Confirmed with Link: Leafs go 4-4-1 in expansion, Dermott, Kerfoot, McCann, exposed

[4thline]

I think the most plausible scenario here is the Leafs are going to lose McCann and it's going to be branded as the Leafs engineering things in a way where we "only" lost Hallander and a 7th, leaving Kerfoot alone.

Otherwise if there was a side deal was in place with Seattle, they wouldn't need to even protect Holl. Just roll with a standard 7-3-1 stance with McCann under protection and Kerfoot and Holl exposed. Kerfoot gets taken per the agreement in place.

However all this shakes out, I expect Hallander to be a decent prospect for Pitt, McCann to be a versatile player in Seattle and whatever we're left with will be more of the same.

This is a bit too much galaxy brain action for me.

Flawed assumption, the price (and indeed willingness) to take a given player depends on what else is available.

 

[Stephen]

At the end of the day you have 40 million tied up in 4 guys.
You should be able to lose anyone of Holl,Dermott,Kerfoot or new guy and survive.

If you can’t, if you are screaming about depth, if you’re worried you have no quality, no jam, nobody whatever, you are built wrong.

WRONG.

I don't get this management's moaning and groaning about pandemic flat cap reality, like "we didn't see this coming." No one will blame you for that, but your inability to make adjustments in the new reality? That's all on you.

 

[Stephen]

Flawed assumption, the price (and indeed willingness) to take a given player depends on what else is available.

Unless there's a secret handshake deal in place for Seattle to take Kerfoot under any circumstances - McCann is a more compelling pick in almost every single way.

 

[Stonehands1990]

If we traded for McCann just to lose him at the expansion draft that's a puzzling move

I thought so also but in a nutshell it means we only lost Hallander to expansion and kept every other roster player

 

[Superstar]

The thing is that Holl isn't that good. He isn't terrible but he's a 30 year old passable 4 with a good partner.

Liljegren is 8 years younger and trending the same way as Shea Theodore and Jake Bean. You have to let him play in the NHL eventually or what's the point in developing players?

He was great at 5 on 5 in his one chance with Muzzin and I think we need to give that pair a chance to work. You can always bring in depth guys who can play 14-16 minutes and PK, but we need to see what he has this year.

We know what Holl is...we still don't know what Lilly is...Holl is not a great d man, but we know he could play in the top 4 in the NHL, is a RHD and cannot be easily replaced at his cap hit whether we like him or not. The Leafs could still insert Lilly in the line-up during the regular season as he develops into a bonafide NHL d man.

 

[4thline]

Unless there's a secret handshake deal in place for Seattle to take Kerfoot under any circumstances - McCann is a more compelling pick in almost every single way.

"under any circumstances" would likely be under the pre-trade assumption that Holl would be protected, and could easily unravel if the Leafs abused that understanding. They are intimately aware of however Hakstol feels about any player the roster.

I agree that McCann is the more compelling pick, but it's a smaller gap between them than either of them and a 6'5 mobile RHD that the receiving HC is comfortable playing 20+ min a night with heavy pk.

 

[LeafGrief]

If they take McCann I'm laughing. Sure, he's a good player and we got him for dirt cheap. But if you told me a week ago that we'd give up Filip Hallander and a 7th in the expansion draft and that was it, I think almost every single one of us would have taken that and run.

Glad we're protecting Holl. A 2nd pairing defenseman making 2m/yr is a hugely valuable asset. Letting him go never made sense.

 

[Magic Man]

If they take McCann I'm laughing. Sure, he's a good player and we got him for dirt cheap. But if you told me a week ago that we'd give up Filip Hallander and a 7th in the expansion draft and that was it, I think almost every single one of us would have taken that and run.

Glad we're protecting Holl. A 2nd pairing defenseman making 2m/yr is a hugely valuable asset. Letting him go never made sense.

I wanted to lose Kerfoot's cap hit. This isn't a better option.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I don't get this management's moaning and groaning about pandemic flat cap reality, like "we didn't see this coming." No one will blame you for that, but your inability to make adjustments in the new reality? That's all on you.

That's the part that makes me sick. Like you said...nobody saw this coming yet other teams are adjusting to it like they have to. Does Dubas think we won't forgive him?

 

[kb]

That seems to be the source for a lot of people's discontent.

And their intentional "misunderstanding".

 

[FraumBallard]

not to mention the playoffs, where the Leafs have given up the 3rd fewest goals against over the last 2 years. Holl getting 22 minutes per game is a big reason for it

Ya.
How did we do in the playoffs?
Oh.
Right.
Again.
Lets stay with that.
Can’t fire Shanahan/Wonder Boy /Keefe fast enough.
Useless stats mean nothing.
Winning in the playoffs ( 4 rounds ) means everything.

 

[080]

I don't get this management's moaning and groaning about pandemic flat cap reality, like "we didn't see this coming." No one will blame you for that, but your inability to make adjustments in the new reality? That's all on you.

How do you make an adjustment when you're expecting to have 5+ more million to spend on players and you don't? They have 40 million committed to the big four and, in my opinion, have done a decent job shaping the rest of the roster with limited cap space. While this may be a flawed method (and I'm starting to lean towards it being flawed) you can't really fault the way management has maneuvered around the cap so far.

If by 'adjust' you mean trading one of the core/expensive forwards then far enough but that might be on the horizon if we have another shitty playoff run.

 

[Mess]

Who knows maybe the Kraken will sign Hyman and the that will be the player the lose in the expansion draft.

What are the rules regarding Seattle signing a free agent before the draft?

From Sunday to July 21, the Kraken have an exclusive negotiating window with any pending free agents not protected by the other 30 teams. If Seattle signs one of these players, it counts as their selection from that club. And if Seattle signs that player to a deal before free agency begins on July 28, then the Kraken can offer an eight-year max extension. After that, Seattle can only give out seven-year deals this summer.

 

[Stephen]

If they take McCann I'm laughing. Sure, he's a good player and we got him for dirt cheap. But if you told me a week ago that we'd give up Filip Hallander and a 7th in the expansion draft and that was it, I think almost every single one of us would have taken that and run.

Glad we're protecting Holl. A 2nd pairing defenseman making 2m/yr is a hugely valuable asset. Letting him go never made sense.

That's a bit of a spin.

For one thing, Hallander is a recent second round pick and someone the Leafs "loved" in his draft year, and some have been penciling him in for a lengthier audition this fall as recently as 48 hours ago, so we need to move off the idea that Hallander is a disposable nothing piece.

The second one is there's a reality where Toronto could have protected McCann AND Kerfoot and solidified their middle six, top nine while having to find a Holl replacement which isn't impossible in a flat cap world. You can even make the argument that Holl ought to be upgraded from because he's basically just a passable warm body who plays with Muzzin.

 

[FraumBallard]

Evidence for this is what, exactly?

WATCHING.

 

[Stephen]

How do you make an adjustment when you're expecting to have 5+ more million to spend on players and you don't? They have 40 million committed to the big four and, in my opinion, have done a decent job shaping the rest of the roster with limited cap space. While this may be a flawed method (and I'm starting to lean towards it being flawed) you can't really fault the way management has maneuvered around the cap so far.

If by 'adjust' you mean trading one of the core/expensive forwards then far enough but that might be on the horizon if we have another shitty playoff run.

I'm not saying there should be a mandate in place to blow up the Big 4, but they should at least explore the option on Marner in a hockey deal and also see if they could make Tavares go away. In a world where Carey Price can be left unprotected, I think you'd at least have to do some homework on JT91.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Dermott was a healthy scratch at points last year and the leafs played him in a way that showed pretty much no trust in him.

For Seattle it would have largely have been a "pick your poison" between Dermott and Kerfoot.

Good thing Dubas made the decision very easy for them. They'll take McCann in a heartbeat.

I don't understand any of this at all.

It is not surprising that you don't understand. It is easy for most.

 

[Leaf Fans]

An even better case to FIRE DUBAS.

bigger than nothing?

 

[Leaf Fans]

A lot of fans are confused why we traded for McCann only to expose him in order to prevent losing Kerfoot/Dermott. I still can't make sense of it.

We could still have lost Kerfoot or Dermott.

 

[Stephen]

Evidence for this is what, exactly?

Do we really need to boost the Canadian Division up to elevate Toronto's positives?

 

[Mess]

That's a bit of a spin.

For one thing, Hallander is a recent second round pick and someone the Leafs "loved" in his draft year, and some have been penciling him in for a lengthier audition this fall as recently as 48 hours ago, so we need to move off the idea that Hallander is a disposable nothing piece.

The second one is there's a reality where Toronto could have protected McCann AND Kerfoot and solidified their middle six, top nine while having to find a Holl replacement which isn't impossible in a flat cap world. You can even make the argument that Holl ought to be upgraded from because he's basically just a passable warm body who plays with Muzzin.

27 teams went 7-3-1 protecting 11 players and only 3 teams went 4-4-1 and protected only 9 and Leafs were one because they believed their 4th Dman Holl was too valuable that they gave up two protection spots and well as risked other assets.

Most teams clearly believed their #4 Dman was replaceable. Its remarkable how much value Leafs placed value on a that player and that position of 2nd pairing RHD.

Heck if the Leafs re-signed Bogosian and played him with Muzzin is there really that much of a decline?

 

[FraumBallard]

Why the Leafs exposed Alex Kerfoot and Jared McCann to Seattle in the expansion draft - The Athletic

As expected, Kyle Dubas’ Leafs protected eight skaters and one goaltender. Justin Holl was protected while both Alex Kerfoot and the newly acquired Jared McCann were exposed to the Kraken.

The Leafs knew coming in they were bound to lose Kerfoot and decided to prepare themselves for that inevitability by dealing for insurance in McCann. Now, they leave it up to Seattle GM Ron Francis to decide if Kerfoot is still his guy or whether he prefers the younger McCann instead.

Either way, the Leafs will have as many useful forwards on the roster as they did prior to the weekend.

Francis might have come away with players both had the Leafs not nabbed McCann away from the Penguins on Saturday.

Is it possible the Leafs will work out a side trade with Seattle to ensure that Kerfoot is their pick? Maybe, though increasingly it seems unlikely. The Kraken have set a very high price in trades of that kind.

Rather, it sounds like the Leafs are comfortable, now that they have McCann, living with whatever Francis decides.

If Seattle takes Kerfoot, then the Leafs have insured themselves with McCann, who could be their third-line centre next season. If Francis opts for McCann, the Leafs still have Kerfoot (though I’d argue he belongs on the wing moving forward and at centre only in the case of injury).

It may seem odd to trade for McCann, only to then leave him exposed. But it’s not as if the Leafs paid a high price to acquire him.

The cost: A pick in the last round of the draft two years from now (2023) and Filip Hållander, who was unlikely to play for the Leafs next year and probably maxes out as a third liner in the NHL.

While there was some thought that maybe McCann’s acquisition would lead the Leafs to the 7-3-1 protection model, in the end, Holl’s value won out. The front office knew it wouldn’t have been possible to find a 20-minute-a-night No. 4 defenceman making $2 million or less if Holl was exposed and claimed by Seattle.

David Savard and Alec Martinez, for instance, will likely draw double that price in free agency later this month.

Does Jake Muzzin make Holl better, helping him survive against the toughest competition in the league? Absolutely. That’s part of why the Leafs pay Muzzin what they do. But it’s not as if they could stick anyone in that spot and expect similar results.

Holl doesn’t even belong in the same league as Savard and Martinez , also ; Holl is definitely not a #4.
#8 maybe.
He is not good.

 

[Stephen]

Where does Justin Holl fit on a legitimate contending team?

Second pairing in a pinch but comfortably on a third pairing. The thing is Justin Holl is a good stable defenseman with good mobility and excellent wing span, but seems like a unicorn on a team that never seems to value big wing span defensemen and always used to be forced to use Martin Marincin in a jam.

 

[FraumBallard]

27 teams went 7-3-1 protecting 11 players and only 3 teams went 4-4-1 and protected only 9 and Leafs were one because they believed their 4th Dman Holl was too valuable that they gave up two protection spots and well as risked other assets.

Most teams clearly believed their #4 Dman was replaceable.

Heck is the Leafs re-signed Bogosian and played him with Muzzin is there really that much of a decline?

Bogosian played more minutes winning a Cup in T.B. and played with Hedman a good bit.
I would much prefer Bogo over Holl any day.
You make a great point.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

Everyone was calling Justin Holl "Hollstar" when he shutdown Mcdavid and now he is an AHL defenseman?

He's more than capable to log big minutes and is 2 million dollars. That doesn't grow on trees.

Last years Leafs team was the best we have seen defensively in years and he was a big part. Mcann hasn't even played a game with us. Wether him or Kerfoot or Dermott go they can all be replaced easier than Holl.