Leafs favorite for the Atlantic division this year?

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think the sabres take bruins spot and leafs vs panthers battle for 1 and 2

WC maybe for tampa

Boston isn't going to drop 40 points

 

[hamzarocks]

Boston isn't going to drop 40 points

I think they are done

Krejci probably retires, bergeron and marchand both falling off

They finish with mid 90s is my prediction and just miss WC2

 

[CabanaBoy5]

People have been predicting the downfall of the Bruins since I joined this website.

Division is wide open, but I think we're as poised to backslide as any team in the division. Our D isn't very good and our goaltending is enormously suspect. JT is a year older and Marner has a new group of demons taking up residence in his noggin. We could win it just as easily as we miss the playoffs. We've stumbled out of the gate the last two years and I think Keefe is in serious danger of losing the room if he hasn't already, which I say as an indictment of our core just as much as this ineffectual coach.

I'd argue the two Floridian teams are the favourites. Bruins will depend entirely on Bergeron and Krejci, but if they're back, watch out for the revenge tour. I don't expect the Sens, Wings, or Sabres to be ahead of us, but I think the division could be pretty strong this year and it's going to challenge the Leafs to be at our best, which I don't think we are this year.

If you take a negative view, then every team in our division can miss the playoffs. But being realistic, looking at the analytics, and just plain common sense, we should be top 2 in the division. Your claim that our D isn't very good should be qualified. They are not a Stanley Cup championship defence (yet), but they are no worse than they were before the trade deadline, which had us 2nd in the division. Klingberg over Holl is an upgrade, McCabe over Sandin is an upgrade. They have enough talent and scoring to be better than last year given the team prior to the TDL.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

We're probably going to be a bit worse, unless Knies or Woll really excels, but we also likely have a better chance to win the division because of the other top teams in our division falling off more.

Depends on your definition of excel, but I see no reason Knies can't score 20 goals and 40-45 points health permitting of course

I think they are done

Krejci probably retires, bergeron and marchand both falling off

They finish with mid 90s is my prediction and just miss WC2

I would enjoy that tremendously.

But that is a 40 point drop that's unrealistic

 

[Buds17]

They arguably have as good of a chance to pull off this feat now as they've ever had with members of this group. Consider me cautiously optimistic about their chances.

 

[Nineteen67]

They may win the Atlantic and lose in the first round and it not be considered an upset.

 

[WillyC]

President’s trophy… Auston and Willy Styles playing for their next contracts.

Could be edge of our seat all season long… hopes can’t get much higher than this.

 

[weems]

We're probably going to be a bit worse, unless Knies or Woll really excels, but we also likely have a better chance to win the division because of the other top teams in our division falling off more.

What about factoring in that Matthews should be better unless you expect him to shoot at a 12.2% clip again?

12.2% vs 17.2/18.5/16.2 the previous three seasons is quite substantial.

 

[PromisedLand]

at the start of the season last year nobody expected boston to have the season they did

Leafs D and goalie situation are still not the strongest IMO; lets tone down the expectations a bit.

 

[Americanadian]

What about factoring in that Matthews should be better unless you expect him to shoot at a 12.2% clip again?

12.2% vs 17.2/18.5/16.2 the previous three seasons is quite substantial.

Matthews will regress positively meanwhile it's fair to expect that to be cancelled out by negative regression from Nylander, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Tavares, Brodie, Giordano.

 

[TorMapleJays]

But that is a 40 point drop that's unrealistic

It depends on which data point is considered the outlier. You could argue that last year was the outlier and this year they fall back to the mean.

 

[weems]

Matthews will regress positively meanwhile it's fair to expect that to be cancelled out by negative regression from Nylander, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Tavares, Brodie, Giordano.

On that list I'd say I agree with Tavares, Giordano, possibly Samsonov, less so with Brodie, Jarnkrok and Nylander is very debatable and I can see him holding last years level for awhile.

Matthews is one of the best players in the league when healthy and last season his goal scoring ability wasn't anywhere close to the same.

If he gets back to MVP level it puts our team upside into a whole other category.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I think we win it and beat the Habs by at least 8 goals once.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Matthews will regress positively meanwhile it's fair to expect that to be cancelled out by negative regression from Nylander, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Tavares, Brodie, Giordano.

I see no reason Nylander can't put up similar goal and point totals

 

[Sypher04]

I’d certainly expect us to be top 2, with a good chance at 1.

 

[Trapper]

Seems like we’re primed to win the division and meet the Dubas Pens wildcard. Cause why not.

 

[Sypher04]

It depends on which data point is considered the outlier. You could argue that last year was the outlier and this year they fall back to the mean.

I agree with this to an extent, but I think a 40 point drop is likely still pushing it.

Last year came out of nowhere, even with their roster intact, I’d have little confidence they could repeat what they accomplished.

Add to that Hall is out, Bergeron and Kreijci are both expected to not return. Their center ice is a mess with no cap space to do anything. Swayman arb award could force them unto yet another cap move.

This all said, they still have several good players, most notably on the backend. They’ll win games.

 

[Americanadian]

On that list I'd say I agree with Tavares, Giordano, possibly Samsonov, less so with Brodie, Jarnkrok and Nylander is very debatable and I can see him holding last years level for awhile.

Matthews is one of the best players in the league when healthy and last season his goal scoring ability wasn't anywhere close to the same.

If he gets back to MVP level it puts our team upside into a whole other category.

So if 4 players regress and 1 gets better that makes the team overall better? I don't see how that works.

I see no reason Nylander can't put up similar goal and point totals

It's more likely that was his career season than not - given his age and career trajectory.

 

[LeafGrief]

Boston will take a step back naturally as they can't get any better than last year. If they lose both Bergeron and Krejci to go along with Bertuzzi, Orlov, Hathaway etc. (I know that all three were just trade deadline acquisitions), then it'd be expected for them to be much lower than last year. Also unlikely that Ullmark is as good. That said, I still peg them as a top 3 team in the division.

To me the top 3 is probably some combination of Toronto, Boston, and Florida. I'd say Tampa is still a WC team and wouldn't surprise me if Buffalo snags a spot this year, too.

They can drop 25 points and still conceivably win the division. They were the best team in hockey en route to a historic season before they added the rentals. If Bergeron and/or Krejci aren't back they're thin up the middle and will take a step back, but they've got a lot of room to step back.

I think Tampa is a far better team than we are. They have Vasilevskiy and a much stronger defense, not to mention all that talent up front. They were weaker last year, likely due to three finals runs in a row. They're the best team in the division on paper and have the experience to win as many games as they want. Really just depends on how hard they push for regular season success.

Short of season and/or career ending injury the idea that the Leafs miss the playoffs is ridiculous

Good teams miss every year.

If you take a negative view, then every team in our division can miss the playoffs. But being realistic, looking at the analytics, and just plain common sense, we should be top 2 in the division. Your claim that our D isn't very good should be qualified. They are not a Stanley Cup championship defence (yet), but they are no worse than they were before the trade deadline, which had us 2nd in the division. Klingberg over Holl is an upgrade, McCabe over Sandin is an upgrade. They have enough talent and scoring to be better than last year given the team prior to the TDL.

Every team in hockey can miss the playoffs every year. That's why we play the regular season.

There is nothing common sense about us being top2 in the division. The Lightning are a juggernaut if they feel like it, the Panthers put their team together last year and have most of their players back. The Bruins had a historic season and may yet have most of their team (they were historic pre-rentals) back. We have a good squad, but we have long stretches of trouble every year and we won't be adding much at the deadline this year because the cupboards are completely bare. Top 2 is possible, we have plenty of talent, but we are far from a slam dunk because we play in a stacked division that is only getting better.

Giordano falling off a cliff is a downgrade, Keefe rode him hard last year, and Brodie will need to return to form. Our D may be better than last year's pre-deadline, but without a Muzzin replacement arguing about whether the 4's and 5's are better is an academic exercise that's ultimately irrelevant. We had a great defense for a while with a healthy Rielly, Muzzin, and Brodie, and now we have Rielly, an iffy Brodie, and then hopes and prayers that XYZ player will punch above their weight.

We do have the talent and scoring to be better than last year, but we also have massive holes on the back end, a still unproven goaltending solution (without a contract), and this team will go the way of the core boys anyways. If Marner and Matthews shoot the lights out, we're fine. If they don't, we're far from locks for anything.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I'll believe it when I see it. Too often this franchise has some issue or other holding them back from truly eclipsing the heights of the division. Poor starts to the regular season, shoddy goaltending, injury trouble, whatever. And even more often some other Atlantic team decides to be unbeatable for the majority of the season and races to the top of the division, never to be passed.

Anything is possible but history tells me some other f***ing team is going to have a season we’re more things go right for them than us. Tampa may be due for a bounce back great regular season after finally getting a restful offseason after so many years. Or maybe Florida rides their Finals run and a healthier season sees them back at the top. Or hell maybe Buffalo takes off this year.

 

[Fogelhund]

The top 3 forwards in scoring, that are no longer with the team, were Bunting(49 points), Kerfoot (32 points) and Engvall (30 points TOR/NYI)

The full season replacements are Bertuzzi, Domi and Knies. Honestly, that's an improved group offensively.

We also had a terrible time with injuries last year. We were second in the league in man games lost last year, had a patchwork D for times, and at G. Do we expect that to be the same this year, or would be expect to be more around league average?

So much goes into where a team will end up in the year, and a bunch of it comes down to luck.

The other thing is these rosters aren't complete as of yet.... Does Bergeron come back? Do we make trades? When do Ekblad and Montour come back from their surgeries/injury? Ekblad is recovering from a broken foot and shoulder surgery. Maurice said one other player won't be ready for regular season, and speculatively, that appears to be Montour.... anyone look at their D without these guys? Tampa lost their 4th, 5th and 7th top scorers (Hagel, Killorn, Colton), plus Perry, who was useful as a 4th liner. Their replacements are Conor Sheary, Josh Archibald, Luke Glendening and Logan Brown.

It seems probable that we should be a top 2 team in this division, and with some luck, Matthews being healthy, the top team.

 

[Fogelhund]

They can drop 25 points and still conceivably win the division. They were the best team in hockey en route to a historic season before they added the rentals. If Bergeron and/or Krejci aren't back they're thin up the middle and will take a step back, but they've got a lot of room to step back.

I think Tampa is a far better team than we are. They have Vasilevskiy and a much stronger defense, not to mention all that talent up front.

Stamkos, Point, Kucherov

Killorn, Hagel, Colton, Perry... replaced with Conor Sheary, Josh Archibald, Luke Glendening and Logan Brown.

Also returning, Cirelli (29pts), Paul(32pts) and Jeannot(18pts).

Yes, plenty of talent in the top 3... and not much else...

 

[Notsince67]

It doesn’t matter. They will just choke to a wildcard team like Buffalo or Ottawa or Pittsburgh just like they did in 2021. None of the additions matter one iota as long as the core is still here. I mean it would kinda interesting to see them finish 1st, but I just don’t think it matters with this core group. They will find a way to lose. They will just get outworked once again by a less talented team.

Better give up now. Raptors are always looking for new fans

 

[Rob Brown]

They can drop 25 points and still conceivably win the division. They were the best team in hockey en route to a historic season before they added the rentals. If Bergeron and/or Krejci aren't back they're thin up the middle and will take a step back, but they've got a lot of room to step back.

I think Tampa is a far better team than we are. They have Vasilevskiy and a much stronger defense, not to mention all that talent up front. They were weaker last year, likely due to three finals runs in a row. They're the best team in the division on paper and have the experience to win as many games as they want. Really just depends on how hard they push for regular season success.

Sure, any of Toronto/Boston/Tampa/Florida could realistically win. I think it's the best division in the league.

That said, if Boston loses their top two C's, I can see them taking a step back and finishing in the 2 or 3 spot. Who would even be their 1C and 2C? I also forgot Hall is gone as well, so that's another good player they lost.

In terms of Tampa, yes they are definitely better in net and on the back end, but they've also lost a number of pieces, although I think they are better suited at replacing internally than Boston is.

 

[wc17]

You can look at his projections from last year too, not exactly great. He had the Leafs at 98 points

So you’re saying he didn’t predict MUCH lower projections than last year like Mess said? Shocking haha

If we want to look at the same time in July last year as this year it’s still much lower than what he predicts this year.