Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

[Dr Jan Itor]

Even if everyone involved is ok with the $13 million, it should start at $13 million for 8 years and then go down from there with lower term.

But I guess he does have them in a bit of a strangle hold with the NMC.

 

[LOFIN]

Paying Matthews 13.5 is ludicrous tbh. Want to see how "out of whack" the Leafs salaries are? Which core would you rather have moving forward?

Other core
Tim Stutzle: 8.3 million (just signed long-term)
David Pastrnak: 11.25 million (just signed long-term)
Matthew Tkachuk: 9.5 million (just signed long-term)
Jack Hughes: 8 million (just signed long-term)
Andrei Svechnikov: 7.75 million (half remaining on long-term)
Total: 44.8 million

I mean you would obviously pick the other core, but it's not really comparable because aside from Pastrnak, none of those guys were as established as the Leafs players when they signed (well, Nylander was a bit rich I guess for the time). All of those deals look absolute bangers right now, but they were signed before those players finally broke through. The organizations were smart and the players "dumb" when those deals were signed.

 

[TheGoldenGod]

Wow what a team first guy

 

[Chuck Testa]

More money.

If he signs for 3 years today, he still a UFA at 29 years of age in July 2027. Then he can sign his big long term deal for big money... And he gets to do it when the salary cap is no longer flat and rapidly rising.


Think of it like this:

Option A) He signs 7x$13.5M with Toronto starting July 2024 when he's 26 turning 27. He becomes a UFA next when he's 32 turning 33 and at that age he signs a 3x$7M contract as a UFA then retires at 35/36.

Earnings over those 10 years: $115.5M

Option B) He signs 3x$13.5M with Toronto starting July 2024 when he's 26 turning 27. Becomes a UFA when he's 29 turning 30. At that age he's still a major top commodity that all teams would chase in free agency. At a $96M salary cap that year, Matthews signs a 7x$16M cap hit in free agency with Toronto or some other teams that takes him to 35/36 and then he retired.

Earnings over same 10 year period as Option A: $152.5M



The result? He makes an extra $37M in his career.

Is the bolded a certainty? Seems lately any time there's a mention about the salary cap going up it either stays put or goes up by ~1-2 million dollars. Now if the cap does go up the 96 million at some point then great. You just never know what the future holds (wars, pandemics etc.)

 

[Boxscore]

I mean you would obviously pick the other core, but it's not really comparable because aside from Pastrnak, none of those guys were as established as the Leafs players when they signed (well, Nylander was a bit rich I guess for the time). All of those deals look absolute bangers right now, but they were signed before those players finally broke through. The organizations were smart and the players "dumb" when those deals were signed.

What do you mean? Tkachuk, Pastrnak, Hughes, and Stutzle just signed 8 year deals last summer lol. Tkachuk score 104 points when he signed his. Marner signed his years ago for 10.8 and didn't sniff 104 points. Both Hughes and Stutzle showed you their progression and flashes of superstardom. Both were drafted high and were projecting properly.

 

[Golden_Jet]

What do you mean? Tkachuk, Pastrnak, Hughes, and Stutzle just signed 8 year deals last summer lol. Tkachuk score 104 points when he signed his. Marner signed his years ago for 10.8 and didn't sniff 104 points. Both Hughes and Stutzle showed you their progression and flashed of superstardom. Both were drafted high and were projecting properly.

And Stutzle’s deal doesn’t kick in until October.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

How does a team justify paying this kid that kind of money, when McD and MacK are at 12.5M?
If you think AM is a better player than those two guys you are crazy.....
Watching the leafs, there are many nights he is not even the best player on his team, let alone the league?

The market changes. McDavid isn't the measuring stick anymore, McKinnon is.

 

[Boxscore]

And Stutzle’s deal doesn’t kick in until October.

Correct. There's no way to deny, or defend, that the Leafs have absolutely caved to their players and overpaid them when it comes to contracts -- and it all started with giving Tavares the 2nd largest cap hit in NHL history (behind McDavid) as a UFA. Matthews and Marner were overpaid last time, and they will be even more overpaid this time. Ironically, Nylander was the only one who was fairly paid and may be reasonable this time around.

 

[TS Quint]

The market changes. McDavid isn't the measuring stick anymore, McKinnon is.

No. You don’t look at the $ value as the measuring stick, you look at the cap hit %.

 

[Boxscore]

McKinnon is.

Agreed. MacKinnon and Pastrnak are the measuring stick for Matthews, period. And they both signed last year for 8 years. One at 11.75 and one at 12.6. If we're being fair, Matthews should be smack dab between them for the same term -- 12.25 x 8.

As for Marner, the measuring stick is Matthew Tkachuk, and that's being generous. He just signed for 8 x 9.5. Marner shouldn't make a dollar over 10 million x 8 years on his next deal. Yes, he should be taking a pay cut, which is a testament to how overpaid he is and was.

 

[TS Quint]

Correct. There's no way to deny, or defend, that the Leafs have absolutely caved to their players and overpaid them when it comes to contracts -- and it all started with giving Tavares the 2nd largest cap hit in NHL history (behind McDavid) as a UFA. Matthews and Marner were overpaid last time, and they will be even more overpaid this time. Ironically, Nylander was the only one who was fairly paid and may be reasonable this time around.

Nylander was overpaid and undertermed like the rest Of the core Leafs. Except Tavares who was over paid and over termed for his age.

 

[Boxscore]

Nylander was overpaid and undertermed like the rest Of the core Leafs. Except Tavares who was over paid and over termed for his age.

Meh, at 6.7, Nylander was at the highest end of "fairly paid" imo. Agree that he was undertermed.

 

[LOFIN]

What do you mean? Tkachuk, Pastrnak, Hughes, and Stutzle just signed 8 year deals last summer lol. Tkachuk score 104 points when he signed his. Marner signed his years ago for 10.8 and didn't sniff 104 points. Both Hughes and Stutzle showed you their progression and flashed of superstardom. Both were drafted high and were projecting properly.

When Stuzle signed his deal (Sep 2022), he had scored at 0.65 PPG pace. Career high of 22 goals. When Hughees signed (Nov 2021), he had scored at 0.44 PPG pace. They broke out after they were signed to monster deals. Pastrnak was the exception here. Tkachuk had a great 104 point season yes, but had failed to score anywhere above PPG for the previous 5 seasons. And was close to PPG on only two of those.

My point here is this: all of these deals (aside from Pastrnak) were basically the organization betting on the player becoming a stud. Whereas with the Leafs, when Matthews and Marner signed they already had more impressive statlines and could thus demand the cash.

As for Marner, the measuring stick is Matthew Tkachuk, and that's being generous. He just signed for 8 x 9.5. Marner shouldn't make a dollar over 10 million x 8 years on his next deal. Yes, he should be taking a pay cut, which is a testament to how overpaid he is and was.

Lol. The fact that Tkachuk is severely underpaid right now because of when he signed that deal, his RFA-status, and his willingness to take a cheaper deal because he got to where he wanted, has absolutely no bearing on what Marner should get as a pending UFA free agent.

And no, he's not taking a paycut and neither should he.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

It's sad that the reports that Nylander is waiting for AM34 to take less before taking a bargain himself have been met with........crickets from the AM34 camp.
That's leadership for ya

 

[Boxscore]

Whereas with the Leafs, when Matthews and Marner signed they already had more impressive statlines and could thus demand the cash.

Yes, they demanded the cash. But they were still overpaid and undertermed. Just because they demanded the cash doesn't mean the Leafs had to cave, especially without 8 years. That's the main thing you're missing here. Yes, the teams bet on the players, but the players also committed 8 years. Just think how team-friendly all of those deals will look for those clubs in 2-3 years if the cap goes up by 5-6 million. Our players got more than they should have, especially due to the short-term nature of the deals.

 

[LOFIN]

Yes, they demanded the cash. But they were still overpaid and undertermed. Just because they demanded the cash doesn't mean the Leafs had to cave, especially without 8 years. That's the main thing you're missing here. Yes, the teams bet on the players, but the players also committed 8 years. Just think how team-friendly all of those deals will look for those clubs in 2-3 years if the cap goes up by 5-6 million. Our players got more than they should have, especially due to the short-term nature of the deals.

I don't disagree that the Leafs players got overpaid considering the market of the time. I just had gripes with the comparison to Stuzle, Hughes etc. Marner was definitely overpaid, when you look at his comparables of Rantanen, Point etc. Matthews, the cap was ok but just 5 years of it was disastrous.

 

[Golden_Jet]

When Stuzle signed his deal (Sep 2022), he had scored at 0.65 PPG pace. Career high of 22 goals. When Hughees signed (Nov 2021), he had scored at 0.44 PPG pace. They broke out after they were signed to monster deals. Pastrnak was the exception here. Tkachuk had a great 104 point season yes, but had failed to score anywhere above PPG for the previous 5 seasons. And was close to PPG on only two of those.

My point here is this: all of these deals (aside from Pastrnak) were basically the organization betting on the player becoming a stud. Whereas with the Leafs, when Matthews and Marner signed they already had more impressive statlines and could thus demand the cash.


Lol. The fact that Tkachuk is severely underpaid right now because of when he signed that deal, his RFA-status, and his willingness to take a cheaper deal because he got to where he wanted, has absolutely no bearing on what Marner should get as a pending UFA free agent.

And no, he's not taking a paycut and neither should he.

Matthew’s career high was 69 points when he signed. He did get ppg when he missed games in his second year, but that doesn’t make you the second highest player. You complained that Tkachuk only got 104 points once before signing a lesser deal.

That also sounds like the leafs betting on a stud. Your all over the map and condracting your own points.

 

[LOFIN]

Matthew’s career high was 69 points when he signed. He did get ppg when he missed games in his second year, but that doesn’t make you the second highest player. You complained that Tkachuk only got 104 points once before signing a lesser deal.

That also sounds like the leafs betting on a stud. Your all over the map and condracting your own points.

- Like you said, Matthews was pacing for over PPG and 40 goals without his injuries
- He's a centre
- He had an internal comparable of Tavares. Everybody knew he was going to be better than Tavares immediately after signing, so he had to get more than him.

The root to all of Torontos cap problems is John Tavares frankly.

 

[nhlfan9191]

The market changes. McDavid isn't the measuring stick anymore, McKinnon is.

You’re getting 5 more years with Mackinnon and he got paid $1 million less then what Matthews wants. How do rationalize giving Matthews that kind of contract? It’s just a selfish ask.

 

[notbias]

which looks more like leadership?

View attachment 732600

View attachment 732601

AB + MT @ 19.5 AAV until 2030

AM + MM @ 25.4 AAV until 2025

AM is many good things. a leader he is not.

Neither? Leadership is taking league min.

Barkov has also won 0 cups.

So has Tkachuk.

Their leadership is not working.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Neither? Leadership is taking league min.

Barkov has also won 0 cups.

So has Tkachuk.

Their leadership is not working.

So why does nobody clown on Tkachuk and Barkov for being playoff failures with no heart like everybody does for AM and Mitchy boy

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The root to all of Torontos cap problems is John Tavares frankly.

I said this the moment he signed. Apparently it's only these many years later that Leaf fans are no longer pushing back on that.

 

[Strangle]

Tough question. As a fan, who isn't being paid millions of dollars to make the best of hard decisions, I'd love to say, "just trade him" but it's not that easy. If I were Treliving, I'd be asking myself these questions:

1. What is the max number (and least term) I feel we could pay Auston without being forced to move a key contributor like Willie or Mitch?

2. How would conceding to Matthews impact requests from Nylander and Marner? Knowing if they don't both cave, one or both would likely be cap casualties.

3. How would the team fare if Matthews ended up the only superstar and I had to surround him with depth instead of multiple high-end pieces?

4. Is Auston Matthews the type of person, leader, or personality who will sacrifice, scratch, claw, and bleed for a Cup? If he won't even sacrifice a few bucks, is he willing to sacrifice his health, quality of life, or mental discomfort to battle for Cups?

My quick answers to those questions are:

1. 13.25 x 6. Max.
2. Nylander may need to be traded immediately. If not, Marner will be this time next year.
3. Recipe for disaster. We saw this with Sundin for years.
4. If Matthews isn't willing to budge and give us a hometown discount, then I am convinced he's selfish, spoiled, and not the kind of leader who will sacrifice when the playoffs become nasty.

Then I would go to the MLSE board and tell them my thoughts and ask which they prioritize more: star power and gate receipts or a shot at winning a Cup?

Based on the answers from my bosses, I'd maneuver accordingly.

The only thing you can really do at this point is hold firm that there is trade possibilities in his new contract.

And kick that can as far down the road as you can.

There is no way the Leafs can let Matthews walk for nothing, that’s the last thing they should be allowing to happen.

If the team can’t keep their other stars because of the cap, then you need to have the option to trade Matthews instead, if it ever were to come to that.

Of course, it’s happened before. We know very well that’s what happened with Tavares.

 

[PainForShane]

- Like you said, Matthews was pacing for over PPG and 40 goals without his injuries
- He's a centre
- He had an internal comparable of Tavares. Everybody knew he was going to be better than Tavares immediately after signing, so he had to get more than him.

The root to all of Torontos cap problems is John Tavares frankly.

Nah man. The root of all of Toronto's cap problems is Kyle Dubas

 

[hamzarocks]

I said this the moment he signed. Apparently it's only these many years later that Leaf fans are no longer pushing back on that.

People thought JT could be a 90-100 pt elite 1C who would be as good as Matthews

Dude didnt get that level depsite higher end talent. This year he was just way to invisible at EVS

We also expected a ppg player come playoffs.

Tavares has 22 pts in 31 playoff games or a 58 pt player lool.

Marner, Matthews and Nylander have all been close enough since 2018-2019 to their contracts in the reg season but have seen fall offs come playoffs.

JT isnt good enough in the reg season and falls super hard in the playoffs.