Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[WingsMJN2965]

That is reflected in the contract. 14.6% x 5 is significantly less than 17% x 5.

5 years is also significantly less than 8.

Also, don't round up McDavid's percentage to look better when it's the same decimal as Matthews'...

 

[Tripod]

Matthews is a much better ES producer than Marner, he is one of the best in the league. He also played with far worse linemates this year and put up a similar amount of ppg. He also joined the league a year younger.

There are some pretty big differences between the players. Especially position and goal scoring prowess.

Marner was the better ES producer this year in real points and in ES PPG. Now that Babcock is not playing Marner on the 3rd and 4th line, he is producing.

Positions are different, but Marner is viewed as good defensively so the position thing doesn't matter as much.

 

[Hunter368]

Matthews is a much better ES producer than Marner, he is one of the best in the league. He also played with far worse linemates this year and put up a similar amount of ppg. He also joined the league a year younger.

There are some pretty big differences between the players. Especially position and goal scoring prowess.

I couldn’t careless about ES points vs total points......points are points......they are very very close points per game and Marner is much less injury prone to date. We don’t control contracts but I suspect his contract cap hit is going to be very similar to AM......I did say his term might be hair longer to achieve that though. You might disagree and that’s fine....not trying to convince you of anything just stating my opinion based of Marner performance, events to date regarding his contract talks and hockey insiders comments including most importantly Bobby Mac who is the most credible hockey guy out there.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

-From Toronto area +500k

-Carries his own line and plays more on the pk than Kadri who's supposed to be a 2 way forward. Good defensively +500k.

-Doesnt get injured like Matthews +634k (Matthews is actually paid 11.634 to play 60 games)

11.634 for Marner.

Damn, I forgot he was getting $11.6M and thought $10.6M.

So people actually think a .04PPG difference is justification to pay Marner $2.5M less per year?

 

[4thline]

5 years is also significantly less than 8.

Also, don't round up McDavid's percentage to look better when it's the same decimal as Matthews'...

Keep up, 17% x 5 is a blend of Crosby/McDavid, this whole tangent is based on the premise that McDavid signed for way less than his worth (which can be backed up by the Crosby deal and the public knowledge that McDavid deliberately took less

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Keep up, 17% x 5 is a blend of Crosby/McDavid, this whole tangent is based on the premise that McDavid signed for way less than his worth (which can be backed up by the Crosby deal and the public knowledge that McDavid deliberately took less

Oh, we're blending players now! That makes a ton of sense...

 

[The Winter Soldier]

****, I didn't catch that part of the discussion.

My bad, good call!

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound testy. But I had been through this already yesterday. My apologies.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound testy. But I had been through this already yesterday. My apologies.

All good man. I called you out as wrong and didn't catch the second half of the point.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

This has been addressed...it's a myth.

1 year ago, 3 of the top 6 highest paid players were wingers. Of the top 16 paid, 6 were wingers, 6 centers, 1 D, 1G.

What has changed is:

generational talent McDavid signed
Toronto gave out the largest UFA contract ever
Toronto gave out the 2nd largest RFA contract ever to a 73 point career guy

First off, 6+6+1+1 != 16 so I'm concerned about your research lol.

The 10 cap hits this year:
McDavid (C)
Tavares (C)
Price (G)
Kane (W)
Toews (C)
Eichel (C)
Kopitar (C)
Ovie (W)
Malkin (C)
Benn (W)

6 centers, 3 wingers and 1 goalie.


Let's also look at the top 16 this year (not sure why you used such an odd choice, cherry pick I imagine):
McDavid (C)
Tavares (C)
Price (G)
Kane (W)
Toews (C)
Eichel (C)
Kopitar (C)
Ovie (W)
Malkin (C)
Benn (W)
Subban (D)
Crosby (C)
Corey (W)
Lundquist (G)
Draisaitl (C)
Stamkos (C)

9 centers, 4 wingers, 2 goalie and 1 D. Again considerably more centers.

I know the leafs potential getting screwed by having so many good players and thus having to pay them is the only thing keeping some of the usual suspect sane.

 

[Hunter368]

Marner was the better ES producer this year in real points and in ES PPG. Now that Babcock is not playing Marner on the 3rd and 4th line, he is producing.

Positions are different, but Marner is viewed as good defensively so the position thing doesn't matter as much.

Agreed

I’ll add I never understood the whole debate ES vs real points.......points are points. Typically the only time I see ES production brought up is when x players produces less then y player so it becomes some kind of defendable point or ground to stand on. How often does the Art Ross winner gets discussed regarding his ES production......not very often bc no one cares.......only thing that matters is his total points. Just my opinion

 

[96]

This offseason is gonna be so fun to watch. Dubas will cave once again

This offseason is gonna be so fun to watch. Dubas will cave once again

People get mad about Leaf threads and all that, yet the same Oilers fans parade around in the threads. I cringed so hard at these posts and it is t the first time.

 

[4thline]

Oh, we're blending players now! That makes a ton of sense...

Umm yeah? Market rates for pretty much anything are determined by averaging and aggregating similar assets rather than just picking one.

Just move on, pretty clear that all you've got on this is obfuscation.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Umm yeah? Market rates for pretty much anything are determined by averaging and aggregating similar assets rather than just picking one.

Just move on, pretty clear that all you've got on this is obfuscation.

Yeah, by individual comparison. Not by merging their numbers to suit your agenda.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Marner was the better ES producer this year in real points and in ES PPG. Now that Babcock is not playing Marner on the 3rd and 4th line, he is producing.

Positions are different, but Marner is viewed as good defensively so the position thing doesn't matter as much.

Yup this year when he was put with another franchise level player he had better ES production. Every other year he has been way more.

Last year Matthews had 8 more ES points in 20 less games. The year before that Matthews had 9 more ES points in 5 more games.

Matthews has been a better ES player for sure.

 

[4thline]

Yeah, by individual comparison. Not by merging their numbers to suit your agenda.

"averaging and aggregating" =/= individual comparison

There's no agenda, just an argument that you have nothing to counter other than harping on decimal points.

A Crosby/McDavid level player is worth ~17% by 5 years. If McDavid demanded that he would have gotten it and no one would have blinked. Matthews knew that, and as such set his bar on McDavid's worth, not the discount he chose to accept.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I couldn’t careless about ES points vs total points......points are points......they are very very close points per game and Marner is much less injury prone to date. We don’t control contracts but I suspect his contract cap hit is going to be very similar to AM......I did say his term might be hair longer to achieve that though. You might disagree and that’s fine....not trying to convince you of anything just stating my opinion based of Marner performance, events to date regarding his contract talks and hockey insiders comments including most importantly Bobby Mac who is the most credible hockey guy out there.

Okay, GMs care a lot about ES production but your welcome to ignore it.

I think your right, Marner will end up getting a double digit AAV, hopefully closer to max term. It will be a severe overpayment though when you consider actual comparables (I.e. wingers). I guess we will see what guys like Rantenen make before I call it a severe overpayment but ya paying Marner more than Kutch will be criminal.

Crazy how I'm seeing almost exclusively centers as Marner's comprables yet for other wingers you can only use exclusively wingers as comprables. Seems odd to me.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

First off, 6+6+1+1 != 16 so I'm concerned about your research lol.

The 10 cap hits this year:
McDavid (C)
Tavares (C)
Price (G)
Kane (W)
Toews (C)
Eichel (C)
Kopitar (C)
Ovie (W)
Malkin (C)
Benn (W)

6 centers, 3 wingers and 1 goalie.


Let's also look at the top 16 this year (not sure why you used such an odd choice, cherry pick I imagine):
McDavid (C)
Tavares (C)
Price (G)
Kane (W)
Toews (C)
Eichel (C)
Kopitar (C)
Ovie (W)
Malkin (C)
Benn (W)
Subban (D)
Crosby (C)
Corey (W)
Lundquist (G)
Draisaitl (C)
Stamkos (C)

9 centers, 4 wingers, 2 goalie and 1 D. Again considerably more centers.

I know the leafs potential getting screwed by having so many good players and thus having to pay them is the only thing keeping some of the usual suspect sane.

Still confused as to how this logic supports Dubas holding out with a winger for two months, only to pay him more money than a center signed in the same year who is significantly better.

 

[SML2]

I don't know why everyone thinks MM signs for anything less than 10M. The compensation for an offer sheet of 10,148,302 and under is 2 firsts, a second and a third. I dont think theres a GM with cap space who wouldn't give that up and run as fast as he could away with MMs name on a contract.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

"averaging and aggregating" =/= individual comparison

There's no agenda, just an argument that you have nothing to counter other than harping on decimal points.

A Crosby/McDavid level player is worth ~17% by 5 years. If McDavid demanded that he would have gotten it and no one would have blinked. Matthews knew that, and as such set his bar on McDavid's worth, not the discount he chose to accept.

Actually I haven't harped on the decimal point since the first post, when you cleared up that your post holds no logic.

You do realize that UFA years have higher value than RFA years, and thus longer 2nd contracts require significantly more cap hit... Right?

Because a $900K difference to buy three UFA years is insane, LOL.

 

[Torontoborn]

Damn, I forgot he was getting $11.6M and thought $10.6M.

So people actually think a .04PPG difference is justification to pay Marner $2.5M less per year?

No only that but goals are held to a higher standard. For every goal there are up to 2 assists much easier to get. Plus one is a center and one is a rw.

 

[96]

Okay, GMs care a lot about ES production but your welcome to ignore it.

I think your right, Marner will end up getting a double digit AAV, hopefully closer to max term. It will be a severe overpayment though when you consider actual comparables (I.e. wingers). I guess we will see what guys like Rantenen make before I call it a severe overpayment but ya paying Marner more than Kutch will be criminal.

Crazy how I'm seeing almost exclusively centers as Marner's comprables yet for other wingers you can only use exclusively wingers as comprables. Seems odd to me.

It’s very odd. But so is the fact that 90% of posts in this thread (and most Leaf threads) are from the other 30 teams’ fans.

 

[Tripod]

First off, 6+6+1+1 != 16 so I'm concerned about your research lol.

The 10 cap hits this year:
McDavid (C)
Tavares (C)
Price (G)
Kane (W)
Toews (C)
Eichel (C)
Kopitar (C)
Ovie (W)
Malkin (C)
Benn (W)

6 centers, 3 wingers and 1 goalie.


Let's also look at the top 16 this year (not sure why you used such an odd choice, cherry pick I imagine):
McDavid (C)
Tavares (C)
Price (G)
Kane (W)
Toews (C)
Eichel (C)
Kopitar (C)
Ovie (W)
Malkin (C)
Benn (W)
Subban (D)
Crosby (C)
Corey (W)
Lundquist (G)
Draisaitl (C)
Stamkos (C)

9 centers, 4 wingers, 2 goalie and 1 D. Again considerably more centers.

I know the leafs potential getting screwed by having so many good players and thus having to pay them is the only thing keeping some of the usual suspect sane.

yeah...it was supposed to be 7 C, 7 W.

But what you are ignoring, is that often, centers are just flat out better. I have no issue saying that. Also the "top list" changes because of when players sign their contract. Draisaitl was seen as overpaid teh day he signed it, now, it's a steal...15th highest cap hit and dropping, 4th in points this year.

But Marner was just 6th in the league in ES points. That's elite. He was also 11th in scoring. Matthews was 42nd. Oh right, we need to only use PPG because Matthews misses games...so shoulda, coulda, woulda needs to be applied. Marner was 15th in PPG...Matthews 20th.

Dubas overpaying Matthews is going to lead to Marner getting paid. There is just no way around it now.

Matthews has never been in the top 20 in PPG in his 3 years and is not top 20 in combined PPG the last 3 years. And was given the 2nd highest contract ever. THAT was the mistake that he can't run from. And Marners camp is not going to make this easy.

But as I have said before, I think Marner DOES sign for less money AND more term...11 x7. That's my guess.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Still confused as to how this logic supports Dubas holding out with a winger for two months, only to pay him more money than a center signed in the same year who is significantly better.

Ah okay so you bring it back to attacking Dubas because you cant think of a real way to reply.

At the time larkin signed that contract he had 3 full seasons. First season he put up 45 points then 32 then 63. Nylander put up two 61 point seasons. At the time Larkin signed his contract he was not considered significant better than Nylander. His track record certaintly wasnt.

In the end Nylander signed for an extra year and was overpaid by like half a million.

All this doesnt change the fact that centers get paid more than wingers generally as I showed.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

No only that but goals are held to a higher standard. For every goal there are up to 2 assists much easier to get. Plus one is a center and one is a rw.

So one can assume Laine will get more than Marner, then?

Because I'm pretty sure there's 0 chance that happens.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Ah okay so you bring it back to attacking Dubas because you cant think of a real way to reply.

At the time larkin signed that contract he had 3 full seasons. First season he put up 45 points then 32 then 63. Nylander put up two 61 point seasons. At the time Larkin signed his contract he was not considered significant better than Nylander. His track record certaintly wasnt.

In the end Nylander signed for an extra year and was overpaid by like half a million.

All this doesnt change the fact that centers get paid more than wingers generally as I showed.

No, I'm asking you how you're justifying the winger/center argument when Toronto's own GM has debunked it with the Nylander contract...

By the way, the consensus on Larkin vs. Nylander before the start of this year was pretty even, especially when anybody with half a brain considered Nylander was playing alongside Matthews, while Larkin was playing with Tatar. Now it's just not close.

And Larkin's not the only example of this either. MacKinnon and Barkov are on a completely different planet from Nylander and their contracts still don't inflate to the cap hit Nylander got.

So we can keep throwing around the, "Wingers aren't as valuable" crap, but Dubas f***ed that narrative up when he signed on the dotted line.