Leafs favorite for the Atlantic division this year?

[Rob Brown]

So you’re saying he didn’t predict MUCH lower projections than last year like Mess said? Shocking haha

If we want to look at the same time in July last year as this year it’s still much lower than what he predicts this year.

A lot of really bad misses compared to how last season actually went lol

 

[666]

So if 4 players regress and 1 gets better that makes the team overall better? I don't see how that works.

If that one player is a superstar who had a horrible season and the others don't regress by much then it's possible, but in your quote you're not accounting for Knies, Bertuzzi and Domi either. You accounted for them in your silly projections but you know how silly they are.

A strong season by Matthews, small regressions due to age of the older guys, the addition by subtraction of guys like Bunting, the addition of Domi, Knies, Bertuzzi, Robertson (all left hand shots) and factoring in the top teams in the division regressing, the Leafs SHOULD be better. BUT it all depends on injuries and goaltending so everyone making predictions is wasting their time.

 

[LeafGrief]

Sure, any of Toronto/Boston/Tampa/Florida could realistically win. I think it's the best division in the league.

That said, if Boston loses their top two C's, I can see them taking a step back and finishing in the 2 or 3 spot. Who would even be their 1C and 2C? I also forgot Hall is gone as well, so that's another good player they lost.

In terms of Tampa, yes they are definitely better in net and on the back end, but they've also lost a number of pieces, although I think they are better suited at replacing internally than Boston is.

If they lose their top2 C's, I think they're probably a wild card competitor. Bergeron is the straw that stirs the drink there and they don't have a replacement Captain who can do what he does. It's probably McAvoy for them and no doubt he's learned a lot from Chara and Bergeron, but I agree that going from Bergeron to Zacha as 1C is too much for a team to weather in addition to losing their central pillar and best player.

Bruins are a defense factory, probably the best in the league at it. They always pull some prospect out of college that they drafted in the fourth round three years ago and put him on the 2nd pair. Drives me mental. Tampa's pretty good at internal development, always pulling out a forward and a defender out of their system and turning them into contributors. Who the heck is Perbix??

See below for more comments on Tampa, I think they're going to be just fine and will probably improve due to their main guys getting an offseason to recover. They're a modern dynasty with the core still intact, they're a huge threat. Our Leafs have built an offense around four guys for the last half decade and been close to the top of the league in scoring, the Lightning have done it too and can absolutely do it again this year.

Stamkos, Point, Kucherov

Killorn, Hagel, Colton, Perry... replaced with Conor Sheary, Josh Archibald, Luke Glendening and Logan Brown.

Also returning, Cirelli (29pts), Paul(32pts) and Jeannot(18pts).

Yes, plenty of talent in the top 3... and not much else...

Hagel had 64 points last year and has another year on his deal, and Cirelli is a two-way force and a core piece. Losing Killorn is absolutely a blow to their depth, but if you're going to bracket (points) you might as well point out that losing Ross Colton (32pts) and Corey Perry (25pts) isn't going to break them.

 

[Squiffy]

Seems like we’re primed to win the division and meet the Dubas Pens wildcard. Cause why not.

There we go. Leafy-est possible outcome is usually correct. Pens in 7, Sparks in net.

 

[Aashir]

I’ve said they win, but they love dropping Tuesday night games to Arizona, those easy points are what get you to the top of the division

 

[Fogelhund]

If they lose their top2 C's, I think they're probably a wild card competitor. Bergeron is the straw that stirs the drink there and they don't have a replacement Captain who can do what he does. It's probably McAvoy for them and no doubt he's learned a lot from Chara and Bergeron, but I agree that going from Bergeron to Zacha as 1C is too much for a team to weather in addition to losing their central pillar and best player.

Bruins are a defense factory, probably the best in the league at it. They always pull some prospect out of college that they drafted in the fourth round three years ago and put him on the 2nd pair. Drives me mental. Tampa's pretty good at internal development, always pulling out a forward and a defender out of their system and turning them into contributors. Who the heck is Perbix??

See below for more comments on Tampa, I think they're going to be just fine and will probably improve due to their main guys getting an offseason to recover. They're a modern dynasty with the core still intact, they're a huge threat. Our Leafs have built an offense around four guys for the last half decade and been close to the top of the league in scoring, the Lightning have done it too and can absolutely do it again this year.


Hagel had 64 points last year and has another year on his deal, and Cirelli is a two-way force and a core piece. Losing Killorn is absolutely a blow to their depth, but if you're going to bracket (points) you might as well point out that losing Ross Colton (32pts) and Corey Perry (25pts) isn't going to break them.

Somehow missed Hagel on Capfriendly. Thanks for the correction.

 

[Nineteen67]

It doesn’t matter. They will just choke to a wildcard team like Buffalo or Ottawa or Pittsburgh just like they did in 2021. None of the additions matter one iota as long as the core is still here. I mean it would kinda interesting to see them finish 1st, but I just don’t think it matters with this core group. They will find a way to lose. They will just get outworked once again by a less talented team.

We know there are going to be changes to all the rosters, but as of now, losing to any of those teams wouldn’t be considered a major upset outside of the Leafs media market.

 

[123offtheglass]

Boston has a couple major questions marks between Bergeron & Krejci but I’d still bet on them.

If they’re not back, I’d bet on the Leafs taking the Atlantic with no real front runner from that division in the playoffs.

 

[Americanadian]

If that one player is a superstar who had a horrible season and the others don't regress by much then it's possible, but in your quote you're not accounting for Knies, Bertuzzi and Domi either. You accounted for them in your silly projections but you know how silly they are.

A strong season by Matthews, small regressions due to age of the older guys, the addition by subtraction of guys like Bunting, the addition of Domi, Knies, Bertuzzi, Robertson (all left hand shots) and factoring in the top teams in the division regressing, the Leafs SHOULD be better. BUT it all depends on injuries and goaltending so everyone making predictions is wasting their time.

Gio and Brodie were very good during the regular season last year. Undoubtedly the Leafs top 2 defenseman during the regular season. They were not good in the playoffs. If they play to that form that will outweigh any regression by Matthews.

Bertuzzi will have a similar overall impact to Bunting, as he has most of his career. Domi will be a worse Kerfoot - more offense but a tire fire defensively. Knies should be awesome but you shouldn't expect too much from him. Robertson is hit or miss to even make the team.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Team doesnt even lokk better than last year

 

[notDatsyuk]

Boston will by default because they aren't going to put up 135 points again that's not going to happen.

I still have them top 3 in the Atlantic though.

Tampa already has taken a step back

They won't hit 135 points again. A step back for Boston is one thing, but they have to drop 20% to fall behind the Leafs.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Short of season and/or career ending injury the idea that the Leafs miss the playoffs is ridiculous

All it would take is for Sam to win arbitration and Leafs decide not to sign him, and Woll struggle as the #1.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Matthews will regress positively meanwhile it's fair to expect that to be cancelled out by negative regression from Nylander, Jarnkrok, Samsonov, Tavares, Brodie, Giordano.

Last four seasons Nylander's % is 13.9 - last year 13.7. Tavares as a Leaf 13.3 - last year 13.1. Brodie as a Leaf 4.0 (career 5.8) - last year 3.4. Gio as a Leaf 4.4 (career 6.8) - last year 3.7.

Why if the regress is to the norm is it negative?

(Couldn't find Samsonov's shooting %.)

 

[notDatsyuk]

It depends on which data point is considered the outlier. You could argue that last year was the outlier and this year they fall back to the mean.

Their mean from the three previous seasons works out to 109 points. Including last year it works out to 115 points.

 

[notDatsyuk]

So if 4 players regress and 1 gets better that makes the team overall better? I don't see how that works.


It's more likely that was his career season than not - given his age and career trajectory.

He's saying two regress, three maybe, and two (the best two) stay the same or get better.

Nylander's 27. His career trajectory over the last three seasons:
his goals have gone from 17 to 34 to 40
his assists have gone from 26 to 46 to 47
his points have gone from 43 to 80 to 87
his ppg has gone from .82 to .99 to 1.06
his even strength goals have gone from 13 to 21 to 31
his even strength points have gone from 31 to 49 to 59
his shooting % has gone from 12.8 to 13.3 to 13.7

Why do you think that was "more likely that was his career season"?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

All it would take is for Sam to win arbitration and Leafs decide not to sign him, and Woll struggle as the #1.

Unless he's gets 4.6 they can't decide not to sign him.

Even If they did They'd go get somebody else.

Woll and his 10 career games would not be #1

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

They won't hit 135 points again. A step back for Boston is one thing, but they have to drop 20% to fall behind the Leafs.

Even If they dropped 25 points that would put them at 110 points, I don't see how that's unrealistic especially if Bergeron and Krejci do leave, given what else they have lost.

Leafs had 111 points, I don't see how that's unrealistic for them to hit again, especially since ROR aside, that one hurts.

But aside from ROR, you could argue that Toronto has upgraded on nearly everything they lost.

Lost Bunting you got Bertuzzi.

You lost Kerfoot you got Domi

You lost Holl you got Klingberg that's likely a pure offensive upgrade but they needed that on defense.

You lost Accari, you got Jarnkrok sliding into his spot plus you got Matthew Knies.

You lost Simmonds you got Reaves that's a year to long but it is better.

You lost Schenn his replacement like comes at the deadline potentially from Calgary via Tanev or Zadorov.

I don't see why 110 points for Boston and 111 points for Toronto is unrealistic.

 

[Racer88]

Boston likely takes a step back, Tampa has gotten worse, we should still be a top 5 team. I doubt one of the young teams comes out and takes the division.

The implication of winning it is pretty big. They get a wildcard team in round 1 and not Tampa or Boston.

It doesn’t make any difference if they match up with a wild card team or a top team, remember when the got sent golfing by Montreal

 

[notDatsyuk]

Unless he's gets 4.6 they can't decide not to sign him.

Even If they did They'd go get somebody else.

Woll and his 10 career games would not be #1

I'm well aware of the 4.6 number, that was the point. And hopefully if that happened we wouldn't go with Woll, but that's all it would take.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Even If they dropped 25 points that would put them at 110 points, I don't see how that's unrealistic especially if Bergeron and Krejci do leave, given what else they have lost.

Leafs had 111 points, I don't see how that's unrealistic for them to hit again, especially since ROR aside, that one hurts.

But aside from ROR, you could argue that Toronto has upgraded on nearly everything they lost.

Lost Bunting you got Bertuzzi.

You lost Kerfoot you got Domi

You lost Holl you got Klingberg that's likely a pure offensive upgrade but they needed that on defense.

You lost Accari, you got Jarnkrok sliding into his spot plus you got Matthew Knies.

You lost Simmonds you got Reaves that's a year to long but it is better.

You lost Schenn his replacement like comes at the deadline potentially from Calgary via Tanev or Zadorov.

I don't see why 110 points for Boston and 111 points for Toronto is unrealistic.

Sorry - 19% , not 20%.

I didn't say it was impossible, just hard.

 

[Confucius]

He's saying two regress, three maybe, and two (the best two) stay the same or get better.

Nylander's 27. His career trajectory over the last three seasons:
his goals have gone from 17 to 34 to 40
his assists have gone from 26 to 46 to 47
his points have gone from 43 to 80 to 87if you search real hard you may find 2 players in the entire history of the league that had career years at 27 or older
his ppg has gone from .82 to .99 to 1.06
his even strength goals have gone from 13 to 21 to 31
his even strength points have gone from 31 to 49 to 59
his shooting % has gone from 12.8 to 13.3 to 13.7

Why do you think that was "more likely that was his career season"?

If you search for a long time you may find 1 or 2 players in the entire history of the NHL that had a career year after 27 but I think there isn’t any, zero, so there is that.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If you search for a long time you may find 1 or 2 players in the entire history of the NHL that had a career year after 27 but I think there isn’t any, zero, so there is that.

Don't have to look long or far - Tavares turned 28 at the start of his career year.

 

[socko]

Doug Gilmour finished 2nd for the Hart with 127 points at the age of 29.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If you search for a long time you may find 1 or 2 players in the entire history of the NHL that had a career year after 27 but I think there isn’t any, zero, so there is that.

John Tavares and Joe Sackic immediately come to mind

 

[ACC1224]

Don't have to look long or far - Tavares turned 28 at the start of his career year.

I know I peaked at 28.