Proposal: Lafreniere for 1st pick Habs 2022

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Look your argument is: everyone else just stat watches, BUT these stats prove he isn't as bad as people think.

It's true most people stat watch and that's their argument, but you'd be hard pressed to find a non-Rangers fan who regularly watches Lafreniere that holds him in a positive light.

Unfortunately, he doesn't look good out there. That's fine, because players can turn it around; just look at Troy Terry!

You distorted my argument. I said the box-score stats, which is what most people look at, suggest one thing that’s incorrect and would be recognized by these people if they watched him play. I don’t know who these Rangers fans are that you cite, but I don’t care. I watch the team play and have my opinion, if you or others disagree.

 

[SensontheRush]

You distorted my argument. I said the box-score stats, which is what most people look at, suggest one thing that’s incorrect and would be recognized by these people if they watched him play. I don’t know who these Rangers fans are that you cite, but I don’t care. I watch the team play and have my opinion, if you or others disagree.

What exactly do the box-score stats suggest that is incorrect? From what I gather, the box stats would suggest "he is struggling", and then the stats you provide do a better job explaining why he is struggling. I think it would be incorrect to suggest that he isn't struggling.

I didn't mean to misconstrue your argument, I guess I was expecting some qualitative analysis.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What exactly do the box-score stats suggest that is incorrect? From what I gather, the box stats would suggest "he is struggling", and then the stats you provide do a better job explaining why he is struggling. I think it would be incorrect to suggest that he isn't struggling.

Players can play well or less than well without struggling if they aren’t accumulating box score stats. I am not saying the box score is irrelevant, but I think with some better fortune the box score stats would look better and I also think that what people think from looking at the box score isn’t exactly what is happening on the ice.

 

[crazyd74]

Just dream on. The Habs won't trade 5th overall + Caufield for Laff.

They've done bad trades with NYR before....

 

[Ola]

A couple of posters on this page liked the idea. Top 5 pick in the upcoming draft + Caufield >> Laff. Habs would never do this.

Yeah, I don't know, but that is the only thing that the Habs could offer to get the deal done and it is not even sure that its enough.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Yeah, I don't know, but that is the only thing that the Habs could offer to get the deal done and it is not even sure that its enough.

Why we need to get the deal done? You made it sound like Laff is scoring at a torrid pace and everyone wanted to trade for him. Up to this point, he is a big failure for 1st overall pick. If he get traded to Montreal, it will be another Drouin and a 2nd Drouin is not what the Habs needed.

 

[JustAHabFan]

They've done bad trades with NYR before....

It goes both ways. The NYR has also been burnt with trade with the Habs. We tried to get a Francophone star in Drouin and look how that trade turned out. At least Drouin looked decent before he went to Montreal. I could not say the same with Laff.

 

[barbu]

If not done yet, it's time for the "but why?" Gif

 

[Tables of Stats]

Let’s call this situation for what it is. The overwhelming majority of people criticizing Lafreniere don’t watch him play with any regularity. They look at a box score, and that’s the extent of their knowledge. Is the guy lighting it up? No, but he also isn’t doing as bad as the box score watchers claim.

He plays 13 minutes a game. His ice time is down from last season. He plays so little because our top two LW take up a lot of the minutes and our coach overplays the fourth line. He also has been remarkably unlucky to not have scored a PP point in his career. His PP numbers aren’t even that bad in underlying metrics. He just has had ridiculously bad luck in accumulating PP points. This will correct itself at some point.

His line mates this season have the first and second worst on ice SH% this season on the team, and he’s not much better at 6th. All the guys around them in those stats are the grinders that you’d expect to struggle to finish chances. If any of these areas, PP, ES, or TOI normalized a little, his numbers would be right in line with all the other young players who’ve struggled to make a huge jump right away. His stats look bad because he’s gotten just about everything going against him in these categories.

We didn’t ask for this thread and we don’t ask for all this nonsense criticism from people who have no idea how he’s played in the NHL. We will be gladly keep Lafreniere, and he will prove these box score watchers wrong.

So if this is the case why hasn't he at least outmatched Hoglander's rookie season? Hoglander only played 15:30 per game and put up 26 even-strength points and a single PP point on a worse Canucks team. Is our second-round pick just extra gifted or is Laf just the least lucky player in the NHL?

 

[93LEAFS]

It goes both ways. The NYR has also been burnt with trade with the Habs. We tried to get a Francophone star in Drouin and look how that trade turned out. At least Drouin looked decent before he went to Montreal. I could not say the same with Laff.

The worst trade the Habs made with them, I doubt anyone is even thinking about (Harvey being traded for scraps for trying to start a union).

 

[Lockin17]

Stutzle and Raymond have a much better start

 

[Ola]

Why we need to get the deal done? You made it sound like Laff is scoring at a torrid pace and everyone wanted to trade for him. Up to this point, he is a big failure for 1st overall pick. If he get traded to Montreal, it will be another Drouin and a 2nd Drouin is not what the Habs needed.

I never said you did.

And are you comparing Laf to Drouin? That have to stand for you, I don’t believe that for a second. Laf is a special talent, but it’s a tough league for a kid and he isn’t getting any PP time. With a big role on a great PP he could be close to a PPG, does it matter? Look at Laine. You can put up pts without being complete and capable of dominating 5 on 5.

 

[Ola]

So if this is the case why hasn't he at least outmatched Hoglander's rookie season? Hoglander only played 15:30 per game and put up 26 even-strength points and a single PP point on a worse Canucks team. Is our second-round pick just extra gifted or is Laf just the least lucky player in the NHL?

Its hard to describe, but Laf is just better than Hoglander, without taking anything away from the former.

Hockey is a bit hard to understand if you never played, but if you follow it for a little longer you will start to learn more what it is about.

 

[TGWL]

Look your argument is: everyone else just stat watches, BUT these stats prove he isn't as bad as people think.

It's true most people stat watch and that's their argument, but you'd be hard pressed to find a non-Rangers fan who regularly watches Lafreniere that holds him in a positive light.

Unfortunately, he doesn't look good out there. That's fine, because players can turn it around; just look at Troy Terry!

If you box-score watch you'll find that Laf is not very good. If you actually dive in and watch our games, you'll find that Laf is far worse than the box-score...

 

[Tables of Stats]

Its hard to describe, but Laf is just better than Hoglander, without taking anything away from the former.

Hockey is a bit hard to understand if you never played, but if you follow it for a little longer you will start to learn more what it is about.

Good players put up points even when stapled to plugs.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So if this is the case why hasn't he at least outmatched Hoglander's rookie season? Hoglander only played 15:30 per game and put up 26 even-strength points and a single PP point on a worse Canucks team. Is our second-round pick just extra gifted or is Laf just the least lucky player in the NHL?

Did I not explain that? I thought the post you responded to was quite clear.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Did I not explain that? I thought the post you responded to was quite clear.

It wasn't really.

Like is Laf's shooting percentage poor because he's firing muffins at the goalie's chest or is he firing lasers that are finding gloves and posts? Either could be responsible for a low shooting percentage but one is clearly more likely to score goals than the other. Likewise, vis-a-vis his linemates, is he feeding them passes that they just can't finish, or is the whole line just not clicking? Is he playing hard on the puck, or is he letting his less skilled teammates go in for it while waiting in the slot for a pass?

You stated some numbers, but those are just stats the same way his point total is. What is he doing on the ice that isn't translating?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It wasn't really.

Like is Laf's shooting percentage poor because he's firing muffins at the goalie's chest or is he firing lasers that are finding gloves and posts? Either could be responsible for a low shooting percentage but one is clearly more likely to score goals than the other. Likewise, vis-a-vis his linemates, is he feeding them passes that they just can't finish, or is the whole line just not clicking? Is he playing hard on the puck, or is he letting his less skilled teammates go in for it while waiting in the slot for a pass?

You stated some numbers, but those are just stats the same way his point total is. What is he doing on the ice that isn't translating?

I think when a first overall pick has extraordinary low minutes, on ice shooting percentage, and zero PP points in over 100 PP minutes it’s a little beyond he could be playing better. Opportunity and luck are absolutely a factor in his counting stats.

 

[LMFAO]

The deal to be made there is obviously


Caufield for Lafrenière

 

[Big Empty]

The deal to be made there is obviously


Caufield for Lafrenière

I’d do that.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I think when a first overall pick has extraordinary low minutes, on ice shooting percentage, and zero PP points in over 100 PP minutes it’s a little beyond he could be playing better. Opportunity and luck are absolutely a factor in his counting stats.

No such thing as luck. If Laf wasn't averaging a pitiful 1.22 shots/GP he'd have more than 18 career goals, if he's playing with plugs that can't finish his passes he needs to find open ice and shoot more.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No such thing as luck. If Laf wasn't averaging a pitiful 1.22 shots/GP he'd have more than 18 career goals, if he's playing with plugs that can't finish his passes he needs to find open ice and shoot more.

Luck is absolutely part of the game. Some people try to complicate this stuff way too much into intangibles when a player is getting lucky or unlucky. These types of things all even out over long samples. Lafreniere will receive some better luck eventually. If that goes with more TOI, his counting stats go up without even playing any better.

 

[Ola]

No such thing as luck. If Laf wasn't averaging a pitiful 1.22 shots/GP he'd have more than 18 career goals, if he's playing with plugs that can't finish his passes he needs to find open ice and shoot more.

Its a very tough league right now to get into for young kids, its saturated in a sense with good prime players that suits the style of play well. Compare it to after the 05' lock-out when the old guard were big and slow and worn out, which resulted that all kids that came in had tremendous success.

Nobody is saying that Laf is a great player today. When a team evaluates Laf it will take into consideration how good and valuable he will be for the team going forward. If you want to close the books on him today, its your right. I can only speak for my self and I do think he will become a really valuable NHL player. But I also think its problematic that he has received so little PP time the last years, for his development. I am not 100% how that will affect his future. But my best guess is still that he will become really good.

 

[bernmeister]

The deal to be made there is obviously


Caufield for Lafrenière

hell no

LaF will be a terror when his legs catch up to the rest of him

 

[BlueBaron]

If the Habs are picking high (hoping they lose the lottery of course) it would be tough to deal that pick when hosting the draft but it is for a top Francophone talent.

I always think they need a C but their fans always tell me I'm wrong so maybe it make sense?