Friedman: Leafs and Knies talking extension

[Sidney the Kidney]

8 years x $6.5M
6 years x $5.5M
4 years x $4.75M
2 years x $4.25M

The two bolded are probably the best options for him.

 

[Jared Dunn]

No one thinks Knies is a double digit player in his prime, so on a 5M AAV how much is he potentially shortchanging himself? 3M? And likely he was overpaid his first year or two at 5M to balance that out.

Do you really think he's going to sign a long-term deal at a sweetheart number when he's poised to be stapled to Matthews' wing for a year? He could flirt with 60 points this season

 

[DackellDuck]

Shane Pinto signed a 2 year bridge at $3.5M and was reportedly seeking $5M AAV on a 4-6 year deal.

I'd expect a similar bridge or mid-term extension for Knies (maybe slightly higher with a rising cap).

2x3.75M
4/5x5.25M
7/8x6M

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If you’re a big believer you probably try to get him at 8x$6M

Tough to say no to $50 mil if you’re him

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

*yawn* that cap structure is over. 22M off the books after this year.

True. Treliving proved he was much different from Dubas when he gave Nylander more than Pastrnak...

 

[HockeyVirus]

True. Treliving proved he was much different from Dubas when he gave Nylander more than Pastrnak...

That's how the cap works yes, as years go on player salaries go up

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

That's how the cap works yes, as years go on player salaries go up

Pasta and Nylander were signed 10 months apart.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Pasta and Nylander were signed 10 months apart.

They were signed with a difference of the cap of 5%.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

They were signed with a difference of the cap of 5%.

Pasta was signed under an $82.5M cap.
Nylander was signed under an $83.5M cap.

You may want to work on those math skills.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Pasta was signed under an $82.5M cap.
Nylander was signed under an $83.5M cap.

You may want to work on those math skills.

Nylander deal kicks in this season which is 88

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Nylander deal kicks in this season which is 88

Nylander deal was signed when the known cap was $83.5M. But you keep trying.

 

[CanadienShark]

I can't see him taking a long term deal, since he hasn't earned a high cap hit yet. I think they'll bridge him. The Leafs would be lucky to get him at a 4-4.5m cap hit long term, but I don't see it working.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Nylander deal was signed when the known cap was $83.5M. But you keep trying.

No, everyone knew the cap would be around 88 when the deal was being negotiated 8 months ago.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

No, everyone knew the cap would be around 88 when the deal was being negotiated 8 months ago.

There's still multiple a BOG meeting between January when Nylander was signed and when the cap was set, but again, you keep trying.

Even if you want to take your pathetic argument into consideration, it means f*** all when you consider that, inflated, Pasta only makes $350K more than Nylander. So uhh... Good one I guess?

 

[seanlinden]

My reasoning is pretty similar to yours

The risk of an 8 year deal is that Matthews leaves/isnt a capable best player to lead a team to a cup(which despite his repeated playoff failures so far, he still is good enough to win with, he needs to find a way to put it together come spring)

6 year deal is best case, as if Knies is a 55-65 pt PWF we can sell him off for a lot with 2 years left is Matthews walks to kickstart the rebuild. Teams may not want him at 8 year term (4 years left) as its a lot of term and risk of his next deal being one where PWFs fall of in year 2 or 3 of

It also works if Matthews extends, nd the team has won or is close to winning by then as 2 super cheap years at 4.5M before we can extend him to a bigger deal at only 28 years of age vs 30 (2 years could be huge if he falls of at 32/33 and we give him 7-8 years his next deal)

I don't think you get 6 years out of Knies at $4.5m.

Everyone knows the cap is going to jump immensely. Auston Matthews is the epitome of doing that with the 4 year deal so he can get another hit at it.

If he's listening to Auston Matthews (probably, given that probably idolized Matthews growing up), he'll likely want a much higher premium for giving up years 5 and 6.

Personally, I can see a world where you can get Knies at $4.5m x 4.

To get 6 years out of him, it probably needs to be a $5.5 to $6m deal... just based on what Kaiden Guhle ($5.5x6) and Guenther ($7.15x8).

If you're the Leafs, does it make sense to pay an extra $1 - $1.5m for another 2 years? I guess that comes down to whether you think you think that extra bit of cap space might be the difference between winning and losing over the next 4 years.

Personally, looking at where the Leafs are at in contract situations and ages with Matthews & Nylander, I'm a bit more inclined to go 4 years.... especially if he's subscribing to the Matthews school of thought and is adverse to doing an 8-year deal. Most of the teams doing these types of deals with young players aren't very good today.

 

[fahad203]

8 years at 7.5
Kinda like Slaf for Habs signed

 

[hamzarocks]

8 years at 7.5
Kinda like Slaf for Habs signed

No way he gets that much

lower ceiling, less production and lower draft pedigree

He would need to be 70 point player this year to get that type of deal

 

[Ghost of Murph]

For sure Knies should do a short-term deal. The Leafs won't be able to offer him a long-term deal that is commensurate with his ceiling during that time. He needs to bet on himself and wait to sign a long-term deal in 3-4 years. He's going to be a fantastic player as his game continues to grow.

 

[fahad203]

No way he gets that much

lower ceiling, less production and lower draft pedigree

He would need to be 70 point player this year to get that type of deal

His point production wasn't too far off considering that's his first year. Juraj was 2nd year

Draft standings don't mean much here. I would argue Knies has potential to be a power forward and he's more physical

I can't see him locking in for long term without getting a 7 season

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

His point production wasn't too far off considering that's his first year. Juraj was 2nd year

Draft standings don't mean much here. I would argue Knies has potential to be a power forward and he's more physical

I can't see him locking in for long term without getting a 7 season

Slaf is a year younger...

 

[HockeyVirus]

There's still multiple a BOG meeting between January when Nylander was signed and when the cap was set, but again, you keep trying.

Even if you want to take your pathetic argument into consideration, it means f*** all when you consider that, inflated, Pasta only makes $350K more than Nylander. So uhh... Good one I guess?

I mean, Nylander is a good player I have no complaints of his price.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I mean, Nylander is a good player I have no complaints of his price.

I appreciate your concession that he's overpaid, and that you were wrong to claim that we're past the days of Leafs management overpaying their core players. Thank you.

Now that we're past that, you can go back to comparing Knies taking 8 x $4M to Faber, (8 x $8.5M) Sanderson (8 x $8.05M) and Slafkovsky. (8 x $7.6M)

 

[Fatass]

... Why would Knies sign an 8 x $4M deal.

Yup. Term means 8 mil or more for the AAV. Likely he accepts a bridge deal at 5-6 mil x 3/4 years.

 

[centipede2233]

4 yrs x $11 mil to replace the taveras caphit

 

[seanlinden]

His point production wasn't too far off considering that's his first year. Juraj was 2nd year

Draft standings don't mean much here. I would argue Knies has potential to be a power forward and he's more physical

I can't see him locking in for long term without getting a 7 season

Draft pedigree is not irrelevant here... Slaf is viewed as a guy that probably has point-per game upside, if not higher, and to drive a line offensively.

Knies, most would probably view as an ultimate complimentary piece, maybe flirts in the 70s if he's got the right set of linemates, but not really an offesive driver.

That being said, I would agree with you, that he's not signing an 8-year deal without getting $7m per, which is why the right deal is probably a 4-year at $4.5m or 6-year at $5.5m to $6m.