Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[Notsince67]

Hyman isn’t the reason Marner didn’t produce lmao

With less around 30% offensive zone starts, it is telling that they were assigned to play defensively over offensively.
LMAO you don't even know what you are watching. You start in the dzone with a winger who blew an ACL and are expected to carry and score points. Give me a break.

 

[Hunter368]

IMO Marner will sign with the Leafs for 6 or 7 years with a cap hit of roughly 10.5-11.25 million. Leafs give up more cap hit then they want and Marner gives up 1-2 extra years then he wants. Give take, it's a negotiation.

 

[MikeyMike01]

Leafs are going to feel so lucky when Marner makes less money

He very well might make less than Matthews, but it'll be because he's a winger. Not because of some cherry-picked stats that try and downplay Marner's ability.

 

[hyduK]

Nobody is signing him for the above 2, 1sts, 2nd and 3rd dollar amount. And without Marner (who was their best player) they won't replicate this year.

Leafs would match anything in that range so it’s not even worth the conversation then.

 

[TorontoTrades]

7 years at 10.16

 

[TML1967]

Jeff Valiettes article on this has the best thought out contract scenario.
Looks at impact on other players, play driving ability, and 2nd contracts for comparable players based on the cap % when they signed it.

I dont love all his writing, but it's really well thought out and through.

9-10 for 6 or 7 years makes the most sense. Makes him the 2nd or 3rd highest paid winger in the league.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

Panarin & 4 first round picks > Marner

 

[CpatainCanuck]

Leafs are matching anything 10.6 or below, don’t get your hopes up.

Leafs would match anything in that range so it’s not even worth the conversation then.

Agreed. So really the crux of the negotiations are really about a small cap hit window between $10.569 million (an offersheet that has 4 first round picks going to Toronto) and $11.634 million (Austin Matthews' cap hit).

The wildcard would be if there is a team willing to lose 4 first round picks to acquire Marner for an even higher cap hit.

 

[DinosaurBones]

If this thread title is legit than the Leafs don't see Marner in a Leafs uni again. Simple, and embarrassing if true

 

[Brunomics]

He very well might make less than Matthews, but it'll be because he's a winger. Not because of some cherry-picked stats that try and downplay Marner's ability.

Marner is that weird type of winger that seems to be more of a playmaking center in the offensive zone. Everything from what I've seen this season Tavares played more of a Lee type role on the team. So while he may not be taking draws and playing down low in the D zone he's making his line mates so much better than what they really are.

 

[4thline]

IMO Marner will sign with the Leafs for 6 or 7 years with a cap hit of roughly 10.5-11.25 million. Leafs give up more cap hit then they want and Marner gives up 1-2 extra years then he wants. Give take, it's a negotiation.

Fair assessment.
While one side is too quick to dismiss the impact OS leverage may have I think the other is too quick to take for granted how much other teams would be willing to pay. Just because 10.56 is the most that they can pay in that 2nd tier doesn't that they're willing to offer that much.

 

[NewEraGM]

Leaf fans shouldn’t get their hopes up that MM will sign for anything under 10.5M. A 10.5M signed offer sheet would give 2 firsts, a second and a third. Everyone known Dubas will match that since it’s not worth letting marner walk for that. Just the threat of an offer sheet should set it as the floor. Dubas will say that they haven’t received an offer sheet to justify paying less but if I was marner’s agent I would say I’ll go public with a request that marner will sign a 10.5M offer sheet from someone and the offers will come in no doubt. Not sure Kyle would like cause I’m sure he knows to that he would get a 10.5M offer sheet. 10.5M is the floor on any term

 

[Kelly]

He very well might make less than Matthews, but it'll be because he's a winger. Not because of some cherry-picked stats that try and downplay Marner's ability.

It'll be because Matthews is a center and is a much, much better goal scorer.

I said this in another thread, but i believe Leafs should do everything in their power to get Marner signed even if it's in the 10.5-11m range. Having a core of Matthews, Marner, Rielly, and Tavares assuming the Leafs continue to draft & develop well is almost a sure thing to have your playoff tickets punched every year.

Overpay your star players, and underpay the depth. No Lucic, Marleau (thx Lou), Backes, Ladd etc and we'll be fine. Totally trust the management running this team not to do that over the past managements too.

 

[Hunter368]

Fair assessment.
While one side is too quick to dismiss the impact OS leverage may have I think the other is too quick to take for granted how much other teams would be willing to pay. Just because 10.56 is the most that they can pay in that 2nd tier doesn't that they're willing to offer that much.

Agreed. No matter what if the contract ends up being 10.5 or more regardless of term......Ill be pissed as a guy who follows the Leafs (I admit not as much as you) if the Leafs trade Marner and keep Nylander.......I would be livid. Hopefully they can keep both guys in the end. I'm a big fan of Marner, he's my favorite Leaf. I love his hockey smarts and hustle.

 

[Menzinger]

I think it has Lou written all over it. Jordan Eberle made 6m to put up 37 points this season, and he's a UFA. MM is a phenomenal replacement. They have a ton of space. Lou's gotta know Marner and his agent well. The revenge for poaching Tavares. They are an up and coming team that appears, at least, safe from those picks being lottery picks. It's a WWE level heel move straight out of Hollywood casting because its perfect. The only way it gets avoided is if Toronto does the right thing and gives him the Matthews contract. Then the case is closed. But his agent needs to go do something else with his life if he doesn't take advantage of this. That's what an agent is for. To be the cold hearted "business is never personal" bastard that goes there and leaves you saying "I can't believe he went there."

Has Lou ever offsheeted a player in his career as an NHL GM?

 

[Michoulicious]

IMO Marner will sign with the Leafs for 6 or 7 years with a cap hit of roughly 10.5-11.25 million. Leafs give up more cap hit then they want and Marner gives up 1-2 extra years then he wants. Give take, it's a negotiation.

If Friedman is right and Marner camp asks for 11,5 M per and Leafs want 9,5 M per, I get the feeling Marner will sign like Matthews for 5 years, but at 10.5 millions per.

 

[Legion34]

How about you show total points and use points in all situations rather than cherry picking for whatever Matthews is better at and leaving out the situations that dont help him.

Sure. Name some production stats
That Marner has led the entire league in? Be happy to see them to compare

 

[Kelly]

Regardless, Leafs overpaid Nylander ~300k, Matthews probably 600k, and Marner probably deserves 10 but may get 500k or so more...

The money adds up to a replacement level players salary, they'll be fine. They may have to trade away a Kapanen or Johnson to make it all fit, but you recoup assets from it and should get a player or prospect back that will be able to fill that spot in time.

So much doom and gloom surrounding the Leafs, i just don't see it. This is a young core that's made the playoffs three years in a row, probably the most successful young core in the league.

They'll be okay.

 

[Sun God Nika]

The cap's gone up what, $11.5m since Kane's contract kicked in?

($83m/$71.4m) * $10.5m = $12.2m

I bet Marner would settle for $12m.

Not saying marner doesn't deserve 12M but when Kane signed his contract he was scoring higher compared to his peers and had multiple championships.

 

[The don godfather]

Yep I smell lou godfather going after marner hard.

 

[Hunter368]

If Friedman is right and Marner camp asks for 11,5 M per and Leafs want 9,5 M per, I get the feeling Marner will sign like Matthews for 5 years, but at 10.5 millions per.

Personally I think the five year term is something the Leafs really don't want for Marner.....that would make Marner & AM contracts end in the same year again.....that's really bad.

 

[SML2]

Has Lou ever offsheeted a player in his career as an NHL GM?

Exactly. Bucket list.

 

[Bazeek]

Not saying marner doesn't deserve 12M but when Kane signed his contract he was scoring higher compared to his peers and had multiple championships.

Like I said earlier, I'm mostly being tongue in cheek. People have pointed out a half-dozen reasons for Kane's contract to not be used as a ceiling for Marner's, including:

- Different cap ceilings
- Different free-agent status
- Different production history
- Different level of accomplishment

Which is why it's ridiculous for Toronto management itself to open that door, which was the implication of what Friedman wrote. Hopefully that implication was incorrect or misinformed and Leafs management is smarter than that, because if they want to make that argument it would be very easy for Marner's camp to fire back with the math I used.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Marner @ 10.75 6 years.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Exactly. Bucket list.

He did have a major player offer sheeted in 91. If he does, f***ing bring it I would rather see Marner as an Islander than overpay him so massively. Plus if NYI lose some UFAs in the summer next years pick could go lottery real fast.

Like I said earlier, I'm mostly being tongue in cheek. People have pointed out a half-dozen reasons for Kane's contract to not be used as a ceiling for Marner's, including:

- Different cap ceilings
- Different free-agent status
- Different production history
- Different level of accomplishment

Which is why it's ridiculous for Toronto management itself to open that door, which was the implication of what Friedman wrote. Hopefully that implication was incorrect or misinformed and Leafs management is smarter than that, because if they want to make that argument it would be very easy for Marner's camp to fire back with the math I used.

Its hilarious that people are arguing whether Kane should be a comparable when he absolute should but not for his current contract. 72, 70, 88 point seasons on an ELC? not far off. No calder trophy for Marner but I don't believe that should really be a factor in arguments. Leafs need to ( And I have little doubt they will) keep hammering at the fact that Marner's numbers away from Tavares are not 10m dollar player numbers. It's not insulting to tell a player what he's worth if you are being fair.