Proposal: Leafs - Flames

[GeeoffBrown]

Trading Gaudreau makes the Flames worse now and in the future. This only happens if contract negotiations turn sour.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

My statements were not illogical, I took the non-extreme route and said that Gaudreau would continue to be what he is.

You took the extreme route assuming that Marner will end up as good as Gaudreau lol

That's awesome that you have the ability to say exactly where a players peak point production potential is, that level of clairvoyance should serve you very well in your scouting endeavours.

That's obviously an opinion, like your opinion that Gaudreau has already reached his ceiling.

If Marner ends up being so mediocre, that probably helps the Leafs pick to be higher next year, right?

So you are rooting the tank?

And I noticed you dropped JVR off the docket...convenient

He was never an add. Go back and try reading again. It was an either or.

Tell you what, let's do this instead...I assume you're a Jersey fan, so we'll give you JVR (Poor man's Gaudreau) for Zacha (Poor man's Marner) and a 2017 1st (surely you can't be as bad as the leafs, so this will very likely be a lower pick, right?) I won't even add the roster player to fill the shoes of JVR, because I'm feeling generous

JVR is 5 years older than Gaudreau. . . . I see you're still fantastically missing the point.

 

[Randy Randerson]

That's a ridiculous comment. What if you were trading that package for McDavid? Still mortgaging your future?

It's not mortgaging your future if you're improving your future. Not sure what is complicated about that.

"A boat's a boat, but a mystery box could be anything. . . It could even be a boat!"

[Yt]yZpIog7e-R4[/MEDIA]

Nope, not an apt analogy.

In this case the mystery box could have 2 boats and a jet ski.

 

[Spade]

You can't just say "for argument's sake" and then make an illogical statement like that.

How about this. Let's say, for argument's sake, that Gaudreau turns into a perennial 100 point player and wins several scoring titles, and helping the Leafs to a playoff spot next year. And then, for argument's sake, Marner ends up a 45-50 point winger.

In that not so far fetched scenario, you've traded a mid first pick and an average top 6 winger for a superstar MVP type player.
Marner has 75 point potential. He also has the potential to bust, potential which is far more likely than Gaudreau regressing to a 65 point player.

Like I said, if Lou was ever offered Gaudreau for Marner and a 1st, he'd probably collapse from excitement.

See:

Yeah, not a good idea.

Gaudreau is what Leafs fan hope Marner turns into. Flames have no interest in trading him, let alone for an unproven player. The plus would have to be significant.

On the flip side of the coin, Leafs don't want to add to Marner, nor should they be giving up a younger and more cost effective player with where they are at in their rebuild.

Keyword being should.

In a vacuum, yeah Lou would love to get a proven star with excellent entertainment factor who's not even 23. If all it took was a couple of maybes, absolutely.

But when you look at the timeline of the Leafs right now, adding a player who will likely take up about $6.5-$7.5 million on his second contract which will kick in right this season doesn't make sense. Marner + another top 5 or 10 pick, all of which will be cost-controlled assets for a few years, makes much more sense in keeping if you're building around an 18-year old center and aren't projecting yourself as a playoff team in the immediate future.

The Kessel trade is a great example. Now, not every trade will turn out that poorly with the benefit of hindsight, there were a lot of circumstances that led to that disaster, but at the worst case scenario the Leafs gave up an equivalent/better player at the forward position AND on top of that another top 10 pick who became a top 4 (some would say better than that) defender and a high 2nd round pick (while it didn't turn out, it was still an asset).

I love Gaudreau, he's perfect for the Flames because the Flames' timeline to compete is basically built around him and a few other assets. He's not exactly perfect for the Leafs because they've already begun a lot of work on a different timeline built around different players. Gaudreau, as much as I love him, doesn't slide in nearly as smoothly because the Leafs' plans called for someone else in that position.

You wouldn't build an American football team around a primarily pocket-based quarterback, then trade that quarterback for a runningback of equal or greater value. Why? Because now you have a roster full of players designed to maximize a passer's capabilities, except the new playcalls are geared towards a running game. Nobody wins in that scenario even if the trade was a good trade to make in terms of value.

The Leafs are going with a Matthews/Marner/Rielly playcall, not a Gaudreau playcall, so the trade wouldn't make sense from either team's perspective. Changing this up midway through just creates a half-assed roster with no direction, which does neither team any good.

 

[Christ]

Don't see why either team would do this...Leafs would have to add at this point simply due to Jonny's NHL success but Marner himself is a super-prospect who could develop into a very similar player in the near future. Toronto is not looking to win now and can afford to wait a couple of years for Marner to develop while Calgary is not looking to take any steps back from where they are, there is no motivation for either team to make this trade.

On a side note Toronto would be insane to give up Matthiews in a deal like this, not because Jonny is an inferior player but because Matthiews is exactly the type of player that the Leafs have lacked since Mats left and he is the ideal piece to build around.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You took the extreme route assuming that Marner will end up as good as Gaudreau lol



That's obviously an opinion, like your opinion that Gaudreau has already reached his ceiling.


So you are rooting the tank?


He was never an add. Go back and try reading again. It was an either or.

JVR is 5 years older than Gaudreau. . . . I see you're still fantastically missing the point.

His potential is most certainly that, he wouldn't be ranked where he is, gone 4th overall in a good draft, won every award he could last year, scored at prodigious rates in the CHL if that weren't true. Of course there's a risk that he falls short or busts, the leafs are in a position to take that risk

I think Gaudreau could get better, I think he could also regress. Not willing to sell all those assets as a gamble

JVR's still in the middle of his prime, Zacha is not in Marner's tier, nor will your first pick be near ours....sounds like a good deal right

I'm rooting for patience, if we get another high pick or two that's fine as well

My mistake on it being a 1st+JVR rather than a 1st or JVR

 

[Randy Randerson]

See:



Keyword being should.

In a vacuum, yeah Lou would love to get a proven star with excellent entertainment factor who's not even 23. If all it took was a couple of maybes, absolutely.

But when you look at the timeline of the Leafs right now, adding a player who will likely take up about $6.5-$7.5 million on his second contract which will kick in right this season doesn't make sense. Marner + another top 5 or 10 pick, all of which will be cost-controlled assets for a few years, makes much more sense in keeping if you're building around an 18-year old center and aren't projecting yourself as a playoff team in the immediate future.

The Kessel trade is a great example. Now, not every trade will turn out that poorly with the benefit of hindsight, there were a lot of circumstances that led to that disaster, but at the worst case scenario the Leafs gave up an equivalent/better player at the forward position AND on top of that another top 10 pick who became a top 4 (some would say better than that) defender and a high 2nd round pick (while it didn't turn out, it was still an asset).

I love Gaudreau, he's perfect for the Flames because the Flames' timeline to compete is basically built around him and a few other assets. He's not exactly perfect for the Leafs because they've already begun a lot of work on a different timeline built around different players. Gaudreau, as much as I love him, doesn't slide in nearly as smoothly because the Leafs' plans called for someone else in that position.

You wouldn't build an American football team around a primarily pocket-based quarterback, then trade that quarterback for a runningback of equal or greater value. Why? Because now you have a roster full of players designed to maximize a passer's capabilities, except the new playcalls are geared towards a running game. Nobody wins in that scenario even if the trade was a good trade to make in terms of value.

The Leafs are going with a Matthews/Marner/Rielly playcall, not a Gaudreau playcall, so the trade wouldn't make sense from either team's perspective. Changing this up midway through just creates a half-assed roster with no direction, which does neither team any good.

Exactly, neither team does this deal. Teams that aren't in cap trouble don't give up 23 year old stars unless the overpayment is crazy (especially ones that are just starting to contend, and have a need that is specifically the guy they'd be giving up), and teams that are still in the middle of a rebuild shouldn't be giving those overpayments for guys who are sure things, even if those sure things are young and have lots of upside (as the leafs have learned the hard way, recently)

Would be great to get back to civility with this thread, and thanks for seeing the viewpoint of the other fanbase...always helpful when that happens to keep these threads from being mud slinging contests

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

His potential is most certainly that, he wouldn't be ranked where he is, gone 4th overall in a good draft, won every award he could last year, scored at prodigious rates in the CHL if that weren't true. Of course there's a risk that he falls short or busts, the leafs are in a position to take that risk

I think Gaudreau could get better, I think he could also regress. Not willing to sell all those assets as a gamble

JVR's still in the middle of his prime, Zacha is not in Marner's tier, nor will your first pick be near ours....sounds like a good deal right

I'm rooting for patience, if we get another high pick or two that's fine as well

My mistake on it being a 1st+JVR rather than a 1st or JVR

So knowing what I proposed, would you still say no to Marner + JVR or Marner + 1st?

 

[Randy Randerson]

So knowing what I proposed, would you still say no to Marner + JVR or Marner + 1st?

Marner + 1st still no - like I said that could be Liljegren, which if our big 3 prospects turn out is a very high ceiling player in the position we need. It could also be Cal Foote who looks like a slightly lower ceiling version of the same

Marner+JVR is more interesting, but i think we're selling low on JVR after an injured year. I think long and hard on this I guess. Again though, if Marner turns out he's probably similar to Gaudreau, so we ended up paying JVR for the risk. JVR could bring back a good return if he has a good year this year to a team that needs a cost controlled first line winger, Pens and Chicago come to mind as they both try to ride their contending windows as far as they'll go.

I have no doubt that Gaudreau is worth a package like this in a vaccuum

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Marner + 1st still no - like I said that could be Liljegren, which if our big 3 prospects turn out is a very high ceiling player in the position we need. It could also be Cal Foote who looks like a slightly lower ceiling version of the same

Marner+JVR is more interesting, but i think we're selling low on JVR after an injured year. I think long and hard on this I guess. Again though, if Marner turns out he's probably similar to Gaudreau, so we ended up paying JVR for the risk. JVR could bring back a good return if he has a good year this year to a team that needs a cost controlled first line winger, Pens and Chicago come to mind as they both try to ride their contending windows as far as they'll go.

I have no doubt that Gaudreau is worth a package like this in a vaccuum

That's crazy. The odds of Marner becoming Gaudreau are extremely low.

 

[hamzarocks]

That's crazy. The odds of Marner becoming Gaudreau are extremely low.

Marner can become as good as gaudreau is right now. A ppg player. If you think Gaudreau has the ability to go the next level and get 90-100 ( which im startong to think now after seeong more highlights and isolation videos) than yes I do think the chances of Marner being as good gaudreau. It's just that when you add in a 1st rounder from the team that had the worest record and have had franchise players go to other teams due to trading 1st it becomes real risky for the leafs. Let's say there is a 15 pt gap between marner and gaudreau when both are playing at there best. Does adding jvr or a high 1st make that worth it for the leafs. If lilijgren is as good as advertised thats a norris dmen. I would still do the jvr one for gaudreau but not the 1st unless it was top 5 protected. Than I'd probably due it. I love marner and think he will be elite but gaudreau is a rare player from the looks of things. He is physically really weak but so smart, and skilled that it looks like he can overcome any size asvantage ( you obviously know this). So if we were able to protect the 1st than I would do it. Id do the jvr one right now.

 

[Halla]

That's crazy. The odds of Marner becoming Gaudreau are extremely low.

based on what? Marner is miles ahead of Gaudrea at the same age.
you think the chances that marner becomes a near ppg player is extremely low? lawl

 

[Randy Randerson]

That's crazy. The odds of Marner becoming Gaudreau are extremely low.

Your opinion is yours to have I guess. Marner has done everything he can to this point in his career to prove the opposite, we're happy to wait and see

The odds of the 1st round picks we traded for Kessel had extremely low odds of become Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton

 

[Halla]

So knowing what I proposed, would you still say no to Marner + JVR or Marner + 1st?

yes. leafs arent moving an elite prospect + a likely top 5 pick to get the right to pay Gaudreau 6.5-7 per year

 

[Halla]

Nope, not an apt analogy.

In this case the mystery box could have 2 boats and a jet ski.

I dont think he knows what the meaning of future is.
trading for a 23 year old that is better RIGHT NOW is apparently
improving the future. bye bye marner and liljegren, we could really use another 5'7 winger!

 

[Randy Randerson]

yes. leafs arent moving an elite prospect + a likely top 5 pick to get the right to pay Gaudreau 6.5-7 per year

He was highlighting that it was JVR or a 1st rounder. I think hard about JVR, but still not jumping on that - some team would, just doesn't need to be us. And Calgary is absolutely not trading Johnny Hockey anyway

 

[Randy Randerson]

I dont think he knows what the meaning of future is.
trading for a 23 year old that is better RIGHT NOW is apparently
improving the future. bye bye marner and liljegren, we could really use another 5'7 winger!

haha I'll take Gaudreau on my team for sure, but I would take Seguin+Hamilton over him

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

based on what? Marner is miles ahead of Gaudrea at the same age.
you think the chances that marner becomes a near ppg player is extremely low? lawl

Yes. How many point per game players are there in the league? Not sure why you are comparing them at 19. Yakupov was ahead of Gaudreau at that age as well.

I think it's highly probable he becomes a 60-70 point 1st line winger. But there are so few true PPG players in the league.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yes. How many point per game players are there in the league? Not sure why you are comparing them at 19. Yakupov was ahead of Gaudreau at that age as well.

I think it's highly probable he becomes a 60-70 point 1st line winger. But there are so few true PPG players in the league.

Well, let's hope that Mattews, Nylander, Reilly + Liljegren inflate Mitch's numbers by that extra 10 points....

Also not convinced that difference would lend a whole lot to actually winning hockey games, 5 goals and 5 assists could be made up by keeping JVR or the 1st rounder over their replacements

the league is also making changes to increase scoring, so the mark on "PPG" players should move

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

yes. leafs arent moving an elite prospect + a likely top 5 pick to get the right to pay Gaudreau 6.5-7 per year

If that's the Leaf attitude, it's no wonder they haven't been competitive for so long.

 

[Randy Randerson]

If that's the Leaf attitude, it's no wonder they haven't been competitive for so long.

That's specifically the opposite of the "leafs attitude" that has kept us from being competitive for so long

Jersey should offer up Zacha+1st+Palmieri, maybe you guys can get competitive by going around the draft

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well, let's hope that Mattews, Nylander, Reilly + Liljegren inflate Mitch's numbers by that extra 10 points....

Also not convinced that difference would lend a whole lot to actually winning hockey games, 5 goals and 5 assists could be made up by keeping JVR or the 1st rounder over their replacements

the league is also making changes to increase scoring, so the mark on "PPG" players should move

That's 10 extra goals / year. Should be good enough to win ~5 more games every season, which can be the difference between making the playoffs and not.

 

[Randy Randerson]

That's 10 extra goals / year. Should be good enough to win ~5 more games every season, which can be the difference between making the playoffs and not.

which you also lose by downgrading the spots left by the other assets you trade to get Gaudreau. You might just shift goals from one line to another, and If Marner does turn out as good as Gaudreau, you shift those goals to the flames

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That's specifically the opposite of the "leafs attitude" that has kept us from being competitive for so long

Jersey should offer up Zacha+1st+Palmieri, maybe you guys can get competitive by going around the draft

I would pay that price as a Devils fan. A significant upgrade on wing with a player like Gaudreau makes your entire offense better, and is very easily worth 2 future assets.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I would pay that price as a Devils fan. A significant upgrade on wing with a player like Gaudreau makes your entire offense better, and is very easily worth 2 future assets.

Then I hope the trade works out for you. I can tell you that trading futures for current players has not worked for the leafs, and is the primary culprit for us being so bad for so long