Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[powerstuck]

Why would he take this and not just wait to be an RFA and get a way better offer. It makes no sense. You can sign him for just over $10 M and only give up 2 1sts, 1 2nd and a 3rd. This is part I feel like is missing from discussion unless people feel offer sheets are a ll a conspiracy thing.

I mean that's not much to give up for a kid who is a top 20 player for sure and maybe a top 10 or even a top 5.

Yeah, some teams, either their owners or fan base will never accept to finish a few years at the bottom to even get a chance at drafting a Marner caliber player.

Everyone would give two 20-to-32nd 1st round picks to get their hands on a top 5 player.

 

[Xanner]

I think the leafs will have offers of 4/6/7 /8 years with the money being as low as 8 million i don't see them offering a 5 year term and they will battle Marner's agent and hammer out a deal that helps the leafs fit everyone right now.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

What is that noise I hear? Oh yes the goal posts shuffling



It's called his teammate. Sorry this fantasy where Marner's agent believes Kane's contract is the only one in the world and rolls over is not reality.



Wait why is Matthews not a comparable because he plays a different position but Point suddenly is? Again them goal posts they are dancing.



Leon did not score 90 to get that contract and it is now two cap increases ago. There is thing called inflation you all seem to pretend does not exist.



Oh yes, Marner's agent will say, scoring increased! Of course! My client will now take less.

LOL get real.



So what do you call that bias of Leafs fans repeating without proof he will certainly get UNDER 10 and even 9? Weird how you don't have a word for that.

The majority of leafs fans arent saying under 9. Some might be, but be real, most are saying under 10.5.

Its not shuffling goal posts. I legitimately said the majority of people don't believe theyre going to be 10M dollar players, you gave a couple of quotes of people saying they might be to dismiss the idea that the majority don't believe they are. Do you struggle with comprehension?

I gave reasons why Matthews deal is less comparable to Marner than others (such as the Kane one). Surely Marner's agent will use Matthews deal, but Dubas will have MORE to use on their end of the negotiation, and explain why those ones are more relevant.

All the contracts are comparables, Matthews and Point. The context within is that Centres make more. So if a centre in Point makes 8.5 for example, it makes it difficult for a winger who put up similar production (and less goals) to ask for substantially more money than that. The idea is the same when Marner says he wants Matthews deal, and the leafs explain how Matthews gets more because of the position and goal scoring. Its the same concept. You're just incapable of applying the logic here.

Yes Leon scored less points, look where he was in league scoring that year vs Marner this year. And I'm not saying he should get less than Leon, i'm saying theyre closer than you would think given he plays C (allbeit split), signed 8 years (more UFA years bought than the presumable Marner contract), and had an insane playoffs.

Of course Marner's agent isn't going to ageee with all of the points. Dubas isn't going to agree with all the agent's Points. From an outside point of view, should scoring increasing this year not factor into a player's value? We're not discussing what Dubas and Marner's agent are gonna want - were discussing what the players value is.

 

[Captain Controversy]

The majority of leafs fans arent saying under 9. Some might be, but be real, most are saying under 10.5.

Its not shuffling goal posts. I legitimately said the majority of people don't believe theyre going to be 10M dollar players, you gave a couple of quotes of people saying they might be to dismiss the idea that the majority don't believe they are. Do you struggle with comprehension?

I gave reasons why Matthews deal is less comparable to Marner than others (such as the Kane one). Surely Marner's agent will use Matthews deal, but Dubas will have MORE to use on their end of the negotiation, and explain why those ones are more relevant.

All the contracts are comparables, Matthews and Point. The context within is that Centres make more. So if a centre in Point makes 8.5 for example, it makes it difficult for a winger who put up similar production (and less goals) to ask for substantially more money than that. The idea is the same when Marner says he wants Matthews deal, and the leafs explain how Matthews gets more because of the position and goal scoring. Its the same concept. You're just incapable of applying the logic here.

Yes Leon scored less points, look where he was in league scoring that year vs Marner this year. And I'm not saying he should get less than Leon, i'm saying theyre closer than you would think given he plays C (allbeit split), signed 8 years (more UFA years bought than the presumable Marner contract), and had an insane playoffs.

Of course Marner's agent isn't going to ageee with all of the points. Dubas isn't going to agree with all the agent's Points. From an outside point of view, should scoring increasing this year not factor into a player's value? We're not discussing what Dubas and Marner's agent are gonna want - were discussing what the players value is.

So give marner the same percentage of the cap that Leon got?

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

So give marner the same percentage of the cap that Leon got?

Depends on term of the contract. Is Marner getting 8 years? Term directly impacts the percentage of the cap that they should get.

If we're assuming the same term, Kane's 11% of the cap on his 2nd deal is probably as close to you get. 9.15M, give or take some. 9.5 seems somewhat reasonable when considering that comparable, does it not?

 

[BLONG7]

It sure seems like a potential mess for the Leafs. It sure seems like some think that MM's agent is going to dig in...........an offer sheet just might have to be signed, to see if the Leafs really want the kid to stay.

Is he their best player? Therin lies the issue. Most nights it seems he is their best player so they should be very careful as to what they say, in pointing out to the MM camp, why they feel he is not...

Get the popcorn.

 

[Eye Test]

He chose to sign last, there is only so much of the pie that's left once waiting for others to eat first. If what's left isn't enough then we will take the 4 1st round picks and go from there.

 

[sharkhawk]

Who is Matthews contract comparable. Only Crosby and malkin had a higher cap hit on a 5 year elf contract and Matthews isn’t near the players they were. Matthews should have been in the 12% range, which would still be higher than Kane/Toews/stamkos

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Who is Matthews contract comparable. Only Crosby and malkin had a higher cap hit on a 5 year elf contract and Matthews isn’t near the players they were. Matthews should have been in the 12% range, which would still be higher than Kane/Toews/stamkos

Matthews has scored goals at the highest rate 5v5 since entering the league. He probably got a bit more than he should of, but hes an elite goalscoring center - the highest premium of paid players.

 

[Legion34]

Who is Matthews contract comparable. Only Crosby and malkin had a higher cap hit on a 5 year elf contract and Matthews isn’t near the players they were. Matthews should have been in the 12% range, which would still be higher than Kane/Toews/stamkos

Crosby got 17.5 percent. Malkin got 15.5

Matthews got 13.5-14 depending on the final cap.

Matthews has scored at a much higher rate than Kane and toews did b

He has similar numbers to stamkos. Who took like 11.5-12 with tax benefits.

The number 11634 is obviously for a reason.
No one agrees to that specific of a number.

Number 1 draft pick in 16 number 34? Either way don’t piss off your franchise for a few hundred k

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

1st in ev goals
1st in ev and all situation goals/60
5th in ev points/60
2nd in ev primary points/60.

And plays C.

Those are why Matthews should make more. Goal scoring is the most expensive attribute, playing C is the most expensive position, and scoring goals at even strength is the hardest thing to do in the game. And he doesn't play with an elite playdriving C on his line in John Tavares. (Spent most of his time this season 5v5 with Marleau and Kapanen)

Marner is a fantastic player - but he isn't Matthews.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

The leafs overpaid on Nylander. They paid him on what he might become. He had two 60 point seasons and they paid him 6.9 million cap hit with half paid in bonuses in the first year. He wasn’t worth that. Dubas screwed up by giving in. Nylander has lots of skill and may become a 70-80 point player but he isn’t there yet. Again leafs paid him on what he may become.

Now with Marner posters only want to pay him 9-9.5 because that’s his comparables cap hit. He has already proven in the last half year plus this year that he IS a ppg player. But now these same posters are saying he can’t get better. They point to Kucherov but it took Kucherov till 26 years of age to break out. Marner is 21. If Dubas paid Nylander what he might become then does everyone think Mitch has reached his prime. Lol

If they have to sign Marner for 10.5 or 11 they will.

They will look to move the lesser players and if they hav3 to move a big salary out of the top four

I’ll let you figure that out

Matthews 11.6
Tavares 11
Marner 10.5
Nylander 6.9

I can guarantee you if one of the big four is traded it will be Nylander

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

The leafs overpaid on Nylander. They paid him on what he might become. He had two 60 point seasons and they paid him 6.9 million cap hit with half paid in bonuses in the first year. He wasn’t worth that. Dubas screwed up by giving in. Nylander has lots of skill and may become a 70-80 point player but he isn’t there yet. Again leafs paid him on what he may become.

Now with Marner posters only want to pay him 9-9.5 because that’s his comparables cap hit. He has already proven in the last half year plus this year that he IS a ppg player. But now these same posters are saying he can’t get better. They point to Kucherov but it took Kucherov till 26 years of age to break out. Marner is 21. If Dubas paid Nylander what he might become then does everyone think Mitch has reached his prime. Lol

If they have to sign Marner for 10.5 or 11 they will.

They will look to move the lesser players and if they hav3 to move a big salary out of the top four

I’ll let you figure that out

Matthews 11.6
Tavares 11
Marner 10.5
Nylander 6.9

I can guarantee you if one of the big four is traded it will be Nylander

You're spewing.

Kucherov signed his contract which is 8 UFA years, and produced more than Marner. He had the tax advantage which is not immaterial. Marner has the endorsements advantage in Toronto, which may or may not add up to close to the tax advantage, but its probably not immaterial either.

26 year olds make more than 21 year olds on their new deals because of the RFA vs UFA status. Thats why bridge deals are cheaper than longterm deals on young players. The more UFA years you buy, the more expensive the contract becomes.

 

[I am Canadian]

9m x 5
9.5m x 6
10m x 7

 

[Legion34]

I think he signs for similar money for longer term to save face maybe?

I don’t see him taking 2.5 less than Matthews. Maybe he takes a little less over longer? We will see soon enough

 

[Bigmarycombo]

You're spewing.

Kucherov signed his contract which is 8 UFA years, and produced more than Marner. He had the tax advantage which is not immaterial. Marner has the endorsements advantage in Toronto, which may or may not add up to close to the tax advantage, but its probably not immaterial either.

26 year olds make more than 21 year olds on their new deals because of the RFA vs UFA status. Thats why bridge deals are cheaper than longterm deals on young players. The more UFA years you buy, the more expensive the contract becomes.

That’s gone now

Going forward the second deals after Elc Will be higher than ever before and with a smaller term. You better get used to it.
Watch the laine point Aho rattanen contracts this year. They will all mirror Matthews contract. Term will be no more than 5 years and big money. Players will want to get to free agency sooner.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

That’s gone now

Going forward the second deals after Elc Will be higher than ever before and with a smaller term. You better get used to it.
Watch the laine point Aho rattanen contracts this year. They will all mirror Matthews contract. Term will be no more than 5 years and big money. Players will want to get to free agency sooner.

Ok, as long as it happens to every big named RFA this year its fine to think thats the way things are going to go.

I don't think they're all going to get that type of money. Now, thats based on the idea that by big money you mean 10M+. If its 8-9 mil, then Marner isn't in the 10M+ range. Those guys are all close to eachother (though I expect Laine to sign something pretty short term so his will likely be different)

 

[Snowpants]

The majority of leafs fans arent saying under 9. Some might be, but be real, most are saying under 10.5.

Can't fathom Marner signing for more then Kucherov.

There is no friggin way the contract landscape has changed that much in 12 months. No way.

Better be lower than Kucherov, who is clearly the far superior winger.

HEs not gonna out earn kucherov there bud marner is a phenomenal hockey player but I stand by 9-9.5x 6-8

Looking at it, there isn't a single comparable that warrants Marner making over 9.5M.

Sure but Marner might feel that he deserves more for an 8 year term which is outrageous. On a second contract his only comparable would be Ovechkin if he got that kind of dough. He's just not that good enough to warrant being paid more than Kucherov and Stone while buying mainly RFA years.

Kucherov scored 41 goals 128 points and signed $9.5M x 8. Kuchi played with Stamkos.

I know taxes are a standard argument here but, the cap doesnt take into account taxes. So taxes shouldnt count. Taxes are the cost players have to pay for playing in Toronto.

Marner scored 26 goals and 94 points playing with Tavares.

if we use point production as a measure then Marner produced 73% of Kuchi. 73% of $9.5M is $6.97M (whoa! Willy money!?)

Heck, never mind my tax talk from before. lets cover the 13% Ontario income tax. That's $7.88M.

Now lets give him another $1 million because we wuuuuuuv him more than Tampa loves Kuchi.

Finally Dubas caves on term. so I say he'll get $9M x 4.

You read it here first.

Yeah so that is a whole hell of a lot closer to 9 than 10. How will you move the goal posts now???

Its not shuffling goal posts. I legitimately said the majority of people don't believe theyre going to be 10M dollar players, you gave a couple of quotes of people saying they might be to dismiss the idea that the majority don't believe they are. Do you struggle with comprehension?

I provided evidence of reasonable people saying otherwise. You now have to prove your stance. Go head I will wait lol.

I gave reasons why Matthews deal is less comparable to Marner than others (such as the Kane one). Surely Marner's agent will use Matthews deal, but Dubas will have MORE to use on their end of the negotiation, and explain why those ones are more relevant.

Dubas has MORE than "They are teammates, Marner has out scored Matthews the last two years"? Is your "more" perhaps all this EV scoring BS that keeps going around lol?

All the contracts are comparables, Matthews and Point. The context within is that Centres make more. So if a centre in Point makes 8.5 for example, it makes it difficult for a winger who put up similar production (and less goals) to ask for substantially more money than that. The idea is the same when Marner says he wants Matthews deal, and the leafs explain how Matthews gets more because of the position and goal scoring. Its the same concept. You're just incapable of applying the logic here.

Dubas can do all the Powerpoint presentations he wants about Point and centers and goals... once again Marner's agent just has to point at Matthews contract. You are unable to apply THAT logic and it is truly painful to read.

Also I have to laugh here and point your hypocrisy. You went on about how no Leaf fans thinks Marner should get under 9... then use Point and 8.5 as an example and claim Marner should not ask for more than that. A true fail right there.

Yes Leon scored less points, look where he was in league scoring that year vs Marner this year. And I'm not saying he should get less than Leon, i'm saying theyre closer than you would think given he plays C (allbeit split), signed 8 years (more UFA years bought than the presumable Marner contract), and had an insane playoffs.

Oh my goodness the C thing again. Okay I will wait for Dubas to base his argument all around that. I wish him well.

Of course Marner's agent isn't going to ageee with all of the points. Dubas isn't going to agree with all the agent's Points. From an outside point of view, should scoring increasing this year not factor into a player's value? We're not discussing what Dubas and Marner's agent are gonna want - were discussing what the players value is.

LOL "We are not discussing what Dubas and Marner's agent are gonna want". YES WE ARE. That is literally the discussion. Get off your Xbox or whatever and pay attention to real negotations. No cares about these mental gymnatics you and Leafs are trying to do to convince yourselves he is worth 9 or less. Marner > Matthews in production and even ES scoring which is what Leaf fans care most about these days. That's it that's all you lose.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Marner isn’t a line driver now? Yikes lol. Matthews isn’t a line driver either. He’s an opportunistic goal scorer and he’s very good at it. He didn’t drive anything in the playoffs either. He was invisible for periods upon periods. He got 5 goals because he scored on his one or two chances he got.

 

[Cotton]

What is that noise I hear? Oh yes the goal posts shuffling



It's called his teammate. Sorry this fantasy where Marner's agent believes Kane's contract is the only one in the world and rolls over is not reality.



Wait why is Matthews not a comparable because he plays a different position but Point suddenly is? Again them goal posts they are dancing.



Leon did not score 90 to get that contract and it is now two cap increases ago. There is thing called inflation you all seem to pretend does not exist.



Oh yes, Marner's agent will say, scoring increased! Of course! My client will now take less.

LOL get real.



So what do you call that bias of Leafs fans repeating without proof he will certainly get UNDER 10 and even 9? Weird how you don't have a word for that.

What group of "Leafs fans" are saying he'll get under 10, or even 9?

Did you make that up or can you link to it?

 

[Snowpants]

What group of "Leafs fans" are saying he'll get under 10, or even 9?

Did you make that up or can you link to it?

Hint: if you read the posts in a thread you will often answer your own questions

 

[Legion34]

Marner isn’t a line driver now? Yikes lol. Matthews isn’t a line driver either. He’s an opportunistic goal scorer and he’s very good at it. He didn’t drive anything in the playoffs either. He was invisible for periods upon periods. He got 5 goals because he scored on his one or two chances he got.

Ummmmmmmm you want to try again?

 

[shortfuze]

The leafs overpaid on Nylander. They paid him on what he might become. He had two 60 point seasons and they paid him 6.9 million cap hit with half paid in bonuses in the first year. He wasn’t worth that. Dubas screwed up by giving in. Nylander has lots of skill and may become a 70-80 point player but he isn’t there yet. Again leafs paid him on what he may become.

Now with Marner posters only want to pay him 9-9.5 because that’s his comparables cap hit. He has already proven in the last half year plus this year that he IS a ppg player. But now these same posters are saying he can’t get better. They point to Kucherov but it took Kucherov till 26 years of age to break out. Marner is 21. If Dubas paid Nylander what he might become then does everyone think Mitch has reached his prime. Lol

If they have to sign Marner for 10.5 or 11 they will.

They will look to move the lesser players and if they hav3 to move a big salary out of the top four

I’ll let you figure that out

Matthews 11.6
Tavares 11
Marner 10.5
Nylander 6.9

I can guarantee you if one of the big four is traded it will be Nylander

Even at 60-70 points a year, nylander will be worth his contract. He had a down year, it happens.

 

[Cotton]

Hint: if you read the posts in a thread you will often answer your own questions

I tend to stop when I read something stupid, but I did after posting and you failed to provide what I asked. All you did was quote a handful of people expressing disbelief that Marner is worth more than Kucherov, and perhaps one believing he will receive the same contract or a little less.

Believing he isnt worth more than Kucherov isnt believing he will make less.

 

[Marcobruin]

Marner doesn't deserve to make more than Patrick Kane .. imo
Not even disputable. Marner has ways to go before he can be in Kane category.