Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread 2022-23 Season Part 2

[Herby]

I think 7-8 year deals CAN be bad, but not always. For instance, a player relying on speed and athleticism who will be in their mid-30's is going to be a worse signing than someone who relies on positioning and intelligence.

Also, the term is less worrisome when the cap number isn't as high. A 7-8 year deal for a guy who only counts $4 million against the cap is less worrisome than someone who counts $11 million against the cap.

If you can get Gavrikov at 7 or 8 years for something like $6 million, that seems a lot less upsetting, no? However, I have ZERO idea what the market will be for him so it's all relative.

Obviously the less money and term the better. But everyone gets worse as they age, bigger less athletic guys, smaller more skilled guys, goaltenders, I don't think it matters, its a big risk all around. There just seems to be a very fine line for many players between being NHL players (even pretty good ones) and being out of the league, we saw that with Richards and Matt Greene. I remember there was some defense of the Greene contract in that he was "slow anyways", well then he got even slower than that and ceased to be an NHL'er real quickly.

The tough spot that the Kings are in is there are 31 other GM's and it only takes 1 to offer 7 years and a ton of money that prices out the Kings. There is already some talk around here (as there always is) about hometown discounts and taking less to live in the South Bay, but that has really never been the reality of the situation anywhere in the league, especially not in a place with the cost of living and taxation of CA. Gabrikov has made roughly $10m in NHL salary in his career, he is 28 years old later this year and this will likely be his final NHL contract, he is going to be looking at making upwards of 4x as much with this contract as he has made in the previous 5 years, I think we should all believe the talk that he wants to maximize his earning potential, and that is fine, he has every right to.

He has been an excellent player for the Kings, and probably projects to be a very good player for anywhere from 3-6 more seasons. But what if someone like Florida offers him 7 years at $42m and they give the Kings the chance to match with 8 years, $48m. That is a whole lot of term and money for a 28 year old.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Spoke on the need to move out some RHD to create room for Clarke/Spence in 23-24, kinda said without saying that it's Walker and/or Durzi (big shocker I know).

Also, mentioned that the last spot on the Right side will be Spence, short of Clarke blowing everyone away in camp.

 

[King'sPawn]

Obviously the less money and term the better. But everyone gets worse as they age, bigger less athletic guys, smaller more skilled guys, goaltenders, I don't think it matters, its a big risk all around. There just seems to be a very fine line for many players between being NHL players (even pretty good ones) and being out of the league, we saw that with Richards and Matt Greene. I remember there was some defense of the Greene contract in that he was "slow anyways", well then he got even slower than that and ceased to be an NHL'er real quickly.

The tough spot that the Kings are in is there are 31 other GM's and it only takes 1 to offer 7 years and a ton of money that prices out the Kings. There is already some talk around here (as there always is) about hometown discounts and taking less to live in the South Bay, but that has really never been the reality of the situation anywhere in the league, especially not in a place with the cost of living and taxation of CA. Gabrikov has made roughly $10m in NHL salary in his career, he is 28 years old later this year and this will likely be his final NHL contract, he is going to be looking at making upwards of 4x as much with this contract as he has made in the previous 5 years, I think we should all believe the talk that he wants to maximize his earning potential, and that is fine, he has every right to.

He has been an excellent player for the Kings, and probably projects to be a very good player for anywhere from 3-6 more seasons. But what if someone like Florida offers him 7 years at $42m and they give the Kings the chance to match with 8 years, $48m. That is a whole lot of term and money for a 28 year old.

While yes, age affects all, the point is that age is just a factor in how things play out. With Gavrikov, he doesn't play a style that wears down on his body as much, very similar to Kopitar. Both are strong players who are strong on the puck, but they don't wear out like bigger players whose style of play is to hit hard and wear down their body.

The contract is inherently a risk because of his age and the hypothetical terms, but it's a calculated risk because he simply doesn't have the same risk factors to wear him down faster. Many people thought Kopitar was done years ago, but here he is, 6 points away from leading the team in scoring again. And he's scoring at his 7th best point-per-game clip since his rookie season (also, fun fact, Kopitar's best scoring clip of 1.12 in the 2017-18 season is better than Fiala's this season; and people were ready to trade Kopitar away then, too).

 

[Herby]

Spoke on the need to move out some RHD to create room for Clarke/Spence in 23-24, kinda said without saying that it's Walker and/or Durzi (big shocker I know).

Also, mentioned that the last spot on the Right side will be Spence, short of Clarke blowing everyone away in camp.

So Clarke to the AHL, I know a shocking development for a team that thinks only "McDavid types" can make the jump without AHL time, oh well at least he's 20 and not 18 or 19 like previous top prospects. Still a pretty slow cook for a #7 pick who is just a massive talent.

Hopefully he can avoid being cheapshotted next season.

They won't be trading Roy as they plan to contend next season, so I guess he is walking after next season? The Kings will really miss Matt Roy, he was one of DL's best picks as Kings GM.

 

[Surf Nutz]

The Athletic preseason projections:

View attachment 669437

I actually pay for this? Looks more like Sol’s projections.

Cancel

Every casual "media" "personality" that "covers" the Kings and has been publicly sobbing about a lack of Chychrun trade for almost two years now owes every other Kings fan a public apology for whipping them up into a needless frenzy.

And that's how you know it was NOT the right move. Guys a chandelier and the NHL is an earthquake fault zone

Gavrikov was a better immediate fit for sure, JC would have been a better long-term fit with the age of the Kings best players and his contract terms. The Kings could very well be in a position where they are either forced to give Gabrikov big money and more concerning, big term to go along with it.

I just have a tough time getting behind 7-8 year deals for players who will be 28 years old. We should all have seen first hand what happens to players as they leave their prime.

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Big defenseman age well often. He is like Doughty, conserves his energy and picks his spots. That is why he does not have an injury record like the very shatterable Chycrun does. I am sure other teams are not happy the Kings got him. But everyone got something in the 23 arms race,

 

[Surf Nutz]

So Clarke to the AHL, I know a shocking development for a team that thinks only "McDavid types" can make the jump without AHL time, oh well at least he's 20 and not 18 or 19 like previous top prospects. Still a pretty slow cook for a #7 pick who is just a massive talent.

Hopefully he can avoid being cheapshotted next season.

They won't be trading Roy as they plan to contend next season, so I guess he is walking after next season? The Kings will really miss Matt Roy, he was one of DL's best picks as Kings GM.

Its a win win. If Clarke is solid the A, you could create a space for him befor the deadline by jettisoning a pending FA, thats Walker , Durzi and Roy. Roy should be extended as you seem to allude to.

 

[King'sPawn]

So Clarke to the AHL, I know a shocking development for a team that thinks only "McDavid types" can make the jump without AHL time, oh well at least he's 20 and not 18 or 19 like previous top prospects. Still a pretty slow cook for a #7 pick who is just a massive talent.

Hopefully he can avoid being cheapshotted next season.

They won't be trading Roy as they plan to contend next season, so I guess he is walking after next season? The Kings will really miss Matt Roy, he was one of DL's best picks as Kings GM.

Or Roy gets re-signed and Clarke stays in the AHL until there's an injury or he's waiver eligible, and management is just kicking the can of decision-making down the road.

 

[tny760]

i agree that gavrikov has the potential to be a contract that ages well. he's not super quick but he's efficient. i don't know that he commands big money but term is certainly gonna be the crux. let walker and durzi go, bring clarke up at some point.. let spence play roy out of his spot? don't think he'll have too much trouble finding work elsewhere, veteran righty that plays all situations.

 

[Herby]

Its a win win. If Clarke is solid the A, you could create a space for him befor the deadline by jettisoning a pending FA, thats Walker , Durzi and Roy. Roy should be extended as you seem to allude to.

How is Roy extended if you have Doughty, Clarke and Spence? Isn't it the goal of the organization to have a balanced defense.

RHD

Doughty
Clarke
Spence

LHD

Anderson
Gavrikov (or someone similar)
Bjornfot

Doesn't seem to leave much room for Roy beyond next season. I love Roy, I think he is a fantastic player, but if he isn't in the long term plans maybe we should move him at this years draft to recoup some draft capital and give a spot for Clarke as he is NHL ready. Either that or move him at the deadline, but teams in contention usually don't sell at the deadline, it looks like Clarke is in the AHL for this season and Roy leaves as a FA.

 

[tny760]

How is Roy extended if you have Doughty, Clarke and Spence? Isn't it the goal of the organization to have a balanced defense.

RHD

Doughty
Clarke
Spence

LHD

Anderson
Gavrikov (or someone similar)
Bjornfot

Doesn't seem to leave much room for Roy beyond next season. I love Roy, I think he is a fantastic player, but if he isn't in the long term plans maybe we should move him at this years draft to recoup some draft capital and give a spot for Clarke as he is NHL ready. Either that or move him at the deadline, but teams in contention usually don't sell at the deadline, it looks like Clarke is in the AHL for this season and Roy leaves as a FA.

i forgot about bjornfot. so many cooks in the kitchen, damn. i think you're probably smelling the most logical route there with letting clarke stew in the A though.

 

[Schmooley]

How is Roy extended if you have Doughty, Clarke and Spence? Isn't it the goal of the organization to have a balanced defense.

RHD

Doughty
Clarke
Spence

LHD

Anderson
Gavrikov (or someone similar)
Bjornfot

Doesn't seem to leave much room for Roy beyond next season. I love Roy, I think he is a fantastic player, but if he isn't in the long term plans maybe we should move him at this years draft to recoup some draft capital and give a spot for Clarke as he is NHL ready. Either that or move him at the deadline, but teams in contention usually don't sell at the deadline, it looks like Clarke is in the AHL for this season and Roy leaves as a FA.

Hypothetically if you could choose would you move Doughty instead of Roy when Clarke comes in?

 

[Schrute farms]

For the kings, I’d rather have Roy over Durzi on the roster next year. Durzi seems like the obvious draft day trade candidate.

But Herby brings up a good point that I hadn’t thought - Roy trade. Just between the two, which has more value trade wise around the league come off-season at the draft - Roy (better player imo) or Durzi (young, cheaper $ and lots of LT potential)?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

For the kings, I’d rather have Roy over Durzi on the roster next year. Durzi seems like the obvious draft day trade candidate.

But Herby brings up a good point that I hadn’t thought - Roy trade. Just between the two, which has more value trade wise around the league come off-season at the draft - Roy (better player imo) or Durzi (young, cheaper $ and lots of LT potential)?

I think you have to listen to all offers on all of them.

Stretch run and playoffs will, for better or worse, highlight some guys as well. For example, Gavrikov is looking much more expensive right now.

 

[mysterman2]

Hypothetically if you could choose would you move Doughty instead of Roy when Clarke comes in?

4 more years with an 11 million cap hit.....maybe Toronto with salary retained may make sense after next season.

 

[bmr]

I think 7-8 year deals CAN be bad, but not always. For instance, a player relying on speed and athleticism who will be in their mid-30's is going to be a worse signing than someone who relies on positioning and intelligence.

Also, the term is less worrisome when the cap number isn't as high. A 7-8 year deal for a guy who only counts $4 million against the cap is less worrisome than someone who counts $11 million against the cap.

If you can get Gavrikov at 7 or 8 years for something like $6 million, that seems a lot less upsetting, no? However, I have ZERO idea what the market will be for him so it's all relative.

Would you guys value Gavrikov > Anderson? This is going to be a tough contract because he's going to want term and max dollars. I would like to keep him in the same dollar range as Anderson. Anderson is still playing more minutes and is the younger player. I think you gotta try to get him in the $4s, even if it means adding additional term. I think the key number for me is 7 years / $30ish mill.

I'm hopeful he will take a little bit of a discount because of how well positioned this team is to win and the environment/players.

 

[Herby]

Hypothetically if you could choose would you move Doughty instead of Roy when Clarke comes in?

No. Doughty still plays to important a role on the team. He is a bit overpaid at this stage, but with the cap going up and some of the money guys get it's not by a ton.

Doughty is also basically untradeable if he doesn't want to get traded. He would give 7 teams that he knows wouldn't trade for him and even if they did him wrong and used Arizona or Columbus as a middle man, there would be very few teams who could absorb his cap hit.

I hate the Clarke in the AHL thing because Doughty is going to continue to (hopefully slowly) fall off offensively, DD has only 1 ES goal this season. It would be nice to get Clarke to the NHL level asap to help alleviate some of the offensive concerns from the back end. Playing him in the AHL is going to prevent him from learning some of the stuff that can only be learned at the NHL level. If he's not in the league regularly until 2024-2025 it's going to take some time that season to really figure things out, and then the season after that, Doughty is 36.

I would have had Clarke in the NHL this season, practicing fulltime with the team and playing 30 games with an AHL conditioning assignment and WJC mixed in. I think that would have had him more prepared for the NHL next season. But it's the Kings, the AHL is literally a requirement for everyone who's not a McDavid level prospect. Been saying it for years, happy they at least finally told us as much.

 

[Mattias]

Maybe they try to force Clarke to go to the left side.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think at some point soon they need to tell Drew to focus on defense and stop 'trying' to score, because typically that's when better things happen for him anyway. Next few years will see a transition to younger offensive dmen and Drew needs to recognize his physical tools have waned and the game's changed, he can't just fire slow-windup slappers into a crowd anymore, if he's not going to find a way to get quicker wristers through and onto King sticks, he needs to watch others until he does.

 

[Herby]

I think at some point soon they need to tell Drew to focus on defense and stop 'trying' to score, because typically that's when better things happen for him anyway. Next few years will see a transition to younger offensive dmen and Drew needs to recognize his physical tools have waned and the game's changed, he can't just fire slow-windup slappers into a crowd anymore, if he's not going to find a way to get quicker wristers through and onto King sticks, he needs to watch others until he does.

And it has to come sooner than later. Drew's offensive totals are staying afloat because of the PP, which I really don't think he is a driving force behind.

Doughty is 8th in PPP but 60th in ESP. Tied with old buddies Olli Maatta and Luke Schenn amongst others.

He can still play for awhile at a high level defensively, but the offense is really falling off. That is why I was hoping Clarke would have been fast tracked to being a locked in NHL regular next season, Spence is a quality offensive guy but not the dynamic elite talent on the back end that the team is going to need, especially if they trade Durzi, who is the Kings top scoring defender at ES.

If Doughty falls off more offensively, Durzi is traded and replaced in the lineup by Bjornfot, and Roy's goal-scoring levels back to where it has been in the past the offensive production is going to be tough to maintain, even with Spence being inserted.

 

[mysterman2]

Here is some fun stats for you....Points per 60 Minutes. Check out whose #3. Now consider hes always on the bottom lines and gets the crumbs of PP time when he does play.

 

[kings11]

Or Roy gets re-signed and Clarke stays in the AHL until there's an injury or he's waiver eligible, and management is just kicking the can of decision-making down the road.

Or Clarke plays on the left side

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Here is some fun stats for you....Points per 60 Minutes. Check out whose #3. Now consider hes always on the bottom lines and gets the crumbs of PP time when he does play.

View attachment 669631

Looks like that might be all situations. Here's the same thing at 5-on-5:

 

[Surf Nutz]

How is Roy extended if you have Doughty, Clarke and Spence? Isn't it the goal of the organization to have a balanced defense.

RHD

Doughty
Clarke
Spence

LHD

Anderson
Gavrikov (or someone similar)
Bjornfot

Doesn't seem to leave much room for Roy beyond next season. I love Roy, I think he is a fantastic player, but if he isn't in the long term plans maybe we should move him at this years draft to recoup some draft capital and give a spot for Clarke as he is NHL ready. Either that or move him at the deadline, but teams in contention usually don't sell at the deadline, it looks like Clarke is in the AHL for this season and Roy leaves as a FA.

I agree but Blake will figure it out.
Lot of injuries in hockey.
I would hate to lose any grittines, we need more.
Depth and long evaluation is a good thing to me

 

[mysterman2]

Looks like that might be all situations. Here's the same thing at 5-on-5:

View attachment 669653

Correct...its just points per TOI. Now if you consider of all forwards he gets the 4th or 5th fewest TOI on average begs the question of why he doesnt play more. He looked like an all star on the PP last night- showed some quick decision making and mad skills.

 

[Seattle King]

Here is some fun stats for you....Points per 60 Minutes. Check out whose #3. Now consider hes always on the bottom lines and gets the crumbs of PP time when he does play.

View attachment 669631

Todd is too stupid to comprehend charts like this though. The bright colors distract and confuse him.