Proposal: Leafs - Flames

[cookie]

If you look back this part of the "discussion" isn't about Gaudreau being an 80 point player (he hasn't done it yet and may never) it started when someone said Marner had "as least" an 80-100 point ceiling.

You basically are eliminating the possibility of a guy like Matthews (possible ppg center) not forming any sort of chemistry with Marner when you say that. Kind of weird when you consider that the Calgary core provides gaudreau with scoring help (even if it is not that much).

If they're good it shouldn't have to take 5 years to prove it(see Crosby,Ovechkin,Backstrome,Stamkos,Tavares,Seguin and others) and then you had the balls

How many years of hockey are you going to consider? NHL level hockey is a different experience for 19-20 year olds like Marner who will be experiencing physical growth and development compared to guys like gaudreau that have the 2 years of NCAA training and maturity.

Both players' development should also be factored wherein Marner plays much more hockey through the year leaving him less time to recover and partake in higher intensity strength work. This means that team compositions aren't the only area to consider when making player-player comparisons. That's why it's better to leave it up to father time.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Flames could potentially set themselves up quite well for this season while the Leafs could take one more season of misery to get closer to the sun.

Gadreau 7ish
Wideman 2.625 (1/2 retained)
Smid 3.5
Stajan 1.5625 (1/2 retained)

FOR

Nylander 1.744
Marner 1.744
Bozak 4.25
Van Riemsdyk 4.25
Marincin 1.25

Van Riemsdyk-Monahan-Nylander
Tkachuk-Bennett-Marner
Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer
Ferland-Bozak-Chiasson
EXTRA:Bolig,Bouma,Vey

Giordano-Brodie
Marincin-Hamilton
Jokipakka-Engelland
EXTRA:?

Smart not to post the Peafs roster because there basically wouldn't be one.

No to this trade concept. Leafs are going to do this the slow-and-steady way. Not selling the farm for a scoring winger.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

LOL, All offensive players drafted top 5 have the potential of 80 - 100 points but very few actually do it.

Out of the last 10 drafts (50 players)

three 80 point scorers
two 90 point scorers
two 100 points scorers

Of these seven players only one wasn't drafted 1st or 2nd overall, Backstrome (4th in 2006)

I wish Marner and his fans all the best at even reaching 80 points.

Great post. With his development curve, the fact that Gaudreau reached this level at such a young age means he's still got plenty of room for improvement. It's been said before, but it's hard to put a ceiling on this guy.

So even if one believes Marner's ceiling is that of a player better than Gaudreau is today, it still doesn't mean that his it's higher than Gaudreau's ceiling. I'd be shocked if Marner has a top 6 scoring finish by the time he's 22.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I doubt any of us here on HF are able to judge a player's absolute ceiling, considering most NHL scouts won't even comment on the matter.

 

[Randy Randerson]

No. What you speaking about is non-sense to dispel the fact that Van Riemsdyk although touted as a 1st line forward by Leaf fans and Toronto media is not.

He cannot pull a 1st line. He produces at a 2nd line rate 5 on 5 (look at the link I posted which shows all NHL forwards over the last two seasons and their points 5 on 5 per 60 and you'll see Van Riemsdyk, WAAAAAY down there.

I'm not a Flames fan btw, the stuff posted by most Leaf fans is so ridiculous I have to say something.

All that nonsense was to dispel the illusion that 5on5 pts/60 in isolation can be used to determine what a guy is, unless you think Joe Colborne and Anasthasiou are top 10 NHL forwards?

Even using that, JVR is still produces at a first line rate in every year but 2014-2015 when he played on a noteably bad possession line that was awful 5 on 5 (that was a cumulative -101 for the season), and he scored at a nearly identical rate to Phil Kessel. The only reason the link you posted has him so low is because it includes that year, and that's the only shred of evidence you have - which is full of holes.

He's a first line winger, not a guy you can build a franchise around, but totally fine as the worst guy on a very good top line

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I doubt any of us here on HF are able to judge a player's absolute ceiling, considering most NHL scouts won't even comment on the matter.

What a strange comment, given that's a huge factor in player evaluation and selection, I'm certain many scouting professionals talk about player potential. It's like you're just saying that because in this case, Marner's ceiling is not as high as Gaudreau's. Would your tune change if we were comparing the ceilings of Marner and Zacha?

And there are plenty of HF posters who could very easily provide evaluations better than most pro scouts. Scouting isn't exactly a high paying profession . . . Most who could be scouts typically have careers that aren't worth sacrificing. Sure, there are some great scouts out there, and then there are some who consistently make poor judgements.

 

[Connor]

All that nonsense was to dispel the illusion that 5on5 pts/60 in isolation can be used to determine what a guy is, unless you think Joe Colborne and Anasthasiou are top 10 NHL forwards?

Even using that, JVR is still produces at a first line rate in every year but 2014-2015 when he played on a noteably bad possession line that was awful 5 on 5 (that was a cumulative -101 for the season), and he scored at a nearly identical rate to Phil Kessel. The only reason the link you posted has him so low is because it includes that year, and that's the only shred of evidence you have - which is full of holes.

He's a first line winger, not a guy you can build a franchise around, but totally fine as the worst guy on a very good top line

I looked up that stat line because some Leaf fans said Van Riemsdyk was a top 50 ppg player. Points per 60 is what I assumed he used because it is much more telling (whoever gets the most PP minutes is going to have inflated point totals).

Being the worst player on a 1st line doesn't mean that player is 1st line material IMO. If a player doesn't pull their weight on a 1st line they would be better suited and producing more in a more sheltered role.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

What a strange comment, given that's a huge factor in player evaluation and selection, I'm certain many scouting professionals talk about player potential. It's like you're just saying that because in this case, Marner's ceiling is not as high as Gaudreau's. Would your tune change if we were comparing the ceilings of Marner and Zacha?

And there are plenty of HF posters who could very easily provide evaluations better than most pro scouts. Scouting isn't exactly a high paying profession . . . Most who could be scouts typically have careers that aren't worth sacrificing. Sure, there are some great scouts out there, and then there are some who consistently make poor judgements.

Marner does have a ceiling as high than J.G's and slightly better than 50% chance of hitting it.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Marner does have a ceiling as high than J.G's and slightly better than 50% chance of hitting it.

What? You think it's more likely than not that Marner reaches Gaudreau's current level?

That's absolute crazy talk. I think he has a 50% chance at becoming a 60 point pace player, but 80? That's incredibly rare. . .

 

[13pacheco31]

If you look back this part of the "discussion" isn't about Gaudreau being an 80 point player (he hasn't done it yet and may never) it started when someone said Marner had "as least" an 80-100 point ceiling.

Actually I said at least potentially have a 80-100 point ceiling key words being potential and ceiling, which I feel is fair expected ceiling for a prospect of his caliber.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I looked up that stat line because some Leaf fans said Van Riemsdyk was a top 50 ppg player. Points per 60 is what I assumed he used because it is much more telling (whoever gets the most PP minutes is going to have inflated point totals).

Being the worst player on a 1st line doesn't mean that player is 1st line material IMO. If a player doesn't pull their weight on a 1st line they would be better suited and producing more in a more sheltered role.

Being able to be the worst player on a good first line makes you a 1st line player, by definition. You need to revise what you think a first line player is, if you think it's the top 30 forwards in the NHL, there's not nearly enough of them to fill out the top lines in the NHL. He's a top 90 forward quite easily, ergo a top line player by definition.

Keep in mind he's performed at top 90 rates, even 5 on 5, without the benefit of playing on a line that was good 5 on 5 (Kessel+Bozak prior to last season) - its hard to put pucks in the net if you don't have the puck ever. You'll see that his pp pts/60 are excellent, because the same line was deadly when they had forward zone control. Last year he did it again while playing on a leafs team that iced some of the worst lineups in team history.


He's a (leafs) career 1.8ish pts 5on5 pts/60, meaning at ~15 mins of ES time per game and 3 mins of PP @ over 3pts/60, he's going to be a 50ish pt player given the lines he's played on, which is above 90th place in NHL scoring among forwards in any year, and he usually outpaces 50pts. With what we have coming, we have reason to believe that his linemates will improve, especially in puck possession, so his 5on5 pts/60 should improve significantly provided he still gets opportunity - which he should as our best LW.

Outside of stat watching, you should watch some JVR highlights, he's incredibly talented. He was drafted 2nd OA for a reason, and I think most of the discontent over him is because he didn't live up to his potential as a top 10 winger in the game. He's a one-dimensional player, sure, but he's very good in the forward zone

 

[TOGuy14]

Can't believe this is still going.

Would CGY trade Monahan + Tkachuk + for Malkin?

 

[Deadly Dogma]

What? You think it's more likely than not that Marner reaches Gaudreau's current level?

That's absolute crazy talk. I think he has a 50% chance at becoming a 60 point pace player, but 80? That's incredibly rare. . .

Yes I do think Marner has a better than 50% chance at reaching J.G's current level. Marner is a special player. Marner will put up more points than Matthews and Nylander.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Can't believe this is still going.

Would CGY trade Monahan + Tkachuk + for 23 year old Malkin?

Fixed it for you. And yes, they would lol.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes I do think Marner has a better than 50% chance at reaching J.G's current level. Marner is a special player. Marner will put up more points than Matthews and Nylander.

Ok, that's all you needed to say to discredit everything you've posted in this thread.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Fixed it for you. And yes, they would lol.

Gaudreau =/= Malkin. He's great, but that is not a fair comparison - I get you're trying to highlight that age makes a value difference and that's fair, but you swung past the point of equilibrium. 23 year old Malkin had multiple 100+pt seasons under his belt

23 year old Gaudreau is probably along the lines of 2010-2011 Giroux, then apply a small discount because he's not a centre.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gaudreau =/= Malkin. He's great, but that is not a fair comparison - I get you're trying to highlight that age makes a value difference and that's fair, but you swung past the point of equilibrium. 23 year old Malkin had multiple 100+pt seasons under his belt

23 year old Gaudreau is probably along the lines of 2010-2011 Giroux, then apply a small discount because he's not a centre.

And at this point, it would be hard to say Marner = Monahan.

Best comparison is actually 22/23 year old P Kane for Bennett + Tkachuk.

 

[Randy Randerson]

And at this point, it would be hard to say Marner = Monahan.

Best comparison is actually 22/23 year old P Kane for Bennett + Tkachuk.

I think Marner was the Tkachuk in that comparison, JVR was the Monahan.

And again, Gaudreau has not achieved what the reigning Hart+Art Ross winner has, who had 4 season above 70pts at that point in his career and was a 1st overall pick 4 years earlier. Closer, but still more valuable than Gaudreau at this point

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think Marner was the Tkachuk in that comparison, JVR was the Monahan.

And again, Gaudreau has not achieved what the reigning Hart+Art Ross winner has, who had 4 season above 70pts at that point in his career and was a 1st overall pick 4 years earlier. Closer, but still more valuable than Gaudreau at this point

Gaudreau actually had a much better 22 year old season than Kane. And Monahan's value likely exceeds JVR's at this point, simply given his age.

 

[blankall]

Gaudreau actually had a much better 22 year old season than Kane. And Monahan's value likely exceeds JVR's at this point, simply given his age.

Monahan > JVR.

Monahan out produces JVR, is a centre, is healthier, is younger, etc...There's no "likely". Monahan's value exceeds JVR's at this point.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Gaudreau actually had a much better 22 year old season than Kane. And Monahan's value likely exceeds JVR's at this point, simply given his age.

78pts in 79games is much better than 73 in 73? please, elaborate.


I agree that Monahan's value exceeds JVR's, position favours him as well. Marner's value also exceeds Tkachuk's at this point - probably not by the same gap that Monahan's exceeds JVR's, but the waters are muddied.
We live in a world of imperfect comparison, so I think the poster makes his point though, why give away excess assets when you can just wait on your own

 

[Sundinisagod]

What a strange comment, given that's a huge factor in player evaluation and selection, I'm certain many scouting professionals talk about player potential. It's like you're just saying that because in this case, Marner's ceiling is not as high as Gaudreau's. Would your tune change if we were comparing the ceilings of Marner and Zacha?

And there are plenty of HF posters who could very easily provide evaluations better than most pro scouts. Scouting isn't exactly a high paying profession . . . Most who could be scouts typically have careers that aren't worth sacrificing. Sure, there are some great scouts out there, and then there are some who consistently make poor judgements.

Well first off we never actually established that Marner's ceiling is not as high as Gaudreau's. Did you know that Gaudreau would be a ppg player by the age of 22, back when he was the same age as Marner but with much less pedigree as a prospect? If so, color me impressed. If not, it's slightly hypocritical to put a cap on Marner's ceiling. I'd like to know, what indicators there are that Marner can't be as good as Gaudreau? He's basically been the most dominant offensive OHL player outside of McDavid in recent years. With regards to Zacha vs Marner, I haven't seen the same kind of offensive prowess from Zacha to believe he has that level of upside...that said, it's not impossible that he goes on to be the next Getzlaf. That's my point, we don't know any player's absolute ceiling, so I find it silly to sit hear and say player X has a higher ceiling than player Y, especially when they show a very similar skillset. I vaguely recall a GM being asked about a prospect's upside, his answer was basically we'll have to wait and see.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

78pts in 79games is much better than 73 in 73? please, elaborate.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000352012.html

Kane had 66p in 82gp in his 22 year old season.

I agree that Monahan's value exceeds JVR's, position favours him as well. Marner's value also exceeds Tkachuk's at this point - probably not by the same gap that Monahan's exceeds JVR's, but the waters are muddied.
We live in a world of imperfect comparison, so I think the poster makes his point though, why give away excess assets when you can just wait on your own

Because there is inherent risk in the development of prospects, and its more than likely that Marner never reaches Gaudreau's current level, let alone the level he could still grow to. There is still non-zero probability than Marner is unable to translate his offense to the NHL level.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well first off we never actually established that Marner's ceiling is not as high as Gaudreau's. Did you know that Gaudreau would be a ppg player by the age of 22, back when he was the same age as Marner but with much less pedigree as a prospect? If so, color me impressed. If not, it's slightly hypocritical to put a cap on Marner's ceiling.

I've been predicting his success as an NHL player for a long time.

I'd like to know, what indicators there are that Marner can't be as good as Gaudreau? He's basically been the most dominant offensive OHL player outside of McDavid in recent years. With regards to Zacha vs Marner, I haven't seen the same kind of offensive prowess from Zacha to believe he has that level of upside...that said, it's not impossible that he goes on to be the next Getzlaf. That's my point, we don't know any player's absolute ceiling, so I find it silly to sit hear and say player X has a higher ceiling than player Y, especially when they show a very similar skillset. I vaguely recall a GM being asked about a prospect's upside, his answer was basically we'll have to wait and see.

The argument isn't that Marner can't be as good as Gaudreau. But Gaudreau is not done developing and improving, either. He still has a ceiling that goes beyond his current capabilities. I don't see many players with that sort of potential, and I haven't seen the kind of offensive prowess from Marner to think he could be a perennial threat to win a scoring title. His junior numbers weren't much better than what we saw from Strome, Tkachuk, Dvorak, etc.

 

[Randy Randerson]

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000352012.html

Kane had 66p in 82gp in his 22 year old season.




Because there is inherent risk in the development of prospects, and its more than likely that Marner never reaches Gaudreau's current level, let alone the level he could still grow to. There is still non-zero probability than Marner is unable to translate his offense to the NHL level.

Only because of the way that hockeydb indexes ages - the age on the first game of the season, I believe. Gaudreau is an August bday, Kane is a November bday. 1988 bday is to 2010-2011 what 1993 bday is to 2015-2016. Difference is that Gaudreau turned 22 two months before the 2015/16 season, Kane turned 22 a month after the start of the 2010/2011 season, those are the same season to me. If you're trading for Patrick Kane in August of 2012 (his last season being 2011-2012), he's turning 24 in 3 months

Again, we're in a position to wait on our assets, max value happens by keeping them+them turning out, not by trading risk+reward to another team for a sure thing.