Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[Pi]

People here constantly whine and bitch about the Leafs getting far too much attention but they fail to realize they are the reason why they are talked about so much.

Do an experiment, go to the main trade board and do a Ctrl + F search for the keyword "Point" or "Brayden" and you will see absolutely no discussion for a contract or offer sheet.

It's unclear to me why Marner is the #1 target for offer sheets when Point is the more likely candidate for one because Tampa is much tighter on the cap and there is no way they can afford to give Point a long term deal, if he signs in Tampa, it will 100% be a bridge contract and then couple years down the road, he'll be making more than McDavid when the American NHL contract is up for renewal.

If you're a smart GM, the guy you actually want to go after is Point.

If I am Dubas and someone offer sheets Marner for over 10.5M, I would gladly pass, take the four first round picks and turn around and offer sheet Point for more.

 

[Martin Skoula]

You keep on patronizing people when they bring up valid concerns with the legitimacy of these kinds of articles and then wonder why they come back at you with the same kind of vitriol when the truth comes out and it disproves the narrative that you and these writers loved to push.

What are the issues with the legitimacy of the methodology? Be specific.

So far you have the fact that he brought up a comparable to the Kadri suspension. Riveting and topical stuff, can't wait to hear more.

 

[Space umpire]

First. Yes. Contracts are determined primarily by production

Second. Yes. Kane has been Better than toews at all times. He was a higher draft pick. Higher ceiling. Produced more throughout their years. Toews is a big C. Kane is a small winger. That’s why people
Thought they were close.

Matthews has 50 more goals than Marner in 30’less games. He has led the league in multiple per game categories and is top 5
In goals. Marner has never even reached top 10 in points. Matthews was 2 in the league in goals and led the league 5 on 5 as a rookie. Playing with Hyman and brown he is elite.

If you think subjective opinions matter then hey Matthews has a Calder over Marner. 3 time all star and was 4th in the tsn players poll this year.

Of course that doesn’t count though

Please stop. I'm a Hawks fan reading this thread and am asking you to stop as you are making a fool of yourself. Kane and Toews while different are VERY MUCH equal stars in Chicago's cup years. Toews put up the numbers he did while also defending the oppositions top line PREVENTING goals. You are looking at stats and pretending you know what you're talking about.

 

[Space umpire]

Agreed. So really the crux of the negotiations are really about a small cap hit window between $10.569 million (an offersheet that has 4 first round picks going to Toronto) and $11.634 million (Austin Matthews' cap hit).

The wildcard would be if there is a team willing to lose 4 first round picks to acquire Marner for an even higher cap hit.

Agreed. Equal issue is length. I think he "knows" he can get right at 10.5m in an OS (2-1-1 comp) in a deal to take him right to UFA. Any money above 10.5 will be only in a Leaf contract and for agreeing to additional years.

 

[Tripod]

Matthews is a level above Marner. Marner is an elite talent too but he plays with another elite talent. Matthews plays with guys that aren't half as good as him and still produces. Marner has not shown that.

Are those numbers accurate?

NHL.com has McDavid with the most ES goals, Matthews 2nd. And the numbers don't match. Unless I am missing something?

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evGoals,goals

Someone else can verify all the other stats.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Are those numbers accurate?

NHL.com has McDavid with the most ES goals, Matthews 2nd. And the numbers don't match. Unless I am missing something?

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evGoals,goals

I often see her tweets, no idea who she is or why her tweets are being shown here. But a poster once posted her tweet here and passed a long as fact when she said I heard a rumour, and when asked was this true, the poster who posted it, said why would she lie. Really now....

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Why not? Matthews is the better player...

It doesnt matter what Marner wants, he has no leverage above ~10.6 per

Haha we will see

What was AM's leverage to get the contract he did? This is Dubas we are talking about. He hasnt done to well the last 2 big contracts. And from what ive seen on here and everywhere else, Leaf fans agree fully.

I havent seen so many Leaf fans on here actually as upset/pissed off as they were after those signings than when AM/Willy signed their insane deals. It was chaos

 

[Legion34]

The point is that they were equal stars in years despite Kane being the number one overall pick because toews is a big C.

Matthews is the big C AND scores more.
Matthews is clearly the better player. Who deserves more.

This is a leaf contract thread. Not a memory lane toews and Kane thread.

Production determines contracts. People want the leafs to fail so they try to suggest Marner is better and should make more.

 

[Tripod]

I often see her tweets, no idea who she is or why her tweets are being shown here. But a poster once posted her tweet here and passed a long as fact when she said I heard a rumour, and when asked was this true, the poster who posted it, said why would she lie. Really now....

Did you click on the link I provided?

Am I not correct in saying that McDavid leads the league in ES goals since Matthews entered the league, not Auston?

I do wish someone would check those other ones to check on the validity. Matthews is also not 4th in all situation goals like stated in that tweet.

 

[Tripod]

Production determines contracts. People want the leafs to fail so they try to suggest Marner is better and should make more.

Did Marner out produce Matthews this year?

Asking for a friend.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Funny to read how all of a sudden Marner apparently isnt quite as good as he was during the season now that he is up for a massive new contract

 

[Legion34]

Did Marner out produce Matthews this year?

Asking for a friend.

Overall totals. With Tavares. And 8 empty net points. Yes.

Goals. No.
Playoffs. No.

If Marner gets the Matthews money are you going to claim he is overpaid.

Like all the people who said Matthews was going to sign for 15 mill in Arizona?

Asking for a friend

 

[Bank Shot]

Dubas hasn't signed any of his stars to a bargain contract yet.

Don't see why he would start now.

I'll be pretty surprised if Marner comes in under $11.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Mitch Marner out performed John Tavares if you value assists more than Goals and wing more than center. It's absolute ludicrous that these threads are filled with people who haven't watched the leafs more than 5 times all season saying that the winger who had a career season playing with a center, who has routinely made his line mates look way better than they are, is some how the absolute best player on his team. He is a play making winger, he definitely benefits from getting ice time with two of the best goal scorers in the league. I'm not going to bother arguing this point any further because its like talking to a brick wall.

I was responding to a Maple Leafs fan who has previously made this comment in a thread about Barzal and Marner:

They've now both out-played John Tavares.

I think he has watched more than 5 Leafs games as well, and he came to this conclusion. I’ve watched well over 5 games and I’ve come to the same conclusion.

What are the issues with the legitimacy of the methodology? Be specific.

So far you have the fact that he brought up a comparable to the Kadri suspension. Riveting and topical stuff, can't wait to hear more.

My issue with his credibility is that I believe he is more of a fan with a check mark than he is an objective analyst. I provided some evidence

My issue with the methodology is he isn’t looking seriously enough at the Nylander comparison and the way that Toronto has been paying their players. It seems to me like he came to the conclusion that $9.16M for 6-7 years would be a fair contract for Marner, and that may be accurate, but he’s being dishonest with himself here if he honestly believes that is what Marner is taking.

 

[Tripod]

Overall totals. With Tavares. And 8 empty net points. Yes.

Goals. No.
Playoffs. No.

If Marner gets the Matthews money are you going to claim he is overpaid.

Like all the people who said Matthews was going to sign for 15 mill in Arizona?

Asking for a friend

I have said all along, 11 million x7 years is fair for Marner.

Less money AND more term than Matthews.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Did you click on the link I provided?

Am I not correct in saying that McDavid leads the league in ES goals since Matthews entered the league, not Auston?

I do wish someone would check those other ones to check on the validity. Matthews is also not 4th in all situation goals like stated in that tweet.

Her numbers are wrong. McDavid has more ES goals. Not sure why people keep quoting her.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Legion34]

Please stop. I'm a Hawks fan reading this thread and am asking you to stop as you are making a fool of yourself. Kane and Toews while different are VERY MUCH equal stars in Chicago's cup years. Toews put up the numbers he did while also defending the oppositions top line PREVENTING goals. You are looking at stats and pretending you know what you're talking about.

The point is that Kane has always out produced toews. Fans may subjectively think that they were equally important(which is basically impossible but ok). But that is based on defence etc.

This is the Marner contract thread. Not the memory lane thread. The leafs have a similar situation to the Chicago. Except the big no 1 c who plays with rookies scores more than the shifty winger who plays with veterans. Stars and hall of famers.

There is no argument for Marner to get Matthews money.

None.

 

[Legion34]

I have said all along, 11 million x7 years is fair for Marner.

Less money AND more term than Matthews.

Actually I think around that as well. At least in principle. Slightly less for longer term.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Are fans a little discouraged to have 3 forwards at the 11ish mill mark per year once Marner signs? It honestly worries the hell outta me. At the start of the year i was hoping Leafs would be a potential cup winner for Canada but these huge contracts terrify me

Honest question too

 

[Menzinger]

Dubas hasn't signed any of his stars to a bargain contract yet.

Don't see why he would start now.

I'll be pretty surprised if Marner comes in under $11.

Hes signed his contracts more or less within the market value of where they should be.

To make Marner the highest paid winger in the league would be unprecedented

 

[Subbanned]

Are those numbers accurate?

NHL.com has McDavid with the most ES goals, Matthews 2nd. And the numbers don't match. Unless I am missing something?

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evGoals,goals

Someone else can verify all the other stats.

See Corsica or Evolving wild which don't include empty net goals in their 5v5 total (aka no freebies). Matthews has scored more (non-freebie) EV goals than anyone in the league since he entered. All her numbers are accurate but NHL.com has a more basic approach so that's the difference you ran into. Matthews numbers are absolutely silly. The best goal scorer in the league hands down at EV strength with upside to boot. Jealous..

 

[Tripod]

Are fans a little discouraged to have 3 forwards at the 11ish mill mark per year once Marner signs? It honestly worries the hell outta me. At the start of the year i was hoping Leafs would be a potential cup winner for Canada but these huge contracts terrify me

Honest question too

If I am a Leafs fan, I don't care. Pay your stars, cut from a depth player. My only disappointment would be that Matthews did not sign for 7-8 years at that rate because that is what he deserved.

 

[Menzinger]

Haha we will see

What was AM's leverage to get the contract he did? This is Dubas we are talking about. He hasnt done to well the last 2 big contracts. And from what ive seen on here and everywhere else, Leaf fans agree fully.

I havent seen so many Leaf fans on here actually as upset/pissed off as they were after those signings than when AM/Willy signed their insane deals. It was chaos

To call those deals "insane" is pure hyperbole and just an indication you aren't to be taken seriously on this issue

 

[Tripod]

Hes signed his contracts more or less within the market value of where they should be.

To make Marner the highest paid winger in the league would be unprecedented

But that goes out the window when he made Matthews the 2nd highest paid player in the league and Matthews has never been top 20 in points. Or PPG.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Reportedly, San Jose offered over $13M to John Tavares. You’ve said it yourself that Marner outperformed Tavares this year.

You don’t think they would offer that kind of money to Marner? Or do you think Philly would offer more?

What an oddly specific thing to recall me having typed before.

Anyways, I think Philly would offer more. They're the least patient franchise around, have an abundance of money & cap space and they love their nonsensical contracts. I would be shocked if the Flyers don't throw an offersheet -or two, or three- at one of the big ticket RFAs.