Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[4thline]

Agreed. No matter what if the contract ends up being 10.5 or more regardless of term......Ill be pissed as a guy who follows the Leafs (I admit not as much as you) if the Leafs trade Marner and keep Nylander.......I would be livid. Hopefully they can keep both guys in the end. I'm a big fan of Marner, he's my favorite Leaf. I love his hockey smarts and hustle.

Yup. In the midst of all this William Nylander is by far Dubas' biggest decision to make this offseason. Barring ludicrous and unprecedented OS that prevents a ~11 x 6 contract Marner is automatic. But Willy....

On one hand his trade could solve the off-season in a stroke- free up cap space and either shore up the defense or boost an already underratedly strong prospect pool, maybe a bit of both.

On the other this is really the first season since he was 17 that would shake the belief that in his prime he can be a Spezza/Kessel level offensive catalyst (depending on whether at C or W) which at his cap hit would be absolutely huge moving forward.

I think that Dubas is going to roll the dice on the latter. In the short term it will result in the loss of some quality players and perhaps a bit of a barebones down year, but the Leaf development system has given enough reason to have faith that they can replace the F2,F3 types in the top 9. Hell, Moore's development almost exactly mirrors that of Johnsson, and we've got ~3-4 more on the Marlies right now well positioned to emerge as next year's Johnsson/Moore. That and even a bit gutted it's still likely a playoff team, just a lower seed. Anything can happen once you're in the dance, and the speed bump years that gave the Caps Vrana and Wilson certainly didn't hurt them in the long run

 

[Menzinger]

Boston.

You think their GM would be comfortable not picking on the first round for almost thr next half decade?

And how would they pay McAvoy?

 

[Dache]

"averaging and aggregating" =/= individual comparison

There's no agenda, just an argument that you have nothing to counter other than harping on decimal points.

A Crosby/McDavid level player is worth ~17% by 5 years. If McDavid demanded that he would have gotten it and no one would have blinked. Matthews knew that, and as such set his bar on McDavid's worth, not the discount he chose to accept.

Out of curiosity why did you blend the percentage but not the term?

 

[Snowpants]

Which is why it's ridiculous for Toronto management itself to open that door, which was the implication of what Friedman wrote. Hopefully that implication was incorrect or misinformed and Leafs management is smarter than that, because if they want to make that argument it would be very easy for Marner's camp to fire back with the math I used.

Nothing Toronto management has done since Dubas took over shows they are informed about the realities of todays game. I would never have guessed the youngest GM would have a worldview on cap and contracts that is ten years old but here we are.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

San Jose.

You should probably post a source for those rumors, though.

Not that a team couldn't make room, but do you honestly see TM signing for 5m per year?

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

Marner should not settle for less than his worth. He should get paid at least 11.6M.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Marner's best comparable contract is Kane's 2nd deal, not his third deal. 11% of the cap - 9.15 per year. Im comfortable going up to 9.5.


Matthews has scored goals at the highest rate 5v5 since entering the league. He plays C, and doesn't play with John Tavares. His contract is not really a comparable to Mitch's.

Mitch is fantastìc, and 9.5M is a lot of money. He doesn't deserve to he the highest paid winger in the league on a deal that will buy 4 RFA years.

If Marner is 10.5+, Rantanen should get that too (Rantanen has had a better last two years than Marner actually has). Tampa has the no state tax advantage, but Point scored 40 goals and plays the more prominent position - so his upcoming deal should he comparable too.

Aho is a C, less points, still PPG and didn't play with JT. His number should be very close to Marner's.


The reality is that if Mitch deserves 10.5+, all of those guys are right there too, and I don't think anyone reasonably expects them to get that much.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Marner should not settle for less than his worth. He should get paid at least 8.5 million.

Fixed your post.

 

[Liferleafer]

Regardless, Leafs overpaid Nylander ~300k, Matthews probably 600k, and Marner probably deserves 10 but may get 500k or so more...

The money adds up to a replacement level players salary, they'll be fine. They may have to trade away a Kapanen or Johnson to make it all fit, but you recoup assets from it and should get a player or prospect back that will be able to fill that spot in time.

So much doom and gloom surrounding the Leafs, i just don't see it. This is a young core that's made the playoffs three years in a row, probably the most successful young core in the league.

They'll be okay.

300+600+500...1.4 million in overpayment? Brown to Edmonton for a 3rd, call up Bracco. Problem solved...Marleau is off the books next season

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

Fixed your post.

Marner > Matthews.

 

[justafan22]

Marner > Matthews.

Marner was a ghost in games 4-7 of the series

 

[4thline]

Out of curiosity why did you blend the percentage but not the term?

The opinion that if McDavid had demanded that percentage by 5 years he would have gotten it.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Not that a team couldn't make room, but do you honestly see TM signing for 5m per year?

On a 2-year bridge? Yeah, I do. Probably even less. Long term? Not to throw this too far off topic term, but I think he would be closer to Nylander’s money, right? The 2-year bridge is also assumed on Labanc’s contract.

However, there is plenty of dead weight on that roster that I didn’t exclude for the sake of simplicity. For example, Aaron Dell can be traded and replaced with Antoine Bibeau, that saves over $1.1M. Melker Karlsson can be traded and replaced with Jonathan Dahlen, that saves over $1M.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Not that a team couldn't make room, but do you honestly see TM signing for 5m per year?

San Jose can only afford Marner if they let Karlsson walk.

Philadelphia will absolutely OS Marner if he's available July 1st. They have a history of signing players to maniacal deals that they have no intention of honouring. They're the only real threat, IMO.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Marner > Matthews.

Weird that you would say that, They've both played 11 games against your team so I would assume at the very least you actually watched those games, Matthews has 10 goals and 4 assists, Marner has 10 assists.

 

[Snowpants]

Matthews has scored goals at the highest rate 5v5 since entering the league. He plays C, and doesn't play with John Tavares. His contract is not really a comparable to Mitch's.

Yeah that's not how that works lol

The reality is that if Mitch deserves 10.5+, all of those guys are right there too, and I don't think anyone reasonably expects them to get that much.

I mean, at least 10 million of that is going to Rantanen. Zadorov, Compher, and Kerfoot, if he’s sadly re-signed, could take up 10-12 million collectively.

They’re not going to go cheap. He’s their best player and future captain. There’s no doubt they will take care of him.

Didn't take me that long to find one for Rantanen and Aho. Point is a different one because of the tax thing.

In fact looking back through Rantanen and Aho value threads it is LEAFS fans crying that about them not being worth 10. Hmm wonder why that is.

 

[FinlandPanther]

It's funny watching Leafs fans talk about Marner negatively when his contract is coming up Couldn't stop talking about him last year. Funny how things change. Watching the 9.5 million comments is laughable. If he settles for that you got a steal.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Fixed your post.

Why would he take this and not just wait to be an RFA and get a way better offer. It makes no sense. You can sign him for just over $10 M and only give up 2 1sts, 1 2nd and a 3rd. This is part I feel like is missing from discussion unless people feel offer sheets are a ll a conspiracy thing.

I mean that's not much to give up for a kid who is a top 20 player for sure and maybe a top 10 or even a top 5.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Yeah that's not how that works lol







Didn't take me that long to find one for Rantanen and Aho. Point is a different one because of the tax thing.

In fact looking back through Rantanen and Aho value threads it is LEAFS fans crying that about them not being worth 10. Hmm wonder why that is.

You found a couple examples yes, but the majority don't think theyre going to be 10M players.

The Matthews deal - it is how it works, but okay.

Marner's best comparables are deals like Kane's 2nd contract. 11 pct of the cap. 9.15, give him 9.5, its still true that hes not worth 10.5. There isn't a comparable player that puts him in that range.

Point has the tax situation but also plays C and scores goals (two things that historically cost more on deals). Those factors should make it close to a wash, so his deal should be very similar to that of Marners. Is he going to get 10M? He might take a discount, but that instantly does become one of the comparables for MM.

Leon signed 8.5 x 8 years (more UFA years bought). Split time as a C and a W, and was coming off a monster playoff. If Marner is signing for say, 6 years, is he going to get 2M AAV more on a shorter contract? He probably shouldn't.

Also consider that scoring this year increased. Look at where Marner was in league scoring this year versus LD in his year, etc. All of those things do matter. Marner had a tremendous year and is going to get paid. That doesn't mean 10.5+ isnt an overpayment.

The Marner contract debate is an example of how anchoring bias has impacted the narrative. If people keep saying hes worth 11 for no reason other than "hes worth it" with no obvious comparables - eventually a large subgroup of the population will believe it.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

Weird that you would say that, They've both played 11 games against your team so I would assume at the very least you actually watched those games, Matthews has 10 goals and 4 assists, Marner has 10 assists.

Matthews makes 11.6M but he’s never got 75 points LOL

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Why would he take this and not just wait to be an RFA and get a way better offer. It makes no sense. You can sign him for just over $10 M and only give up 2 1sts, 1 2nd and a 3rd. This is part I feel like is missing from discussion unless people feel offer sheets are a ll a conspiracy thing.

I mean that's not much to give up for a kid who is a top 20 player for sure and maybe a top 10 or even a top 5.

Leafs should match anything in the 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd range and walk from anything in the 4 firsts range. I love the kid but I don't think he is a top 10 player let alone a top 5. Use that extra space to get Kapanen and Johnsson signed for longer than just a couple years, and add to the back end. I'm on team "Offersheets should be used more often but I sure would prefer this sudden change didn't happen just intime to f*** my team over" but if Marner gets offer sheeted? I go to team Chaos, offer sheet Tkachuk or Trouba or somene else next year. Lets have the entire league go nuts with it just so we can sit back and watch Marner not be as good when he isn't on Tavares' wing, or someone's offer sheet pick ending up #1 overall. #TEAMCHAOS2019

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Matthews makes 11.6M but he’s never got 75 points LOL

Matthews is an elite goalscoring, line driving center. Marner is a really good play maker but he doesn't drive his line. I hope the Habs pony up 11.5.

 

[powerstuck]

Marner was a ghost in games 4-7 of the series

Wow so 4 games is now a good enough comparison tool.

Marner has 17 pts over a 20 career playoff games.

Matthews has only 13.

 

[Snowpants]

You found a couple examples yes, but the majority don't think theyre going to be 10M players.

What is that noise I hear? Oh yes the goal posts shuffling

The Matthews deal - it is how it works, but okay.

Marner's best comparables are deals like Kane's 2nd contract. 11 pct of the cap. 9.15, give him 9.5, its still true that hes not worth 10.5. There isn't a comparable player that puts him in that range.

It's called his teammate. Sorry this fantasy where Marner's agent believes Kane's contract is the only one in the world and rolls over is not reality.

Point has the tax situation but also plays C and scores goals (two things that historically cost more on deals). Those factors should make it close to a wash, so his deal should be very similar to that of Marners. Is he going to get 10M? He might take a discount, but that instantly does become one of the comparables for MM.

Wait why is Matthews not a comparable because he plays a different position but Point suddenly is? Again them goal posts they are dancing.

Leon signed 8.5 x 8 years (more UFA years bought). Split time as a C and a W, and was coming off a monster playoff. If Marner is signing for say, 6 years, is he going to get 2M AAV more on a shorter contract? He probably shouldn't.

Leon did not score 90 to get that contract and it is now two cap increases ago. There is thing called inflation you all seem to pretend does not exist.

Also consider that scoring this year increased. Look at where Marner was in league scoring this year versus LD in his year, etc. All of those things do matter. Marner had a tremendous year and is going to get paid. That doesn't mean 10.5+ isnt an overpayment.

Oh yes, Marner's agent will say, scoring increased! Of course! My client will now take less.

LOL get real.

The Marner contract debate is an example of how anchoring bias has impacted the narrative. If people keep saying hes worth 11 for no reason other than "hes worth it" with no obvious comparables - eventually a large subgroup of the population will believe it.

So what do you call that bias of Leafs fans repeating without proof he will certainly get UNDER 10 and even 9? Weird how you don't have a word for that.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Read Jeff Veillette's deep dive into the Marner contract debate. It looks at a number of comparables and even discusses the Mattews deal and his comparables.

Let's talk about Mitch Marner