Friedman: Leafs do not see Marner making more than Kane

[Ziggdiezan]

yeah...it was supposed to be 7 C, 7 W.

But what you are ignoring, is that often, centers are just flat out better. I have no issue saying that. Also the "top list" changes because of when players sign their contract. Draisaitl was seen as overpaid teh day he signed it, now, it's a steal...15th highest cap hit and dropping, 4th in points this year.

But Marner was just 6th in the league in ES points. That's elite. He was also 11th in scoring. Matthews was 42nd. Oh right, we need to only use PPG because Matthews misses games...so shoulda, coulda, woulda needs to be applied. Marner was 15th in PPG...Matthews 20th.

Dubas overpaying Matthews is going to lead to Marner getting paid. There is just no way around it now.

Matthews has never been in the top 20 in PPG in his 3 years and is not top 20 in combined PPG the last 3 years. And was given the 2nd highest contract ever. THAT was the mistake that he can't run from. And Marners camp is not going to make this easy.

But as I have said before, I think Marner DOES sign for less money AND more term...11 x7. That's my guess.

Yup Drai contract looks great as is the hope for all RFAs who are paid for future production.

Yes centers are often the best players (most demanding position) and thus often the highest paid players. It is not a myth as you stated.

Of course the list changes year to year but generally the top paid players are often centers. Just how it is.

I never argued that Marner wont get paid a ton or that Matthews wasn't overpaid. He will and Matthews was.

I'm saying there will be no justification for Marner to get paid his current contract when you look at comparables (wingers) as centers have always been paid more

 

[4thline]

You do realize that UFA years have higher value than RFA years, and thus longer 2nd contracts require significantly more cap hit... Right?

Because a $900K difference to buy three UFA years is insane, LOL.

You've missed the entire premise of the discussion.

Let me spell out simple.

McDavid gave discount. Matthews know McDavid gave discount. Matthews choose not to give discount, sets demand based on McDavid worth, not McDavid discounted contract.

"“This may be one of the largest contracts ever given in the NHL, but I can assure you it easily could have been a lot higher in value and shorter in term,” Chiarelli said."
Connor McDavid signs major hometown discount deal with Edmonton Oilers

Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid's only legitimate comparable, signed for 17.3% x 5 years. McDavid chose to sign for 16.7 x8.

 

[Gatorbait19]

It’s very odd. But so is the fact that 90% of posts in this thread (and most Leaf threads) are from the other 30 teams’ fans.

That’s b/c 30 other teams are recognizing how bad of a bind the leafs are in here salary cap wise. Marner holds all the leverage here. In addition to terms/money he can essentially dictate where he wants to be traded to if it comes to that.

Ultimately I think he probably re-signs in Toronto, getting a similar deal to Matthews - probably a little less money, but maybe even 1 year less of the deal. The leafs are going to have to trade at least Nylander though if not more just to fit Marner in the cap. Leafs may not even get fair value for Nylander b/c the leafs won’t be able to take much salary back on top of that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't get why people think Marner will get any less than Matthews gets. Marner getting the same exact deal as Matthews fits with what Crosby/Malkin and Toews/Kane did after their ELCs finished. Crosby and Malkin both got $8.7 million a year deals on 5 year deals and both Toews and Kane got $6.3 million a year deals on 5 year deals. Matthews getting $11.5ish million a 5 year deal would logically lock Marner in at the same deal based on those other deals.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

You've missed the entire premise of the discussion.

Let me spell out simple.

McDavid gave discount. Matthews know McDavid gave discount. Matthews choose not to give discount, sets demand based on McDavid worth, not McDavid discounted contract.

"“This may be one of the largest contracts ever given in the NHL, but I can assure you it easily could have been a lot higher in value and shorter in term,” Chiarelli said."
Connor McDavid signs major hometown discount deal with Edmonton Oilers

Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid's only legitimate comparable, signed for 17.3% x 5 years. McDavid chose to sign for 16.7 x8.

You missing my point, which is that you compare individually, not by merging numbers.

Speaking of which, the only number Sidney Crosby gives a shit about is 8.7, so using him for contract comparison can't necessarily be relied upon.

 

[Tripod]

Agreed

I’ll add I never understood the whole debate ES vs real points.......points are points. Typically the only time I see ES production brought up is when x players produces less then y player so it becomes some kind of defendable point or ground to stand on. How often does the Art Ross winner gets discussed regarding his ES production......not very often bc no one cares.......only thing that matters is his total points. Just my opinion

I don't 100% on this, but here is why.

Sometimes PP points are about opportunity. To use the Flyers as an example, they stack the 1st unit. Giroux, Voracek, Ghost, Was Simmonds, was Schenn. Someone like Couturier never got the chance to get lots of PP points just due to opportunity. Yes he played on the 2nd unit, but the unit was awful. He had PP points of 1, 4, 3, 6, 7, and 2. So certainly nothing special. But then Schenn got traded, and after Hakstol tried Filppula AND FAILED as Schenn's replacement, Couts was given the chance in November(2 years ago). Couturier has now produced 14 and 17 PP points the last 2 years since Schenn was traded.

Or if teh Flyers were to look to trade for someone, I WOULD want to look at their ES points because they might not get that PP opportunity on the Flyers which could drop their overall points downward.

So sometimes, you do need to look at things like that.

But I do agree that people try and discount PP points as if just anyone can get them. That's not true at all. Anyone with a struggling PP despite great players on it proves it. Hell, the Leafs are good example. At one point, people were asking if they would have the best PP% ever. PP points are not a given.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

No, I'm asking you how you're justifying the winger/center argument when Toronto's own GM has debunked it with the Nylander contract...

By the way, the consensus on Larkin vs. Nylander before the start of this year was pretty even, especially when anybody with half a brain considered Nylander was playing alongside Matthews, while Larkin was playing with Tatar. Now it's just not close.

And Larkin's not the only example of this either. MacKinnon and Barkov are on a completely different planet from Nylander and their contracts still don't inflate to the cap hit Nylander got.

So we can keep throwing around the, "Wingers aren't as valuable" crap, but Dubas ****ed that narrative up when he signed on the dotted line.

How does how Larkin is playing now have any bearing on when he signed his contract last summer?

As you said Larkin and Nylander were similar level talents with Nylander having a better track record and Larkin playing a more important position. Nylander ended up getting paid a little more but got the extra year of control.

This doesnt debunk anything, Nylander was overpaid for 2 reasons. First the leafs had the cap space to accommodate a massive 1st year cap hit from signing late. Secondly Michael Nylander is a tough negotiator.

At the time of Barkovs contract he has 2 seasons and a half season under his belt as he signed in January. He put up 24 points in 54 games and 36 points in 71 games.

MacKinnon put up 63 points, 38 and 52 points before his contract.

You could easily argue at the time of their contracts they both had a worse production history than Nylander.

Looking at players who got contracts before they breakout is a really poor idea.

 

[DRW204]

what i've learned in my time on HFBoards is that 5v5 per 60 stats are everything. Marner was top 5 in the league, pretty much tied with JT and superior to AM34, so i expect him to be paid more

but in all seriousness, the Leafs brass might not see Marner at Kane's 10.5, however Ferris probably sees him there or beyond

 

[WingsMJN2965]

How does how Larkin is playing now have any bearing on when he signed his contract last summer?

I was actually pretty clear in stating "Before the start of this year" when I claimed they were even...

As you said Larkin and Nylander were similar level talents with Nylander having a better track record and Larkin playing a more important position. Nylander ended up getting paid a little more but got the extra year of control.

I actually didn't say Nylander had a better track record... I clearly pointed out the lineman argument as partial reasoning for why Nylander was in a better position to put up numbers. And if the extra year justifies Nylander getting $900K more, Toronto's really f***ed if Marner wants full term.

This doesnt debunk anything, Nylander was overpaid for 2 reasons. First the leafs had the cap space to accommodate a massive 1st year cap hit from signing late. Secondly Michael Nylander is a tough negotiator.

Uhh... He's still overpaid in the remaining 5 years. Nobody's even paying attention to that $10.6M cap hit the first year. And evidently Michael Nylander is a tougher negotiator than Dubas, which is not a good reputation for your GM to have coming into negotiations with an elite player who looks like he's gonna fight for every dollar.... Which is kinda the point people are making in this thread.

At the time of Barkovs contract he has 2 seasons and a half season under his belt as he signed in January. He put up 24 points in 54 games and 36 points in 71 games.

MacKinnon put up 63 points, 38 and 52 points before his contract.

You could easily argue at the time of their contracts they both had a worse production history than Nylander.

Looking at players who got contracts before they breakout is a really poor idea.

You could argue that... You could also argue that it's pretty common sense they both were going to be superstars and had been playing for shit teams. Neither were racking up points passing pucks to Auston Matthews.

 

[Tripod]

You've missed the entire premise of the discussion.

Let me spell out simple.

McDavid gave discount. Matthews know McDavid gave discount. Matthews choose not to give discount, sets demand based on McDavid worth, not McDavid discounted contract.

"“This may be one of the largest contracts ever given in the NHL, but I can assure you it easily could have been a lot higher in value and shorter in term,” Chiarelli said."
Connor McDavid signs major hometown discount deal with Edmonton Oilers

Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid's only legitimate comparable, signed for 17.3% x 5 years. McDavid chose to sign for 16.7 x8.

So if Marner signs for 11 million x7 years, is that not fair in your opinion, knowing that say McDavid and Matthews "could" be at 14 million on long term deals if they took what they were worth?

That is Marner taking 3 million less. Is that not more than fair considering he just had a better PPG than Matthews?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I'm still hung up on the fact that Marner is somehow going to make $2.5M less/per than Matthews because he plays the wing and has one less point every 25 games over his career.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I was actually pretty clear in stating "Before the start of this year" when I claimed they were even...



I actually didn't say Nylander had a better track record... I clearly pointed out the lineman argument as partial reasoning for why Nylander was in a better position to put up numbers. And if the extra year justifies Nylander getting $900K more, Toronto's really ****ed if Marner wants full term.



Uhh... He's still overpaid in the remaining 5 years. Nobody's even paying attention to that $10.6M cap hit the first year. And evidently Michael Nylander is a tougher negotiator than Dubas, which is not a good reputation for your GM to have coming into negotiations with an elite player who looks like he's gonna fight for every dollar.... Which is kinda the point people are making in this thread.



You could argue that... You could also argue that it's pretty common sense they both were going to be superstars and had been playing for **** teams. Neither were racking up points passing pucks to Auston Matthews.

Nylander for sure had a better track record than Larkin last summer but I understand the linemate argument. It is impossible to tell how much of a difference it would make though.

As I said, Nylander was overpaid by like half a million, however the extra year of term and better track record than Larkin even though Larkin plays center, I can see why they would give that contract out. I think you are underestimating how rare it was for a player to post back to back 60+ point seasons to start their career.

The reason that very expensive first year is important is because if the leafs didnt have the cap space to sign a contract mid season Nylander would have either signed in the summer or known he was sitting the year out as soon as the season started.

Ya but you could also say the same thing about Nylander, you can tell he was/is going to become a star and also had the track record to back it up rather than a few mediocre seasons that ended up bringing Barkov and MacKinnon's deals down.

Finally I'm guessing you hardly watch the leafs because if you did you would have realized in their first two seasons Nylander+Matthews were one of the best duo at even strength in the league and Nylander wasnt just a product of Matthews. Good players get to play with other good players, not just exclusive to the leafs lol

 

[Tripod]

As a reminder, Nylander got paid $114,137.15 per point based off his 61 point season. Based on Marner's 94 points, that same $/pt is $10,728,892 for Marner.

That's is the absolute bare minimum I take if I am Marner.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

They better be prepared for him to say "okay, 5 year deal" then

Which will be fine as in five years some kid out west will say he will only be traded to the leafs

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Nylander for sure had a better track record than Larkin last summer but I understand the linemate argument. It is impossible to tell how much of a difference it would make though.

As I said, Nylander was overpaid by like half a million, however the extra year of term and better track record than Larkin even though Larkin plays center, I can see why they would give that contract out. I think you are underestimating how rare it was for a player to post back to back 60+ point seasons to start their career.

The reason that very expensive first year is important is because if the leafs didnt have the cap space to sign a contract mid season Nylander would have either signed in the summer or known he was sitting the year out as soon as the season started.

Ya but you could also say the same thing about Nylander, you can tell he was/is going to become a star and also had the track record to back it up rather than a few mediocre seasons bringing Barkov and MacKinnon's deals down.

Finally I'm guessing you hardly watch the leafs because if you did you would have realized in their first two seasons Nylander+Matthews were one of the best duo at even strength in the league and Nylander wasnt just a product of Matthews. Good players get to play with other good players, not just exclusive to the leafs lol

FWIW, I'm not saying Nylander isn't a good player. The point in the linemate argument is that they're putting up similar numbers, with one playing with a league superstar and the other playing with middle 6 wingers.

As far as even strength production goes, the year before he signed his deal, Larkin had more ES points than Crosby.

 

[Hunter368]

Okay, GMs care a lot about ES production but your welcome to ignore it.

I think your right, Marner will end up getting a double digit AAV, hopefully closer to max term. It will be a severe overpayment though when you consider actual comparables (I.e. wingers). I guess we will see what guys like Rantenen make before I call it a severe overpayment but ya paying Marner more than Kutch will be criminal.

Crazy how I'm seeing almost exclusively centers as Marner's comprables yet for other wingers you can only use exclusively wingers as comprables. Seems odd to me.

Bobby Mac is even saying Rantenen is likely asking 11 million this summer......so Marner won’t be asking anything less.

Not saying one doesn’t exist, but I’ve never seen any study or evidence or direct link between ES scoring vs salary vs comparable players. Not saying it isn’t a factor, but act like it’s the sole factor and it isn’t.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

FWIW, I'm not saying Nylander isn't a good player. The point in the linemate argument is that they're putting up similar numbers, with one playing with a league superstar and the other playing with middle 6 wingers.

As far as even strength production goes, the year before he signed his deal, Larkin had more ES points than Crosby.

I figured your werent.

Matthews was a superstar his first two seasons? I was just told he was an overpaid 73 point player though lol.

Larkin had 51 ES points in 2017/18, Crosby also had 51 and Nylander had 48. Defitnely some great production from the youngsters.

Not sure how Crosby is relevant in this discussion especially when Nylander out produced Larkin significantly at ES the previous year.

I have no interest of making this into a Nylander vs Larkin thread so will try to not comment on that anymore.

 

[Hunter368]

I don't 100% on this, but here is why.

Sometimes PP points are about opportunity. To use the Flyers as an example, they stack the 1st unit. Giroux, Voracek, Ghost, Was Simmonds, was Schenn. Someone like Couturier never got the chance to get lots of PP points just due to opportunity. Yes he played on the 2nd unit, but the unit was awful. He had PP points of 1, 4, 3, 6, 7, and 2. So certainly nothing special. But then Schenn got traded, and after Hakstol tried Filppula AND FAILED as Schenn's replacement, Couts was given the chance in November(2 years ago). Couturier has now produced 14 and 17 PP points the last 2 years since Schenn was traded.

Or if teh Flyers were to look to trade for someone, I WOULD want to look at their ES points because they might not get that PP opportunity on the Flyers which could drop their overall points downward.

So sometimes, you do need to look at things like that.

But I do agree that people try and discount PP points as if just anyone can get them. That's not true at all. Anyone with a struggling PP despite great players on it proves it. Hell, the Leafs are good example. At one point, people were asking if they would have the best PP% ever. PP points are not a given.

Oh I agree it’s a factor, just not as much as some seem to think here. Plus I agree PP points can be affected by opportunities.....but so can ES scoring IE Hyman.......his ES point totals are largely effected by opportunities. Just as one example. IMO ES and real points are all factors........but I see far to often people comparing their 3rd line plug who has 2 more ES points & 30 total points to your 70 point 1st liner. 3rd line plug isn’t even close as talented as that 1st line player.

 

[justafan22]

I don't get why people think Marner will get any less than Matthews gets. Marner getting the same exact deal as Matthews fits with what Crosby/Malkin and Toews/Kane did after their ELCs finished. Crosby and Malkin both got $8.7 million a year deals on 5 year deals and both Toews and Kane got $6.3 million a year deals on 5 year deals. Matthews getting $11.5ish million a 5 year deal would logically lock Marner in at the same deal based on those other deals.

It's a hilarious overpay. Marner and Matthews aren't worth that type of dough.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Bobby Mac is even saying Rantenen is likely asking 11 million this summer......so Marner won’t be asking anything less.

Not saying one doesn’t exist, but I’ve never seen any study or evidence or direct link between ES scoring vs salary vs comparable players. Not saying it isn’t a factor, but act like it’s the sole factor and it isn’t.

What term has Mac said for Rantanen? Curious.

I'm not trying to act like it is the sole factor. I was pointing out that Matthews produced more ES points on average over the past 3 years while also scoring significantly more goals and playing with significantly worse linemates this year yet still posted a similar PPG. He also entered the league a year earlier and is a center.

These are the reasons why Marner shouldnt be paid similarly to Matthews yet he may end up as Leafs negotiations have been subpar.

 

[hyduK]

So without Marner they are the 4th/5th best team in the league? ... With that defense? LOL ok.

Yes.

It's not like they're going to get rid of Marner and just not do anything with that 11 million cap dollars and 4 1st rounders. The expectation is that they would use that to make the D better and sign some help at forward.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don't get why people think Marner will get any less than Matthews gets. Marner getting the same exact deal as Matthews fits with what Crosby/Malkin and Toews/Kane did after their ELCs finished. Crosby and Malkin both got $8.7 million a year deals on 5 year deals and both Toews and Kane got $6.3 million a year deals on 5 year deals. Matthews getting $11.5ish million a 5 year deal would logically lock Marner in at the same deal based on those other deals.

For whatever reason people arent using Toews/Kane's first deal after their ELC, they are using their third contract after multiple cup wins.

Kane got 11.09% on his first contract after ELC which with a 83 million dollar ceiling is 9.2 million for 5 years.

Malkin/Crosby are both centers and not comparables to Marner.

 

[Empoleon8771]

For whatever reason people arent using Toews/Kane's first deal after their ELC, they are using their third contract after multiple cup wins.

Kane got 11.09% on his first contract after ELC which with a 83 million dollar ceiling is 9.2 million for 5 years.

Malkin/Crosby are both centers and not comparables to Marner.

What matters more, what percentage of the cap Kane got after his ELC or what Matthews got in a contract a couple of months ago? If you're saying anything but the second one, I have some bad news for you. Marner's going to get the same contract as Matthews (or close to it), or he's not going to be playing for Toronto.

 

[Hunter368]

What term has Mac said for Rantanen? Curious.

I'm not trying to act like it is the sole factor. I was pointing out that Matthews produced more ES points on average over the past 3 years while also scoring significantly more goals and playing with significantly worse linemates this year yet still posted a similar PPG. He also entered the league a year earlier and is a center.

These are the reasons why Marner shouldnt be paid similarly to Matthews yet he may end up as Leafs negotiations have been subpar.

AM is the better goal scorer.

Marner produced more points, before people say PPG or PP60......durability is an asset just as much or more then skill so we can count that against Marner.

As stated the whole centre vs winger debate is overblown in general and especially with Marner who brings the assets that a centre does.

Quality of line mates? Not sure about that, Marner played time on the 3rd and 4th lines with grinders......AM has played long stretches with Nylander & KK.......obviously Hyman is who you are referring to which is fair comment.

Both are the same age and started the same year in the NHL.

IIRC Marner produced more ES this year (might be wrong, on cell can’t confirm) and AM more the two previous years.

So i don’t see a ton difference between them TBH......biggest argument would be goal scoring.......but that is partly offset by Marner scoring more points. Not huge difference and I suspect that’s how Marner & his camp see it which is what matters. Like I said I could see Marner giving a little taking hair less cap hit and one more year of term. Either way it’s going to be a huge cap hit and a problem to deal with.

Bobby Mac did lent comment on term, just cap hit for Rant.

 

[Nizdizzle]

AM is the better goal scorer.

Marner produced more points, before people say PPG or PP60......durability is an asset just as much or more then skill so we can count that against Marner.

As stated the whole centre vs winger debate is overblown in general and especially with Marner who brings the assets that a centre does.

Quality of line mates? Not sure about that, Marner played time on the 3rd and 4th lines with grinders......AM has played long stretches with Nylander & KK.......obviously Hyman is who you are referring to which is fair comment.

Both are the same age and started the same year in the NHL.

IIRC Marner produced more ES this year (might be wrong, on cell can’t confirm) and AM more the two previous years.

So i don’t see a ton difference between them TBH......biggest argument would be goal scoring.......but that is partly offset by Marner scoring more points. Not huge difference and I suspect that’s how Marner & his camp see it which is what matters. Like I said I could see Marner giving a little taking hair less cap hit and one more year of term. Either way it’s going to be a huge cap hit and a problem to deal with.

Bobby Mac did lent comment on term, just cap hit for Rant.

Marner spent zero time on the 3rd/4th line this year. He spent almsost every single shift with Hyman-Tavares. Matthews spent the entire year with a combination of Johnsson/Kapanen and a bit of Nylander.