Confirmed with Link: Leafs go 4-4-1 in expansion, Dermott, Kerfoot, McCann, exposed

[Leaf Fans]

If Seatle takes Kerfoot that 100% means that Dubas had some deal in place.

Look how easy this decision is.

Player A: 26 years old. Paced for 11 goals/30 points over 82 last year. 3.5 mil aav.

Player B: 25 years old. Paced for 26 goals/60 points over 82 last year. 2.9 mil aav.

It's no contest.

They could take a defenseman. Also, Kerfoot has 14 points in 30 playoff games and 6 in 7 last season while McCann has 3 in 12. 0 goals for a "shooter"

 

[Dayjobdave]

Everyone was calling Justin Holl "Hollstar" when he shutdown Mcdavid and now he is an AHL defenseman?

He's more than capable to log big minutes and is 2 million dollars. That doesn't grow on trees.

Last years Leafs team was the best we have seen defensively in years and he was a big part. Mcann hasn't even played a game with us. Wether him or Kerfoot or Dermott go they can all be replaced easier than Holl.

this is completely true.

The Leafs have effectively come up with a solution to Kerfoot being picked in the last 24 hours. that's pretty good. I hope McCann doesn't get picked, but if he does, I get it that this was a defensive move to at least keep Kerfoot. Let's see what happens.

 

[Stephen]

Everyone was calling Justin Holl "Hollstar" when he shutdown Mcdavid and now he is an AHL defenseman?

He's more than capable to log big minutes and is 2 million dollars. That doesn't grow on trees.

Last years Leafs team was the best we have seen defensively in years and he was a big part. Mcann hasn't even played a game with us. Wether him or Kerfoot or Dermott go they can all be replaced easier than Holl.

The thing is serviceable big wingspan defensemen of various quality are moved in this league on a pretty regular basis but the reason why Justin Holl seems like such a rare asset is because our brain trust doesn't spend a lot of time or effort in the defenseman market.

-David Savard was acquired at the deadline for the low low sticker price of a Nick Foligno.
-Devon Toews was traded last summer for 2x 2nd round picks and is now firmly entrenched in Colorado's Top 3.
-Jamie Oleksiak was acquired by Dallas for a 4th round pick a year before Dallas went on their finals run.
-Joel Edmundson was acquired from St. Louis by Montreal for a 5th round pick (and re-signed) last summer.
-Hadyn Fleury (project prospect and former first rounder) was acquired for next to nothing by Anaheim at the deadline.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Trading for McCann only to lose him so we can keep Kerfoot makes no sense to me. I’d much rather McCann.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Can McCann Kerfoot and Dermott come out and say they all possibly need knee surgery?

 

[kb]

& Kerfoot if that is their pick.

The price of McCann is essentially Kerfoot, Hallander and 7th.

No, it isn't.

The acquisition of McCann cost Hallander and a 7th. Transaction over.

Now comes the Expansion Draft. Completely separate, not tied to the previous one.

 

[ottomaddox]

I don't mind Holl. It won't be the worst thing that he's not exposed. I think he's ok at #4 when Muzzin is healthy. Not so great at #4 when Muzzin is injured. He's certainly not an AHL D though. That's just wild.

 

[Smif]

That's the part that makes me sick. Like you said...nobody saw this coming yet other teams are adjusting to it like they have to. Does Dubas think we won't forgive him?

Timing was different for every team though, the Islanders for example signing Barzal during the flat cap is a big advantage over signing our big RFA's prior to knowing a flat cap was coming. Huge advantage for some teams.

With that being said, I also feel Dubas had a great offseason last year. Moved out some wing depth and addressed the defense in a major way and tried to add some jam which was kinda a bust.

 

[TheProspector]

If we traded for McCann just to lose him at the expansion draft that's a puzzling move

It's genius, actually. It means we got to keep every roster player for the cost of a 7th and a pretty low value prospect.

 

[Gallagbi]

27 teams went 7-3-1 protecting 11 players and only 3 teams went 4-4-1 and protected only 9 and Leafs were one because they believed their 4th Dman Holl was too valuable that they gave up two protection spots and well as risked other assets.

Most teams clearly believed their #4 Dman was replaceable. Its remarkable how much value Leafs placed value on a that player and that position of 2nd pairing RHD.

Heck if the Leafs re-signed Bogosian and played him with Muzzin is there really that much of a decline?

What's that comically overused quote you force down this boards throat ad nauseum?

Got it! Never say never to a Paul Maurice coached team. Shit not that one. Oh yeah! Good teams build from the net out.

Weird to criticize prioritizing defensemen when that is basically your mantra.

 

[deprw]

I'm not saying there should be a mandate in place to blow up the Big 4, but they should at least explore the option on Marner in a hockey deal and also see if they could make Tavares go away. In a world where Carey Price can be left unprotected, I think you'd at least have to do some homework on JT91.

Would we know about this discussions? It's impossible to know, so it's hard to say that we haven't explored different options. I think Seattle is one option for Marner trade and could assume that we might be discussing about different scenarios. If not about Marner but in overall at least.

The thing is serviceable big wingspan defensemen of various quality are moved in this league on a pretty regular basis but the reason why Justin Holl seems like such a rare asset is because our brain trust doesn't spend a lot of time or effort in the defenseman market.

-David Savard was acquired at the deadline for the low low sticker price of a Nick Foligno.
-Devon Toews was traded last summer for 2x 2nd round picks and is now firmly entrenched in Colorado's Top 3.
-Jamie Oleksiak was acquired by Dallas for a 4th round pick a year before Dallas went on their finals run.
-Joel Edmundson was acquired from St. Louis by Montreal for a 5th round pick (and re-signed) last summer.
-Hadyn Fleury (project prospect and former first rounder) was acquired for next to nothing by Anaheim at the deadline.

We have been searching those RHDs since start of the rebuild, if it would be that easy I think there wouldn't have been problems at all, but always has been until Holl emerged. You listed five players and we have fantasized about Josh Manson for years. In real life David Savard was expensive asset until this years deadline. Toews emerged trough AHL as 25yo and was bit of a wild card. In Oleksiak and Edmunson their teams stumbled on those players right time. Like we did with Holl. We have tried UFA routes, we have signed lefties like Hainsey, we have went to europe (Oz and Lehtonen as lefty).

Thing is that if we lose Holl in expansion draft we have one or two shots for suitable players and that's it, then you have to overpay. I think Dubas knows how much top4 RHD costs in the market right now. His discussing with other GMs daily. Bogosian is option @Mess likes to point out, but if he wants to move to States it's no go since his UFA.

I wouldn't be surprised if Holl could elevate his game a bit more here. His been late bloomer and earned his place in every league trough hard work and ability to adapt and learn. I'd count that he has smarts and good head on shoulders, so I would be hesitant to expose him. I think we could get more for Holl than McCann, Kerfoot or Dermott on trade market.

 

[hamzarocks]

It's genius, actually. It means we got to keep every roster player for the cost of a 7th and a pretty low value prospect.

It is not genius, it's following through and sticking with players he is comfortable with. Hallinder was not a low-value prospect, he was right there in our second group of prospects after the big four (Kokkonen, Hirvonen, Abramov, and him) . His value is a 2nd round pick with him being closer to the NHL than any player we take in 2021 or 2022 drafts.

Keeping every roster player is the problem. We have an overrated roster from the top on down. We aren't moving the big 4 so they will stay. Being able to keep 3 of the 5 most mediocre players on our roster (Kerfoot, Dermott, Holl, Engvall, and Mikheyev) is no proud accomplishment and only reinforces Dubas is primed to prove his selection of talent can win despite 2 straight repeated failures with these guys

McCann is a better player and asset than any of the guys we would keep in favor of him. Letting him go so Dubas can protect his guys is a sign of a stubborn GM

 

[Funk21]

It is not genius, it's following through and sticking with players he is comfortable with. Hallinder was not a low-value prospect, he was right there in our second group of prospects after the big four (Kokkonen, Hirvonen, Abramov, and him) . His value is a 2nd round pick with him being closer to the NHL than any player we take in 2021 or 2022 drafts.

Keeping every roster player is the problem. We have an overrated roster from the top on down. We aren't moving the big 4 so they will stay. Being able to keep 3 of the 5 most mediocre players on our roster (Kerfoot, Dermott, Holl, Engvall, and Mikheyev) is no proud accomplishment and only reinforces Dubas is primed to prove his selection of talent can win despite 2 straight repeated failures with these guys

McCann is a better player and asset than any of the guys we would keep in favor of him. Letting him go so Dubas can protect his guys is a sign of a stubborn GM

Well said. Personally I would have rather lost Kerfoot, kept Hallander and the 7th and used the extra cap space to get a player like McCann or Wennberg as a UFA. If we lose McCann in the expansion draft it’s bad asset management. Kerfoot is completely replaceable, so is Dermott.

 

[Dave92]

 

[New Liskeard]

That’s what I heard as well. I doubt Seattle picks any of Weber, Subban, Klefbom, or Giordano.

That leaves guys like Fleury, Dermott, Dunn, DeMelo, Bean, Butcher, and De Haan.

There isn’t many more notable names available on the blue line. The fact that Dermott can play either side is a huge bonus as well.

Then on the forwards end there’s guys like Tarasenko, Duchene, Palat or Killorn, Domi, Drouin, etc.

Seattle would be absolutely foolish to not pick Gio. Top pairing D, former captain and could be traded at the deadline if needed. Maybe the Kraken do have a deal in place with the Leafs, giving the Leafs a pick for acquiring a player they favour in McCann.

 

[Torontonian]

Dermott getting taken by Seattle wouldn't be awful in this situation. Leafs would keep Kerfoot and McCann. I'm not sure what Francis has in store for his club, he said the most valuable thing is cap space so I am wondering if he try's to draft a roster that isn't close to the ceiling and then try to be able to absorb some bad contracts for good prospects/picks. Or possbily taking a player like Tarensenko for a team and then flipping him at 50% retained at a 3.75m cap hit.

There's a lot of unknowns and I would guess conversations happening with Seattle that we don't know about.

 

[TMLAM34]

Seattle would be absolutely foolish to not pick Gio. Top pairing D, former captain and could be traded at the deadline if needed. Maybe the Kraken do have a deal in place with the Leafs, giving the Leafs a pick for acquiring a player they favour in McCann.

He’s 37, almost 7 million and has a modified NTC for the year. I guess Calgary doesn’t really have much else to select lol

 

[TimeZone]

If they take McCann I'm laughing. Sure, he's a good player and we got him for dirt cheap. But if you told me a week ago that we'd give up Filip Hallander and a 7th in the expansion draft and that was it, I think almost every single one of us would have taken that and run.

Glad we're protecting Holl. A 2nd pairing defenseman making 2m/yr is a hugely valuable asset. Letting him go never made sense.

You're laughing that we traded for a legit top six forward and are likely about to lose him?

Lol ok.

 

[LaPlante94]

Last two years:

Muzzin W/ Holl: 56.7gf%, 57.2xgf%
Muzzin w/o Holl: 53.2gf%, 51.4xgf%

Much better with Holl than without.

I'm gonna post something from an article because these numbers you post seem to be a little inflated from his hot start.

"Here’s the thing though: Justin Holl has been less than stellar since the calendar turned to February. The cannon that Holl was shot out of has seemingly fizzled in a big way, and it’s not just the recent play of Holl that might be cause for concern. "

"Since February 1st of this year, a 37-game stretch, Justin Holl has been one of the Maple Leafs’ weakest links on the back end by both the eye test and the advanced numbers. Over that period, Holl has been outpaced by opponents in shot share (48.8%), shot attempt share (48.7%), and has gotten rocked with just 44% of goals when he is on the ice being for the Toronto Maple Leafs. There is the caveat that he has also received a paltry .902 save percentage from his goalies during this same period, but he certainly is not helping the cause with some questionable decision-making."

"At this point, Holl is dead last amongst Leafs defensemen by expected goals percentage and is dragging his partner down in the process. Jake Muzzin, who Justin Holl has seen the most ice time together with of all teammates, has far stronger numbers away from Holl than when paired with him. The magic of this early season has clearly worn off."

I even decided to go on Natural Stat Trick to do a little research myself and see if what this guy was saying was true and looking at the 2 stats you posted gf% and xgf% it clearly shows Holl struggles without Muzzin while Muzzin gets much better. These are stats from the regular season. Playoffs aren't much different except Holls GF% goes up while xGF% goes down and for Muzzin it's the opposite where his GF% goes down but his xGF% goes up. I even read somewhere else that Holls influence on that pair comes from the offensive side but that he also benefits from playing with our teams offence.

Holl and Muzzin together- GF% 58.33 xGF% 55.62

Holl without Muzzin- GF% 35.29 xGF% 51.18

Muzzin without Holl - GF% 71.43 xGF% 61.19

Leafs with both off the ice- GF% 59.68 xGF% 54.76

Not saying he's the worst defenceman out there and even in this article they say that but we got Liljegren who is ready for the shot and if that doesn't work out we got Dermott who could easily fill that hole if need be. Our problem the last 2 years was we couldn't score and then we bring in McCann who should be able to help us out get some scoring from our 3rd line and now we have a chance of losing him if Dubas doesn't have a deal in place. We don't lose McCann we lose Kerfoot for nothing when theres a trade market out there for him where we could've got picks or something in return. So i'm gonna stick with the argument that exposing Kerfoot or McCann to protect Holl wasn't the smartest of ideas. Obviously none of this means nothing if Dubas has deals already set in place.

 

[Gallagbi]

Seattle would be absolutely foolish to not pick Gio. Top pairing D, former captain and could be traded at the deadline if needed. Maybe the Kraken do have a deal in place with the Leafs, giving the Leafs a pick for acquiring a player they favour in McCann.

Calgary's other options are garbage as well, so I can't see them keeping Gio without a bug sweetener.

Pretty sure it's basically Gio, Lucic or Brett Ritchie.

 

[Stephen]

Would we know about this discussions? It's impossible to know, so it's hard to say that we haven't explored different options. I think Seattle is one option for Marner trade and could assume that we might be discussing about different scenarios. If not about Marner but in overall at least.

I think we are fairly certain these explorations haven't taken place because the Leafs came out and said they wouldn't consider moving the Big 4 and reports from media have indicated the Leafs haven't talked to anyone about these guys (no leaks from third parties like potential trade partners and agents).

We have been searching those RHDs since start of the rebuild, if it would be that easy I think there wouldn't have been problems at all, but always has been until Holl emerged. You listed five players and we have fantasized about Josh Manson for years. In real life David Savard was expensive asset until this years deadline. Toews emerged trough AHL as 25yo and was bit of a wild card. In Oleksiak and Edmunson their teams stumbled on those players right time. Like we did with Holl. We have tried UFA routes, we have signed lefties like Hainsey, we have went to europe (Oz and Lehtonen as lefty).

Thing is that if we lose Holl in expansion draft we have one or two shots for suitable players and that's it, then you have to overpay. I think Dubas knows how much top4 RHD costs in the market right now. His discussing with other GMs daily. Bogosian is option @Mess likes to point out, but if he wants to move to States it's no go since his UFA.

I wouldn't be surprised if Holl could elevate his game a bit more here. His been late bloomer and earned his place in every league trough hard work and ability to adapt and learn. I'd count that he has smarts and good head on shoulders, so I would be hesitant to expose him. I think we could get more for Holl than McCann, Kerfoot or Dermott on trade market.

RHD and defensemen in general aren't rare acquisitions though. Neither are high quality defensemen in general in the draft, trade market or free agency. They have been particularly challenging for the Maple Leafs in recent years only because they assembled a forward heavy group of prospects and always struggled to find the right trade targets because of the perceived value imbalance. Nylander and Marner were good to give up for a defenseman, Kapanen wasn't good enough. Meanwhile, teams were trading for Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, the list I provided above, etc. And of course when it comes time to draft these 6'4" defensemen, the Leafs prefer players like Amirov to a Schneider.

 

[mikeyz]

Sure going into expansion that would be seen as a good result. But its not a vacuum, we have McCann now and are protecting a less valuable player imo. At a time when we desperately need more good forwards and he fell into our lap.

This.

 

[banks]

They'll take Dermott.

Look through the list of players available from other teams. There's plenty of forwards similar to Kerfoot or McCann. They're going to be in no desperate need of 25 ish 3 million dollar middle 6 forwards.

Affordable defencemen, however, are in short supply. If they take a few high priced forwards, Dermott will seem like a perfect choice to alance things out.

 

[Racer88]

It's genius, actually. It means we got to keep every roster player for the cost of a 7th and a pretty low value prospect.

Do we really want to keep most of our roster players………..we have has no success with them

 

[harvestglen]

I'll be pretty disappointed if McCann ends up picked by Seattle. Not because of the trade, which is a good value deal regardless of expansion outcome, but because they had the option to protect both McCann and Kerfoot over Holl and chose not to.