Proposal: Leafs - Flames

[Sundinisagod]

I've been predicting his success as an NHL player for a long time.



The argument isn't that Marner can't be as good as Gaudreau. But Gaudreau is not done developing and improving, either. He still has a ceiling that goes beyond his current capabilities. I don't see many players with that sort of potential, and I haven't seen the kind of offensive prowess from Marner to think he could be a perennial threat to win a scoring title. His junior numbers weren't much better than what we saw from Strome, Tkachuk, Dvorak, etc.

Two of those players rode Marner's coat tail, the other never looked as dominant as Marner at the OHL level. Just look at the awards/accomplishments Marner has racked up, in comparison to those players.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Two of those players rode Marner's coat tail, the other never looked as dominant as Marner at the OHL level. Just look at the awards/accomplishments Marner has racked up, in comparison to those players.

Awards and accomplishments don't mean nearly as much as actual production for scoring players.

Like I said, I am a big fan of Marner, but it's far too early to be proclaiming him a likely bet to be an 80 point NHL'er, especially given some of the challenges he faced in training camp last year and at the WJCs.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Awards and accomplishments don't mean nearly as much as actual production for scoring players.

Like I said, I am a big fan of Marner, but it's far too early to be proclaiming him a likely bet to be an 80 point NHL'er, especially given some of the challenges he faced in training camp last year and at the WJCs.

Sam Gagner says hi. There is certainly precedent for players riding coat tails in junior.

I'm not proclaiming Marner to be a sure fire 80pt NHL'er, but the scouts certainly believed Marner to be the best of those 3 on their respective draft days

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Sam Gagner says hi. There is certainly precedent for players riding coat tails in junior.

I'm not proclaiming Marner to be a sure fire 80pt NHL'er, but the scouts certainly believe Marner to be the best of those 3 on their respective draft days

I believe he is the best as well, but what I am saying is that its not like his production stood out to the extent necessary to make me think he is more than likely to become a 80 point player.

 

[Edgelord]

I believe he is the best as well, but what I am saying is that its not like his production stood out to the extent necessary to make me think he is more than likely to become a 80 point player.

there are tons of players who have broken 80 points that Marner has out produced in jrs. Marner was better than players like Hall, Seguin, Stamkos.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I believe he is the best as well, but what I am saying is that its not like his production stood out to the extent necessary to make me think he is more than likely to become a 80 point player.

It was enough to be believable that his ceiling is that or slightly more. He's produced better in junior than: Tyler Seguin, Taylor Hall, Claude Giroux, Matt Duchene, and similarly to John Tavares and Jason Spezza. Even though it's too early to tell on them, you can add in Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett and Michael Dal Colle to that list to help put in perspective how good Marner's production in junior is, and put him in the same production category as Jonathan Drouin (who was a prodigious point producer, a little better than Marner in a league that's a little easier to score in)

Patrick Kane is on a short list of high draft picks (because that speaks to the scouts belief in projectability to the NHL) who were clearly better than Marner in junior

Anyway, saying that we should trade Marner for a sure thing who is around where Marner could turn out to be and add other assets is a fine and reasonable thing to do, but not understanding that we're in a position to wait and that most leaf fans are also reasonable in wanting to wait on our own assets is just putting the blinders on.

Gaudreau could also turn out to be Jordan Eberle, who if you had traded for him after the 2011-2012 season, you would surely be disappointed despite him being a fine NHL hockey player

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It was enough to be believable that his ceiling is that or slightly more. He's produced better in junior than: Tyler Seguin, Taylor Hall, Claude Giroux, and similarly to John Tavares and Jason Spezza

Patrick Kane is on a short list of high draft picks (because that speaks to the scouts belief in projectability to the NHL) who were clearly better than Marner in junior

Anyway, saying that we should trade Marner for a sure thing who is around where Marner could turn out to be and add other assets is a fine and reasonable thing to do, but not understanding that we're in a position to wait and that most leaf fans are also reasonable in wanting to wait on our own assets is just putting the blinders on.

Gaudreau could also turn out to be Jordan Eberle, who if you had traded for him after the 2011-2012 season, you would surely be disappointed despite him being a fine NHL hockey player

Sure, and Marner could turn out to be Simon Gamache.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Sure, and Marner could turn out to be Simon Gamache.

Gamache was a 9th round pick, you should have said Yakupov if you wanted a more believable comparison.

Leaf Fans seem content to wait on Marner's potential, and that's a perfectly, objectively reasonable thing to do rather than trade him+assets for a Johnny Gaudreau

 

[Edgelord]

Sure, and Marner could turn out to be Simon Gamache.

point is based on the evidence of top 5 drafted forwards and current players who are 80+ point players that Marner has out preformed the odds of Marner being Gamache are less than the odds of J.G being Eberle.

Anyhow its annoying how little of a chance you give Marner to be as good as J.G all the while at the same age Marner was better at hockey.

 

[Edgelord]

All Marner has to do is put up 1 point some time before his D+4 season. Actually its more than likely that Marner puts up 65 points by his D+5 season. He will have this upcoming year his D+2, +3, +4 to break out. So yea Marner will be just fine and more than likely to hit 80 in his career

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

point is based on the evidence of top 5 drafted forwards and current players who are 80+ point players that Marner has out preformed the odds of Marner being Gamache are less than the odds of J.G being Eberle.

Anyhow its annoying how little of a chance you give Marner to be as good as J.G all the while at the same age Marner was better at hockey.

Players have different development curves. Like I said earlier, Yakupov was also better than JG at 19. How did that turn out?

I know you believe that Marner is more than likely to become a 80 point player, but you have to look back historically to understand how unlikely it really is for guys to turn into that kind of player. There just aren't very many in the league any more.

 

[Randy Randerson]

point is based on the evidence of top 5 drafted forwards and current players who are 80+ point players that Marner has out preformed the odds of Marner being Gamache are less than the odds of J.G being Eberle.

Anyhow its annoying how little of a chance you give Marner to be as good as J.G all the while at the same age Marner was better at hockey.

He's failing to consider draft position, which speaks to professional opinions of projectability, and hugely to the odds of a player turning out. Gamache is an extreme comparison that's just an attempt at making a very grey argument black&white. Its obviously not as easy of a decision as he's making it out to be

 

[Edgelord]

Players have different development curves. Like I said earlier, Yakupov was also better than JG at 19. How did that turn out?

I know you believe that Marner is more than likely to become a 80 point player, but you have to look back historically to understand how unlikely it really is for guys to turn into that kind of player. There just aren't very many in the league any more.

Thing is many top end guys who Marner was better than have all hit 80. Hall, Stamkos, Seguin. Mack is an anomaly so far and should be up there soon enough and I fully expect Drouin to get to 80 or very close soon enough.
Right now only sure bets we have is McDavid then there is a group that has very strong chances of Eichel, Laine, Marner and Matthews then a whole slew of maybes

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Anyhow its annoying how little of a chance you give Marner to be as good as J.G all the while at the same age Marner was better at hockey.

At what age exactly was Marner "better" at hockey? He may have been at the same level but better?

As a 17 year old Gaudreau was the best player in his Junior league. the USHL is just as good a league as the OHL in terms of defensive competition and is a tougher league to score in without as many offensive talents to boost stats. Marner was good too, but there is no proof Marner's accomplishment was any better than Gaudreau's. We see that with a guy like Kyle Connor who pretty much replicated Guadreau's 17 year old season statistically and is currently just as good a prospect as Marner. Gaudreau was ELITE in the USHL. Only three players in the whole league outproduced him (as a rookie) and they were all 19 or 20 and played on the same line together. Did I mention Gaudreau led his team to win the USHL Championship?

As an 18 year old, Marner put up better numbers relative to his league, but his league was also a junior league while Gaudreau was an underdeveloped player playing in a mens league. Both players led their teams to league championships at age 18, with Gaudreau having Kreider and Dumoulin, and Marner having Tkachuk/Juolevi/Dvorak/Parsons.

As a 19 year old Gaudreau was considered by most the best player in NCAA. He also won WJC Gold.

As a 20 year old, Gaudreau put up numbers that had historically only been done by Martin St. Louis and Paul Kariya. He also won WC silver while leading that team's forwards in scoring. He really did not need to play in NCAA this year and only chose to do so so he could play together with his little brother.

As a 21 year old Gaudreau was a 64 point NHL rookie who helped get his team to the Final 8 for the first time in 10 seasons.

So far, Marner has not shown he is "better at hockey" at any age. He has shown he is more hyped, being a bit bigger, playing in a league that tends to draw more attention, and putting up gaudier individual numbers typical of the league he plays in. That said Marner has not shown he is markedly "worse" at hockey at any age either.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Awards and accomplishments don't mean nearly as much as actual production for scoring players.

Like I said, I am a big fan of Marner, but it's far too early to be proclaiming him a likely bet to be an 80 point NHL'er, especially given some of the challenges he faced in training camp last year and at the WJCs.

Yes but when the scoring is relatively close (as with players you cited) then awards and accomplishments absolutely do separate them.

Yeah, Gaudreau was much further from being NHL ready at that point in his career, so not sure what you're point here is?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes but when the scoring is relatively close (as with players you cited) then awards and accomplishments absolutely do separate them.

Yeah, Gaudreau was much further from being NHL ready at that point in his career, so not sure what you're point here is?

My point is that junior performance is far from a guarantee of NHL performance. It's certainly helpful in projecting what a player could become, but there's a reason why so many junior scorers don't end up top 10 NHL scorers.

I've gone on record saying Marner is a 1st overall caliber talent, and that he would have challenged for that spot in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. But even still, that doesn't make him more than likely to become a top 10 scorer, especially not by the age of 22, and there's always a risk that a player unable to translate to the NHL, like Yakupov. I'm not saying that I expect that, but given the recent history of these players, it's just as likely that he ends up a Sam Gagner as it is a Johnny Gaudreau. I don't think either case is extremely likely, but it highlights the risk / reward of prospects, and why it makes sense to move them for young proven players if the opportunity were to arise.

 

[Sundinisagod]

My point is that junior performance is far from a guarantee of NHL performance. It's certainly helpful in projecting what a player could become, but there's a reason why so many junior scorers don't end up top 10 NHL scorers.

I've gone on record saying Marner is a 1st overall caliber talent, and that he would have challenged for that spot in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. But even still, that doesn't make him more than likely to become a top 10 scorer, especially not by the age of 22, and there's always a risk that a player unable to translate to the NHL, like Yakupov. I'm not saying that I expect that, but given the recent history of these players, it's just as likely that he ends up a Sam Gagner as it is a Johnny Gaudreau. I don't think either case is extremely likely, but it highlights the risk / reward of prospects, and why it makes sense to move them for young proven players if the opportunity were to arise.

Like Kessel for Seguin and Hamilton? That worked out just great.

 

[garyturner3]

My point is that junior performance is far from a guarantee of NHL performance. It's certainly helpful in projecting what a player could become, but there's a reason why so many junior scorers don't end up top 10 NHL scorers.

I've gone on record saying Marner is a 1st overall caliber talent, and that he would have challenged for that spot in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. But even still, that doesn't make him more than likely to become a top 10 scorer, especially not by the age of 22, and there's always a risk that a player unable to translate to the NHL, like Yakupov. I'm not saying that I expect that, but given the recent history of these players, it's just as likely that he ends up a Sam Gagner as it is a Johnny Gaudreau. I don't think either case is extremely likely, but it highlights the risk / reward of prospects, and why it makes sense to move them for young proven players if the opportunity were to arise.

But it doesn't make sense for a team at the start of a rebuild. The general consensus here from Leaf fans is the plus needed on top of Marner is too much for the deal to make sense. If that plus is Nylander (which a lot of people are suggesting here), then it's the last thing a rebuilding team should do. Sure prospects can bust, but I like the odds of Marner and/or Nylander hitting their ceiling more than having Gaudreau in the lineup to be honest despite how great he is. No matter how you look at it, trading for Gaudreau is a shortcut in the rebuild and exactly what this management team has consistently said they're going to avoid this time around. These type of deals more often than not come back to bite the team giving up the unproven assets because they have to overpay for the proven assets. It's a move a playoff team should consider making, not the Leafs at this stage.

 

[TOGuy14]

Like Kessel for Seguin and Hamilton? That worked out just great.

Noooo apparently we aren't allowed to reference that blunder as a reason not to make the same mistakes because Gaudreau is a totally different type of small scoring winger than Kessel and we need to just stick our heads in the sand