Player Discussion: official trade deadline 2025 // discussion thread

[majormajor]

competence and effort aren't the issue here, it's fit. that goes both ways and isn't just about the financial resources they've committed to him.

severson is at his best when he can play his style of game, but that style doesn't fit well with any of the current LHD on the roster. when it does, he can bring a lot of good things, just with some mistakes mixed in.

I think it's more effort and less of a fit issue - I think Evason is working on him, about his mistakes but also his effort level. And his faults are being very over exaggerated here.

I'm not persuaded that there is some other system where Severson is a better fit. We play a system with a ton of activation by the D-men, we like high pressure and tight gaps in the neutral zone, and quick ups on the counter attack. This is all Damon Severson's wheelhouse. He has paired very well with Jake Christiansen at times, and if you get good results with a pairing with a third pair defender like that, even just for 14 minutes a game, that's very valuable. His results with Werenski are also good (exactly the same as Werenski's G and xG results with Fabbro or Provorov, and the corsi with Severson is much better). He also hasn't been paired with Mateychuk yet and that seems to me like potentially a better fit than Mateychuk-Provorov. He's a very imperfect player but the idea that our particular system or set of pairing mates is a poor fit for him I would call straight nonsense. He's not going to look better in most systems.

 

[majormajor]

I'm admittedly not the most knowledgable in hockey systems/tactics, but as I understand it Evason's system calls for a fair amount of this. seems like that's how most of their breakouts have gone – chips along the wall to the wing.

mateychuk is also good at breakouts and profiles as a krug type in short order. could definitely see a fit with brandon carlo in that kind of role.


seems like there's mutual interest in a long-term deal between gavrikov and the kings. he'd be a really nice piece here, though.

i really liked Pocke CBJ's piece on potential targets for the blue line, which included gavrikov. the key takeaways were:

1. they need to improve rush defense (which is where severson excels)
2. they arguably should opt to follow the contender blueprint (elite 1D on the top pair, shutdown second pair, puck mover on the third pair) but don't have true shutdown pieces yet

that piece pre-dates the seth jones chatter but frankly I can't see a great fit there. jack han pointed out some stuff a while ago with his skating while defending the rush and it doesn't appear to have gotten any better. he has some serious issues in that area. even with retention, I just don't see a great fit.


there was also a Pocke CBJ piece on forward targets, lots of the usual suspects on there (nyquist) but one guy who surprisingly stood out was tsyplakov from the islanders.

I finally had a chance to go through Schumacher's blue line targets piece - it reaffirms my interest in Adam Pelech as the #1 trade target, and brings me back to thinking that K'Andre Miller could work very well here. Gavrikov is of course the top UFA target and we should be monitoring Kovacevic closely to see how he does down the stretch and in the playoffs in New Jersey.

Schumacher does little writeups on dozens of players in this piece but doesn't write on Pelech despite his high end defensive ability, strong analytical results, and rumored availability. We should be talking about this player more.

There are a few analytical choices that Schumacher makes that I'd be curious about. The use of corsi over xG is something I see less and less of these days. There can be a big difference, for instance where puck movers that struggle to clear their crease will have good corsi defense but bad xG defense. The graphs and extended discussion of quality of competition is maybe a bit overplayed, most of these D are seeing a full spectrum of opponents, and the quality of comp differences for say Werenski and Quinn Hughes is just a few extra shifts of Werenski vs top opponents. It's not a totally different set of opponents, it's the same ones and one coach choosing to target certain opponents a few times per game. Intense line matching is rare in the regular season.

 

[Xoggz22]

As has been noted on here before... ultimately Severson cost is a sunk cost. While I'd prefer we didn't have $6.4MM invested in a player that plays best when under 18 min a night, in theory he won't impact the CAP at all in the coming years. Three more years of him probably has absolutely no impact and CBJ could still push for a top pair or top 4 RHD even if they sign Fabbro (which I hope). Eventually someone will push Severson for his job and at that point retention may not be terrible and I don't think the CBJ payroll ever grows to over $100MM. Maybe, but I'm not sure I see that. So, for now, if he can be consistently better (than not) and we can get growth in the top 4 D in general (Z, Mateychuk, Fabbro?), we can manage his contract regardless of TOI expectations vs salary. Still don't like the situation, but with the big Cap jump, there are still options to keep him and just limit his minutes to support this effectiveness.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

I finally had a chance to go through Schumacher's blue line targets piece - it reaffirms my interest in Adam Pelech as the #1 trade target, and brings me back to thinking that K'Andre Miller could work very well here. Gavrikov is of course the top UFA target and we should be monitoring Kovacevic closely to see how he does down the stretch and in the playoffs in New Jersey.

Schumacher does little writeups on dozens of players in this piece but doesn't write on Pelech despite his high end defensive ability, strong analytical results, and rumored availability. We should be talking about this player more.

It was funny how Pelech consistently stood out in a positive way and wasn't highlighted. Maybe Schumacher thought he was unlikely to get moved. Interestingly, Pelech's NTC does also become an M-NTC this off-season. Where have you seen rumours that he's available? That's news to me.

 

[majormajor]

It was funny how Pelech consistently stood out in a positive way and wasn't highlighted. Maybe Schumacher thought he was unlikely to get moved. Interestingly, Pelech's NTC does also become an M-NTC this off-season. Where have you seen rumours that he's available? That's news to me.

It was Isles fans here speculating. They at one point thought maybe both Pulock and Pelech. More recently they're speculating that one or both of Pulock and Dobson will go. But personally I think Pelech is the best defender and best fit for the Blue Jackets, also the best fit relative to the cost of the trade. I'd be making a big offer for him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Blue Jackets’ big decision​

These next few games before the deadline are massive for the Columbus Blue Jackets as they decide what to do with top-four blueliner Ivan Provorov, the 28-year-old pending UFA who is second on the team in ice time at more than 23 minutes a night. The sides exchanged offers last month and weren’t close in their positions, and my understanding is they haven’t circled back yet.

The Blue Jackets are torn, to be sure. They’ve got a team that is legitimately in a playoff race, an incredible story given preseason tragedy. So on the one hand, if you’re GM Don Waddell you would hate to take away from the roster. But on the flip side, if Provorov remains unsigned, can you really let him walk out the door July 1 and get nothing in return? Is that good asset management for a team still building?

It’s really going to come down to how the team fares over the next 3-4 games before the deadline but also the quality of trade offers coming at Columbus. If there’s a first-round pick on the table, can you really pass that up? All around, a really tough call.

To me, it looks like he’s gone in the summer. And depending on how these final pre deadline games go (especially the Detroit ones) decides whether or not we shop him. And even if they go well they may sell him anyway.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

To me, it looks like he’s gone in the summer. And depending on how these final pre deadline games go (especially the Detroit ones) decides whether or not we shop him. And even if they go well they may sell him anyway.

I don't think they are in the stage of their rebuild where they can afford to let him walk for nothing.

 

[MissADD]

To me, it looks like he’s gone in the summer. And depending on how these final pre deadline games go (especially the Detroit ones) decides whether or not we shop him. And even if they go well they may sell him anyway.

Imagine if back in October when the season started I told y'all the big discussion on Feb 26th would be keeping or trading Provorov, not because his value wasn't what was expected, but because the Jackets currently sit in a playoff spot.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I don't think they are in the stage of their rebuild where they can afford to let him walk for nothing.

And you also can't destroy the team chemistry right now without a solid replacement in place and just trade him for an unknown future player who probably won't see the roster for 2-3 years.

IF he gets dealt, I can also guarantee the trigger gets pulled on another equivalent player to fill the spot.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I think they keep him personally, regardless of if he’s going to walk

However if I was in the chair, I’d trade him if the plan isn’t to sign him. Playoffs would be nice, and he’s a big part of the team, but is Mateychuk ready? If he is, just give him those minutes. If he’s not, then Christiansen gets the chance. I’m not in favor of turning down a first round pick for an at best first round exit team.

 

[EspenK]

From the aforementioned LeBrun piece:

Blue Jackets’ big decision​

These next few games before the deadline are massive for the Columbus Blue Jackets as they decide what to do with top-four blueliner Ivan Provorov, the 28-year-old pending UFA who is second on the team in ice time at more than 23 minutes a night. The sides exchanged offers last month and weren’t close in their positions, and my understanding is they haven’t circled back yet.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I think they keep him personally, regardless of if he’s going to walk

However if I was in the chair, I’d trade him if the plan isn’t to sign him. Playoffs would be nice, and he’s a big part of the team, but is Mateychuk ready? If he is, just give him those minutes. If he’s not, then Christiansen gets the chance. I’m not in favor of turning down a first round pick for an at best first round exit team.

I may have posted this before, but...

I know there's a popular and seemingly obvious bent toward trading any player you're not planning to bring back or who appears to be a long-shot to sign to a new deal. The whole maximizing assets and getting value and what have you. But there is also value in what the player brings for the period of time he remains on your team after the deadline. So to me, that's the decision Waddell and Co. have to make.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I may have posted this before, but...

I know there's a popular and seemingly obvious bent toward trading any player you're not planning to bring back or who appears to be a long-shot to sign to a new deal. The whole maximizing assets and getting value and what have you. But there is also value in what the player brings for the period of time he remains on your team after the deadline. So to me, that's the decision Waddell and Co. have to make.

Would totally agree with you if the upside of this team was bigger than a first round exit. Trading Provorov would probably piss off the room. But sometimes you have to make hard decisions like that, and maybe the hard decision is the exact opposite and they keep him instead. I know this draft isn’t very good, but if you can get a first for him Id do it

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Would totally agree with you if the upside of this team was bigger than a first round exit. Trading Provorov would probably piss off the room. But sometimes you have to make hard decisions like that, and maybe the hard decision is the exact opposite and they keep him instead. I know this draft isn’t very good, but if you can get a first for him I don’t see why you wouldn’t do it.

I didn't say I wouldn't trade Provorov or that Waddell shouldn't. I just said there are multiple ways to determine value and that they will have to pick one.

 

[ColumbusTrill]

I think I’d rather our team get the playoff experience, even if we get swept, than another late first round pick

 

[stevo61]

Would totally agree with you if the upside of this team was bigger than a first round exit. Trading Provorov would probably piss off the room. But sometimes you have to make hard decisions like that, and maybe the hard decision is the exact opposite and they keep him instead. I know this draft isn’t very good, but if you can get a first for him Id do it

Making the playoffs with a young team that's gone through so much would have significant upside. Ask Buffalo if they'd trade a pick to make the playoffs

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Making the playoffs with a young team that's gone through so much would have significant upside. Ask Buffalo if they'd trade a pick to make the playoffs

Yes I would take that if it was guaranteed or likely.

However, that isn’t the case. I’m not punting on the season but I am trying to do what’s best for the future.

(Also, I would sign Provorov rather than trade him personally. But if him walking or trading him are the only options, I’m taking trade)

 

[EspenK]

I think it depends on the return. If someone offers a 26 or 27 1st rounder and that pick is likely to be no worse than say 16th I'd be much more in favor of that than a late 20 pick in 2025.

That being said I understand the value of making/experiencing the playoffs but I'm with CBJ8 that a very likely 1st round exit (assuming we make the playogffs)makes it imperative that the return be pretty damn good.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Would totally agree with you if the upside of this team was bigger than a first round exit. Trading Provorov would probably piss off the room. But sometimes you have to make hard decisions like that, and maybe the hard decision is the exact opposite and they keep him instead. I know this draft isn’t very good, but if you can get a first for him Id do it

The upside of this team is overachieving and just making the playoffs. We were expected to be the bottom of the barrel this year.

You can't Tonya Harding this team this year to kill any momentum by trading away a key guy for a mystery pick who might never amount to anything in is NHL career. Maybe in other years you can but I want this team to ride their momentum and set the basis for the future.

Mateychuk may be the long term solution but he is not this year and loosing Provorov leave a huge gap in this current lineup that currently includes Mateychuk. Christiansen played under 10 minutes last night so I don't believe he is an answer

 

[CBJWerenski8]

The upside of this team is overachieving and just making the playoffs. We were expected to be the bottom of the barrel this year.

You can't Tonya Harding this team this year to kill any momentum by trading away a key guy for a mystery pick who might never amount to anything in is NHL career. Maybe in other years you can but I want this team to ride their momentum and set the basis for the future.

Mateychuk may be the long term solution but he is not this year and loosing Provorov leave a huge gap in this current lineup that currently includes Mateychuk. Christiansen played under 10 minutes last night so I don't believe he is an answer

I’m more in favor of acquiring the pick to use in a trade this summer. Same with the Wild pick, and maybe even ours too. Although I have nothing against making multiple picks in the first round either, but I’d rather add to the roster if possible.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

I am traditionally loathe to let any asset walk for nothing and I've never cared much for Provorov as a player or person BUT it's got to be a severe overpay for me to move him and/or you better be pretty confident in your replacement plan because losing him on the ice is likely going to hurt performance.

This organization already has a lot of good, promising youth and while you always have to keep an eye on that future, I think this team making a real playoff push is more valuable than getting another 1st round pick.

I've said this elsewhere but this is a very young team coming into the season off an unimaginable trauma. Common pick to be among the worst if not dead last teams in the league. They're legit in the fight in a way few could have predicted. And if they ultimately come up short, so be it. But I'd really hate to see the rug pulled out from under them given what they've been through and what they've done to date.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I am traditionally loathe to let any asset walk for nothing and I've never cared much for Provorov as a player or person BUT it's got to be a severe overpay for me to move him and/or you better be pretty confident in your replacement plan because losing him on the ice is likely going to hurt performance.

This organization already has a lot of good, promising youth and while you always have to keep an eye on that future, I think this team making a real playoff push is more valuable than getting another 1st round pick.

I've said this elsewhere but this is a very young team coming into the season off an unimaginable trauma. Common pick to be among the worst if not dead last teams in the league. They're legit in the fight in a way few could have predicted. And if they ultimately come up short, so be it. But I'd really hate to see the rug pulled out from under them given what they've been through and what they've done to date.

 

[Xoggz22]

To me, it looks like he’s gone in the summer. And depending on how these final pre deadline games go (especially the Detroit ones) decides whether or not we shop him. And even if they go well they may sell him anyway.

I just dont' see them letting him walk for nothing. It sucks but you still have to think big picture at this stage. That's my opinion. it would be different, to me, if this team was already a playoff team and felt that had a chance to go deep. I just don't see it. If so, you have to move him, as much as that sucks.

 

[Xoggz22]

I'm starting to get a little worried about Fabbro and Olivier myself. I'm hoping we get some news soon so it's less to worry about, but I think they are both really good pieces for the now and the future. And they shouldn't break the bank or extend term too long...

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Yes I would take that if it was guaranteed or likely.

However, that isn’t the case. I’m not punting on the season but I am trying to do what’s best for the future.

(Also, I would sign Provorov rather than trade him personally. But if him walking or trading him are the only options, I’m taking trade)

If he's not signed before the deadline but hasn't ruled out an extension, are you trading him?