The comparable I'd look at is Pavelski's 3 x $7M in 2019.
Roughly the same age. Roughly the same production. It'd inflate to about $7.95M under a $92.5M cap.
Not a good comparison at all...
Pavelski wasn't re-signing with his team so he likely went to the highest bidder. JT also had made a lot more during his career at this point whereas this was Pavelski's highest contract aav.
He was also coming off a 38g season and JT's last season was 29g in a higher scoring season.
I'm not making an argument that JT can't get more $ from a desperate team in UFA compared to the Leafs... I'm saying he's not worth that anymore and he shouldn't touch anything close to that if he stays with the Leafs.
I'm a big JT fan.
His real value right now (we'll see how this season goes) is probably around 2x6.5m/yr and goes down if he prefers more years.
For the Leafs, Id expect something around 5m/yr. As a UFA, im sure he gets a bid at 7m+.