Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[thomas vanek]

Crosby only makes 8.7 million. How can you pay MARNER more than CROSBY?!?!?

Lolololololol

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

1st in ev goals
1st in ev and all situation goals/60
5th in ev points/60
2nd in ev primary points/60.

And plays C.

Those are why Matthews should make more. Goal scoring is the most expensive attribute, playing C is the most expensive position, and scoring goals at even strength is the hardest thing to do in the game. And he doesn't play with an elite playdriving C on his line in John Tavares. (Spent most of his time this season 5v5 with Marleau and Kapanen)

Marner is a fantastic player - but he isn't Matthews.

What time frame are these statistics from?

Read Jeff Veillette's deep dive into the Marner contract debate. It looks at a number of comparables and even discusses the Mattews deal and his comparables.

Let's talk about Mitch Marner

I just don't think that guy is taking an honest look at things. I think a lot of these advanced stats Leafs fans guys are letting their fandom get in the way of making an honest assessment of things.

I won't pretend that I read through that entire article, but I did skim it, and it's clear to me that he is a little biased. Look at these two quotes from that article:

I still think he's a player that makes a line better, and he certainly is the Robin to John Tavares' Batman, but that still makes him the sidekick in that equation.

What I could see happening is, once all is boiled down, Marner takes a vanity cap hit of $9.16 million per year, for 6 or 7 years.

Just doesn't feel like an honest assessment of things...

San Jose can only afford Marner if they let Karlsson walk.

Philadelphia will absolutely OS Marner if he's available July 1st. They have a history of signing players to maniacal deals that they have no intention of honouring. They're the only real threat, IMO.

Yeah, the Karlsson portion kinda goes without saying. I do think San Jose is also a threat. You and I both know they've been doing some pretty maniacal things of their own as of late.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

What time frame are these statistics from?



I just don't think that guy is taking an honest look at things. I think a lot of these advanced stats Leafs fans guys are letting their fandom get in the way of making an honest assessment of things.

I won't pretend that I read through that entire article, but I did skim it, and it's clear to me that he is a little biased. Look at these two quotes from that article:





Just doesn't feel like an honest assessment of things...



Yeah, the Karlsson portion kinda goes without saying. I do think San Jose is also a threat. You and I both know they've been doing some pretty maniacal things of their own as of late.

Past three seasons (since Matthews entered the league).

Jeff did a pretty damn good job honestly. I think marner and tavares helped eachother out. Its just because theres a narrative that Marner drove that line out there, so he tried to show that isn't the case. I don't think he was carried by any means, but one can't say Marner drove that line based on those numbers.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

What time frame are these statistics from?



I just don't think that guy is taking an honest look at things. I think a lot of these advanced stats Leafs fans guys are letting their fandom get in the way of making an honest assessment of things.

I won't pretend that I read through that entire article, but I did skim it, and it's clear to me that he is a little biased. Look at these two quotes from that article:





Just doesn't feel like an honest assessment of things...



Yeah, the Karlsson portion kinda goes without saying. I do think San Jose is also a threat. You and I both know they've been doing some pretty maniacal things of their own as of late.

LeT mE tElL yOu My ExPeRt OpInIoN bAsEd On My BrIeF sCrOlL tHrOuGh A tWeLvE pAgE aRtIcLe

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Past three seasons (since Matthews entered the league).

Jeff did a pretty damn good job honestly. I think marner and tavares helped eachother out. Its just because theres a narrative that Marner drove that line out there, so he tried to show that isn't the case. I don't think he was carried by any means, but one can't say Marner drove that line based on those numbers.

Those don't match the numbers that I see on Natural Stat Trick. The numbers that I see say that Matthews is 10th, with an ESP/60 of 2.71. They also say that Marner is 19th, with an ESP/60 of 2.56. They also say that Marner was also 3rd in the NHL this year with an ESP/60 of 3.23, while Matthews has never had an ESP/60 above 3.

What numbers does he even show that suggest that Marner didn't drive the line? The only one that I can see is his offensive impact per Micah McCurdy's model which suggests says that his offensive impact is only +1%. But those numbers also say that Patrick Kane's offensive impact is only +2%, and that Jonathan Toews' offensive impact is +15%. Are we also to believe that Toews is the true "line driver" on that line when those two play together? Or are we to believe that perhaps those numbers are a little flawed?

 

[steveat]

I think Marner signs 3 years 9 mill. Playing with JT probably gave him an extra 10-15 points for the year. JT was already a 40+ goal scorer without Marner....JT could have done the same thing with JVR on his line.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

LeT mE tElL yOu My ExPeRt OpInIoN bAsEd On My BrIeF sCrOlL tHrOuGh A tWeLvE pAgE aRtIcLe

Forgive me for not reading through all 12 pages of an article that was written by a guy who is basically a Maple Leafs fan with a blue check mark next to his name.

Jeff Veliette in particular? Yeah, let's take a look at some of his work.



7 Talking Points ahead of Leafs vs Bruins III

While our hearts don’t forgive the past and nervously await the big bad Bruins, there isn’t a rational reason to be scared of this series. The roster matchups are mostly favourable.

Again, these guys are basically HFLeafs posters with a blue check mark next to their names on Twitter. That doesn't mean they're idiots or that I wouldn't engage in discussions with them, but I'm also not going to read a 12 page article from them when it's clear where there biases are and it's clear they're not being entirely honest with themselves in the articles.

You can keep on reading their articles and assuming that everything they say is perfectly accurate and objective, but you're going to be disappointed when reality hits if you take their writing at face value.

 

[McFlyingV]

Marner is as you know an excellent player however Matthews is at least a cut above.
AM is a total franchise generational player. AM hasn't accomplished yet what Kane has but he is a true force

If AM is a total franchise generational player, then there must be one who enters the NHL every year. He is a star player, but lets not act like he's the 2nd best player in the league as he is being paid. He's not even a top 10 player in the NHL right now. Marner has every right to ask for money in the 10-11M range given that the GM he is negotiating with just gave AM 11.6x5. I'm assuming the Leafs would like to get Marner for 8 years which on its own drives up the AAV if you're paying for extra years. Dubas made a difficult situation for himself, and this is a rare situation where teams might actually consider an offer sheet given the compensation for a 10.5M contract.

 

[Coach Parker]

You think their GM would be comfortable not picking on the first round for almost thr next half decade?

And how would they pay McAvoy?

Boston has a lot of cap space given the deals that the top three are on, the price of Rask and the underwhelming seasons of the RFAs. Once you add Chara's cap hit coming down and the further increase of the salary cap you can see how they were comfortable giving Tavares 11.0 million and I'd imagine they'd give that to Marner to play the wing with Krejci and DeBrusk.

Then we can speculate if Marchand's comments about him getting paid earlier in the year was tampering.

To be clear, I don't see it happening but I was simply giving you a team with the cap space and contending depth to relinquish the 1sts, fit him in under their cap and still contend for the next 3-4 years.

 

[Pi]

It's funny watching Leafs fans talk about Marner negatively when his contract is coming up Couldn't stop talking about him last year. Funny how things change. Watching the 9.5 million comments is laughable. If he settles for that you got a steal.

It's not being negative, it's being smart. He doesn't deserve more than Kane, Kucherov or Stone. He's young and he will definitely be better in future but he's was in a perfect situation to break out. He's a winger and he's not going to be paid like Matthews.

Boston has a lot of cap space given the deals that the top three are on, the price of Rask and the underwhelming seasons of the RFAs. Once you add Chara's cap hit coming down and the further increase of the salary cap you can see how they were comfortable giving Tavares 11.0 million and I'd imagine they'd give that to Marner to play the wing with Krejci and DeBrusk.

Then we can speculate if Marchand's comments about him getting paid earlier in the year was tampering.

To be clear, I don't see it happening but I was simply giving you a team with the cap space and contending depth to relinquish the 1sts, fit him in under their cap and still contend for the next 3-4 years.

Marner wouldn't sign an offer sheet from Boston especially if it is designed to be around ~10.5M. The Leafs would just match it, yeah he would be overpaid by a million but it's better than him being on f***ing Boston.

Personally, I am hoping that the Islanders offer sheet him for 12M+. That would be perfect for the Leafs as those first round picks would have the best value to the Leafs and the cap space will give them the ability to solve all the problems and add to the line up.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Ya. There is no metric by which Marner outplayed matthews in that series.

Matthews has been the better player since 2015. There is no argument for Marner.

Matthews plays less time with lesser players in a more important position. And has outproduced marner.

If he was worth matthews money... wouldn’t he be getting paid matthews money?

Your GM is a moron hardly means anything.

 

[FinlandPanther]

It's not being negative, it's being smart. He doesn't deserve more than Kane, Kucherov or Stone. He's young and he will definitely be better in future but he's was in a perfect situation to break out. He's a winger and he's not going to be paid like Matthews.



Marner wouldn't sign an offer sheet from Boston especially if it is designed to be around ~10.5M. The Leafs would just match it, yeah he would be overpaid by a million but it's better than him being on ****ing Boston.

Personally, I am hoping that the Islanders offer sheet him for 12M+. That would be perfect for the Leafs as those first round picks would have the best value to the Leafs and the cap space will give them the ability to solve all the problems and add to the line up.

You do realize those contracts were signed at different times correct? Marner just put up 94 points. Kucherov took a huge discount, something Marner wont do. Matthews doesn't even deserve his money and Marner has a nice case for why he deserves just as much.

 

[Legion34]

You do realize those contracts were signed at different times correct? Marner just put up 94 points. Kucherov took a huge discount, something Marner wont do. Matthews doesn't even deserve his money and Marner has a nice case for why he deserves just as much.

Yes they were signed at different times..... When scoring has gone up dramatically. Marner was 11th in points this year with Tavares. Without he was 38th.

Marner has never been in the top 10 in scoring in any category.
Matthews was 2nd in the league in goals in his first year. He has produced goals at the same rate as ovechkin since entering the league....

Im not sure why someone is

Forgive me for not reading through all 12 pages of an article that was written by a guy who is basically a Maple Leafs fan with a blue check mark next to his name.

Jeff Veliette in particular? Yeah, let's take a look at some of his work.



7 Talking Points ahead of Leafs vs Bruins III



Again, these guys are basically HFLeafs posters with a blue check mark next to their names on Twitter. That doesn't mean they're idiots or that I wouldn't engage in discussions with them, but I'm also not going to read a 12 page article from them when it's clear where there biases are and it's clear they're not being entirely honest with themselves in the articles.

You can keep on reading their articles and assuming that everything they say is perfectly accurate and objective, but you're going to be disappointed when reality hits if you take their writing at face value.

you know, it probably would have been quicker to just read the article, or you know not comment on an article you didn't read? Discrediting an article based on a global opinion of the writer is one of the most basic logical fallacies.... Then again

There is no anti-leaf bias on hfboards.... I made a poll 3 years ago to prove it!

 

[Pi]

You do realize those contracts were signed at different times correct? Marner just put up 94 points. Kucherov took a huge discount, something Marner wont do. Matthews doesn't even deserve his money and Marner has a nice case for why he deserves just as much.

Matthews is a level above Marner. Marner is an elite talent too but he plays with another elite talent. Matthews plays with guys that aren't half as good as him and still produces. Marner has not shown that.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Yes they were signed at different times..... When scoring has gone up dramatically. Marner was 11th in points this year with Tavares. Without he was 38th.

Marner has never been in the top 10 in scoring in any category.
Matthews was 2nd in the league in goals in his first year. He has produced goals at the same rate as ovechkin since entering the league....

Im not sure why someone is



you know, it probably would have been quicker to just read the article, or you know not comment on an article you didn't read? Discrediting an article based on a global opinion of the writer is one of the most basic logical fallacies.... Then again

There is no anti-leaf bias on hfboards.... I made a poll 3 years ago to prove it!

Except I did read a good chunk of the article, including the conclusion, and it was enough to tell me that this guy isn’t being honest with himself here. He’s a fan with a blue check mark and his opinions shouldn’t be treated as any more or less valuable because of the blue check mark.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I love Dubas. His negotiating skills are legendary:

1. Alienate player by telling him he's not worth what he's worth.
2. Box yourself into a corner.
3. Cave.
4. Overpay player, give him exactly what he wants and then some.
5. State that you won't trade him after over paying him.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Yeah, the Karlsson portion kinda goes without saying. I do think San Jose is also a threat. You and I both know they've been doing some pretty maniacal things of their own as of late.

I'm confident that the Flyers would throw the most money at Marner. So, if it comes down to money and you can only sign one offersheet at a time, you sign with Philly. San Jose is probably 2nd or 3rd in the pecking order, IMO.

 

[Isignedupjustfothis]

Marner should make the same contract as Mathews.

Matthews plays the more important position but Marner is better.

It balances itself out.

Stone just got 9.5 and is older and likley to regress over his contract while not even being as good.

That is the comparable not a winger like Kane signed years ago.

If anyone can speak the Leafs language please translate this and communicate it to their fans.

Much appreciated.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Except I did read a good chunk of the article, including the conclusion, and it was enough to tell me that this guy isn’t being honest with himself here. He’s a fan with a blue check mark and his opinions shouldn’t be treated as any more or less valuable because of the blue check mark.

I rEaD tHe CoNcLuSiOn

 

[Martin Skoula]

I rEaD tHe CoNcLuSiOn

The author is pretty clearly biased and invented all of his stats, he likes both the Leafs and Nylander.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

The author is pretty clearly biased and invented all of his stats, he likes both the Leafs and Nylander.

I mean yeah its lazy for me to make the same patronizing joke twice in one thread but if he can't be bothered to actually read the article he has formed such strong opinions on I shouldn't have to think up a second way make fun of him right?

 

[LeafSteel]

Not going to bother reading this thread, but going to guess that every post from a non-Leafs fan is imploring the Leafs to pay Marner through the nose, and insisting that he only be offered top dollar to re-sign.

Amiright??? So freaking predictable.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I mean yeah its lazy for me to make the same patronizing joke twice in one thread but if he can't be bothered to actually read the article he has formed such strong opinions on I shouldn't have to think up a second way make fun of him right?

You keep on patronizing people when they bring up valid concerns with the legitimacy of these kinds of articles and then wonder why they come back at you with the same kind of vitriol when the truth comes out and it disproves the narrative that you and these writers loved to push.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I'm confident that the Flyers would throw the most money at Marner. So, if it comes down to money and you can only sign one offersheet at a time, you sign with Philly. San Jose is probably 2nd or 3rd in the pecking order, IMO.

Reportedly, San Jose offered over $13M to John Tavares. You’ve said it yourself that Marner outperformed Tavares this year.

You don’t think they would offer that kind of money to Marner? Or do you think Philly would offer more?

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Reportedly, San Jose offered over $13M to John Tavares. You’ve said it yourself that Marner outperformed Tavares this year.

You don’t think they would offer that kind of money to Marner? Or do you think Philly would offer more?

Mitch Marner out performed John Tavares if you value assists more than Goals and wing more than center. It's absolute ludicrous that these threads are filled with people who haven't watched the leafs more than 5 times all season saying that the winger who had a career season playing with a center, who has routinely made his line mates look way better than they are, is some how the absolute best player on his team. He is a play making winger, he definitely benefits from getting ice time with two of the best goal scorers in the league. I'm not going to bother arguing this point any further because its like talking to a brick wall.