if all goes well.

The Leafs are hoping Murray can return to his form of 2016 which was 6 years ago now where he played in 49 games won 32 and posted a 2.41 GAA and .923 sv% and NOT the guy of the past 2 seasons with 47 games 15 wins with 3.34 GAA and .899 sv% combined, and spent time in the AHL. to find his game. In hopes he leads them to a Stanley Cup then that might be the biggest gamble anybody is taking this year. .

It's amazing how much you love Campbell now after what you've said about him the past 3yrs.

 

[stealth1]

Matt Murray played for the Ottawa Senators, Jack Campbell played for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Why are we comparing stats?

If Murray was a decent goalie his sv% would be much higher and if he was decent the Sens wouldn't be looking to get rid of him.

 

[stealth1]

It's amazing how much you love Campbell now after what you've said about him the past 3yrs.

It's also amazing how now that Murray is a leaf he has chance to get his form when last year most Leaf fans thought he was crap.

 

[Superstar]

...that added significantly throughout the lineup and changed their head coach.



I think you might be unfamailiar with Detroit's state of affairs: Elmer Soderblom is coming over. He won what Seider won. Edvinsson is coming over. Berggren who is 21 is poised to make the jump very soon.

Larkin will be 26 at the start of the season. Bertuzzi, 27 and so's Husso; Hronek, 24. Suter will be 26 and so will Vrana and so will Nedljkovic.

As for their 2 nice rooks: One won the Calder. It doesn't get better. And Seider is absolutely the real deal.


Highly suspect? I might be inclined to say the same thing if I didn't admire Yzerman's industry. He signed Husso, Copp, Perron and Chariot...all pieces we could and should have been in on.

Husso for a 3rd is "at great expense"? On a club who has used draft picks in the way we have that may be. Detroit on the other hand is FLUSH at foreseeable draft tables. And again, their cap management is nearly ideal. At great expense...maybe to our model, not Detroit's.

I'm not sure what you mean by "highly suspect". Like Bunting "highly suspect" or Murray "highly suspect"? Or "old", Zeke: Copp's 28; Kubalik's 27. Now go on and list the other names with numbers above, to say nothing of Seider, Raymond, Veleno and Rasmussen.

Perron's 34 and Chariot's 31. So while Chariot's pushing it, he's Perron's age and a bit by the end of his contract. Perron's going to be that veteran leaderhip for Detroit's forwards that every club should have. That we should have had and a need specifically his name that we failed to attract or rather, were unable to get.



Again, perhaps a little of the Leafs Nation fiscal PTSD going on, but Detroit has latitude the likes of which we won't in the foreseeable future. They're not hamstrung by term or dollar amount or the appearance of quality in those contracts. There is no Tavares. They're not held hostage by Marner and Matthews pact.

To think Larkin and Bertuzzi would present re-signing problems is to fundamentally not understand Detroit's situation now and going forward.

Yzerman let Stamkos kicked tires before coming back, and we all know what happened with Drouin for Sergachev...seriously, we would drool if the Leafs had a GM like Yzerman...who wouldn't trade Dubas for Yzerman in a heartbeat?

 

[Superstar]

I think the medium term play is just to contend and tread water until the next Matthews, Nylander and Marner deals are signed. In two years time, Brodie, Muzzin, Murray will be off the books or on different contracts and in three years John Tavares shackles come off which represents over $25 million in flexibility. So combine with the cap rising expect to see the program refreshed after JT.

I honestly don't think Nylander is coming back after his contract is up, while if Dubas is still around, he'll bend over again to sign Matthews and Marner...Matthews might bring his Rockets, Hart, Ted Lindsay and Calder to the negotiation table...

 

[Stephen]

It's amazing how much you love Campbell now after what you've said about him the past 3yrs.

Don’t think anybody who watched Campbell’s ups and downs would “love” him but there is a bit more clarity on what you could expect over a typical season, as opposed to a newly rehabbed Murray with a rebuilt game on a brand new team.

Murray’s contract is marginally cheaper with retention and is escapable in terms of length which may be preferable to 5 up and down years with Campbell. But we are making a parlay bet on 1) quality 2) sustained health 3) team fit.

 

[deprw]

Don’t think anybody who watched Campbell’s ups and downs would “love” him but there is a bit more clarity on what you could expect over a typical season, as opposed to a newly rehabbed Murray with a rebuilt game on a brand new team.

Murray’s contract is marginally cheaper with retention and is escapable in terms of length which may be preferable to 5 up and down years with Campbell. But we are making a parlay bet on 1) quality 2) sustained health 3) team fit.

I'd say one advantage we have over Ottawa is way better medical, development and training staff. Hopefully they can work with Murray. Listened that Woodley bit from podcast and it seems like they have a clue what to do with Murray and he has been underdog before. It's still gamble, but in fairness it would have been even with Jack. He had that great stretch at the start of the season and it was real spotty after that.

In overall I think it's way too early to judge our team right now. Would think we'll see some moves before preseason and it should affect our bottom6.

 

[ACC1224]

Yzerman let Stamkos kicked tires before coming back, and we all know what happened with Drouin for Sergachev...seriously, we would drool if the Leafs had a GM like Yzerman...who wouldn't trade Dubas for Yzerman in a heartbeat?

I think we all know a couple who wouldn't.

 

[zeke]

It's also amazing how now that Murray is a leaf he has chance to get his form when last year most Leaf fans thought he was crap.

Personally I expect the norms from both Murray and Samsonov which should give us similar overall goaltending as last year.

 

[Mess]

The Leafs don’t need 2016 Murray. All they need is 2021-2022 Murray. Last year he was fine.

2021-2022 Murray played in only 20 games with a record of 5-12-3.

If Leafs get 2021-22 Murray for $4.68 mil cap with those exact results Houston we have a serious problem.

If the Leafs get 2020-21 & 2021-22 combined 47 games 15-27-3 record 3.34 GAA & .899 sv% and 3.2 saves above expected (28th overall) Leafs can't make the playoffs unless 2021-22 Samsonov 44 games 3.02 GAA & .896 sv% and -12.1 goals saved above expected (107th) saves them winning 80% of his starts based on those numbers to get Leafs into the playoffs.

In fact due to $7 mil cap Murray struggles, the Sens claimed Anton Forsberg on waivers from CBJ and got 44 games 22-17-4 record with 2.82 GAA and .917 sv% & 8.5 goals saved above expected (16th best overall).. The numbers don't lie how much better Forsberg a waiver claims #'s were on the same team in front of the same players as Murray, so noone can use Ottawa as an excuse for the poor stats by one goalie vs another.

Leafs will need major bounce back years in both health and productivity from both their goalies, to not see a drop off in points in the standings.

PS.. If the Leafs needed only 2021-22 Murray results then they could have simply kept Mrazak 20 games 12-6-0 record 3.34 GAA and .889 sv% because they already had them essentially.

 

[zeke]

Yzerman let Stamkos kicked tires before coming back, and we all know what happened with Drouin for Sergachev...seriously, we would drool if the Leafs had a GM like Yzerman...who wouldn't trade Dubas for Yzerman in a heartbeat?

I love that everybody thinks the 25th placed Wings are some young hot up and comers while the Leafs are post-window done fors.

Yes, the wings had a couple great rookies this year but it might surprise you folks to compare the actual ages on the rosters:

 

[stealth1]

Personally I expect the norms from both Murray and Samsonov which should give us similar overall goaltending as last year.

Look how that ended.

 

[zeke]

Highly suspect? I might be inclined to say the same thing if I didn't admire Yzerman's industry. He signed Husso, Copp, Perron and Chariot...all pieces we could and should have been in on.

Why should we have been on a 34yr old Perron, or overpaid for Copp, or drastically and hilariously overpaid for Chiarot, or bet on Husso who was a mediocre AHL goalie and has one half season of NHL success which he followed up immediately by falling apart in the playoffs?

Again, perhaps a little of the Leafs Nation fiscal PTSD going on, but Detroit has latitude the likes of which we won't in the foreseeable future. They're not hamstrung by term or dollar amount or the appearance of quality in those contracts. There is no Tavares. They're not held hostage by Marner and Matthews pact.

To think Larkin and Bertuzzi would present re-signing problems is to fundamentally not understand Detroit's situation now and going forward.

You are absolutely right that they have no Matthews or Marner, at least.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

People sitting here talking about how much worse the Leafs have gotten and I have to tell you I just don't see it.

The offense that was #2 in the league is largely still intact, Yes Mikyehev and Kase is gone but let's be honest 1 of them is 1 solid smack away from being retired and they other got a 5 year deal at nearly 5 million per year and he's not worth that that is a MASSIVE overpayment.

The defense is probably better now than it was opening night last year because you will have Giordano for a full season

and yeah the goaltending has questions now but it wasn't solid going into last season.

and you might say "well what about the bottom 6?"

you still have Engvall and Kampf that's 2 3rds of last years 3rd line.

the 4th line needs work but it's the 4th line.

I don't see them being significantly worse.

Ib fact if they can actually get a save this year I think it's possible they are better.

 

[ITM]

Why should we have been on a 34yr old Perron, or overpaid for Copp, or drastically and hilariously overpaid for Chiarot, or bet on Husso who was a mediocre AHL goalie and has one half season of NHL success which he followed up immediately by falling apart in the playoffs?



You are absolutely right that they have no Matthews or Marner, at least.

Well Perron might provide experience and material effect in games that decide whether we go on to the second round as a starter. And as for Andrew Copp...because he is that versatile W/C player teams covet. Overpaid? Hardly. Market value...Just not ours.

And with respect to Matthews and Marner, my point with respect to repeated context is cap flexibility to acquire depth and move it while only positively affecting our general outcome. We do not have that type of latitude.

As players, Marner and Matthews are better than what Detroit has at the moment. Maybe even better than what Colorado can muster on a player by player comparison. But with Matthews and Marner and our limitations we were nowhere near Colorado's depth. And I'm not sure, absent the very welcome and unforeseen emergence of certain prospects ie Kniess. that we'll match a healthy Rangers or Lightning club.

I'm not blind to our promise or our needs and I'm not so insecure as to want the obvious improvements of other teams to be deficiencies just to cope with the very hard questions Toronto is going to have to face too soon for comfort.

Our club lost to Montreal and Columbus. I see the potential each season against champions and we've likely had it harder than most and we need to account for growth. But...Detroit has a chance to do damage and we as a fanbase would be insane to forget how high this club can appear and how bafflingly impotent we have been against lesser clubs.