Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

[hockey20000]

13.5million for 3 years is laughable the leafs need to just move on from these guys marner and matthews are not gonna win a cup there they only care about there own pockets.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

This also could be one of those "leak a crazy high number to the press so that when the real deal comes in slightly under people respond favorably"

 

[Golden_Jet]

says one person who doesn't want to pay the greatest player in the NHL today...McDavid...20 million dollars to make him stay with their team. And wants to go balanced salary, as if somehow that is a clearly better solution.

Yes, McDavid is worth the max allowable, every time he reaches renegotiation time. So is Draisatl. So is Matthews, and a bunch of other players, because without them, the odds of winning plummet. NHL is top-heavy salary to a huge degree, and trending heavier, and bucking that trend for the few players you have the ability, or affinity, to sign is simply an unproven approach. Sign the best you can for the $$ you have, and pay the rest peanuts. And fiddle with it for the next 5-6-7-8 years, depending on what your stars signed for. If you can hornswoggle the best players into taking even 5%, or 10%!, less of their max contract...those are the only meaningful margins available for capable GMs to attempt.

And the rest is just luck, as the term on your highest paid signings play out, and the GM massages the cap margins, the injuries, the market, whatever. But at no point is not signing the best available players to their deals a better path.

It is brutal, and dumb, and inescapable. And any team that forgoes it's opportunity to retain a max-type player forfeits a lot, and would need to have some serious backup strategy in mind to recover, which would probably involve a lot of other team's dominoes that they simply cannot count on in a fair market.

Can’t pay him 20 million, says the CBA.

 

[Luck 6]

How many points did Pettersson get in the playoffs. Oh wait….


Exactly.

l keep waiting for this supposed Pettersson greatness.

Well, Pettersson and the Canucks only made it the one time so far, but Pettersson did put up 18 points in 17 GP. He's also coming off a 102 point season where he came in 7th in Selke voting. He's definitely in that elite upper tier, so I'm not really sure why he's getting hated on here.

Regarding Matthews, 13.5 MIL seems a bit over the top to me. This is especially true because this guy is going to set the bar for all other star players in Toronto, if he maximizes his earnings, why wouldn't they? If Matthews takes a bit of a discount, then I bet you Toronto management will be in a much stronger position to request that of their other star players when negotiating their extensions. I would think taking Mackinnon money should be kind of the cap, and I think that would represent a bit of a discount.

 

[jfhabs]

13.5M ouuffff that's too much for him. He's not even a top 10 player in the league...

 

[Martin Skoula]

How does a team justify paying this kid that kind of money, when McD and MacK are at 12.5M?
If you think AM is a better player than those two guys you are crazy.....
Watching the leafs, there are many nights he is not even the best player on his team, let alone the league?

Watching the Avs and Oilers, there are many nights where Makar/Rantanen and Drai are the best player on their team. MacK and McD have off nights or other players have good nights, what’s wrong with that?

 

[BLONG7]

Watching the Avs and Oilers, there are many nights where Makar/Rantanen and Drai are the best player on their team. MacK and McD have off nights or other players have good nights, what’s wrong with that?

At this point though, none of those players are asking for more money.......it sounds like AM wants more money??

 

[kevsh]

13.5M ouuffff that's too much for him. He's not even a top 10 player in the league...

From February of this year, while he was going through probably his least impressive season statistically:

McDavid, then who? Players, coaches, execs vote for NHL's top centers

The Oilers captain is a clear-cut No. 1 -- and then the debates begin. Here are the top 10 pivots in the league right now.

www.espn.com

Of course this poll was limited to centers, but it's hard to argue that the #2 center as voted by NHL execs/players is not in the top 10 overall.

But I do agree that $13.5M is steep. If a longer term, fine as it's certain that salaries for top players are going to eclipse that number within a few years. But on a 4 or less year term, not a great number.

 

[PainForShane]

You are just saying things.

Top NHL players in high tax markets get 14-15% of the cap regardless of performance.
That’s what Kane and toews and karlson got.

In order to prove this you would have to show that there is a tangible difference between the salaries of players who had more playoff success. There is no proof of this.

Seth Jones. Werenski. Drai/Mcdavid when they signed, barkov, huberdeau, tkachuks when they signed.

Hill got half what sorokin got. Hill won a cup.


There is just no evidence of what you are saying. Regular season counting stats and trophies are way more predictive of AAV then playoff success.

Barbashev didn’t get 10 million. Marchy isn’t going to get Mcdavid money.

To use your own example, would Adin Hill have gotten even close to 4.9m on a multi-year deal if Vegas hadn't won the cup. Of course not, before this year's playoffs Adin Hill was a fringe NHLer (maybe he still is), he's barely played 100 NHL regular season games in his entire career.

Please show me (and everyone else) another goalie who is not especially young nor a top prospect, has never played more than 30 reg season games in a year, and is getting paid almost 5m a year on a multiyear deal.

Assuming you can't (because you can't), that means strong playoff performances do affect player salaries / AAV. Which is obvious. To everyone.

Thanks.

***

P.S. And also, obviously no one is saying (or believes) Barbashev deserves 10 million or Marchy deserves McDavid money. So who is the one "just saying things," it certainly isn't me.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

It must feel pretty good for the other Leafs that have to take less money or be traded so that AM can get over 13M.

 

[Legion34]

To use your own example, would Adin Hill have gotten even close to 4.9m on a multi-year deal if Vegas hadn't won the cup. Of course not, before this year's playoffs Adin Hill was a fringe NHLer (maybe he still is), he's barely played 100 NHL regular season games in his entire career.

Please show me (and everyone else) another goalie who is not especially young nor a top prospect, has never played more than 30 reg season games in a year, and is getting paid almost 5m a year on a multiyear deal.

Assuming you can't (because you can't), that means strong playoff performances do affect player salaries / AAV. Which is obvious. To everyone.

Thanks.

***

P.S. And also, obviously no one is saying (or believes) Barbashev deserves 10 million or Marchy deserves McDavid money. So who is the one "just saying things," it certainly isn't me.

Cal Peterson. Merzlikins etc.

Regular season success is far more determinant of top salaries than playoffs.

It’s completely indisputable.

There are always some who get slightly overpaid for intangibles. Look at Perry foligno this year in the lower market.

But top players get paid regardless of playoff success.

Many top young players are getting 8 million and never even played a platoff game.

 

[Boxscore]

Paying Matthews 13.5 is ludicrous tbh. Want to see how "out of whack" the Leafs salaries are? Which core would you rather have moving forward?

Leafs Core
Auston Matthews: 13.5 million (3-5 year deal)
William Nylander: 9 million (5-6 year deal)
Mitch Marner: 10.9 million (ready for new deal)
John Tavares: 11 million
Total: 44.4 million

vs.

Other core
Tim Stutzle: 8.3 million (just signed long-term)
David Pastrnak: 11.25 million (just signed long-term)
Matthew Tkachuk: 9.5 million (just signed long-term)
Jack Hughes: 8 million (just signed long-term)
Andrei Svechnikov: 7.75 million (half remaining on long-term)
Total: 44.8 million

Paying Matthews 13.5 on a short-term deal, plus the domino effect, will ensure the Leafs don't win a Cup while he's here.

 

[Mr Bill Waters]

Paying Matthews 13.5 is ludicrous tbh. Want to see how "out of whack" the Leafs salaries are? Which core would you rather have moving forward?

Leafs Core
Auston Matthews: 13.5 million (3-5 year deal)
William Nylander: 9 million (5-6 year deal)
Mitch Marner: 10.9 million (ready for new deal)
John Tavares: 11 million
Total: 44.4 million

vs.

Other core
Tim Stutzle: 8.3 million (just signed long-term)
David Pastrnak: 11.25 million (just signed long-term)
Matthew Tkachuk: 9.5 million (just signed long-term)
Jack Hughes: 8 million (just signed long-term)
Andrei Svechnikov: 7.75 million (half remaining on long-term)
Total: 44.8 million

Paying Matthews 13.5 on a short-term deal, plus the domino effect, will ensure the Leafs don't win a Cup while he's here.

You have to remember the cap is going up - alot. He will want 13.5x3 and Tre will want 13.5x5.
They will settle at 13.5x4 - fair market price which will look sweeter if he returns to MVP calibur seasons - and that's not out of the relm of possibility since he just entered his prime.

 

[notbias]

Paying Matthews 13.5 is ludicrous tbh. Want to see how "out of whack" the Leafs salaries are? Which core would you rather have moving forward?

Leafs Core
Auston Matthews: 13.5 million (3-5 year deal)
William Nylander: 9 million (5-6 year deal)
Mitch Marner: 10.9 million (ready for new deal)
John Tavares: 11 million
Total: 44.4 million

vs.

Other core
Tim Stutzle: 8.3 million (just signed long-term)
David Pastrnak: 11.25 million (just signed long-term)
Matthew Tkachuk: 9.5 million (just signed long-term)
Jack Hughes: 8 million (just signed long-term)
Andrei Svechnikov: 7.75 million (half remaining on long-term)
Total: 44.8 million

Paying Matthews 13.5 on a short-term deal, plus the domino effect, will ensure the Leafs don't win a Cup while he's here.

not sure any of the guys you listed are going to win a cup either, so not sure what that is proving.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Paying Matthews 13.5 is ludicrous tbh. Want to see how "out of whack" the Leafs salaries are? Which core would you rather have moving forward?

Leafs Core
Auston Matthews: 13.5 million (3-5 year deal)
William Nylander: 9 million (5-6 year deal)
Mitch Marner: 10.9 million (ready for new deal)
John Tavares: 11 million
Total: 44.4 million

vs.

Other core
Tim Stutzle: 8.3 million (just signed long-term)
David Pastrnak: 11.25 million (just signed long-term)
Matthew Tkachuk: 9.5 million (just signed long-term)
Jack Hughes: 8 million (just signed long-term)
Andrei Svechnikov: 7.75 million (half remaining on long-term)
Total: 44.8 million

Paying Matthews 13.5 on a short-term deal, plus the domino effect, will ensure the Leafs don't win a Cup while he's here.

Agree with your last sentence. With that said, I'm not sure why it's relevant to compare the Leaf's core vs. 5 players from different teams who have some of the best contracts in the league? Are the Leafs trying to beat an all-star team?

Earlier in the thread, I caught heat for daring to compare AM to another #1C in Brayden Point. I get that AM has scored 60 goals, and won the Hart, which I consider to be at least partially to be a media popularity contest. When they're healthy though, I would expect them to produce similar offense numbers, and they're both very good defensively. If the contract rumors are true, AM is going to make 40% more, which is enough that the Lightning get to also have a couple legit NHL'ers on the roster instead of a guy making the league minimum. That makes a huge difference, and why I agree with your last sentence.

 

[Golden_Jet]

not sure any of the guys you listed are going to win a cup either, so not sure what that is proving.

Well if you don’t think Matthew’s will win a cup, then maybe should move him.

 

[BB88]

How does a team justify paying this kid that kind of money, when McD and MacK are at 12.5M?
If you think AM is a better player than those two guys you are crazy.....
Watching the leafs, there are many nights he is not even the best player on his team, let alone the league?

McDavids contract is too old to mean anything relating Matthews next contract.

But Mackinnons contract should be where Matthews lands on 8 year deal and under that with 5 or less. Will never happen though

 

[PainForShane]

Cal Peterson. Merzlikins etc.

Regular season success is far more determinant of top salaries than playoffs.

It’s completely indisputable.

There are always some who get slightly overpaid for intangibles. Look at Perry foligno this year in the lower market.

But top players get paid regardless of playoff success.

Many top young players are getting 8 million and never even played a platoff game.

Cal and Elvis were both clearly regarded as their team's future starters when they signed those deals. Their teams viewed them as top prospects / young players. On the other hand, Adin Hill was on his 3rd team in three years and probably not even on Vegas' long term depth chart when 2023 playoffs started, he was barely a backup goalie in the NHL. Clearly in Adin Hill's case, playoff performance is what got him paid.

But, like you said, obviously regular season success is far more determinant of top salaries (and salaries in general) than playoffs. No one is or ever was arguing this.

And also like you said, top players get paid regardless of playoff success. No one is or ever was arguing this either. It's also true many top young players are making 8m+... and no one is or ever was arguing this either.

***

What I am / have been arguing (and is obvious) is that players tend to get paid more if they have playoff success. Because playoff success is considered one of those intangibles you mentioned in your post above. This explains a few things, incl why a 38 year old Perry still continues to get contracts in this league (it's because he always raises his game in the playoffs), how MacK became the highest paid player in the world (role in cup run), why Adin Hill's deal was at least a couple mil higher than it should have been solely based on his regular season track record (obviously because he's a cup winning starter) etc etc.

***

No one knows why you've been going out of your way to argue against this basic idea for multiple posts. To use your own insult, you are just saying things.

Thx

 

[notbias]

Well if you don’t think Matthew’s will win a cup, then maybe should move him.

I didn't say that.

 

[DueDiligence]

At this point though, none of those players are asking for more money.......it sounds like AM wants more money??

Their contracts aren't coming due but Matthews is.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I didn't say that.

He’s one of the listed players.
As to the 13.5 number, only way he should get that is for 8 years.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Honestly i am fine if the contract is 13.5 by 6 to 8 years.

The tricky part is how do you do 13.5 for 3 or 4 years meanwhile McKinnon signed for 12.6 for 8 years.

 

[drktmplr12]

which looks more like leadership?

AB + MT @ 19.5 AAV until 2030

AM + MM @ 25.4 AAV until 2025

AM is many good things. a leader he is not.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

which looks more like leadership?

View attachment 732600

View attachment 732601

AB + MT @ 19.5 AAV until 2030

AM + MM @ 25.4 AAV until 2025

AM is many good things. a leader he is not.

If Tkachuk took a 1 year deal I wouldn't be shocked if that last year wouldn't have net him a 11 million a year.

Also taxes are different

 

[Maple Leaf]

too much $