Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[WingsMJN2965]

I figured your werent.

Matthews was a superstar his first two seasons? I was just told he was an overpaid 73 point player though lol.

Larkin had 51 ES points in 2017/18, Crosby also had 51 and Nylander had 48. Defitnely some great production from the youngsters.

Not sure how Crosby is relevant in this discussion especially when Nylander out produced Larkin significantly at ES the previous year.

I have no interest of making this into a Nylander vs Larkin thread so will try to not comment on that anymore.

Not sure who said it but I didn't. FWIW, I do think Matthews did get paid highly, but with that type of player, your hands are pretty much tied and you have to pay them what they're asking. Not everybody gets lucky and has superstars that take massive discounts. And I think Marner is very much in the same group of, "You have to pay him."

And it just doesn't seem like he's inclined to sign for peanuts.

Crosby was only brought in as a representation of Larkin's ridiculous ES numbers on a team that was absolute dog shit last year.

 

[Hunter368]

Marner spent zero time on the 3rd/4th line this year. He spent almsost every single shift with Hyman-Tavares. Matthews spent the entire year with a combination of Johnsson/Kapanen and a bit of Nylander.

Yes, me and other poster were talking career to date.....not specifically this year.

 

[BB88]

As a reminder, Nylander got paid $114,137.15 per point based off his 61 point season. Based on Marner's 94 points, that same $/pt is $10,728,892 for Marner.

That's is the absolute bare minimum I take if I am Marner.

Marner is also better without the puck and should get 8 years.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

AM is the better goal scorer.

Marner produced more points, before people say PPG or PP60......durability is an asset just as much or more then skill so we can count that against Marner.

As stated the whole centre vs winger debate is overblown in general and especially with Marner who brings the assets that a centre does.

Quality of line mates? Not sure about that, Marner played time on the 3rd and 4th lines with grinders......AM has played long stretches with Nylander & KK.......obviously Hyman is who you are referring to which is fair comment.

Both are the same age and started the same year in the NHL.

IIRC Marner produced more ES this year (might be wrong, on cell can’t confirm) and AM more the two previous years.

So i don’t see a ton difference between them TBH......biggest argument would be goal scoring.......but that is partly offset by Marner scoring more points. Not huge difference and I suspect that’s how Marner & his camp see it which is what matters. Like I said I could see Marner giving a little taking hair less cap hit and one more year of term. Either way it’s going to be a huge cap hit and a problem to deal with.

Bobby Mac did lent comment on term, just cap hit for Rant.

The center vs winger is not overblown though. Top 10 cap hits, 6 center and 3 wingers. Top 15 it was like 9 centers and 4 wingers or something.

Regarding linemates I was talking about this year and yup Marner produced more ES points this year.

However every other year Matthews has more PPG and higher ES points than Marner except for the year Marner played with a franchise level talent. This year Marner had way better linemates than Matthews who had a revolving door of wingers (Kap, AJ and Marleau being top 3 most common).

For me I think position matter a lot as it has historically and I do think Matthews was overpaid in part to ignoring durability issues.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

What matters more, what percentage of the cap Kane got after his ELC or what Matthews got in a contract a couple of months ago? If you're saying anything but the second one, I have some bad news for you. Marner's going to get the same contract as Matthews (or close to it), or he's not going to be playing for Toronto.

You brought up kane/toews contract though???

 

[Empoleon8771]

You brought up kane/toews contract though???

I brought up Kane and Toews to show that they took the same deal after their ELCs. I brought them up to say that Marner was going to get something very similar to Matthews, not that Marner was going to get something similar to Kane in 2011.

 

[4thline]

So if Marner signs for 11 million x7 years, is that not fair in your opinion, knowing that say McDavid and Matthews "could" be at 14 million on long term deals if they took what they were worth?

That is Marner taking 3 million less. Is that not more than fair considering he just had a better PPG than Matthews?

Honestly it's in the ballpark.

->His best historical comparable (Kane 2nd contract) puts him in the mid 9's by 5
->He could get as high as ~10.5 (depending on next years cap) on an OS that makes sense for almost every team to offer

Basically I think this offseason may see the realignment that Toews/Kane started when the refused to take the financial hit that keeping their cap hits in line with pre 2013 CBA backdiving deals would require.

 

[Hunter368]

The center vs winger is not overblown though. Top 10 cap hits, 6 center and 3 wingers. Top 15 it was like 9 centers and 4 wingers or something.

Regarding linemates I was talking about this year and yup Marner produced more ES points this year.

However every other year Matthews has more PPG and higher ES points than Marner except for the year Marner played with a franchise level talent. This year Marner had way better linemates than Matthews who had a revolving door of wingers (Kap, AJ and Marleau being top 3 most common).

For me I think position matter a lot as it has historically and I do think Matthews was overpaid in part to ignoring durability issues.

Like the stats you posted above, wingers are clearly represented in the top cap hits......yes there are more centres in general and I stated that before......generally they are compared to your average winger......Marner isn’t your average winger. He’s just as good defensively as a centre and pushes play like a centre.....the only thing he doesn’t do as much/well is face offs.

AM overpaid? That’s a totally different debate, I hate the contract Dubas gave AM.....mostly bc of the term.

 

[TeddyBare]

Dubas isnt very good with this negotiating thing.

 

[Notsince67]

Is this why Toronto gave $7M to Nylander after a lengthy holdout, paying him $1M more than Larkin, who actually plays center and is significantly better?

I'm a leaf fan but there is no getting away from this logic. I readily admit the leafs screwed up. All arguments of Matthews deserving his cash because he is an elite #1 center (playing on the second line) and Nylander being an affordable contract for whatever reason is just bad. If you put lipstick on a pig it is still a pig. I'm just hoping the leafs can pull it all off with as little damage as possible.

 

[Blueboy]

Marner spent zero time on the 3rd/4th line this year. He spent almsost every single shift with Hyman-Tavares. Matthews spent the entire year with a combination of Johnsson/Kapanen and a bit of Nylander.

Ignore the posters that are trolling without knowledge of the situation. They have fun making up narratives.

These are people just trying to get a rise of Leafs fans.

Johnsson and Kapanen are gone before Leafs have issues retaining Marner. Both were no shows in the back quarter of the season plus playoffs.

 

[780il]

Which will be fine as in five years some kid out west will say he will only be traded to the leafs

Ahh the dream that every Leafs fan has been having since the 2015 lottery. Get over it, we got him. He's not being traded to your team. End of story.

 

[Notsince67]

For whatever reason people arent using Toews/Kane's first deal after their ELC, they are using their third contract after multiple cup wins.

Kane got 11.09% on his first contract after ELC which with a 83 million dollar ceiling is 9.2 million for 5 years.

Malkin/Crosby are both centers and not comparables to Marner.

You keep citing centers vs wingers without detailing the differences in position. A center typically plays lower and has more defensive responsibilities. Marner is one of the best defensive forwards on the team. His back checking is elite, his PK usage indicates a high level of defensive acumen and his ability to intercept a puck in the defensive zone is unmatched. Centers are puck carriers and playmakers, often getting more assists than goals. Sounds familiar?...Stylewise and job wise, Marners characteristics match closer to a center with the exception of being higher in the dzone and not taking faceoffs. That is it. This whole mantra of centers vs forwards need a real qualification of the differences these positions demand. Marner checks most of the boxes. I would even say that he is more of a 200ft player than Matthews...who is often slow on the back check.

 

[Torontoborn]

So one can assume Laine will get more than Marner, then?

Because I'm pretty sure there's 0 chance that happens.

Laine is a winger just like Marner. If you are a goal scoring top line center you are held to a much higher standard than play making winger like Marner. If you have more ES goals you are held to a higher standard. Matthews has 1 more ES point then Marner does in less games.

 

[Torontoborn]

No, I'm asking you how you're justifying the winger/center argument when Toronto's own GM has debunked it with the Nylander contract...

By the way, the consensus on Larkin vs. Nylander before the start of this year was pretty even, especially when anybody with half a brain considered Nylander was playing alongside Matthews, while Larkin was playing with Tatar. Now it's just not close.

And Larkin's not the only example of this either. MacKinnon and Barkov are on a completely different planet from Nylander and their contracts still don't inflate to the cap hit Nylander got.

So we can keep throwing around the, "Wingers aren't as valuable" crap, but Dubas ****ed that narrative up when he signed on the dotted line.

You do realize that Nylanders cap hit for the next 5 years in 6.9m per. His total salary next year is 9 and then falls to 6 the last 4 years. Nylander only made 10m because he missed 3 months of the season so it was to recoup what he lost.

 

[topshelf15]

Think he get the same or close to Matthews,chances are the leafs will move one of Johnsson ,or Kappanen to make it all fit...But they have some kids like Bracco who look like they are ready,so dont really see this as much an issue

 

[The Kingslayer]

Good luck with that Leafs. You paid Matthews like a top player already... You will be paying the better player Marner a crap load

11.5 per atleast.. Its pretty obvios

Hopefully not 11.5 for my teams sake lol. Take 10 Mitch and call it a day.

 

[EP40 AKA Lil Wayne]

Johnsson and Kapanen are gone before Leafs have issues retaining Marner. Both were no shows in the back quarter of the season plus playoffs.

Leafs got out more than expected from Johnsson, you are talking like he is some top prospect who failed to live up to the hype.


OnT: Marner is worth Matthews money and I second the opinion that durability matters.

 

[Blueboy]

Leafs got out more than expected from Johnsson, you are talking like he is some top prospect who failed to live up to the hype.


OnT: Marner is worth Matthews money and I second the opinion that durability matters.

Not at all. Word is he’s playing hardball during contract talks. Reality is, he’s a 24yo 40 point rookie who’s arb eligible.

I like him no doubt, but we’re not playing hardball for 40 point wingers, they can go if they don’t want to be here.

 

[Legion34]

Yes, me and other poster were talking career to date.....not specifically this year.

Marner has always been put in a better position to succeed.

Since day 1 he has been on the first pp. he started his career with Bozak and JVR. Then kadri and marleau (before the wheels came off)

Marner played a few games on the 4th. When he scored 2 goals in 36 games last year.

Matthews has spent his first and 3rd year with rookies. He got nylander as a sophomore last year and they were like the best line 5 on 5

Marner is great. But he flops around so much that he makes things look fancier.

Matthews has been better in every category over 3 years except ppg this year. And that’s because Marner had like 8 points on empty net assist

 

[48g90a138pts]

Kane signed his contract almost 5 years ago. It's not even a reasonable argument that Marner doesn't deserve more.

Question is what would Kane be asking for today. 12-13mil per season? Then yes that argument can be justified.

This kind of bickering really needs to stop from the Leafs organization side. They want Marner to stay in TO.

With a new TV deal on the horizon, star players are better off signing a shorter deal anyways. A 3 or 4 year deal would be ideal. That way both sides win. Team gets a cheaper deal and the player can resign under a salary structure that will be set to explode.

 

[Legion34]

I brought up Kane and Toews to show that they took the same deal after their ELCs. I brought them up to say that Marner was going to get something very similar to Matthews, not that Marner was going to get something similar to Kane in 2011.

Except Kane is like a hundred times better than toews.

And Matthews has like 50 more goals in 30 less games

 

[Nizdizzle]

Stannis would be rolling in his grave if he could read this thread.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Except Kane is like a hundred times better than toews.

Literally 0 relevance and it's not even true if we're talking about young Toews and young Kane.

And Matthews has like 50 more goals in 30 less games

And Marner can actually stay healthy for a full season.

 

[Gurilla]

The moment Marner blocked that shot in game 5 (?) he secured his bag.