Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose Game 1: 4-2

[notbias]

blindly using data can lead to rally werid results. correlation does not equal causation.

looking at data without context is not ideal. if you don't care about context when looking at data then we approach data differently

You stated they had more ozone time, I am just asking to prove it, what context is there?

 

[Rob Brown]

At least we didn’t lose the way Dallas is losing to the Kraken.

The pressure the Leafs put on was very encouraging… gonna be hard for Bobrovsky to stop that over a whole series.

Honestly very unlucky that even one didn’t go in at the end there. Several super close chances that nearly went in.

 

[definedMF]

Not totally upset since we were visibly better than them for id say 50-60% of the game. Had better chances but couldn't convert, and Bob goalied us too.

Keep at it and clean it up defensively, we'll be fine.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

For all the big hits we landed on Tkachuk he still finished with 3 assists and an xGF% of 69.25%. Gotta be way better than just occasionally catching him in open ice.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

You can't use all-situation data in a game we only had 2 penalty minutes. Don't troll now

 

[BTP]

That loss gave me more confidence going forward than a few wins did last series.

We will be fine. Leafs in 6.

Also, go 11-7. Play our big guys more minutes. Add more speed into the line up.

 

[Nineteen67]

Apparently you didn’t watch the game. Matthews had a ton of scoring chances throughout the game.

For e.g., Matthews had a breakaway and one right down Broadway on the PP right after he went to the bench to get a new stick, and Bobo made two great saves.

 

[notbias]

we got outchanced and outshot in the 3rd on 5on5 hockey man. This is specially bad since we were chasing the game. We never had the lead in the entire game

here is a quick graphic

View attachment 702087

why do you keep cutting off the last part of this? Here I will help you

 

[robertmac43]

The good: We played fine, looked dangerous, and will definitely continue to get chances

The bad: Despite looking good we lost the game through letting in multiple inopportune goals.

The ugly: Gio looks like he is slowing down at a rapid pace. Don't know if he is the guy right now and I hate saying that.

 

[Stephen]

This is the thing that has bugged me most of the playoffs so far.. where is the extra gear? The Leafs have played most of the playoffs like is is a mid-season nothing game. They refuse to make simple plays offensively when half their goals in the playoffs have been from throwing it at the net and cleaning up the garbage. They refuse to make simple plays to clear their own zone when they are in trouble or to prevent it. They lose soooo many loose pucks and board battles. They keep giving up preventable late goals.

Where is the intensity? Or even desperation when they are behind? The drive? Nylander literally skated away from an all alone chance that he created while down by a goal tonight.

I'm really confident the Leafs can beat Florida but they have coasted through on luck up until now.

When are they going to really show up for the playoffs?

I don't know if we are a team that has that high octane gear, the more I think about it. They can bring it in a short spurt for a 6 on 5 style siege but they don't necessarily go full throttle the way Colorado did last year or Florida is trying to.

If they can create that mid tempo, regular season environment, keep possession, reload, reload and get scoring chances and dictate that play style to Florida, I'd say they're in the drivers seat. They just need to score actual goals now. Get greasier in front of the net and throw some cold water on a hot goalie. You don't just play a hot goalie straight. You have to get under his skin, take up his space so he can't see or telescope out without being right up against a crowd. Don't let him feel comfortable in his crease. Break down his cross crease protection.

 

[PromisedLand]

why do you keep cutting off the last part of this? Here I will help you

View attachment 702093

xGF is a stupid analytic -> "expected" bullshit versus actual event. what do you prefer?

yea.. never mind I am not having this conversation with someone who looks at data without context

 

[TMLeafer]

I had to skip through parts of the game, but thought it was a pretty good effort.

Nice work to tie it up in the 2nd. Not sure what kind of read McCabe and Brodie were thinking with their decisions on that go ahead breakaway goal. Bit of a headscratcher.

PP has to be more lethal for sure.

Some huge hits this game.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

For all the big hits we landed on Tkachuk he still finished with 3 assists and an xGF% of 69.25%. Gotta be way better than just occasionally catching him in open ice.

Nylander 70% xGF in line with what I saw in period 1 and 3 too.

Too bad he didn't get points.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Apparently you didn’t watch the game. Matthews had a ton of scoring chances throughout the game.

Yes he did, and Bob didn't have to make a tough stop on any of them.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Yes he did, and Bob didn't have to make a tough stop on any of them.

Matthews got robbed at least twice

 

[Gallagbi]

we got outchanced and outshot in the 3rd on 5on5 hockey man. This is specially bad since we were chasing the game. We never had the lead in the entire game

here is a quick graphic

View attachment 702087

So the period we made most of the changes you wanted wasnt as effective as the others. Its when we saw more shuffling of lines, pairings and uneven line distribution

I dont love all Keefe's decision, but theres a lot of highly questionable logic in your post here and a lot of the fatal flaws tonight werent driven by structural or line choices.

 

[robertmac43]

Maurice posturing with the officials:

 

[notbias]

xGF is a stupid analytic -> "expected" bullshit versus actual event. what do you prefer?

yea.. never mind I am not having this conversation with someone who looks at data without context

expected goals is them trying to put context on chances...

but yes, I am ignoring context haha

 

[Nineteen67]

That loss gave me more confidence going forward than a few wins did last series.

We will be fine. Leafs in 6.

Also, go 11-7. Play our big guys more minutes. Add more speed into the line up.

I was leaning Florida before the game because the series has that O’Dog Carolina feel to it, now I’m more convinced Florida wins in 6.

 

[PromisedLand]

So the period we made most of the changes you wanted wasnt as effective as the others

so you basically want people to praise the coach whatever the outcome eh?

 

[Torontonian]

Not feeling to bad about this, just puts the pressure on us to win the next game and split at home. Very leaflike how we lost though, in the playoffs to boot to make it even worse.

1. Powerplay and team needs to be more opportunistic. Team had chances at the start of the game with two power plays and chances to really take momentum in the game and failed to do so, going 0-3 on the PP will cost you. Needed more from Willy

2. Coaching/defensive needs to be improved, and fast. Going on to game 7 in the playoffs and we haven't locked it down in one game, leading only 20% of the time in games isn't a good way of trying to win. Far too many open chances/breakaways/2on1 given up.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Bottom line is we were at best tied in most categories.


We are supposed to be better team and are the better team so the team deserves no excuses.


Be better.

 

[sxvnert]

Nylander literally skated away from an all alone chance that he created while down by a goal tonight.

I expect that type of play from Kerfoot not Willy.

 

[PromisedLand]

expected goals is them trying to put context on chances...

but yes, I am ignoring context haha

This is the last post I am gong to post on this subject because life is short and I really and absolutely detest people claiming to be einstein without understanding the math.

Google: Anscombe's quartet; then look at the equation for xGF doesn't matter who is calculating. If you still think that is meaningful i.e. "expected" bullshit versus actual event taking place then you can be happy in your world and stop bugging me.

 

[BTP]

I was leaning Florida before the game because the series has that O’Dog Carolina feel to it, now I’m more convinced Florida wins in 6.

We win that 8-4 if Bob isn't in beast mode.

We will break him as the series goes forward. Leafs in 6