Friedman: Leafs and Knies talking extension

[Community]

Then he'll be going somewhere else, I guess.

Possibly. But he's not worth it anymore and I'm still a fan of JT's.

Could see a Stammer situation again, but I'm leaning towards JT preferring to stay in Toronto rather than relocate given hes made a lot of $ the last 7 years. If he wants to chase the bank again, I'll wish him good luck!

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Possibly. But he's not worth it anymore and I'm still a fan of JT's.

Could see a Stammer situation again, but I'm leaning towards JT preferring to stay in Toronto rather than relocate given hes made a lot of $ the last 7 years. If he wants to chase the bank again, I'll wish him good luck!

The comparable I'd look at is Pavelski's 3 x $7M in 2019.

Roughly the same age. Roughly the same production. It'd inflate to about $7.95M under a $92.5M cap.

 

[saska sault]

Delete.

 

[Community]

The comparable I'd look at is Pavelski's 3 x $7M in 2019.

Roughly the same age. Roughly the same production. It'd inflate to about $7.95M under a $92.5M cap.

Not a good comparison at all...

Pavelski wasn't re-signing with his team so he likely went to the highest bidder. JT also had made a lot more during his career at this point whereas this was Pavelski's highest contract aav.

He was also coming off a 38g season and JT's last season was 29g in a higher scoring season.

I'm not making an argument that JT can't get more $ from a desperate team in UFA compared to the Leafs... I'm saying he's not worth that anymore and he shouldn't touch anything close to that if he stays with the Leafs.

I'm a big JT fan.

His real value right now (we'll see how this season goes) is probably around 2x6.5m/yr and goes down if he prefers more years.

For the Leafs, Id expect something around 5m/yr. As a UFA, im sure he gets a bid at 7m+.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Not a good comparison at all...

Pavelski wasn't re-signing with his team so he likely went to the highest bidder. JT also had made a lot more during his career at this point whereas this was Pavelski's highest contract aav.

He was also coming off a 38g season and JT's last season was 29g in a higher scoring season.

I'm not making an argument that JT can't get more $ from a desperate team in UFA compared to the Leafs... I'm saying he's not worth that anymore and he shouldn't touch anything close to that if he stays with the Leafs.

I'm a big JT fan.

His real value right now (we'll see how this season goes) is probably around 2x6.5m/yr and goes down if he prefers more years.

For the Leafs, Id expect something around 5m/yr. As a UFA, im sure he gets a bid at 7m+.

Their production is relatively similar even if one is weighted toward goals. Fair point that he was UFA, but I don't see there being a $3M difference between JT being on the UFA market or re-signing in Toronto.

He'd essentially have to take a home town discount, which is always possible... But he certainly didn't do it the first time.

EDIT: If you want a non-UFA extension, you could also look at Kane. 1 x $5.5M (Potentially $6.5M) and while Kane produced at a better rate than JT, he's also older and has the circumstances of his hip surgery.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not a good comparison at all...

Pavelski wasn't re-signing with his team so he likely went to the highest bidder. JT also had made a lot more during his career at this point whereas this was Pavelski's highest contract aav.

He was also coming off a 38g season and JT's last season was 29g in a higher scoring season.

I'm not making an argument that JT can't get more $ from a desperate team in UFA compared to the Leafs... I'm saying he's not worth that anymore and he shouldn't touch anything close to that if he stays with the Leafs.

I'm a big JT fan.

His real value right now (we'll see how this season goes) is probably around 2x6.5m/yr and goes down if he prefers more years.

For the Leafs, Id expect something around 5m/yr. As a UFA, im sure he gets a bid at 7m+.

Giroux could be a comparison

 

[dj Mahoney]

If his agent is any good at all he easily secure's $5 million a year .With Marner most likely leaving ), he'll take 5 years at least .

 

[Community]

Giroux could be a comparison

Probably a decent comparison, but he also signed for a different team.

Yes, if JT signs for elsewhere he could probably get somewhere between Giroux - Pavelski $. However, that's still less than $7.5 and not what he would get from Leafs.

It's pretty simple, if he wants to stay then we need him at a contract that we believe will be valuable throughout the rest of Matthews contract (at minimum). I don't think it makes any to give him a fair contract for day 1 that is likely an anchor in years 2/3/4.

 

[Bankerguy]

he should get Hoglanders contract maybe?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Probably a decent comparison, but he also signed for a different team.

Yes, if JT signs for elsewhere he could probably get somewhere between Giroux - Pavelski $. However, that's still less than $7.5 and not what he would get from Leafs.

It's pretty simple, if he wants to stay then we need him at a contract that we believe will be valuable throughout the rest of Matthews contract (at minimum). I don't think it makes any to give him a fair contract for day 1 that is likely an anchor in years 2/3/4.

Giroux inflates to $7.3M. Pavelski inflates to $7.95M.

So "Between Giroux and Pavelski" puts him squarely around $7.6M.

 

[Community]

he should get Hoglanders contract maybe?

Leafs fans would be ecstatic about a 3x3 extention. However, I think he would be in for more than that if he signed today as Knies and Hoglander's last seasons were comparable despite it being Knies rookie season (Hoglanders 4th) and Knies being a few younger.

Giroux inflates to $7.3M. Pavelski inflates to $7.95M.

So "Between Giroux and Pavelski" puts him squarely around $7.6M.

It's a knies thread so I'll just simplify to I think he can get around that from another team. He won't get that from the Leafs.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It's a knies thread so I'll just simplify to I think he can get around that from another team. He won't get that from the Leafs.

What are you saying, leafs have to pay more than other teams, or leafs will pay less?

 

[fahad203]

Leafs fans would be ecstatic about a 3x3 extention. However, I think he would be in for more than that if he signed today as Knies and Hoglander's last seasons were comparable despite it being Knies rookie season (Hoglanders 4th) and Knies being a few younger.



It's a knies thread so I'll just simplify to I think he can get around that from another team. He won't get that from the Leafs.

I think his comparable will be more in the lines of Dylan Guenther

Their point productions are same. Similar age category

 

[Community]

What are you saying, leafs have to pay more than other teams, or leafs will pay less?

See previous posts. For the Leafs, it's will JT accept a hometown discount or not. If no, at this point its an easy one to move on from.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I think his comparable will be more in the lines of Dylan Guenther

Their point productions are same. Similar age category

They both put up 35 points... Difference is Guenther did it in 35 less games.

That's a mammoth sized difference.

 

[fahad203]

They both put up 35 points... Difference is Guenther did it in 35 less games.

That's a mammoth sized difference.

Sure. Not disagreeing.
Dylan also played for a crappier team

But dylans also played the year before in NHL 33 games

You are paying of these player based on potential.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Then he'll be going somewhere else, I guess.

FWIW, I actually think that'd be a good call on the Leafs end, but JT can absolutely get $7.5M, if not more, on a 2-3 year deal.

He has no interest in going elsewhere. Tavares will take a team friendly deal to stay in Toronto and not move his family.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Sure. Not disagreeing.
Dylan also played for a crappier team

But dylans also played the year before in NHL 33 games

You are paying of these player based on potential.

I mean yeah, but your argument was their production was similar, when it wasn't remotely close.

Realistically, Guenther's production potential is significantly higher than Knies'. Knies makes up some value in his status as a coveted power forward.

He has no interest in going elsewhere. Tavares will take a team friendly deal to stay in Toronto and not move his family.

Toronto notorious for signing those team friendly deals.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Toronto notorious for signing those team friendly deals.

The Leafs really don't care if he walks that is the difference

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

The Leafs really don't care if he walks that is the difference

"Wanna go to prom with me?!"

"Eww. No."

"Well I didn't want to go with you anyways!"