Not sure if it's "recent", but Alex Tuch signed for 7 x $4.75M in 2018 after a 15 goal, 37 point season. I think he was 22 years old.
I wouldn't call it recent as it was signed October 2018, but his production and age when signing that deal is a solid comparison.
The problem, however, is that Tuch's deal in 2018 would inflate to $5.5M+ under a $92.5M cap. (I'm using that one by OPs own complaint that GM's assume the following year's cap) Tuch was also in his D+5 when he signed it. Knies would be D+4. That's a minor difference, though.
So you don't have any recent examples. Got it.
Your "Imaginary threshold" isn't imaginary. You don't have any recent examples of the contract you suggested
because players haven't signed contracts like that in years. The best you could do is come up with comparisons that were
double the total you're asking Knies to sign. These are not in the same stratosphere and you know it.
The best you could maybe come up with is Kotkaniemi, (Inflates to $5.4M/year) and that's turning out splendidly for Carolina.