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Leafs favorite for the Atlantic division this year?

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Do they win the Atlantic

  • Yes

    Votes: 79 53.7%

  • No

    Votes: 68 46.3%
  • Total voters
    147
LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
John Tavares and Joe Sackic immediately come to mind
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Sakic career year was 120 points age 26, so we have 2 players, the list is short I wouldn’t bet on William becoming the 3rd, although it is possible I guess. Highly unlikely though since it has only happened twice before.
 
We’ll finish 2nd or 3rd. These guys have never put in a consistent enough effort over 82 games to win a division like the Atlantic. Especially against bottom feeders which we decide aren’t worth our time for some reason.

Not that it matters; they can finish in a WC spot for all I care. As long as they do damage in the postseason.
 
Jamason said:
Last four seasons Nylander's % is 13.9 - last year 13.7. Tavares as a Leaf 13.3 - last year 13.1. Brodie as a Leaf 4.0 (career 5.8) - last year 3.4. Gio as a Leaf 4.4 (career 6.8) - last year 3.7.

Why if the regress is to the norm is it negative?

(Couldn't find Samsonov's shooting %.)
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I am not referring to pure goals. Brodie and Gio aren't pure goals. I am talking overall impact. Brodie/Gio/Tavares were all worse in the playoffs than they were in the regular season and given their age it is reasonable to expect them to be worse in the regular season next year than they were this year.

Given Nylander's career trajectory it is more likely than not that this year was his career year. Similarly it is more likely that Samsonov is closes to his career average than a top 10 goalie in the league. I'm also not expecting Matthews to jump back up to 60 goals, I could see him being a consistent 50 goal scorer which is off set by subtracting 10 from Tavares/Nylander's total goals.
 
Jamason said:
He's saying two regress, three maybe, and two (the best two) stay the same or get better.

Nylander's 27. His career trajectory over the last three seasons:
his goals have gone from 17 to 34 to 40
his assists have gone from 26 to 46 to 47
his points have gone from 43 to 80 to 87
his ppg has gone from .82 to .99 to 1.06
his even strength goals have gone from 13 to 21 to 31
his even strength points have gone from 31 to 49 to 59
his shooting % has gone from 12.8 to 13.3 to 13.7

Why do you think that was "more likely that was his career season"?
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24-26 is generally the peak of a players career in today's NHL. Nylander's 27 now. I am not saying he's going to be a bum but I do think his production will start to taper off. I think the expectation should be 80 points/35 goals - not 40 goals and somewhere between 85-90 points.

Jamason said:
Don't have to look long or far - Tavares turned 28 at the start of his career year.
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Is it fair to use Tavares as a comparison to Willy here though when Tavares entire career trajectory changed that season when he left the Islanders where he was the best offensive player and joined a team where he was the 3rd best offensive player? Nylander is already in a favorable spot for putting up points.
 
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Dekes For Days said:
Bunting, Kerfoot, Engvall, Malgin, ZAR, NAK, Muzzin, Holl, Sandin, probably Murray off that list, and the in-season additions of Schenn, O'Rielly, Acciari, and Gustafsson.
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Most of the players you listed were either trash or constantly hurt.

Bunting good but a liability due to being a ref target.

Kerfoot trash

Engvall trash

Malgin trash

ZAR irrelevant

NAK trash

Muzzin Hurt

Holl trash is not enough

Sandin good but inconsistent

Murray constantly injured

Schenn to much for long

ROR is a big loss

Accari has been upgraded on.

Gus barely played
 
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IPS said:
That is definitely a Dubas team, that's for sure. We need to move on from that style of team in the worst of way.

Nothing strikes fear into the opposition like an Engvall-Kerfoot-Jarnkrok line :laugh:
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We will be OK once the mourning period is over
 
Not necessarily disagreeing with the sentiment that improving after 27 is more unusual than the norm but the 2 in history intuitively seems low.

Looking at the current team over the past few years - Tavares had his career year in goals and points as a 28 year old. One of his team mates the past 2 years is Mark Giordano who set his career high in points en route to his only Norris trophy at age 34 with Calgary prior to coming to Toronto. Another team mate of theirs was Zach Hyman - Toronto's loss was Edmonton's gain as Zach went to Edmonton for the 22-23 season putting up a career 83 points in his 30 year old season. A team mate who assisted him in that accomplishment was Ryan Nugent Hopkins who in his 29 year old season smashed his prior career bests with a 104 point season.

A major question regarding Tavares has been for his cap hit - was he worth the additional salary compared to his predecessor, previous second line center Nazem Kadri who was traded after Tavares' first season with Toronto. In his second season after the trade, Kadri had a career 87 point season with Colorado as a 31 year old, winning a Stanley cup. Ironically, part of the main difficulties during Kadri's time with Toronto was getting past Boston in the playoffs, a task made more difficult by their top players seeming to improve with age. Brad Marchand scored his first point per game season at 28 - scoring 6 more straight between 29 and 34 - peaking with a 100 point season in his 30 year old season. That season also saw Patrice Bergeron reach his career high in points at 79 (in just 65 games) as a 33 year old and David Krecji match a career high 73 points as a 32 year old. They likely were following the lead of their captain - Zdeno Chara who first reached the 50 point plateau (and his only Norris trophy) at age 30, 10 years earlier.

While unlikely, Toronto fans are likely hoping their stars age like Joe Pavelski - who finally breached the 80 point barrier for the first time in his career in 21-22 as a 37 year old, although one could argue his career year was his 41 goal season at age 29.
Confucius said:
If you search for a long time you may find 1 or 2 players in the entire history of the NHL that had a career year after 27 but I think there isn’t any, zero, so there is that.
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Based on the moves Treliving has made thus far in conjunction with our division rivals, I believe we should be considered a favorite to win the division.

That being said, our goaltending situation will play a critical role moving forward. Whether it be Samsonov or Woll, or a combination of both, we will need stellar goaltending throughout the regular season to achieve the goal of winning the division.
 
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Clark4Ever said:
Based on the moves Treliving has made thus far in conjunction with our division rivals, I believe we should be considered a favorite to win the division.

That being said, our goaltending situation will play a critical role moving forward. Whether it be Samsonov or Holl, or a combination of both, we will need stellar goaltending throughout the regular season to achieve the goal of winning the division.
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If Holl comes back as a goaltender we are ROYALLY f***ed
 
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That roster looks like favorite for the cup if you ask me. Don't listen to these vanilla liking haters.
 
Americanadian said:
24-26 is generally the peak of a players career in today's NHL. Nylander's 27 now. I am not saying he's going to be a bum but I do think his production will start to taper off. I think the expectation should be 80 points/35 goals - not 40 goals and somewhere between 85-90 points.


Is it fair to use Tavares as a comparison to Willy here though when Tavares entire career trajectory changed that season when he left the Islanders where he was the best offensive player and joined a team where he was the 3rd best offensive player? Nylander is already in a favorable spot for putting up points.
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And yet Matthews, only a year younger, will improve ?

Let's just say you seem to be way too sceptical for my taste.

And I didn't say Tavares was a comparable. Someone said I would be hard pressed to find a player, and I just pointed out there was one currently on our own team.
 
leafhky88 said:
Not necessarily disagreeing with the sentiment that improving after 27 is more unusual than the norm but the 2 in history intuitively seems low.

Looking at the current team over the past few years - Tavares had his career year in goals and points as a 28 year old. One of his team mates the past 2 years is Mark Giordano who set his career high in points en route to his only Norris trophy at age 34 with Calgary prior to coming to Toronto. Another team mate of theirs was Zach Hyman - Toronto's loss was Edmonton's gain as Zach went to Edmonton for the 22-23 season putting up a career 83 points in his 30 year old season. A team mate who assisted him in that accomplishment was Ryan Nugent Hopkins who in his 29 year old season smashed his prior career bests with a 104 point season.

A major question regarding Tavares has been for his cap hit - was he worth the additional salary compared to his predecessor, previous second line center Nazem Kadri who was traded after Tavares' first season with Toronto. In his second season after the trade, Kadri had a career 87 point season with Colorado as a 31 year old, winning a Stanley cup. Ironically, part of the main difficulties during Kadri's time with Toronto was getting past Boston in the playoffs, a task made more difficult by their top players seeming to improve with age. Brad Marchand scored his first point per game season at 28 - scoring 6 more straight between 29 and 34 - peaking with a 100 point season in his 30 year old season. That season also saw Patrice Bergeron reach his career high in points at 79 (in just 65 games) as a 33 year old and David Krecji match a career high 73 points as a 32 year old. They likely were following the lead of their captain - Zdeno Chara who first reached the 50 point plateau (and his only Norris trophy) at age 30, 10 years earlier.

While unlikely, Toronto fans are likely hoping their stars age like Joe Pavelski - who finally breached the 80 point barrier for the first time in his career in 21-22 as a 37 year old, although one could argue his career year was his 41 goal season at age 29.
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Interesting stuff. Nice work, quality post!
 
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Jamason said:
And yet Matthews, only a year younger, will improve ?

Let's just say you seem to be way too sceptical for my taste.

And I didn't say Tavares was a comparable. Someone said I would be hard pressed to find a player, and I just pointed out there was one currently on our own team.
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I think Matthews can be expected to get 50 - I don’t think he’ll ever hit 60 again. Who is the last player to hit 60 goals twice?
 
Jamason said:
Which is irrelevant since we're talking about 40, not 60.

Where do you think we'll finish?
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You asked me why I think Matthews can improve upon 40 goals if he’s already 26. That was his lowest goal rate since his rookie season. I am not sure why you think the subject you brought up is irrelevant.

I think the Leafs fall between 100-105 points.
 
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